An economic modelling approach for vulnerability assesment in irrigation farms in Spain

In the last years, vulnerability assessment has emerged as a need for policy making instead of being a pure academic exercise (Hinkel, 2010). In the current context of changing climate, increasing water scarcity threatens economic activities in many arid or semi-arid regions of the World. Climate change (CC) science and policy debates have traditionally focused on CC mitigation and impact assessment (Krysanova et al., 2010). However, even if mitigation policies are successfully enforced some climate change is still expected. Then, adaptation is strongly necessary and, for that, improved knowledge on vulnerability and adaptive capacity is required.

Implementation of safety based incentives in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs): an empirical analysis for the case of Spain

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are mostly implemented to circumvent budgetary constraints, and to encourage efficiency and quality in the provision of public infrastructure in order to reach social welfare. One of the ways of reaching the latter objective is by the introduction of performance based standards tied to bonuses and penalties to reward or punish the performance of the contractor. This paper focuses on the implementation of safety based incentives in PPPs in such a way that the better the safety outcome the greater larger will be the economic reward to the contractor. The main aim of this paper is to identify whether the incentives to improve road safety in PPPs are ultimately effective in improving safety ratios in Spain. To that end, Poisson and negative binomial regression models have been applied using information of motorways of the Spanish network of 2006. The findings indicate that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not much controllable by the contractor such as the Average Annual Daily Traffic and the percentage of heavy vehicles, the implementation of safety incentives in PPPs has a positive influence in the reduction of fatalities, injuries and accidents.

Geochemical fingerprints and controls in the sediments of an urban river: River Manzanares, Madrid (Spain)

The geochemical fingerprint of sediment retrieved from the banks of the River Manzanares as it passes through the City of Madrid is presented here. The river collects the effluent water from several Waste Water Treatment (WWT) plants in and around the city, such that, at low flows, up to 60% of the flow has been treated. A total of 18 bank-sediment cores were collected along the course of the river, down to its confluence with the Jarama river, to the south–east of Madrid. Trace and major elements in each sample were extracted following a double protocol: (a) “Total” digestion with HNO3, HClO4 and HF; (b) “Weak” digestion with sodium acetate buffered to pH=5 with acetic acid, under constant stirring. The digests thus obtained were subsequently analysed by ICP-AES, except for Hg which was extracted with aqua regia and sodium chloride-hydroxylamine sulfate, and analysed by Cold Vapour-AAS. X-ray diffraction was additionally employed to determine the mineralogical composition of the samples. Uni- and multivariate analyses of the chemical data reveal the influence of Madrid on the geochemistry of Manzanares' sediments, clearly manifested by a marked increase in the concentration of typically “urban” elements Ag, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn, downstream of the intersection of the river with the city's perimeter. The highest concentrations of these elements appear to be associated with illegal or accidental dumping of waste materials, and with the uncontrolled incorporation of untreated urban runoff to the river. The natural matrix of the sediment is characterised by fairly constant concentrations of Ce, La and Y, whereas changes in the lithology intersected by the river cause corresponding variations in Ca–Mg and Al–Na contents. In the final stretch of the river, the presence of carbonate materials seems to exert a strong geochemical control on the amount of Zn and, to a lesser extent, Cu immobilised in the sediments. This fact suggests that a variable but significant proportion of both elements may be susceptible to reincorporation in the aqueous phase under realistic environmental conditions.

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.

An integral model for natural regeneration of Pinus pinea L. in the Northern Plateau (Spain) = Modelo integral de regeneración natural para Pinus pinea L. en la Meseta Norte (España)

Natural regeneration is an ecological key-process that makes plant persistence possible and, consequently, it constitutes an essential element of sustainable forest management. In this respect, natural regeneration in even-aged stands of Pinus pinea L. located in the Spanish Northern Plateau has not always been successfully achieved despite over a century of pine nut-based management. As a result, natural regeneration has recently become a major concern for forest managers when we are living a moment of rationalization of investment in silviculture. The present dissertation is addressed to provide answers to forest managers on this topic through the development of an integral regeneration multistage model for P. pinea stands in the region. From this model, recommendations for natural regeneration-based silviculture can be derived under present and future climate scenarios. Also, the model structure makes it possible to detect the likely bottlenecks affecting the process. The integral model consists of five submodels corresponding to each of the subprocesses linking the stages involved in natural regeneration (seed production, seed dispersal, seed germination, seed predation and seedling survival). The outputs of the submodels represent the transitional probabilities between these stages as a function of climatic and stand variables, which in turn are representative of the ecological factors driving regeneration. At subprocess level, the findings of this dissertation should be interpreted as follows. The scheduling of the shelterwood system currently conducted over low density stands leads to situations of dispersal limitation since the initial stages of the regeneration period. Concerning predation, predator activity appears to be only limited by the occurrence of severe summer droughts and masting events, the summer resulting in a favourable period for seed survival. Out of this time interval, predators were found to almost totally deplete seed crops. Given that P. pinea dissemination occurs in summer (i.e. the safe period against predation), the likelihood of a seed to not be destroyed is conditional to germination occurrence prior to the intensification of predator activity. However, the optimal conditions for germination seldom take place, restraining emergence to few days during the fall. Thus, the window to reach the seedling stage is narrow. In addition, the seedling survival submodel predicts extremely high seedling mortality rates and therefore only some individuals from large cohorts will be able to persist. These facts, along with the strong climate-mediated masting habit exhibited by P. pinea, reveal that viii the overall probability of establishment is low. Given this background, current management –low final stand densities resulting from intense thinning and strict felling schedules– conditions the occurrence of enough favourable events to achieve natural regeneration during the current rotation time. Stochastic simulation and optimisation computed through the integral model confirm this circumstance, suggesting that more flexible and progressive regeneration fellings should be conducted. From an ecological standpoint, these results inform a reproductive strategy leading to uneven-aged stand structures, in full accordance with the medium shade-tolerant behaviour of the species. As a final remark, stochastic simulations performed under a climate-change scenario show that regeneration in the species will not be strongly hampered in the future. This resilient behaviour highlights the fundamental ecological role played by P. pinea in demanding areas where other tree species fail to persist.

An approach to stakeholders involvement in the preparedness for nuclear and radiological emergency response & recovery in Spain

The elaboration of a generic decision-making strategy to address the evolution of an emergency situation, from the stages of response to recovery, and including a planning stage, can facilitate timely, effective and consistent decision making by the response organisations at every level within the emergency management structure and between countries, helping to ensure optimal protection of health, environment, and society. The degree of involvement of stakeholders in this process is a key strategic element for strengthening the local preparedness and response and can help a successful countermeasures strategy. A significant progress was made with the multi-national European project EURANOS (2004-2009) which brought together best practice, knowledge and technology to enhance the preparedness for Europe's response to any radiation emergency and long term contamination. The subsequent establishment of a European Technology Platform and the recent launch of the research project NERIS-TP ("Towards a self sustaining European Technology Platform (NERIS-TP) on Preparedness for Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Response and Recovery") are aimed to continue with the remaining tasks for gaining appropriate levels of emergency preparedness at local level in most European countries. One of the objectives of the NERIS-TP project is: Strengthen the preparedness at the local/national level by setting up dedicated fora and developing new tools or adapting the tools developed within the EURANOS projects (such as the governance framework for preparedness, the handbooks on countermeasures, the RODOS system, and the MOIRA DSS for long term contamination in catchments) to meet the needs of local communities. CIEMAT and UPM in close interaction with the Nuclear Safety Council will explore, within this project, the use and application in Spain of such technical tools, including other national tools and information and communication strategies to foster cooperation between local, national and international stakeholders. The aim is identify and involve relevant stakeholders in emergency preparedness to improve the development and implementation of appropriate protection strategies as part of the consequence management and the transition to recovery. In this paper, an overview of the "state of the art" on this area in Spain and the methodology and work Plan proposed by the Spanish group within the project NERIS to grow the stakeholder involvement in the preparedness to emergency response and recovery is presented.

Methodology for assessing regional economic impacts of charging HGVs in Spain: an integrated approach through a random utility based multiregional input-output and a road transportation network model

An integrated approach composed of a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model was developed for evaluating the application of a fee to heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) in Spain. For this purpose, a distance-based charge scenario (in euros per vehicle kilometer) for HGVs was evaluated for a selected motorway network in Spain. Although the aim of this charging policy was to increase the efficiency of transport, the approach strongly identified direct and indirect impacts on the regional economy. Estimates of the magnitude and extent of indirect effects on aggregated macroeconomic indicators (employment and gross domestic product) are provided. The macroeconomic effects of the charging policy were found to be positive for some regions and negative for other regions.

Stabilization works at Olvés Church (Zaragoza-Spain)

The Olvés Church is a Lhree naves basilica. From its construction in 1767, it sufTercd important damages and successivc reparations. The church is built on a claycy hillock on top of the village with vcry fort slopcs. The retaining walls Lhat surround the church havc sufTered movements. A soil sludy was done to know its propcrtics and the reason of the movement. Also, the structural roof is broken and it is not fixed to thc walls that can movc. Thc first phase is done, with a pavcd squa rc ovcr an ancient cemetery. The next phase is a new roof structure to support the lean walls. Al'ter that done, the repair inside can start.

Construction cost and energy consumption resulting from energy retrofitting in an apartment building in Madrid (Spain).

This theoretical study analyzes the relation between the measures necessesary for the energy retrofitting of a residential building constructed in Madrid, their cost and the improvement of the energy rating of the dwellings. The aim of this work is to establish an evaluation methodology that allows developers and architects to obtain conclusions and orientates therm in the decisioin-making process. It will allow finding the most suitable cost-effective solutions in each case. This paper describes the methodology and the findings obtained. Energy retrofitting and the improvement of the energy behaviour of the building depend on the selection of the retrofitting solutions and also on the investment. In this case study to achieve the best energy rates it is necessary to improve the thermal performance of the envelope as well as the energy systems. Energy retrofitting means an increase in property value but it can't only be considered in economic terms. It is necessary to take into account unquantifiable aspects as increased comfort, improved sound insulation, livability, health, or the elimination of energy poverty situations.

A model of economic management of cultural heritage: the rehabilitation of fort christmas as an interpretation center of defensive architecture of the Mediterranean in Cartagena (Spain)

The Cultural Heritage constitutes a way to generate social identities and play an important role in the development of the Spanish Mediterranean cities that opt to sustainable quality tourism. The reflection on the necessity of intervention on this heritage, in addition to establishing what should be done, brings up the need to define the reasons for taking action, why and what-for. These decisions are essential to establish if its maintenance and recovery are economically sustainable. The Project "Cartagena Port of Cultures", with support from the European Union, is an example of effective instrument for ensuring the sustainability of our built heritage conservation. Its main objective was to enable sustainable development of tourism in Cartagena based on sustainability and seasonality. This was achieved through a process of recovery of heritage resources and their optimum promotion and marketing.

Geomorphological analysis and evolution of an altered floodplain drainage system. The case of the Partido Stream (Spain)

The Partido Stream is a small torrential course that flows into the marsh of the Doñana National Park, an area that was declared a World Heritage Site in 1994. Before 1981, floods occurred, and the stream overflowed onto a floodplain. As an old alluvial fan, the floodplain has its singular orography and functionality. Fromthe floodplain, several drainage channels, locally called caño, discharged into themarsh. The Partido Streamhad themorphology of a caño and covered approximately 8 km from the old fan to the marsh. The stream was straightened and channelised in 1981 to cultivate the old fan. This resulted in floods that were concentrated between the banks in the following years, which caused the depth of water and the shear stress to increase, thus, scouring the river bed and river banks. In this case, the eroded materials were carried towards the marsh where a new alluvial fan evolved. Control measures on the old fan were implemented in 2006 to stop the development of the new alluvial fan downstream over the marsh. Thus, the stream would partially recover its original behaviour that it had before channelisation, moving forwards in a new, balanced state. The present study describes the geomorphological evolution that channelisation has caused since 1981 and the later slow process of recovery of the original hydraulic-sedimentation regime since 2006. Additionally, it deepens the understanding of the original hydraulic behaviour of the stream, combining field data and 2D simulations.

Hidrogeología e hidrodinámica del acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz y su importancia en el caudal base del río Duero, España = Hydrogeology and hydrodynamic of the Gormaz Springs Aquifer and its importance to the base flow of the Duero River, Spain

Se cuantifican las descargas subterráneas de un acuífero a un río que lo atraviesa utilizando correlaciones estadísticas. El río Duero, España, incrementa su caudal base en varios m3/s, al atravesar unos afloramientos carbonatados mesozoicos en un pequeño tramo de su cabecera; esto es de especial importancia en época de estiaje, cuando la mayor parte del caudal base del río procede de manantiales que allí se sitúan. Dichos afloramientos corresponden a uno de los dos acuíferos calcáreos confinados, que se desarrollan en paralelo y están hidráulicamente desconectados por una capa impermeable, que forman el sistema acuífero de los manantiales de Gormaz. Este sistema se encuentra en estado de régimen natural y está apenas explotado. Se define el modelo conceptual de funcionamiento hidrogeológico, considerando el papel hidrogeológico de la falla de Gormaz, situada en la zona de descarga del sistema. Analizando información geológica antecedente y la geofísica exploratoria realizada, se obtuvo un mejor conocimiento de la geometría y los límites de los acuíferos, definiéndose un sistema acuífero con una zona de recarga en el sur, correspondiente a los afloramientos calcáreos, los cuales se confinan hacia el norte bajo el Terciario, hasta intersecar con la falla normal de Gormaz. El salto de falla genera una barrera para las formaciones permeables situadas al extremo norte (margen derecha del río Duero); a su vez, el plano de falla facilita el ascenso del agua subterránea del sistema acuífero en estudio y pone en conexión hidráulica los dos acuíferos. Se estimaron, además, los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos en los alrededores de la falla. La buena correlación entre los niveles piezométricos y las descargas subterráneas al río Duero han permitido la reconstrucción del hidrograma de los manantiales de Gormaz en el periodo 1992-2006. Se calcula así que la contribución subterránea al río Duero es de 135.9 hm3/año, que supone el 18.9% de la aportación total del río. In a short stretch of its headwaters, the base flow of the River Duero increases by several m3/s as it traverses some Mesozoic carbonate outcrops. This is of special importance during the dry season, when the majority of the base flow of the river proceeds from springs in this reach. The outcrops correspond to one of two confined calcareous aquifers that developed in parallel but which are not hydraulically connected because of an impermeable layer. Together, they constitute the aquifer system of the Gormaz Springs. The system is still in its natural regime and is hardly exploited. This study defines the conceptual model of hydrogeological functioning, taking into consideration the role of the Gormaz Fault, which is situated in the discharge zone of the system. Analysis of both antecedent geological information and geophysical explorations has led to a better understanding of the geometry and boundaries of the aquifers, defining an aquifer system with a recharge zone in the south corresponding to in the calcareous outcrops. These calcareous outcrops are confined to the north below Tertiary formations, as far as their intersection with the normal fault of Gormaz. The throw of the fault forms the barrier of the permeable formations situated in the extreme north (right bank of the River Duero). In turn, the fault plane facilitates the upflow of groundwater from the aquifer system and creates hydraulic connection between the two aquifers. In addition, the study estimated the hydraulic parameters of the aquifer around the fault. The close correlation between piezometric levels and the groundwater discharges to the River Duero has enabled the reconstruction of the hydrogram of Gormaz springs over the period 1992-2006. By this means, it is calculated that the groundwater contribution to the River Duero is 135.9 hm3/year, or 18.9% of the total river inflow.