Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

R functions for quantifying nonindependence in standard dyadic and SRM designs

Interdependence is the main feature of dyadic relationships and, in recent years, various statistical procedures have been proposed for quantifying and testing this social attribute in different dyadic designs. The purpose of this paper is to develop several functions for this kind of statistical tests in an R package, known as nonindependence, for use by applied social researchers. A Graphical User Interface (GUI) is also developed to facilitate the use of the functions included in this package. Examples drawn from psychological research and simulated data are used to illustrate how the software works.

Comparing 'visual' effect size indices for single-case designs

Effect size indices are indispensable for carrying out meta-analyses and can also be seen as an alternative for making decisions about the effectiveness of a treatment in an individual applied study. The desirable features of the procedures for quantifying the magnitude of intervention effect include educational/clinical meaningfulness, calculus easiness, insensitivity to autocorrelation, low false alarm and low miss rates. Three effect size indices related to visual analysis are compared according to the aforementioned criteria. The comparison is made by means of data sets with known parameters: degree of serial dependence, presence or absence of general trend, changes in level and/or in slope. The percent of nonoverlapping data showed the highest discrimination between data sets with and without intervention effect. In cases when autocorrelation or trend is present, the percentage of data points exceeding the median may be a better option to quantify the effectiveness of a psychological treatment.

Factors affecting visual analysis in single-case designs

Visual inspection remains the most frequently applied method for detecting treatment effects in single-case designs. The advantages and limitations of visual inference are here discussed in relation to other procedures for assessing intervention effectiveness. The first part of the paper reviews previous research on visual analysis, paying special attention to the validation of visual analysts" decisions, inter-judge agreement, and false alarm and omission rates. The most relevant factors affecting visual inspection (i.e., effect size, autocorrelation, data variability, and analysts" expertise) are highlighted and incorporated into an empirical simulation study with the aim of providing further evidence about the reliability of visual analysis. Our results concur with previous studies that have reported the relationship between serial dependence and increased Type I rates. Participants with greater experience appeared to be more conservative and used more consistent criteria when assessing graphed data. Nonetheless, the decisions made by both professionals and students did not match sufficiently the simulated data features, and we also found low intra-judge agreement, thus suggesting that visual inspection should be complemented by other methods when assessing treatment effectiveness.

Estimating slope and level change in N=1 designs

The current study proposes a new procedure for separately estimating slope change and level change between two adjacent phases in single-case designs. The procedure eliminates baseline trend from the whole data series prior to assessing treatment effectiveness. The steps necessary to obtain the estimates are presented in detail, explained, and illustrated. A simulation study is carried out to explore the bias and precision of the estimators and compare them to an analytical procedure matching the data simulation model. The experimental conditions include two data generation models, several degrees of serial dependence, trend, level and/or slope change. The results suggest that the level and slope change estimates provided by the procedure are unbiased for all levels of serial dependence tested and trend is effectively controlled for. The efficiency of the slope change estimator is acceptable, whereas the variance of the level change estimator may be problematic for highly negatively autocorrelated data series.

Superpave Mix Designs for Low Volume Roads, Construction Report, TR-414, 2001

Most research current to the time of these projects was focused on use of Superpave mix designs on higher volume roads. Low volume roads have different requirements in terms of mix design, aggregate types, aggregate sources and project budgets. The purpose of this research was to determine if the Superpave mix design strategy for low volume roads was practical and economical. Eight projects were selected in five counties. The projects were completed in the summer of 1998. Performance evaluation of the resulting pavements was carried out annually. There was no significant increase in costs related to the use of Superpave. Nor were there any significant construction issues. There were some differences noted in placement and compaction in the field, but these were not serious.

Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities on the Turan Block (Central Asia)

Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.

How important are interview methods and questionnaire designs in research on self-reported juvenile delinquency? An experimental comparison of internet vs. paper-and-pencil questionnaires and different definitions of the reference period

There has been relatively little change over recent decades in the methods used in research on self-reported delinquency. Face-to-face interviews and selfadministered interviews in the classroom are still the predominant alternatives envisaged. New methods have been brought into the picture by recent computer technology, the Internet, and an increasing availability of computer equipment and Internet access in schools. In the autumn of 2004, a controlled experiment was conducted with 1,203 students in Lausanne (Switzerland), where "paper-and-pencil" questionnaires were compared with computer-assisted interviews through the Internet. The experiment included a test of two different definitions of the (same) reference period. After the introductory question ("Did you ever..."), students were asked how many times they had done it (or experienced it), if ever, "over the last 12 months" or "since the October 2003 vacation". Few significant differences were found between the results obtained by the two methods and for the two definitions of the reference period, in the answers concerning victimisation, self-reported delinquency, drug use, failure to respond (missing data). Students were found to be more motivated to respond through the Internet, take less time for filling out the questionnaire, and were apparently more confident of privacy, while the school principals were less reluctant to allow classes to be interviewed through the Internet. The Internet method also involves considerable cost reductions, which is a critical advantage if self-reported delinquency surveys are to become a routinely applied method of evaluation, particularly so in countries with limited resources. On balance, the Internet may be instrumental in making research on self-reported delinquency far more feasible in situations where limited resources so far have prevented its implementation.

Audit report on the Community Development Block Grants program for the City of Bedford, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2014

Audit report on the Community Development Block Grants program for the City of Bedford, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2014

Stereoselective block of hERG channel by (S)-methadone and QT interval prolongation in CYP2B6 slow metabolizers.

Methadone inhibits the cardiac potassium channel hERG and can cause a prolonged QT interval. Methadone is chiral but its therapeutic activity is mainly due to (R)-methadone. Whole-cell patch-clamp experiments using cells expressing hERG showed that (S)-methadone blocked the hERG current 3.5-fold more potently than (R)-methadone (IC50s (half-maximal inhibitory concentrations) at 37 degrees C: 2 and 7 microM). As CYP2B6 slow metabolizer (SM) status results in a reduced ability to metabolize (S)-methadone, electrocardiograms, CYP2B6 genotypes, and (R)- and (S)-methadone plasma concentrations were obtained for 179 patients receiving (R,S)-methadone. The mean heart-rate-corrected QT (QTc) was higher in CYP2B6 SMs (*6/*6 genotype; 439+/-25 ms; n=11) than in extensive metabolizers (non *6/*6; 421+/-25 ms; n=168; P=0.017). CYP2B6 SM status was associated with an increased risk of prolonged QTc (odds ratio=4.5, 95% confidence interval=1.2-17.7; P=0.03). This study reports the first genetic factor implicated in methadone metabolism that may increase the risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. This risk could be reduced by the administration of (R)-methadone.

Development of Self-Cleaning Box Culvert Designs, TR-545, 2009

The main function of a roadway culvert is to effectively convey drainage flow during normal and extreme hydrologic conditions. This function is often impaired due to the sedimentation blockage of the culvert. This research sought to understand the mechanics of sedimentation process at multi-box culverts, and develop self-cleaning systems that flush out sediment deposits using the power of drainage flows. The research entailed field observations, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulations. The specific role of each of these investigative tools is summarized below: a) The field observations were aimed at understanding typical sedimentation patterns and their dependence on culvert geometry and hydrodynamic conditions during normal and extreme hydrologic events. b) The laboratory experiments were used for modeling sedimentation process observed insitu and for testing alternative self-cleaning concepts applied to culverts. The major tasks for the initial laboratory model study were to accurately replicate the culvert performance curves and the dynamics of sedimentation process, and to provide benchmark data for numerical simulation validation. c) The numerical simulations enhanced the understanding of the sedimentation processes and aided in testing flow cases complementary to those conducted in the model reducing the number of (more expensive) tests to be conducted in the laboratory. Using the findings acquired from the laboratory and simulation works, self-cleaning culvert concepts were developed and tested for a range of flow conditions. The screening of the alternative concepts was made through experimental studies in a 1:20 scale model guided by numerical simulations. To ensure the designs are effective, performance studies were finally conducted in a 1:20 hydraulic model using the most promising design alternatives to make sure that the proposed systems operate satisfactory under closer to natural scale conditions.

Bloc atrioventriculaire complet sur borréliose de Lyme: aspects etectrocardiographiques, diagnostiques et microbiologiques [Atrioventricular heart block in Lyme disease]

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and in the United States. In comparison to dermatological, neurological and rheumatological manifestations, heart disease is quite rare. Atrioventricular heart block is nevertheless the most frequent cardiological manifestation. We hereby report the case of a patient with high degree heart block due to Lyme disease. We focus on the electrocardiographical evolution during antibiotic therapy, as well as on microbiological and diagnostic aspects. Lyme disease is a rare cause of conduction disturbances but it is treatable and potentially reversible.

Superpave Mix Designs for Low-Volume Roads, TR-414, Final Report, 2004

Most research current to the time of these projects was focused on use of Superpave mix designs on higher volume roads. Low volume roads have different requirements in terms of mix design, aggregate types, aggregate sources and project budgets. The purpose of this research was to determine if the Superpave mix design strategy for low volume roads was practical and economical. Eight projects were selected in five counties. The projects were completed in the summer of 1998. Performance evaluation of the resulting pavements was carried out annually. There was no significant increase in costs related to the use of Superpave. Nor were there any significant construction issues. There were some differences noted in placement and compaction in the field, but these were not serious.

Maternal and Child Health Services Title V Block Grant State Narrative for Iowa Application for 2015 Annual Report for 2013, September 21, 2014

Key factors that provide context for the state's Maternal and Child Health (MCH) annual report and state plan are highlighted in this overview. This section briefly outlines Iowa's demographics, population changes, economic indicators and significant public initiatives. Major strategic planning efforts affecting development of program activities are also identified.