National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Report on the surveys regarding parental preferences on primary school patronage

The Minister for Education and Skills outlined his action plan in response to the report of the Advisory Group to the Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector in June of last year. As part of the action plan the Minister announced that surveys of parental preferences in 44 areas would be undertaken, beginning with five pilot areas in the autumn of 2012. All of the areas to be surveyed under this process fit the following criteria: Population of between 5,000 and 20,000 inhabitants according to the 2011 census Population has increased by less than 20% during the intercensal period 2006 to 2011

Report to New Schools Establishment Group on the pilot surveys regarding parental preferences on primary school patronage

The Minister for Education and Skills outlined his action plan in response to the report of the Advisory Group to the Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector in June of this year. As part of the action plan the Minister announced that surveys of parental preferences in 44 areas would be undertaken, beginning with five pilot areas in the autumn of 2012. All of the areas to be surveyed under this process fit the following criteria: • Population of between 5,000 and 20,000 inhabitants according to the 2011 census • Population has increased by less than 20% during the inter-censal period 2006 to 2011 Surveys were undertaken on a pilot basis initially in five areas. The surveys were open for a total of three weeks from Monday 22nd October to Friday 9th November 2012 inclusive. This report has been prepared for the New Schools Establishment Group regarding the five pilot surveys and the analysis of the outcomes in each area. The report is comprised of this overall summary document and the separate detailed analysis documents in respect of each of the five areas that were surveyed and which are contained in Appendices 1 to 5. Appendix 6 is a sample of the paper survey which is similar to the on-line survey.

The development of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for Trypanosoma vivax antibodies and its use in epidemiological surveys

There are data indicating that the distribution of Trypanosoma vivax in the Brazilian territory is expanding with potential to reach other areas, where the vectors are present. The detection of anti-trypanosomal antibodies in serum provides important information of the trypanosomal status in cattle herds. For this reason, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Tv-ELISA-Ab) with crude antigen from one Brazilian isolate of T. vivax was developed and evaluated. The sensitivity and specificity were respectively 97.6 and 96.9%. In the evaluation of cross-reactions, three calves inoculated with T. evansi trypimastigotes blood forms showed optical densities (OD) under the cut-off during the whole experimental period, except one at 45 days post-inoculation. With relation to Babesia bovis, B. bigemina, and Anaplasma marginale, which are endemic hemoparasites in the studied area, the cross-reactions were shown to be 5.7, 5.3, and 1.1%, respectively. The first serological survey of Pantanal and state of Pará showed that T. vivax is widespread, although regions within both areas had significantly different prevalences. Therefore, this Tv-ELISA-Ab may be a more appropriate test for epidemiological studies in developing countries because the diagnostic laboratories in most countries may be able to perform an ELISA, which is not true for polymerase chain reaction.

Assessment of schistosomiasis, through school surveys, in the Forest Zone of Pernambuco, Brazil

This work had the objective of assessing the present epidemiological situation regarding schistosomiasis through performing Kato-Katz coproscopic tests on representative samples of schoolchildren from each of the 43 municipality of endemic area of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The methodology is recommended by the World Health Organization to conduct sampled surveys among children at elementary school levels, ideal target group for baseline surveys: (i) schools are accessible; (ii) the greatest prevalence of schistosomiasis is found within this group; (iii) the data gathered from this age group can be used for intervention within the community as a whole. The following infection indicators were utilized: positivity (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of Schistosoma mansoni in the feces) and severity (geometric mean number of eggs per gram of feces, epg). These indicators allowed the area in general and the municipalities in particular to be categorized into prevalence and severity classes for S. mansoni. The prevalence classes were: low (<10%), medium (> 10 and < 50%), and high (> 50%); the severity classes were: low (1-99 epg), moderate (100-399 epg), and severe (> 400 epg). For the geohelminthic diseases, the following indicators were used: positivity for each geohelminth (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of geohelminths), and cumulative positivity (percentage of individuals examined with eggs of at least one geohelminth). The municipalities were categorized by means of their cumulative positivity into the following geohelminth prevalence classes (WHO 2002): low (< 50%), medium (> 50 and < 70%), and high (> 70%). The study covered 271 schools in 179 different localities, thus giving a total of 11,234 examinations performed. The overall positivity for S. mansoni was 14.4% and the egg count for this parasite in the feces gave a geometric mean of 67.9 epg which suggests a low general state of infection. These results allow this mesoregion to be categorized as presenting medium prevalence and low severity of schistosomiasis. The overall positivity rates for the geohelminths, Ascaris lumbricoides, Ancylostomidae, and Trichuris trichiura were, respectively, 30.4, 10.1, and 27.8%; the cumulative positivity was 45.4%. These results allow this mesoregion to be categorized as presenting low prevalence of geohelminthic diseases. The data show some municipalities in Pernambuco with prevalence greater than 20%, while others presented parasite loads greater than 100 epg. These indicators attest to the significant morbidity due to schistosomiasis regarding to the severity of infections established in young populations.

Beyond the insiders' circle: disseminating the results of adolescent health surveys.

Adolescent health surveys, like those for other segments of the population, tend to remain in the hands of researchers, where they can have no real impact on the way critical health issues are dealt with by policy makers or other professionals directly connected to young people in their everyday work. This paper reviews important issues concerning the dissemination of survey results among professionals from various fields. The content, length and wording of the messages should be tailored to the audience one wants to reach as well as the type of channels used for their diffusion. Survey data sets can be used to select priorities for interventions: ad hoc presentations, attractive summaries and brochures, or even films expressing young peoples' opinions have been used by European public health professionals to make data sets usable in various local, regional and national contexts. CONCLUSION: The impact of these diffusion strategies is, however, difficult to assess and needs to be refined. The adequate delivery of survey findings as well as advocacy and lobbying activities require specific skills which can be endorsed by specialized professionals. Ultimately, it is the researchers' responsibility to ensure that such tasks are effectively performed.

Survey to identify Mycobacterium leprae-infected household contacts of patients from prevalent regions of leprosy in Colombia

Leprosy in Colombia is in the post-elimination phase; nevertheless, there are regions of this country where the incidence is still around 3-4/100,000. Early detection of leprosy patients is a priority for achieving control and elimination of leprosy; however, the clinical exam is not very sensitive and thus, the majority of patients are diagnosed only when they demonstrate lesions, and damage to the nerves and skin has already occurred. The goal of the present study was to identify Mycobacterium leprae infection and immune responses in household contacts (HHC) of leprosy patients from three prevalent regions of Colombia. Clinical examination, the Mitsuda test, evaluation of IgM anti-PGL-I in the serum, the bacillar index (BI), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from nasal swabs (NS) were performed for 402 HHC of 104 leprosy patients during a cross-sectional survey. Positive titers for IgM anti-PGL1 were found for 54 HHC, and PCR-positive NS for 22. The Mitsuda reaction was negative for 38 HHC, although three were positive for IgM anti-PGL-1 titers. The data document that leprosy transmission among HHC is still occurring in a non-endemic country.

Clinical, bacteriological and immunological follow-up of household contacts of leprosy patients from a post-elimination area - Antioquia, Colombia

Follow-up of the household contacts (HHC) of leprosy patients is still the best strategy for early detection of leprosy. HHC from a post-elimination region of Colombia studied in 2001-2002 were re-contacted in 2007. They were tested at both times by clinical examination, bacillary index (BI), PCR from a slit skin smear (SSS) and anti PGL-1 IgM titres. Thirty-two of 61 HHC (52%) were re-contacted. Nine HHC (28%) showed sero-conversion and one had a skin lesion (BI negative, nested PCR positive). Periodic evaluation of HHC can contribute to the detection of infected HHC as well as new and early leprosy cases.

Does Interviewer-Respondent Socio-Demographic Matching Increase Cooperation in Centralized CATI Household Panels?

Overall it seems that age and gender interviewer characteristics are relevant in achieving higher cooperation rates by telephone panel members. This appears to be the case especially for older male interviewers, who perform the best on gaining cooperation across different types of respondents. This holds if important interviewer covariates like experience are controlled for. There is no evidence that special sex age or sex matches yield a higher cooperation. It may be that not only the perceived authority of the institution that sponsors the survey plays a role when it comes to cooperation (Groves et al., 1992) but also of the interviewer who asks for this cooperation. Presumably older men have more authority to convince sample members to participate. A simple recommendation is to use as many older male interviewers as possible for the recruitment phase. It is likely that this strategy would also be successful in other western cultures than Switzerland.

Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.

Effects of Interviewer Experience on Components of Nonresponse in the European Social Survey

We analyze interviewer related nonresponse differences in face-to-face surveys distinguishing three types of interviewers: those who have previous experience with the same high standard cross-sectional survey ("experienced"), those who were chosen by the survey agency to complete refusal conversions ("seniors"), and usual interviewers. The nonresponse components are obtaining household contact, target person contact, and target person cooperation. In addition we examine if interviewer homogeneity with respect to these components is different across the three interviewer groups. Data come from the European Social Survey (ESS) contact forms from four countries which participated during the three rounds 2002/04/06 and used the same survey agency that in turn used to some extent the same interviewers. To analyze interviewer effects, we use discrete two-level models. We find some evidence of better performance by both senior and experienced interviewers and indications of greater homogeneity for nonresponse components, especially for those that contain room for improvement. Surprisingly, the senior interviewers do not outperform those experienced. We conclude that survey agencies should make more efforts to decrease the comparatively high interviewer turnover.

Early detection of leprosy by examination of household contacts, determination of serum anti-PGL-1 antibodies and consanguinity

A cross-sectional clinical trial in which the serum anti-phenolic glycolipid (anti-PGL-1) antibodies were analysed in household contacts (HHC) of patients with leprosy as an adjunct early leprosy diagnostic marker was conducted. The families of 83 patients underwent clinical examination and serum anti-PGL1 measurement using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of 320 HHC, 98 were contacts of lepromatous leprosy (LL), 80 were contacts of borderline lepromatous (BL), 28 were contacts of borderline (BB) leprosy, 54 were contacts of borderline tuberculoid (BT), 40 were contacts of tuberculoid (TT) and 20 were contacts of indeterminate (I) leprosy. Consanguinity with the patients was determined for 232 (72.5%) HHC. Of those 232 contacts, 183 had linear consanguinity. Forty-nine HHC had collateral consanguinity. Fifty-eight contacts (18.1%) tested positive for anti-PGL1 antibodies. The number of seropositive contacts based on the clinical forms of the index case was 17 (29.3%) for LL, 15 (25.9%) for BL, one (1.7%) for BB, 14 (24.1%) for BT, three (5.2%) for TT and eight (13.7%) for I. At the one year follow-up, two (3.4%) of these seropositive contacts had developed BT leprosy. The results of the present study indicate that the serum anti-PGL-1 IgM antibody may be useful for evaluating antigen exposure and as a tool for an early leprosy diagnosis in HHC.

Unveiling healthy carriers and subclinical infections among household contacts of leprosy patients who play potential roles in the disease chain of transmission

Leprosy transmission still occurs despite the availability of highly effective treatment. The next step towards successfully eliminating leprosy is interrupting the chain of transmission of the aetiological agent, Mycobacterium leprae. In this investigation, we provide evidence that household contacts (HHCs) of leprosy patients might not only have subclinical infections, but may also be actively involved in bacilli transmission. We studied 444 patients and 1,352 contacts using anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I) serology and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to test for M. leprae DNA in nasal swabs. We classified the patients according to the clinical form of their disease and the contacts according to the characteristics of their index case. Overall, 63.3% and 34.2% of patients tested positive by ELISA and PCR, respectively. For HHCs, 13.3% had a positive ELISA test result and 4.7% had a positive PCR test result. The presence of circulating anti-PGL-I among healthy contacts (with or without a positive PCR test result from nasal swabs) was considered to indicate a subclinical infection. DNA detected in nasal swabs also indicates the presence of bacilli at the site of transmission and bacterial entrance. We suggest that the concomitant use of both assays may allow us to detect subclinical infection in HHCs and to identify possible bacilli carriers who may transmit and disseminate disease in endemic regions. Chemoprophylaxis of these contacts is suggested.

Serial QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube assay and tuberculin skin test to diagnose latent tuberculosis in household Mexican contacts: conversion and reversion rates and associated factors using conventional and borderline zone definitions

A cohort of 123 adult contacts was followed for 18‐24 months (86 completed the follow-up) to compare conversion and reversion rates based on two serial measures of QuantiFERON (QFT) and tuberculin skin test (TST) (PPD from TUBERSOL, Aventis Pasteur, Canada) for diagnosing latent tuberculosis (TB) in household contacts of TB patients using conventional (C) and borderline zone (BZ) definitions. Questionnaires were used to obtain information regarding TB exposure, TB risk factors and socio-demographic data. QFT (IU/mL) conversion was defined as <0.35 to ≥0.35 (C) or <0.35 to >0.70 (BZ) and reversion was defined as ≥0.35 to <0.35 (C) or ≥0.35 to <0.20 (BZ); TST (mm) conversion was defined as <5 to ≥5 (C) or <5 to >10 (BZ) and reversion was defined as ≥5 to <5 (C). The QFT conversion and reversion rates were 10.5% and 7% with C and 8.1% and 4.7% with the BZ definitions, respectively. The TST rates were higher compared with QFT, especially with the C definitions (conversion 23.3%, reversion 9.3%). The QFT conversion and reversion rates were higher for TST ≥5; for TST, both rates were lower for QFT <0.35. No risk factors were associated with the probability of converting or reverting. The inconsistency and apparent randomness of serial testing is confusing and adds to the limitations of these tests and definitions to follow-up close TB contacts.