Sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon asiantuntijoiden palveluprosessien mallintaminen osana vastaanottotoiminnan kehittämistä

Diplomityön tavoitteena on soveltaa perinteisesti teollisesta tuotannosta lähtöisin olevia prosessijohtamisen menetelmiä sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon vastaanottotoiminnan kehittämiseen. Tarkoituksena on asiantuntijapalveluprosessien mallintamisen avulla kartoittaa prosessien nykytilaa tunnistamalla ongelma- ja kehittämiskohteita, joiden ratkaisemiseksi annettavien kehittämistoimenpide-ehdotusten muodostamisessa sovelletaan prosessijohtamisen menetelmien periaatteita. Tutkimuksen teoreettisen viitekehyksen mukaisesti tarkastellaan mm. prosessien mallintamista, eli kuvaamista ja analysointia, sekä sosiaali- ja terveydenhuoltoa palvelutuotantona. Tutkimuksessa hyödynnetään sekä kvalitatiivisia että kvantitatiivisia menetelmiä, ja tutkimusaineistoa kerätään haastattelujen, havainnoinnin ja tilastojen avulla. Asiantuntijoiden palveluprosesseista laaditaan aineiston perusteella kuvaukset, ja tunnistetaan prosesseihin tai laajemminkin sosiaali- ja terveydenhuolto-organisaatioon liittyviä ongelma- ja kehittämiskohteita. Kehittämistoimenpiteissä korostuvat asiakaslähtöisyys ja tuottavuus, ja niissä huomioidaan niin asiakkaan, henkilöstön, prosessien kuin asiakasohjauksen näkökulma. Työn keskeisimmät tulokset ovat prosessikuvaukset, tunnistetut ongelma- ja kehittämiskohteet sekä prosessien uudelleenmäärittämiseksi muodostetut kehittämistoimenpide-ehdotukset, joiden hyötyjä ja vaikutuksia mm. suorituskykyyn arvioidaan. Tulosten perusteella voidaan päätellä, että prosessijohtamisen menetelmät soveltuvat sosiaali- ja terveydenhuollon toiminnan kehittämiseen, kunhan huomioidaan toimintaympäristön erityispiirteet ja haasteet.

Laser-TIG–hybridihitsauksen soveltuvuustutkimus

Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitetään ilman hitsauslisäainetta tapahtuvan laser–TIG–hybridihitsausprosessin soveltuvuus 6 mm ja 8 mm paksujen päittäisliitettyjen S355 K2 ja Laser 355 MC rakenneterästen hitsaukseen. Hitsien tarkastelussa huomio kiinnitetään hitsausnopeuteen, hitsien tunkeumaan, liittämistehokkuuteen, hitsien kovuuteen ja hitsausliitoksen ulkonäköön. Muita tutkittavia asioita ovat laser-TIG-hybridihitsattujen levyjen muodonmuutokset ja suuresta hitsausnopeudesta sekä pienestä t8/5 jäähtymisajasta johtuvat mahdolliset kylmähalkeamat. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsejä verrataan robotti-MAG- ja käsin MAG-hitseihin sekä kaarihitsausstandardin SFS-EN ISO 5817 hitsiluokkien mukaisiin raja-arvoihin. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessissa TIG-valokaari mahdollistaa tasaisen ja lähes roiskeettoman hitsin ja lasersäde aikaansaa syvän tunkeuman sekä tasalaatuisen juurihitsin. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessilla 6 mm paksut S355 K2 rakenneteräslevyt on mahdollista hitsata levyn yhdeltä puolelta kerralla valmiiksi. Paksummat 8 mm levyt voidaan hitsata levyn yhdeltä tai molemmilta puolilta suoritettavalla laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksella. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessilla hitsatut hitsit ovat hyvin siistejä ja lähes roiskeettomia. Verrattaessa laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessia muihin hitsausprosesseihin sen voidaan todeta olevan erittäin kilpailukykyinen 6 mm paksujen päittäisliitettyjen rakenneterästen hitsaamisessa, mutta se soveltuu myös 8 mm paksujen rakenneterästen hitsaamiseen. Tutkitut hitsit täyttävät kaarihitsausstandardin SFS-EN ISO 5817 B- ja D-hitsiluokkien mukaiset raja-arvot. Vertailukokeet 6 mm paksulla S355 rakenneteräksellä osoittavat, että yhdeltä puolelta suoritettavan laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksen hitsausnopeus on robotti-MAG-hitsaukseen verrattuna yli nelinkertainen ja MAG-käsinhitsaukseen verrattuna yli viisinkertainen. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksessa liittämistehokkuus on noin viisinkertainen robotti-MAGhitsaukseen verrattuna. Molemmilta puolilta suoritettavalla laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksella voidaan 8 mm paksulla S355 rakenneteräksellä saavuttaa noin kolminkertainen hitsausnopeus ja liittämistehokkuus robotti-MAG-hitsaukseen verrattuna. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksessa TIG-kaaren tuoman lisälämmön ansiosta suurillakin hitsausnopeuksilla (1 m/min) voidaan saavuttaa edulliset kovuusarvot. Kovuusmittausten tulosten perusteella 6 mm ja 8 mm paksujen S355 K2 ja Laser 355 MC rakenneterästen hitsit eivät ylittäneet kaarihitsausstandardin määrittelemää 350 HV kovuuden enimmäisrajaa. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsauksen edullisesta lämmöntuonnista johtuen levyjen pituus- ja poikittaissuuntaiset muodonmuutokset ovat noin 80 prosenttia pienemmät kuin käsin suoritettavassa MAG-hitsauksessa. Laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessilla käytetään I-railoa, mutta robotti-MAG- ja käsin MAG-hitsausprosesseilla joudutaan käyttämään V-railoa, jolloin lämmöntuonti ja siitä johtuvat muodonmuutokset ovat suuremmat. Korkea liittämistehokkuus ja edullinen lämmöntuonti merkitsevät vähäisempiä muodonmuutoksia ja siten merkittäviä säästöjä työ-, materiaali- ja energiakustannuksissa. 8 mm ja sitä paksummilla S355 rakenneteräksillä levyn yhdeltä puolelta suoritettava päittäisliitoksen hitsaaminen on laser-TIG hybridihitsauksella haastavaa, koska yli 200 A:n TIG-kaarivirralla suuri metallisula aiheuttaa avaimenreiän sulkeutumisen ja avaimenreiän alaosaan muodostuu kaasukuplia. Tästä voidaan tehdä sellainen johtopäätös, että päittäisliitettävien levyjen ilmarakoa pitäisi kasvattaa niin suureksi, että avaimenreiän sulavirtaus ei pääse estymään. Yli 0,25 mm:n ilmarako edellyttää lasersäteen vaaputusta tai säteen halkaisijan kasvattamista. Ilmaraon kasvattaminen edellyttää myös lisäaineen käyttöä. Tutkimustulosten perusteella laser-TIG-hybridihitsausprosessilla voidaan saavuttaa merkittäviä etuja ja kustannussäästöjä, joten sen hyödyntämistä kannattaa harkita 8 mm ja sitä ohuempien päittäisliitettävien tuotteiden konepaja- ja tehdastuotannossa. Laser-TIGhybridihitsausprosessi soveltuu esimerkiksi seuraavien tuotteiden hitsaamiseen: päittäisliitettävät levyt, palkit, koneenosat, putket, säiliöt ja erilaiset pyörähdyskappaleet.

Gastrointestinal parasites of swine raised in different management systems in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract: From 2012 to 2013 were surveyed gastrointestinal parasites from pig farms located in different municpaliyies in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Fecal samples from 790 pigs were collected from the rectum on 88 family farms and 702 farms with industrial production. The samples were subjected to Faust et al., Sheather, Ritchie, Lutz and direct examination faecal techniques. The estimated parasite prevalence was 93.1% in family farms and 59.1% in industrial farms. Balantidium coli, coccidia and Entamoeba sp. were the parasites with the highest frequencies, and the male and female reproductive categories and fatteners pigs the most infected (p<0.05). Trophozoites of B. coli were most evident in stool samples from semi-solid followed by solid and diarrheal consistencies. Strongyles eggs and Trichuris suis have been detected exclusively in family farms. Ascaris suum eggs and Strongyloides ransomi showed low frequency. The high degree of parasitism, especially protozoa, indicates the need to reassess the management of pigs in both types of production.

Pressure filtration characteristics of enzymatically hydrolyzed biomass suspensions

Enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic polymers is likely to become one of the key technologies enabling industrial production of liquid biofuels and chemicals from lignocellulosic biomass. Certain types of enzymes are able to hydrolyze cellulose and hemicellulose polymers to shorter units and finally to sugar monomers. These monomeric sugars are environmentally acceptable carbon sources for the production of liquid biofuels, such as bioethanol, and other chemicals, such as organic acids. Liquid biofuels in particular have been shown to contribute to the reduction of net emissions of greenhouse gases. The solid residue of enzymatic hydrolysis is composed mainly of lignin and partially degraded fibers, while the liquid phase contains the produced sugars. It is usually necessary to separate these two phases at some point after the hydrolysis stage. Pressure filtration is an efficient technique for this separation. Solid-liquid separation of biomass suspensions is difficult, because biomass solids are able to retain high amounts of water, which cannot be readily liberated by mechanical separation techniques. Most importantly, the filter cakes formed from biomaterials are compressible, which ultimately means that the separation may not be much improved by increasing the filtration pressure. The use of filter aids can therefore facilitate the filtration significantly. On the other hand, the upstream process conditions have a major influence on the filtration process. This thesis investigates how enzymatic hydrolysis and related process conditions affect the filtration properties of a cardboard suspension. The experimental work consists of pressure filtration and characterization of hydrolysates. The study provides novel information about both issues, as the relationship between enzymatic hydrolysis conditions and subsequent filtration properties has so far not been considered in academic studies. The results of the work reveal that the final degree of hydrolysis is an important factor in the filtration stage. High hydrolysis yield generally increases the average specific cake resistance. Mixing during the hydrolysis stage resulted in undefined changes in the physical properties of the solid residue, causing a high filtration resistance when the mixing intensity was high. Theoretical processing of the mixing data led to an interesting observation: the average specific cake resistance was observed to be linearly proportional to the mixer shear stress. Another finding worth attention is that the size distributions of the solids did not change very dramatically during enzymatic hydrolysis. There was an observable size reduction during the first couple of hours, but after that the size reduction was minimal. Similarly, the size distribution of the suspended solids remained almost constant when the hydrolyzed suspension was subjected to intensive mixing. It was also found that the average specific cake resistance was successfully reduced by the use of filter aids. This reduction depended on the method of how the filter aids were applied. In order to obtain high filtration capacity, it is recommended to use the body feed mode, i.e. to mix the filter aid with the slurry prior to filtration. Regarding the quality of the filtrate, precoat filtration was observed to produce a clear filtrate with negligible suspended solids content, while the body feed filtrates were turbid, irrespective of which type of filter aid was used.

PDM system functions and utilizations analysis to improve efficiency of sheet metal product design and manufacturing

This study will concentrate on Product Data Management (PDM) systems, and sheet metal design features and classification. In this thesis, PDM is seen as an individual system which handles all product-related data and information. The meaning of relevant data is to take the manufacturing process further with fewer errors. The features of sheet metals are giving more information and value to the designed models. The possibility of implementing PDM and sheet metal features recognition are the core of this study. Their integration should make the design process faster and manufacturing-friendly products easier to design. The triangulation method is the basis for this research. The sections of this triangle are: scientific literature review, interview using the Delphi method and the author’s experience and observations. The main key findings of this study are: (1) the area of focus in triangle (the triangle of three different point of views: business, information exchange and technical) depends on the person’s background and their role in the company, (2) the classification in the PDM system (and also in the CAD system) should be done using the materials, tools and machines that are in use in the company and (3) the design process has to be more effective because of the increase of industrial production, sheet metal blank production and the designer’s time spent on actual design and (4) because Design For Manufacture (DFM) integration can be done with CAD-programs, DFM integration with the PDM system should also be possible.

Carbon footprint of recycled paper

Industrial production of pulp and paper is an intensive consumer of energy, natural resources, and chemicals that result in a big carbon footprint of the final product. At present companies and industries aspire to calculate their gas emissions into the atmosphere in order to afterwards reduce atmospheric contamination. One of the approaches allowing to increase carbon burden from the pulp and paper manufacture is paper recycling. The general purpose of the current paper is to establish methods of quantifying and minimizing the carbon footprint of paper. The first target of this research is to derive a mathematical relationship between virgin fibre requirements with respect to the amount of recycled paper used in the pulp. One more purpose is to establish a model to be used to clarify the contribution of recycling and transportation to decreasing carbon dioxide emissions. For this study sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the robustness of obtained results. The results of the present study show that an increasing of recycling rate does not always lead to minimizing the carbon footprint. Additionally, we derived that transportation of waste paper throughout distances longer than 5800 km has no sense because the use of that paper will only increase carbon dioxide emissions and it is better to reject recycling at all. Finally, we designed the model for organization of a new supply chain of paper product to a customer. The models were implemented as reusable MATLAB frameworks.

Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu

Taloussuhdanteiden yhteisvaihtelun tutkimus on eräs taloustieteiden vanhimmista tutkimusaloista. Finanssikriisi ja euroalueen kohtaamat talousvaikeudet ovat kuitenkin nostaneet aiheen jälleen hyvin ajankohtaiseksi. Kuluneiden kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana tutkimusalueesta on muodostunut erittäin laaja lukuisine näkökulmineen ja debatteineen. Tutkielman aiheena on Suomen taloussuhdanteiden kansainvälinen yhteisvaihtelu valittujen vertailumaiden kanssa. Vertailumaat ovat Ruotsi, Norja, Tanska, Saksa, Ranska, Iso-Britannia ja Yhdysvallat. Tutkielmaan valitut taloussuhdannetta kuvaavat muuttujat ovat reaalinen bruttokansantuote, yksityinen kokonaiskulutus ja teollisuustuotantoindeksi. Aineisto on kerätty Lappeenrannan tiedekirjaston Nelli-portaalin OECD iLibrary-tietokannasta ja se kattaa aikajakson 1960 Q1- 2014 Q4. Maakohtainen taloussuhdanne operationalisoidaan laskemalla ensimmäinen logaritminen differenssi, joka edustaa perinteistä reaalisuhdanneteoreettisen koulukunnan näkemystä taloussuhdanteesta. Tutkielman näkökulmaksi valitaan yhden maan näkökulma, joka on hieman harvinaisempi näkökulma verrattuna laajempiin alueellisiin näkökulmiin. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään Pearsonin korrelaatiokerrointa, Engle-Granger- sekä Johansenin yhteisintegroituvuustestejä ja VAR-GARCH-BEKK –mallilla laskettua dynaamista korrelaatiota, jotka lasketaan Suomen ja vertailumaiden välille maapareittain. Tuloksia tulkitaan suomalaisen vientiä vertailumaihin suunnittelevan yrityksen näkökulmasta. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella Engle-Grangerin menetelmällä laskettu samanaikainen yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja vertailumaiden välillä on epätodennäköistä. Kun yhteisintegroituvuuden annetaan riippua myös viiveistä, saadaan Johansenin menetelmällä yhteisintegroituvuus Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille reaalisessa bruttokansantuotteessa, Suomen ja Saksan, Suomen ja Ranskan sekä Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen välille yksityisessä kokonaiskulutuksessa sekä Suomen ja Norjan välille teollisuustuotantoindeksissä. Tulosten tulkintaa vaikeuttavat niiden malliriippuvuus ja informaatiokriteerien toisistaan poikkeavat mallisuositukset, joten yhteisintegroituvuus on mahdollinen myös muiden maaparien kohdalla. Dynaamisten korrelaatiokuvaajien perusteella maaparien välisen yhteisvaihtelun voimakkuus muuttuu ajan mukana. Finanssikriisin aikana kokonaistuotannossa on havaittavissa korkeampi korrelaatio, mutta korrelaatio palaa sen jälkeen perustasolleen. Kokonaiskulutuksen korrelaatio on kokonaistuotantoa alhaisempi ja pitemmissä aikajaksoissa vaihtelevaa.

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.

Polyphosphate Accumulation by Marine Bacteria

Phosphate (Pi) is one among the most important essential residues in maintenance and inheritance of life, with far diverse physiological role as structural, functional and energy transduction. Phosphate accumulation in wastewaters containing run off of fertilizers and industrial discharges is a global problem that results in algal blooms in bays, lakes and waterways. Currently available methods for removing phosphates from wastewater are based primarily on polyP accumulation by the activated sludge bacteria. PolyP plays a critical role in several environmental and biotechnological problems. Possible relation of interaction between polyP accumulation phenomenon, the low biomass, low Pi uptake, and varying results obtained in response to the impact of sodium chloride, pH, temperature, various inorganic salts and additional carbon sources studied, are all intriguing observations in the present investigation. The results of the present study have evidenced very clearly the scope for potential strains of bacteria from both sea water and marine sediments which could be exploited both for Pi removal in wastewater released by industries and intensive aquaculture practices in to the aquatic environment as well as to harness the potential strains for industrial production of polyP which was wide range of applications.

Dynamics Of Pesticides In The Backwaters Of Kuttanad

The tremendous growth in industrial production and the consequent improving in the standards of living have provoked worldwide discussion on environmental quality. The question of abusive use of pesticides for crop protection and vector control programmes is only one aspect of this entire complex. Inspite of this, tendentious publications such as Rachel Carson’s Silent spring have brought crop protection into the foreground of environmental discussions. The persistence and high stability of organochlorine pesticides are regarded as problematic and the accumulation of pesticides residues and its metabolites in the different compartments of the environment is one of the major concerns. Because of their persistence in the aquatic environment and biomagnifications in food chain, the continuous use of pesticides will have wider implications not only in aquatic environmental quality but also on human health. The residual levels of these persistent chemicals exceed their permissible limits, and get partitioned among the constituent phases of the aquatic systems. Crop protection is only part of the agricultural economy and in agriculture itself has led to the most fundamental changes in the human environment. So, in all areas of life one must weigh the desired advantages against possible disadvantages. The proposed thesis is based on the investigations on the distributions of organochlorine and organophosphorus pesticides in the waters and sediments of Kuttanad backwaters. Kuttanad, a unique agricultural area, which forms the southern part of the Vembanad lake, is a deltaic formation of four river systems entering the southern part of the Cochin estuary. No systematic study has ever been done to assess the ecotoxicological impact of these diverse chemicals and their metabolites in Kuttanad area. So, a detailed systematic and rigorous investigation on the distributions of these persistent chemicals is carried out. The thesis is divided into 7 Chapters

Cell-line Engineering of Chinese Hamster Ovary Cells for Low-temperature Culture

Developments in mammalian cell culture and recombinant technology has allowed for the production of recombinant proteins for use as human therapeutics. Mammalian cell culture is typically operated at the physiological temperature of 37°. However, recent research has shown that the use of low-temperature conditions (30-33°) as a platform for cell-culture results in changes in cell characteristics, such as increased specific productivity and extended periods of cell viability, that can potentially improve the production of recombinant proteins. Furthermore, many recent reports have focused on investigating low-temperature mammalian cell culture of Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells, one of the principal cell-lines used in industrial production of recombinant proteins. Exposure to low ambient temperatures exerts an external stress on all living cells, and elicits a cellular response. This cold-stress response has been observed in bacteria, plants and mammals, and is regulated at the gene level. The exact genes and molecular mechanisms involved in the cold-stress response in prokaryotes and plants have been well studied. There are also various reports that detail the modification of cold-stress genes to improve the characteristics of bacteria or plant cells at low temperatures. However, there is very limited information on mammalian cold-stress genes or the related pathways governing the mammalian cold-stress response. This project seeks to investigate and characterise cold-stress genes that are differentially expressed during low-temperature culture of CHO cells, and to relate them to the various changes in cell characteristics observed in low-temperature culture of CHO cells. The gene information can then be used to modify CHO cell-lines for improved performance in the production of recombinant proteins.

L'esquerda ecològica: residus industrials i geografia humana

L'article presenta una visió global de la problemàtica dels residus industrials des d'una doble perspectiva que destaca el caràcter socioterritorial dels impactes, associats a la seva presència en el medi, i els conflictes que s'esdevenen entorn a les opcions de gestió actualment vigents. Després d'examinar els residus en relació amb la producció industrial, i la producció i 'eliminació', dels residus industrials des de la dimensió territorial, es fa un repàs de les polítiques de gestió, sobre la base de diferents països productors, i s'estudien les implicacions sociopolítiques dels models de gestió, tot centrant-se en l'analisi de les iniciatives ciutadanes alemanyes i de les mobilitzacions a Catalunya en resposta al 'Pla Director per a la Gestió dels Residus Industrials a Catalunya'. A les conclusions s'enceta una reflexió a l'entorn de la recerca en Geografia Humana i l'anàlisi dels residus industrials, i es plantegen les implicacions teòriques i epistemològiques de cara a una visió social dels problemes ambientals

The design process paradox : traditional design processes vs. eco-design processes

The Brundtland Report (WCED, 1987) best known for its popularisation of the concept of sustainable development, also made recommendations for a new approach to design and production, setting out terms for: ‘a production system that respects... the ecological base’ and ‘a technological system that searches continuously for new solutions’. The industrial production, consumption and waste treatment of products today causes a large amount of various environmental burdens. The development and design of new products with reduced environmental impact is one of the new challenges towards a more sustainable society and is therefore an important task in the near future.

Development of novel methods to determine crystalline glucose content of honey based on DSC, HPLC, and viscosity measurements and their use to examine the setting propensity of honey

Crystallization must occur in honey in order to produce set or creamed honey; however, the process must occur in a controlled manner in order to obtain an acceptable product. As a consequence, reliable methods are needed to measure the crystal content of honey (φ expressed as kg crystal per kg honey), which can also be implemented with relative ease in industrial production facilities. Unfortunately, suitable methods do not currently exist. This article reports on the development of 2 independent offline methods to measure the crystal content in honey based on differential scanning calorimetry and high-performance liquid chromatography. The 2 methods gave highly consistent results on the basis of paired t-test involving 143 experimental points (P > 0.05, r**2 = 0.99). The crystal content also correlated with the relative viscosity, defined as the ratio of the viscosity of crystal containing honey to that of the same honey when all crystals are dissolved, giving the following correlation: μr = 1 + 1398.8∅**2.318. This correlation can be used to estimate the crystal content of honey in industrial production facilities. The crystal growth rate at a temperature of 14 ◦C—the normal crystallization temperature used in practice—was linear, and the growth rate also increased with the total glucose content in the honey.

An historical perspective on forecast errors

Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK output measures. The series are dominated by strong upward trends, so we consider various specifications of this, including the local linear trend structural time-series model, which allows the level and slope of the trend to vary. Our results are not unduly sensitive to how the trend in the series is modelled: the average sizes of the forecast errors of all models, and the wide span of prediction intervals, attests to a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment. It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable.