Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Strategy for the development of investment decision-making framework for road asset management for queensland department of main roads

The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.

Final Report

This project aims to assess the extent of economic sustainability of working in international markets by Australian construction design-related firms. This investigation also identified barriers and success factors firms experience, which ultimately increases or reduces their exposure to financial risk. This study explored new research territory by developing a detailed understanding of the way three successful firms have maintained their longevity in various international markets. The firms are not considered to be large firms by international standards. The manner in which the firms achieve long term sustainability, deal with problems and barriers in international markets and develop successful strategies rely upon being adaptable to different markets and changes within markets. A model was developed based upon a critical analysis of the literature. An adaptive performance framework for sustainability was developed which had three key areas; internationalisation process, market knowledge and design management. The sustainable business model is underpinned by the management of non-economic factors, which include social, cultural and intellectual capital. The ultimate aim of any firm and the ultimate indicator of success is financial capital. Firms typically develop their own highly sophisticated financial measures themselves however have only an implicit understanding of other softer and less tangible factors that impact upon sustainability. Adaptive performance is the firm’s continual adaptivity of business practices to respond to and thereby achieve client satisfaction by a combination of self, market and project needs assessment.

Long term sustainability in exporting creativity

This project aims to assess the extent of economic sustainability of working in international markets by Australian construction design-related firms. This investigation also identified barriers and success factors firms experience, which ultimately increases or reduces their exposure to financial risk. This study explored new research territory by developing a detailed understanding of the way three successful firms have maintained their longevity in various international markets. The firms are not considered to be large firms by international standards. The manner in which the firms achieve long term sustainability, deal with problems and barriers in international markets and develop successful strategies rely upon being adaptable to different markets and changes within markets. A model was developed based upon a critical analysis of the literature. An adaptive performance framework for sustainability was developed which had three key areas; internationalisation process, market knowledge and design management. The sustainable business model is underpinned by the management of non-economic factors, which include social, cultural and intellectual capital. The ultimate aim of any firm and the ultimate indicator of success is financial capital. Firms typically develop their own highly sophisticated financial measures themselves however have only an implicit understanding of other softer and less tangible factors that impact upon sustainability. Adaptive performance is the firm’s continual adaptivity of business practices to respond to and thereby achieve client satisfaction by a combination of self, market and project needs assessment.

A framework for predicting the residual load carrying capacity of concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments

Reinforced concrete structures are susceptible to a variety of deterioration mechanisms due to creep and shrinkage, alkali-silica reaction (ASR), carbonation, and corrosion of the reinforcement. The deterioration problems can affect the integrity and load carrying capacity of the structure. Substantial research has been dedicated to these various mechanisms aiming to identify the causes, reactions, accelerants, retardants and consequences. This has improved our understanding of the long-term behaviour of reinforced concrete structures. However, the strengthening of reinforced concrete structures for durability has to date been mainly undertaken after expert assessment of field data followed by the development of a scheme to both terminate continuing degradation, by separating the structure from the environment, and strengthening the structure. The process does not include any significant consideration of the residual load-bearing capacity of the structure and the highly variable nature of estimates of such remaining capacity. Development of performance curves for deteriorating bridge structures has not been attempted due to the difficulty in developing a model when the input parameters have an extremely large variability. This paper presents a framework developed for an asset management system which assesses residual capacity and identifies the most appropriate rehabilitation method for a given reinforced concrete structure exposed to aggressive environments. In developing the framework, several industry consultation sessions have been conducted to identify input data required, research methodology and output knowledge base. Capturing expert opinion in a useable knowledge base requires development of a rule based formulation, which can subsequently be used to model the reliability of the performance curve of a reinforced concrete structure exposed to a given environment.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Towards a building sustainability assessment framework

This paper provides an overview of a new framework for a design stage Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) tool and a discussion of strategic responses to existing tool issues and relative stakeholder requirements that lead to the development of this tool founded on new information and communication technology (ICT) related to developments in 3D CAD technology. After introducing the context of the BEA and some of their team’s new work the authors • Critique current BEA tool theory; • Review previous assessments of stakeholder needs; • Introduce a new framework applied to analyse such tools • Highlight and key results considering illustrative ICT capabilities and • Discuss their potential significance upon BEA tool stakeholders.

Redefining life cycle for a building sustainability assessment framework

Understanding the differences between the temporal and physical aspects of the building life cycle is an essential ingredient in the development of Building Environmental Assessment (BEA) tools. This paper illustrates a theoretical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework aligning temporal decision-making with that of material flows over building development phases. It was derived during development of a prototype commercial building design tool that was based on a 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform and LCA software. The framework aligns stakeholder BEA needs and the decision-making process against characteristics of leading green building tools. The paper explores related integration of BEA tool development applications on such ICT platforms. Key framework modules are depicted and practical examples for BEA are provided for: • Definition of investment and service goals at project initiation; • Design integrated to avoid overlaps/confusion over the project life cycle; • Detailing the supply chain considering building life cycle impacts; • Delivery of quality metrics for occupancy post-construction/handover; • Deconstruction profiling at end of life to facilitate recovery.

FM as a Business Enabler

As a functioning performing arts centre, commercial enterprise, tourist attraction and major national asset, Sydney Opera House must continue to demonstrate the optimal use and effectiveness of its facilities management (FM) to provide value for its stakeholders. To better achieve this, the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation focussed on the following three themes for investigation in the FM Exemplar Project — Sydney Opera House: digital modelling — developing a building information model capable of integrating information from disparate software systems and hard copy, and combining this with a spatial 3D computeraided design (CAD)/geographic information system (GIS) platform. This model offers a visual representation of the building and its component elements in 3D, and provides comprehensive information on each element. The model can work collaboratively through an open data exchange standard (common to all compliant software) in order to mine the data required to further FM objectives (such as maintenance) more efficiently and effectively. services procurement — developing a multi-criteria performance-based procurement framework aligned with organisational objectives for FM service delivery performance benchmarking — developing an FM benchmarking framework that enables facilities/ organisations to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) to identify better practice and improvement strategies. These three research stream outcomes were then aligned within the broader context of Sydney Opera House’s Total Asset Management (TAM) Plan and Strategic Asset Maintenance (SAM) Plan in arriving at a business framework aligned with, and in support of, organisational objectives. The Sydney Opera House is managed by the Sydney Opera House Trust on behalf of the Government of the State of New South Wales. Within the framework of the TAM Plan prepared in accordance with NSW Treasury Guidelines, the assimilation of these three themes provides an integrated FM solution capable of supporting Sydney Opera House’s business objectives and functional requirements. FM as a business enabler showcases innovative methods in improving FM performance, a better alignment of service and performance objectives and provides a better-practice model to support the business enterprise.

Combination strategies for a factor analysis phone-conditioned speaker verification system

This work aims to take advantage of recent developments in joint factor analysis (JFA) in the context of a phonetically conditioned GMM speaker verification system. Previous work has shown performance advantages through phonetic conditioning, but this has not been shown to date with the JFA framework. Our focus is particularly on strategies for combining the phone-conditioned systems. We show that the classic fusion of the scores is suboptimal when using multiple GMM systems. We investigate several combination strategies in the model space, and demonstrate improvement over score-level combination as well as over a non-phonetic baseline system. This work was conducted during the 2008 CLSP Workshop at Johns Hopkins University.

A study of Chinese private passenger cars based on BP neural network

This study employs BP neural network to simulate the development of Chinese private passenger cars. Considering the uncertain and complex environment for the development of private passenger cars, indicators of economy, population, price, infrastructure, income, energy and some other fields which have major impacts on it are selected at first. The network is proved to be operable to simulate the progress of chinese private passenger cars after modeling, training and generalization test. Based on the BP neural network model, sensitivity analysis of each indicator is carried on and shows that the sensitivity coefficients of fuel price change suddenly. This special phenomenon reveals that the development of Chinese private passenger cars may be seriously affected by the recent high fuel price. This finding is also consistent with facts and figures

The information systems discipline in Australian universities : a contextual framework

This chapter presents the contextual framework for the second phase of a multi-method, multiple study of the information systems (IS) academic discipline in Australia. The chapter outlines the genesis of a two-phase Australian study, and positions the study as the precursor to a larger Pacific-Asia study. Analysis of existing literature on the state of IS and on relevant theory underpins a series of individual Australian state case studies summarised in this chapter and represented as separate chapters in the book. This chapter outlines the methodological approach employed, with emphasis on the case-study method of the multiple state studies. The process of multiple peer review of the studies is described. Importantly, this chapter summarises and analyses each of the subsequent chapters of this book, emphasising the role of a framework developed to guide much of the data gathering and analysis. This chapter also highlights the process involved in conducting the meta-analysis reported in the final chapter of this book, and summarises some of the main results of the meta-analysis.