Statistical method of modeling and optimization for wireless sensor nodes with different interconnect technologies and substrates

A comparison study was carried out between a wireless sensor node with a bare die flip-chip mounted and its reference board with a BGA packaged transceiver chip. The main focus is the return loss (S parameter S11) at the antenna connector, which was highly depended on the impedance mismatch. Modeling including the different interconnect technologies, substrate properties and passive components, was performed to simulate the system in Ansoft Designer software. Statistical methods, such as the use of standard derivation and regression, were applied to the RF performance analysis, to see the impacts of the different parameters on the return loss. Extreme value search, following on the previous analysis, can provide the parameters' values for the minimum return loss. Measurements fit the analysis and simulation well and showed a great improvement of the return loss from -5dB to -25dB for the target wireless sensor node.

Chiropteran types I and II interferon genes inferred from genome sequencing traces by a statistical gene-family assembler.

BACKGROUND: The rate of emergence of human pathogens is steadily increasing; most of these novel agents originate in wildlife. Bats, remarkably, are the natural reservoirs of many of the most pathogenic viruses in humans. There are two bat genome projects currently underway, a circumstance that promises to speed the discovery host factors important in the coevolution of bats with their viruses. These genomes, however, are not yet assembled and one of them will provide only low coverage, making the inference of most genes of immunological interest error-prone. Many more wildlife genome projects are underway and intend to provide only shallow coverage. RESULTS: We have developed a statistical method for the assembly of gene families from partial genomes. The method takes full advantage of the quality scores generated by base-calling software, incorporating them into a complete probabilistic error model, to overcome the limitation inherent in the inference of gene family members from partial sequence information. We validated the method by inferring the human IFNA genes from the genome trace archives, and used it to infer 61 type-I interferon genes, and single type-II interferon genes in the bats Pteropus vampyrus and Myotis lucifugus. We confirmed our inferences by direct cloning and sequencing of IFNA, IFNB, IFND, and IFNK in P. vampyrus, and by demonstrating transcription of some of the inferred genes by known interferon-inducing stimuli. CONCLUSION: The statistical trace assembler described here provides a reliable method for extracting information from the many available and forthcoming partial or shallow genome sequencing projects, thereby facilitating the study of a wider variety of organisms with ecological and biomedical significance to humans than would otherwise be possible.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Modelling the effect of temperature on product reliability

Reliability of electronic parts is a major concern for many manufacturers, since early failures in the field can cost an enormous amount to repair - in many cases far more than the original cost of the product. A great deal of effort is expended by manufacturers to determine the failure rates for a process or the fraction of parts that will fail in a period of time. It is widely recognized that the traditional approach to reliability predictions for electronic systems are not suitable for today's products. This approach, based on statistical methods only, does not address the physics governing the failure mechanisms in electronic systems. This paper discusses virtual prototyping technologies which can predict the physics taking place and relate this to appropriate failure mechanisms. Simulation results illustrate the effect of temperature on the assembly process of an electronic package and the lifetime of a flip-chip package.

Optimisation modelling for flip-chip solder joint reliability

This paper details and demonstrates integrated optimisation-reliability modelling for predicting the performance of solder joints in electronic packaging. This integrated modelling approach is used to identify efficiently and quickly the most suitable design parameters for solder joint performance during thermal cycling and is demonstrated on flip-chip components using “no-flow” underfills. To implement “optimisation in reliability” approach, the finite element simulation tool – PHYSICA, is coupled with optimisation and statistical tools. This resulting framework is capable of performing design optimisation procedures in an entirely automated and systematic manner.

Optimisation modelling for design of advanced interconnects

This paper describes a computational strategy for virtual design and prototyping of electronic components and assemblies. The design process is formulated as a design optimisation problem. The solution of this problem identifies not only the design which meets certain user specified requirements but also the design with the maximum possible improvement in particular aspects such as reliability, cost, etc. The modelling approach exploits numerical techniques for computational analysis (Finite Element Analysis) integrated with numerical methods for approximation, statistical analysis and optimisation. A software framework of modules that incorporates the required numerical techniques is developed and used to carry out the design optimisation modelling of fine-pitch flip-chip lead free solder interconnects.

iMarNet: an ocean biogeochemistry model intercomparison project within a common physical ocean modelling framework

Ocean biogeochemistry (OBGC) models span a wide variety of complexities, including highly simplified nutrient-restoring schemes, nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (NPZD) models that crudely represent the marine biota, models that represent a broader trophic structure by grouping organisms as plankton functional types (PFTs) based on their biogeochemical role (dynamic green ocean models) and ecosystem models that group organisms by ecological function and trait. OBGC models are now integral components of Earth system models (ESMs), but they compete for computing resources with higher resolution dynamical setups and with other components such as atmospheric chemistry and terrestrial vegetation schemes. As such, the choice of OBGC in ESMs needs to balance model complexity and realism alongside relative computing cost. Here we present an intercomparison of six OBGC models that were candidates for implementation within the next UK Earth system model (UKESM1). The models cover a large range of biological complexity (from 7 to 57 tracers) but all include representations of at least the nitrogen, carbon, alkalinity and oxygen cycles. Each OBGC model was coupled to the ocean general circulation model Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) and results from physically identical hindcast simulations were compared. Model skill was evaluated for biogeochemical metrics of global-scale bulk properties using conventional statistical techniques. The computing cost of each model was also measured in standardised tests run at two resource levels. No model is shown to consistently outperform all other models across all metrics. Nonetheless, the simpler models are broadly closer to observations across a number of fields and thus offer a high-efficiency option for ESMs that prioritise high-resolution climate dynamics. However, simpler models provide limited insight into more complex marine biogeochemical processes and ecosystem pathways, and a parallel approach of low-resolution climate dynamics and high-complexity biogeochemistry is desirable in order to provide additional insights into biogeochemistry–climate interactions.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part I: Modeling Auto- and Cross-Correlation

The work in this paper is of particular significance since it considers the problem of modelling cross- and auto-correlation in statistical process monitoring. The presence of both types of correlation can lead to fault insensitivity or false alarms, although in published literature to date, only autocorrelation has been broadly considered. The proposed method, which uses a Kalman innovation model, effectively removes both correlations. The paper (and Part 2 [2]) has emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and is of direct relevance to problems in several application areas including chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring.

Cyanopolyynes in hot cores: modelling G305.2+0.2

We present results from a time-dependent gas-phase chemical model of a hot core based on the physical conditions of G305.2+0.2. While the cyanopolyyne HC3N has been observed in hot cores, the longer chained species, HC5N, HC7N and HC9N, have not been considered as the typical hot-core species. We present results which show that these species can be formed under hot core conditions. We discuss the important chemical reactions in this process and, in particular, show that their abundances are linked to the parent species acetylene which is evaporated from icy grain mantles. The cyanopolyynes show promise as ‘chemical clocks’ which may aid future observations in determining the age of hot core sources. The abundance of the larger cyanopolyynes increases and decreases over relatively short time-scales, ~10^2.5 yr. We present results from a non-local thermodynamic equilibrium statistical equilibrium excitation model as a series of density, temperature and column density dependent contour plots which show both the line intensities and several line ratios. These aid in the interpretation of spectral-line data, even when there is limited line information available. In particular, non-detections of HC5N and HC7N in Walsh et al. are analysed and discussed.

PLS modelling and fault detection on the Tennessee Eastman benchmark

This paper describes the application of multivariate regression techniques to the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process for modelling and fault detection. Two methods are applied : linear partial least squares, and a nonlinear variant of this procedure using a radial basis function inner relation. The performance of the RBF networks is enhanced through the use of a recently developed training algorithm which uses quasi-Newton optimization to ensure an efficient and parsimonious network; details of this algorithm can be found in this paper. The PLS and PLS/RBF methods are then used to create on-line inferential models of delayed process measurements. As these measurements relate to the final product composition, these models suggest that on-line statistical quality control analysis should be possible for this plant. The generation of `soft sensors' for these measurements has the further effect of introducing a redundant element into the system, redundancy which can then be used to generate a fault detection and isolation scheme for these sensors. This is achieved by arranging the sensors and models in a manner comparable to the dedicated estimator scheme of Clarke et al. 1975, IEEE Trans. Pero. Elect. Sys., AES-14R, 465-473. The effectiveness of this scheme is demonstrated on a series of simulated sensor and process faults, with full detection and isolation shown to be possible for sensor malfunctions, and detection feasible in the case of process faults. Suggestions for enhancing the diagnostic capacity in the latter case are covered towards the end of the paper.

Factorial Design of Modelling Mix Proportion Parameters of Underwater Composite Cement Grouts

There is an increasing need to identify the rheological properties of cement grout using a simple test to determine the fluidity, and other properties of underwater applications such as washout resistance and compressive strength. This paper reviews statistical models developed using a factorial design that was carried out to model the influence of key parameters on properties affecting the performance of underwater cement grout. Such responses of fluidity included minislump and flow time measured by Marsh cone, washout resistance, unit weight, and compressive strength. The models are valid for mixes with 0.35–0.55 water-to-binder ratio (W/B), 0.053–0.141% of antiwashout admixture (AWA), by mass of water, and 0.4–1.8% (dry extract) of superplasticizer (SP), by mass of binder. Two types of underwater grout were tested: the first one made with cement and the second one made with 20% of pulverised fuel ash (PFA) replacement, by mass of binder. Also presented are the derived models that enable the identification of underlying primary factors and their interactions that influence the modelled responses of underwater cement grout. Such parameters can be useful to reduce the test protocol needed for proportioning of underwater cement grout. This paper attempts also to demonstrate the usefulness of the models to better understand trade-offs between parameters and compare the responses obtained from the various test methods that are highlighted.

Modelling the impact of antibiotic use and infection control practices on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a time-series analysis

Objectives: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen worldwide. A wide range of factors have been suggested to influence the spread of MRSA. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of antimicrobial drug use and infection control practices on nosocomial MRSA incidence in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland.

Methods: The present research involved the retrospective collection of monthly data on the usage of antibiotics and on infection control practices within the hospital over a 5 year period (January 2000–December 2004). A multivariate ARIMA (time-series analysis) model was built to relate MRSA incidence with antibiotic use and infection control practices.

Results: Analysis of the 5 year data set showed that temporal variations in MRSA incidence followed temporal variations in the use of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (coefficients = 0.005, 0.03, 0.002 and 0.003, respectively, with various time lags). Temporal relationships were also observed between MRSA incidence and infection control practices, i.e. the number of patients actively screened for MRSA (coefficient = -0.007), the use of alcohol-impregnated wipes (coefficient = -0.0003) and the bulk orders of alcohol-based handrub (coefficients = -0.04 and -0.08), with increased infection control activity being associated with decreased MRSA incidence, and between MRSA incidence and the number of new patients admitted with MRSA (coefficient = 0.22). The model explained 78.4% of the variance in the monthly incidence of MRSA.

Conclusions: The results of this study confirm the value of infection control policies as well as suggest the usefulness of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control MRSA.

Accuracy of LightCycler® SeptiFast for the detection and identification of pathogens in the blood of patients with suspected sepsis: a systematic review protocol

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of molecular diagnostics in improving the detection of life-threatening infection (sepsis). LightCycler® SeptiFast is a multipathogen probebased real-time PCR system targeting DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi present in blood samples within a few hours. We report here the protocol of the first systematic review of published clinical diagnostic accuracy studies of this technology when compared with blood culture in the setting of suspected sepsis. Methods/design: Data sources: the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA), the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED), The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, BIOSIS Previews, MEDION and the Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility Database (ARIF). Study selection: diagnostic accuracy studies that compare the real-time PCR technology with standard culture results performed on a patient's blood sample during the management of sepsis. Data extraction: three reviewers, working independently, will determine the level of evidence, methodological quality and a standard data set relating to demographics and diagnostic accuracy metrics for each study. Statistical analysis/data synthesis: heterogeneity of studies will be investigated using a coupled forest plot of sensitivity and specificity and a scatter plot in Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) space. Bivariate model method will be used to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity. The authors will investigate reporting biases using funnel plots based on effective sample size and regression tests of asymmetry. Subgroup analyses are planned for adults, children and infection setting (hospital vs community) if sufficient data are uncovered. Dissemination: Recommendations will be made to the Department of Health (as part of an open-access HTA report) as to whether the real-time PCR technology has sufficient clinical diagnostic accuracy potential to move forward to efficacy testing during the provision of routine clinical care.