Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Influence lines for bending under a ring load of a free shell, a shell embedded in a soft medium and a shell containing a soft core

Theoretical expressions for stresses and displacements have been derived for bending under a ring load of a free shell, a shell embedded in a soft medium, and a shell containing a soft core. Numerical work has been done for typical cases with an Elliot 803 Digital Computer and influence lines are drawn therefrom.

Stress concentration and load diffusion in rectangular panels with constant stress flanges

The stress concentration that occurs when load is diffused from a constant stress member into thin sheet is an important problem in the design of light weight structures. By using solutions in biharmonic polar-trigonometric series, the stress concentration can be effectively isolated so that highly accurate information necessary for design can be obtained. A method of analysis yielding high accuracy with limited effort is presented for rectangular panels with transverse edges free or supported by inextensional end ribs. Numerical data are given for panels with length twice the width.

A generalized Linear Programming based approach to optimal divisible load scheduling

In this paper we propose a general Linear Programming (LP) based formulation and solution methodology for obtaining optimal solution to the load distribution problem in divisible load scheduling. We exploit the power of the versatile LP formulation to propose algorithms that yield exact solutions to several very general load distribution problems for which either no solutions or only heuristic solutions were available. We consider both star (single-level tree) networks and linear daisy chain networks, having processors equipped with front-ends, that form the generic models for several important network topologies. We consider arbitrary processing node availability or release times and general models for communication delays and computation time that account for constant overheads such as start up times in communication and computation. The optimality of the LP based algorithms is proved rigorously.

Adaptive load control of the central processor in a distributed system with a star topology

The author presents adaptive control techniques for controlling the flow of real-time jobs from the peripheral processors (PPs) to the central processor (CP) of a distributed system with a star topology. He considers two classes of flow control mechanisms: (1) proportional control, where a certain proportion of the load offered to each PP is sent to the CP, and (2) threshold control, where there is a maximum rate at which each PP can send jobs to the CP. The problem is to obtain good algorithms for dynamically adjusting the control level at each PP in order to prevent overload of the CP, when the load offered by the PPs is unknown and varying. The author formulates the problem approximately as a standard system control problem in which the system has unknown parameters that are subject to change. Using well-known techniques (e.g., naive-feedback-controller and stochastic approximation techniques), he derives adaptive controls for the system control problem. He demonstrates the efficacy of these controls in the original problem by using the control algorithms in simulations of a queuing model of the CP and the load controls.

Mercury in Finnish forest lakes and reservoirs : anthropogenic contribution to the load and accumulation in fish

Yhteenveto: Elohopea Suomen metsäjärvissä ja tekoaltaissa: ihmisen vaikutus kuormitukseen ja pitoisuuksiin kaloissa.

Analysis of a thick plate with a circular hole resting on a smooth rigid bed and subjected to axisymmetric normal load

A solution for the stresses and displacements in an radially infinite thick plate having a circular hole, one face of which resting on a smooth rigid bed and the other face subjected to axisymmetric normal loading is given. The solution is obtained in terms of Fourier-Bessel series and integral for the Love's stress function. Numerical results are presented for one particular ratio of thickness of plate to the hole radius and loading. It is also shown that the Poisson's ratio has a predominant effect on certain stresses and displacements. The solution would be useful in the stress analysis of bolted joints.Eine Lösung für die Spannungen und Verschiebungen in einer radial, unendlich ausgedehnten, dicken Platte mit einem kreisförmigen Loch, wobei eine Seite auf einer ebenen, starren Unterlage aufliegt, die andere Seite durch eine achsensymmetrische Vertikallast belastet ist, wird angegeben. Die Lösung wird in Form von Fourier-Bessel-Reihen und Integralen der Loveschen Spannungsfunktion angegeben. Numerische Ergebnisse werden für ein bestimmtes Verhältnis der Plattendicke zum Lochradius sowie zur Belastung angegeben. Es wird auch gezeigt, daß das Poisssonsche Verhältnis einen besonderen Einfluß auf bestimmte Spannungen und Verschiebungen hat. Die Lösung ist anwendbar für die Spannungsermittlung von Bolzenverbindungen.

Adaptive optimal load balancing in a nonhomogeneous multiserver system with a central job scheduler

A model comprising several servers, each equipped with its own queue and with possibly different service speeds, is considered. Each server receives a dedicated arrival stream of jobs; there is also a stream of generic jobs that arrive to a job scheduler and can be individually allocated to any of the servers. It is shown that if the arrival streams are all Poisson and all jobs have the same exponentially distributed service requirements, the probabilistic splitting of the generic stream that minimizes the average job response time is such that it balances the server idle times in a weighted least-squares sense, where the weighting coefficients are related to the service speeds of the servers. The corresponding result holds for nonexponentially distributed service times if the service speeds are all equal. This result is used to develop adaptive quasi-static algorithms for allocating jobs in the generic arrival stream when the load parameters are unknown. The algorithms utilize server idle-time measurements which are sent periodically to the central job scheduler. A model is developed for these measurements, and the result mentioned is used to cast the problem into one of finding a projection of the root of an affine function, when only noisy values of the function can be observed

Vehicle Routing Problem with Load Compatibility Constraints

The major contribution of this paper is to introduce load compatibility constraints in the mathematical model for the capacitated vehicle routing problem with pickup and deliveries. The employee transportation problem in the Indian call centers and transportation of hazardous materials provided the motivation for this variation. In this paper we develop a integer programming model for the vehicle routing problem with load compatibility constraints. Specifically two types of load compatability constraints are introduced, namely mutual exclusion and conditional exclusion. The model is demonstrated with an application from the employee transportation problem in the Indian call centers.

Effect of drainage basin characteristics on the diffuse load of phosphorus and nitrogen.

Tiivistelmä: Valuma-alueen vaikutus fosforin ja typen hajakuormitukseen.

Prediction of load-deflection behaviour using fracture energy GF: A comparative study of two fracture models for concrete

Load-deflection curves for a notched beam under three-point load are determined using the Fictitious Crack Model (FCM) and Blunt Crack Model (BCM). Two values of fracture energy GF are used in this analysis: (i) GF obtained from the size effect law and (ii) GF obtained independently of the size effect. The predicted load-deflection diagrams are compared with the experimental ones obtained for the beams tested by Jenq and Shah. In addition, the values of maximum load (Pmax) obtained by the analyses are compared with the experimental ones for beams tested by Jenq and Shah and by Bažant and Pfeiffer. The results indicate that the descending portion of the load-deflection curve is very sensitive to the GF value used.

Load balancing algorithms for an extended hypercube

Reduction of the execution time of a job through equitable distribution of work load among the processors in a distributed system is the goal of load balancing. Performance of static and dynamic load balancing algorithms for the extended hypercube, is discussed. Threshold algorithms are very well-known algorithms for dynamic load balancing in distributed systems. An extension of the threshold algorithm, called the multilevel threshold algorithm, has been proposed. The hierarchical interconnection network of the extended hypercube is suitable for implementing the proposed algorithm. The new algorithm has been implemented on a transputer-based system and the performance of the algorithm for an extended hypercube is compared with those for mesh and binary hypercube networks