Connections: can the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic reveal something about the 1918 influenza lethality?

This essay proposes that the ecologic association shown between the 20th century coronary heart disease epidemic and the 1918 influenza pandemic could shed light on the mechanism associated with the high lethality of the latter. It suggests that an autoimmune interference at the apoB-LDL interface could explain both hypercholesterolemia and inflammation (through interference with the cellular metabolism of arachidonic acid). Autoimmune inflammation, then, would explain the 1950s-60s acute coronary events (coronary thrombosis upon influenza re-infection) and the respiratory failure seen among young adults in 1918. This hypothesis also argues that the lethality of the 1918 pandemic may have not depended so much on the 1918 virus as on an immune vulnerability to it, possibly resulting from an earlier priming of cohorts born around 1890 by the 1890 influenza pandemic virus.

University jubilees : a new research area in the history of universities

Teema: Yliopistohistoria.

Late-20th-century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia

Glaciers occupy an area of similar to 1600 km(2) in the Caucasus Mountains. There is widespread evidence of retreat since the Little Ice Age, but an up-to-date regional assessment of glacier change is lacking. In this paper, satellite imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) is used to obtain the terminus position of 113 glaciers in the central Caucasus in 1985 and 2000, using a manual delineation process based on a false-colour composite (bands 5, 4, 3). Measurements reveal that 94% of the glaciers have retreated, 4% exhibited no overall change and 2% advanced. The mean retreat rate equates to similar to 8 m a(-1), and maximum retreat rates approach similar to 38 m a(-1). The largest (>10 km(2)) glaciers retreated twice as much (similar to 12 m a(-1)) as the smallest (<1 km(2)) glaciers (similar to 6 m a(-1)), and glaciers at lower elevations generally retreated greater distances. Supraglacial debris cover has increased in association with glacier retreat, and the surface area of bare ice has reduced by similar to 10% between 1985 and 2000. Results are compared to declassified Corona imagery from the 1960s and 1970s and detailed field measurements and mass-balance data for Djankuat glacier, central Caucasus. It is concluded that the decrease in glacier area appears to be primarily driven by increasing temperatures since the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s. Continued retreat could lead to considerable changes in glacier runoff, with implications for regional water resources.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

Is there regime behavior in monsoon convection in the late 20th century?

Mixture model techniques are applied to a daily index of monsoon convection from ERA‐40 reanalysis to show regime behavior. The result is the existence of two significant regimes showing preferred locations of convection within the Asia/Western‐North Pacific domain, with some resemblance to active‐break events over India. Simple trend analysis over 1958–2001 shows that the first regime has become less frequent while the second becomes much more dominant. Both undergo a change in structure contributing to the total OLR trend over the ERA‐40 period. Stratifying the data according to a large‐scale dynamical index of monsoon interannual variability, we show the regime occurrence to be strongly perturbed by the seasonal condition, in agreement with conceptual ideas. This technique could be used to further examine predictability issues relating the seasonal mean and intraseasonal monsoon variability or to explore changes in monsoon behavior in centennial‐scale model integrations.

20th century intraseasonal Asian monsoon dynamics viewed from Isomap

The Asian summer monsoon is a high dimensional and highly nonlinear phenomenon involving considerable moisture transport towards land from the ocean, and is critical for the whole region. We have used daily ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure (SLP) anomalies to the seasonal cycle, over the region 50-145°E, 20°S-35°N to study the nonlinearity of the Asian monsoon using Isomap. We have focused on the two-dimensional embedding of the SLP anomalies for ease of interpretation. Unlike the unimodality obtained from tests performed in empirical orthogonal function space, the probability density function, within the two-dimensional Isomap space, turns out to be bimodal. But a clustering procedure applied to the SLP data reveals support for three clusters, which are identified using a three-component bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The modes are found to appear similar to active and break phases of the monsoon over South Asia in addition to a third phase, which shows active conditions over the Western North Pacific. Using the low-level wind field anomalies the active phase over South Asia is found to be characterised by a strengthening and an eastward extension of the Somali jet whereas during the break phase the Somali jet is weakened near southern India, while the monsoon trough in northern India also weakens. Interpretation is aided using the APHRODITE gridded land precipitation product for monsoon Asia. The effect of large-scale seasonal mean monsoon and lower boundary forcing, in the form of ENSO, is also investigated and discussed. The outcome here is that ENSO is shown to perturb the intraseasonal regimes, in agreement with conceptual ideas.

The Development of Dalton`s Atomic Theory as a Case Study in the History of Science: Reflections for Educators in Chemistry

The inclusion of the history of science in science curricula-and specially, in the curricula of science teachers-is a trend that has been followed in several countries. The reasons advanced for the study of the history of science are manifold. This paper presents a case study in the history of chemistry, on the early developments of John Dalton`s atomic theory. Based on the case study, several questions that are worth discussing in educational contexts are pointed out. It is argued that the kind of history of science that was made in the first decades of the twentieth century (encyclopaedic, continuist, essentially anachronistic) is not appropriate for the development of the competences that are expected from the students of sciences in the present. Science teaching for current days will benefit from the approach that may be termed the ""new historiography of science"".

Carl Maria von Weber’s Overture to Oberon: A History of Recorded Performance

My research examines the recorded performance history of the Overture to Weber’s Oberon in light of these aesthetic goals. I have charted changes in performance practice trends, including in timing, tempo fluctuation, rhythmic accuracy and ensemble, and the use of portamento. The twenty recordings studied that I surveyed span nearly seventy-five years, and include many of the 20th century’s most prominent conductors and orchestras, including groups from Communist Russia, both pre-World War II and post-World War II continental Europe, the British Isles, and the United States.8 Though by no means comprehensive, my selections encompass a diverse sampling of surviving recordings, ensuring a large enough sample size to reflect general trends in the performance of Weber’s masterpiece. My research and analysis confirms the conventional view of a move toward more accurate—but also more cautious, uniform, and inexpressive— performances. Surprisingly, however, this analysis also suggests that we are on the cusp of a new era in orchestra performance practice, one that shares many of the values of the earlier recorded performances. While maintaining today’s high standards of execution, modern performances now look to regain many of the past’s expressive qualities, doing so in sometimes surprising ways.

A brief history of Brazil's growth

The paper studies Brazil’s economic growth and begins with a brief overview of events that marked the country’s development from her discovery to the 19th century. It then divides the years between 1900 and 2008 into four periods. The breaks in regime occur in 1918, 1967 and 1980, according to the methodology created by Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). The use of the accounting methodology serves the analysis of the behavior of productivity in the previously identified different phases of the post-World War II period. High inflation might have been a reason for the decline in productivity observed between 1980 and mid-1990s. The paper shows that terms of trade have a significant effect on economic growth and output fluctuations. Other factors (such as fiscal stimulus or easy access to foreign finance) also matter for output accelerations in the short run. From 2004 to 2008, terms of trade improvement and debt reduction brought economic progress. The emergence of a new era in this millennium will depend on wiser fiscal policies than those of the past.

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography