Métodos para detecção de outliers em séries de preços do índice de preços ao consumidor

Outliers são observações que parecem ser inconsistentes com as demais. Também chamadas de valores atípicos, extremos ou aberrantes, estas inconsistências podem ser causadas por mudanças de política ou crises econômicas, ondas inesperadas de frio ou calor, erros de medida ou digitação, entre outras. Outliers não são necessariamente valores incorretos, mas, quando provenientes de erros de medida ou digitação, podem distorcer os resultados de uma análise e levar o pesquisador à conclusões equivocadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar e comparar diferentes métodos para detecção de anormalidades em séries de preços do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC), calculado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). O IPC mede a variação dos preços de um conjunto fixo de bens e serviços componentes de despesas habituais das famílias com nível de renda situado entre 1 e 33 salários mínimos mensais e é usado principalmente como um índice de referência para avaliação do poder de compra do consumidor. Além do método utilizado atualmente no IBRE pelos analistas de preços, os métodos considerados neste estudo são: variações do Método do IBRE, Método do Boxplot, Método do Boxplot SIQR, Método do Boxplot Ajustado, Método de Cercas Resistentes, Método do Quartil, do Quartil Modificado, Método do Desvio Mediano Absoluto e Algoritmo de Tukey. Tais métodos foram aplicados em dados pertencentes aos municípios Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. Para que se possa analisar o desempenho de cada método, é necessário conhecer os verdadeiros valores extremos antecipadamente. Portanto, neste trabalho, tal análise foi feita assumindo que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers. O Método do IBRE é bastante correlacionado com os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas. Sendo assim, a suposição de que os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas são os verdadeiros valores extremos pode influenciar os resultados, fazendo com que o mesmo seja favorecido em comparação com os demais métodos. No entanto, desta forma, é possível computar duas medidas através das quais os métodos são avaliados. A primeira é a porcentagem de acerto do método, que informa a proporção de verdadeiros outliers detectados. A segunda é o número de falsos positivos produzidos pelo método, que informa quantos valores precisaram ser sinalizados para um verdadeiro outlier ser detectado. Quanto maior for a proporção de acerto gerada pelo método e menor for a quantidade de falsos positivos produzidos pelo mesmo, melhor é o desempenho do método. Sendo assim, foi possível construir um ranking referente ao desempenho dos métodos, identificando o melhor dentre os analisados. Para o município do Rio de Janeiro, algumas das variações do Método do IBRE apresentaram desempenhos iguais ou superiores ao do método original. Já para o município de São Paulo, o Método do IBRE apresentou o melhor desempenho. Em trabalhos futuros, espera-se testar os métodos em dados obtidos por simulação ou que constituam bases largamente utilizadas na literatura, de forma que a suposição de que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers não interfira nos resultados.

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Nutritional assessment of hospitalized HIV-infected patients by the phase angle z-score measurement

Background: This study analyzed the phase-angle (PA) values of hospitalized HVI-infected patients by comparing them with those reported for a healthy population and investigated their relation with nutritional parameters.Methods: This is a cross-sectional study including 101 hospitalized patients diagnosed with HIV infection and evaluated by bioimpedance, anthropometry and biochemical tests. The phase angle values, weight loss percentage (%WL), body mass index (BMI), arm muscle circumference (AMC), tricipital skinfold (TSF), body fat percentage (%BF) and albumin were considered. In order to compare with values for the healthy population, the PA z-score of the patients under study was calculated. Spearman's correlation and the multiple linear regression model were used to identify nutritional parameters associated with the PA z-score.Results: The patients showed a mean PA z-score of -2.6 +/- 1.5, and only 6.6% of them with a positive value. The PA z-score values correlated with %WL (r = -0.51; p < 0.0001), albumin (r = 0.49; p < 0.0001), BMI (r = 0.58; p < 0.0001), AMC (r = 0.41; p < 0.0001), TSF (r = 0.47; p < 0.001) and %BF (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001). In multiple analysis %WL (p = 0.008), albumin (p = 0.01), AMC (p < 0.0001) and %BF (p = 0.0003) remained associated with the score.Conclusions: Low PA z-score values were observed, suggesting a worse clinical prognosis for the patients. The inclusion of the PA z-score as a nutritional indicator during care provision to HIV-infected patients is recommended. (Nutr Hosp. 2012;27:771-774) DOI:10.3305/nh.2012.27.3.5684

Adaptation of the reservoir fish assemblage index (RFAI) for assessing the Barra Bonita Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil)

In order to evaluate the environmental condition of the Barra Bonita Reservoir, we adapted the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI). We chose 24 sampling sites in which three types of habitats were sampled: the mouths of tributaries, the central reservoir and the lateral reservoir. Fish were caught in two seasons (dry and rainy) using 10 gillnet gangs, with meshes ranging from 3 to 12 cm between opposite knots, and funnel traps. Abiotic and biotic variables were measured. Due to the artificial nature of the reservoir, the term biotic integrity was considered inappropriate and the term RFAI (Reservoir Fish Assemblage Index) was adopted. Twelve metrics from sixteen possibles were selected using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The reference conditions were set up based on the criteria of the best condition observed. For each metric, a score of 1, 3 or 5 was assigned as it strongly departs (1), slightly departs (3) or approaches (5) the reference condition. The index value is the sum of the metrics partial scores and ranges from 12 to 60. To evaluate the importance of the unit of measurement of the metric, the index was calculated in fish number (RFAI(N)) and in weight (RFAI(w)). The correlation between RFAIN and RFAIw was very high (r = 0.90, n = 46) indicating that the unit of measurement does not influence the final result of the index. Most of the sampling sites were classified in the 'reasonable' RFAI category. Only the central sites were classified as 'poor'. To validate the RFAI, another index, the Habitat Quality Index (HQI), was built starting from the physiochemical and habitat variables collected. The correlation of the RFAI with the HQI was highly significant (RFAIN, r = 0.37; RFAI(w), r = 0.47; n = 46), indicating that they respond in the same way to environmental degradation. The HQI metrics which most affect RFAI were depth, surrounding landscape and macrophyte presence/absence. Copyright C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BODE Index and GOLD Staging as Predictors of 1-Year Exacerbation Risk in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeitos de baixas doses de cloprostenol via intramuscular ou submucosavulvar na indução do estro e taxas de prenhez em vacas Nelore

The present study aims to compare the effects of lower doses of cloprostenol intramuscular (IM) or into vulvar submucosa (IVS) on estrus induction and pregnancy rate in Nelore cows. A total of 100 cycling Nelore cows with body condition score (BCS 3.5) 1 to 5 scale (Radostitis; Blood, 1986) and 170 +/- 11 days postpartum. Females were randomly divided in 5 groups (N=20) G1 to G5 and treated with cloprostenol (Ciosin (R)) on day 0 (D0) and on day 11 (D11) if not detected in estrus. Cows were injected with 500 mu g IM (G1), 250 mu g IM (G2), 125 mu g IM (G3), 250 mu g IVS (G4) and 125 mu g IVS (G5). Estrus was observed twice a day and the females artificially inseminated 12 hours after heat detection. There was no statistical difference (P>0.80) between groups in the estrus induction (first injection to estrus interval): 16/20-96.00 hours (G1), 13/20-90.42 hours (G2), 10/20-84.45 hours (G3), 15/20-87.86 hours (G4), 12/20-81.25 hours (G5) and second injection (P>0.10): 4/20-67.50 hours (G1), 7/20-85.50 hours (G2), 10/20-57.00 hours (G3), 5/20-70.60 hours (G4), 8/20-60.00 hours (G5). There was no statistical difference (0.65(ns)) between groups in the pregnancy rates: 40% (G1), 45% (G2), 50% (G3), 40% (G4), 40% (G5). The results demonstrate that the treatments with lower doses of cloprostenol intramuscular or into vulvar submucosa may be used to induce heat with similar pregnancy rates in cycling Nelore cows with good body condition.

Simultaneous effects of total solids content, milk base, heat treatment temperature and sample temperature on the rheological properties of plain stirred yogurt

Response surface methodology was used to establish a relationship between total solids content, milk base, heat treatment temperature, and sample temperature, and consistency index, flow behaviour index, and apparent viscosity of plain stirred yogurts. Statistical treatments resulted in developments of mathematical models. All samples presented shear thinning fluid behaviour. The increase of the content of total solids (9.3-22.7 %) and milk base heat treatment temperature (81.6-98.4°C) resulted in a significant increase in consistency index and a decrease in flow behaviour index. Increase in the sample temperature (1.6-18.4°C) caused a decrease in consistency index and increase in flow behaviour index. Apparent viscosity was directly related to the content of total solids. Rheological properties of yogurt were highly dependent on the content of total solids in milk.

Induction of the 72 kDa heat shock protein by glucose ingestion in black pregnant women

Obese Black women are at increased risk for development of gestational diabetes mellitus and have worse perinatal outcomes than do obese women of other ethnicities. Since hsp72 has been associated with the regulation of obesity-induced insulin resistance, we evaluated associations between glucose ingestion, hsp72 release and insulin production in Black pregnant women. Specifically, the effect of a 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) on heat shock protein and insulin levels in the circulation 1 h later was evaluated. Hsp27 and hsp60 levels remained unchanged. In contrast, serum levels of hsp72 markedly increased after glucose ingestion (p = 0.0054). Further analysis revealed that this increase was limited to women who were not obese (body mass index <30). Insulin levels pre-GCT were positively correlated with body mass index (p = 0.0189). Median insulin concentrations also increased post GCT in non-obese women but remained almost unchanged in obese women. Post-GCT serum hsp72 concentrations were inversely correlated with post GCT insulin concentrations (p = 0.0111). These observations suggest that glucose intake during gestation in Black women rapidly leads to an elevation in circulating hsp72 only in non-obese Black women. The release of hsp72 may regulate the extent of insulin production in response to a glucose challenge and, thereby, protect the mother and/or fetus from development of hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and/or immune system alterations. © 2013 Cell Stress Society International.

Psoriasis: correlation between severity index (PASI) and quality of life index (DLQI) in patients assessed before and after systemic treatment

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease of the skin that affects patients of all ages and both genders. The impact of the disease on quality of life is greater among patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. OBJECTIVE: to establish a correlation between the psoriasis area and severity index (PASI) and the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI) based on a quality of life questionnaire adapted to the Brazilian context for patients with plaque psoriasis before and after systemic treatment. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study of psoriasis patients who did not undergo treatment or who manifested clinical activity of the disease. Patients were evaluated according to the PASI and the quality of life questionnaire adapted to the Brazilian context before and 60 days after systemic treatment. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients participated in the study. Twenty-six were men, with a mean age of 46 years. There was no correlation between the PASI and the quality of life questionnaire adapted to the Brazilian context, but there was a correlation between the PASI and some items of the quality of life questionnaire adapted to the Brazilian context, such as jobs involving public contact. CONCLUSION: The non-correlation between the PASI and the quality of life questionnaire adapted to the Brazilian context in this work may be associated with a history of chronic disease, which implies greater acceptance of the illness, or may be related to the low income and social status of the patients studied. The correlation observed among patients with careers involving public contact suggests that some professions are more impacted by the disease. It may be necessary to adapt the quality of life questionnaire to patients with a low income and cultural and social limitations. The small sample size (n=35 patients) and the short follow-up period of 60 days were some of the limitations of this work.

Scrotal Thermography and Doppler Ultrasonography of the Testicular Artery of Buffaloes Subjected to Environmental Heat Stress

The process of spermatic division and differentiation (spermatogenesis) occurs with intratesticular temperature lower that the corporal temperature and for that is essential that the testicular thermoregulation mechanism occurs properly. For evaluation of the scrotal surface temperature can be used the infrared thermography or testicular sensors, besides that, can be evaluated the blood flux in the spermatic cord through the Doppler ultrasonography. Therefore the objective of this study was the evaluation of the scrotal thermography and Doppler flowmetry of the testicular artery of buffaloes subjected to environmental heat stress. For that were used seven healthy buffaloes, with age of 3 and 4 years, of the Murrah breed. For the surface scrotal temperature measurement (SST, degrees C) and superficial neck temperature (SNT, degrees C) was used the infrared termography (Infra Cam (TM) of the brand FLIR Systems Inc.), then Doppler flowmetry of the testicular artery in the region of the spermatic cord through the ultrasonography (Mylab 5, Esaote (R)) and measurement of the rectal temperature (RT, degrees C). The evaluations were done in two moments: moment 1 (M1) with all the animals in the shade (Temperature=32,2 degrees C) and moment 2 (M2) after 3 hours of exposure of animals to the sun (Temperature=38,7 degrees C To calculate the resistivity index (RI) and pulsatility index (PI), spectra were obtained from pulsed Doppler in three random regions of the testicular artery in the spermatic cord. Data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by T test, using a significance level of 5%. There was an increase (p<0,05) of RT (37,4 +/- 0,4(a) vs 39,0 +/- 0,3(b); M1 and M2 respectively), SST (30,6 +/- 1,4(a) vs 35,2,0 +/- 1,0(b); M1 and M2 respectively) and SNT (33,1 +/- 2,5(a) vs 38,5,0 +/- 0,3(b); M1 e M2 respectively) e RI (0,67 +/- 0,1(a) vs 0,74 +/- 0,1(b); M1 e M2 respectively) in M2. Increasing trend was observed (0,05>p>0,01) in PI (1,10 +/- 0,4(a) vs 1,23 +/- 0,2(b); M1 and M2 respectively) in M2. The results of the present study allow us to conclude the healthy buffaloes have the scrotal average surface temperature 3 degrees C lower that the body temperature and that the exposure of 3 hours to sun in healthy buffaloes causes thermal stress to the animals and changes in its surface scrotal temperature, and the Doppler flowmetry of the testicular artery demonstrating the importance of thermal management for breeding buffaloes. Besides that, the thermography and the Doppler ultrasonography presented great potential to detect changes of testicular perfusion, being a promising additional test in the buffalo andrological evaluation.

Recanalization Rates after Acute Deep Vein Thrombosis: A Single-center Experience Using a Newly Proposed Vein Diameter Variation Index

Background: Duplex ultrasound scanning (DUS) is the method of choice for diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). However, only a few studies have performed prospective serial DUS after an acute episode of DVT to assess its evolution. This study aimed to report our experience using DUS combined with a thrombosis score (TS) and a newly proposed vein diameter variation index (VDVI) to evaluate the rate of resolution of DVT by assessing and quantifying the early stages of vein recanalization in proximal vein segments within 6 months after an episode of acute lower extremity DVT.Methods: Twelve patients with first episode of acute lower extremity DVT confirmed by DUS as occurring in <= 10 days after the onset of venous thrombosis symptoms were followed up prospectively for 6 months. TS and VDVI were calculated at 1, 3, and 6 months to assess vein recanalization. Intra-thrombus arteriovenous fistula formation was also investigated and related to the recanalization process.Results: Seven (58%) women were included, with a total cohort median age of 53.5 +/- 19 years. The left lower extremity was affected in 7 (58%) patients. DVT was diagnosed in 55 proximal vein segments. All patients had proximal DVT, with involvement of the external iliac, femoral, and popliteal veins. After 6 months, there was a significant decrease in TS and increase in VDVI (P < 0.001) in all proximal vein segments assessed, indicating thrombus regression. The more distal the DVT was, the faster was the VDVI increase, with most popliteal veins being recanalized at 3 months (P < 0.001). Intra-thrombus arteriovenous fistula was identified in 50% of patients at 1 month while on anticoagulation.Conclusions: The combined use of two different DUS-based assessment tools, TS and the proposed VDVI, provided an effective method to prospectively assess vein recanalization rates after an episode of acute lower extremity DVT in this series of patients and may allow a correct evaluation of DVT and its resolution or progression.

Heat Treatment and Yb-Fiber Laser Welding of a Maraging Steel

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Occurrence of heat waves in Triangulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaiba and their effect on milk yield and feed intake in cattle

The aim of this study was to estimate milk production and food consumption during the occurrence of heat waves in the Triangulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaiba, MG by means of bioclimatic zoning based on the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI). Therefore a history of heat wave occurrence between the years 2000-2010 was compiled. The decline in milk production (DMP) and reduced food consumption (RFC) were simulated in cities where periods of heat waves were identified. Frutal and Ituiutaba had the highest rate of heat wave occurrence per year. The DMP and RFC showed bioclimatic differences between the cities of Uberaba, Ituiutaba and Frutal. The cities with the best bioclimatic conditions were Sacramento and Patrocinio, as they presented a THI classified outside of the emergency range, with a night THI of below 76 and without heat waves. Therefore, the occurrence of heat waves can impair food intake and decrease milk production, thereby most effectively demonstrating the effects of thermal stress on dairy cows in the Triangulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaiba, MG region.

Influence of heat treatment and mechanical cycling on hardness and fracture analysis of Ti35Nb5Zr casting alloy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)