980 resultados para Global temperature changes.
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Desertification is a critical issue for Mediterranean drylands. Climate change is expected to aggravate its extension and severity by reinforcing the biophysical driving forces behind desertification processes: hydrology, vegetation cover and soil erosion. The main objective of this thesis is to assess the vulnerability of Mediterranean watersheds to climate change, by estimating impacts on desertification drivers and the watersheds’ resilience to them. To achieve this objective, a modeling framework capable of analyzing the processes linking climate and the main drivers is developed. The framework couples different models adapted to different spatial and temporal scales. A new model for the event scale is developed, the MEFIDIS model, with a focus on the particular processes governing Mediterranean watersheds. Model results are compared with desertification thresholds to estimate resilience. This methodology is applied to two contrasting study areas: the Guadiana and the Tejo, which currently present a semi-arid and humid climate. The main conclusions taken from this work can be summarized as follows: • hydrological processes show a high sensitivity to climate change, leading to a significant decrease in runoff and an increase in temporal variability; • vegetation processes appear to be less sensitive, with negative impacts for agricultural species and forests, and positive impacts for Mediterranean species; • changes to soil erosion processes appear to depend on the balance between changes to surface runoff and vegetation cover, itself governed by relationship between changes to temperature and rainfall; • as the magnitude of changes to climate increases, desertification thresholds are surpassed in a sequential way, starting with the watersheds’ ability to sustain current water demands and followed by the vegetation support capacity; • the most important thresholds appear to be a temperature increase of +3.5 to +4.5 ºC and a rainfall decrease of -10 to -20 %; • rainfall changes beyond this threshold could lead to severe water stress occurring even if current water uses are moderated, with droughts occurring in 1 out of 4 years; • temperature changes beyond this threshold could lead to a decrease in agricultural yield accompanied by an increase in soil erosion for croplands; • combined changes of temperature and rainfall beyond the thresholds could shift both systems towards a more arid state, leading to severe water stresses and significant changes to the support capacity for current agriculture and natural vegetation in both study areas.
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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica
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Backgroud: O International Panel on Climate Change prevê que o aumento da temperatura média global, até ao ano de 2100, varie entre 1,4 e 5,8ºC desconhecendo-se a evolução da adaptação da população a esta subida da temperatura. Em Portugal morre-se mais no Inverno que no Verão. Mas existem evidências de repercussões na mortalidade atribuíveis ao calor extremo. Este estudo procura conhecer os grupos etários e/ou populacionais que parecem revelar vulnerabilidade acrescida à exposição a temperaturas extremas e identificar indicadores de saúde apropriados para revelar esses mesmos efeitos. Métodos: Foram analisados dados de internamentos hospitalar e mortalidade por doenças cardiovasculares, respiratórias, renais, efeitos directos do frio e do calor, na população com 75 e mais anos de idade, nos distritos de Beja, Bragança e Faro, nos meses de Janeiro e Junho. Para os dados de morbilidade o período de análise foi 2002 a 2005 e para os de mortalidade de 2002 a 2004. Os dados meteorológicos analisados corresponderam aos valores da temperatura máxima e percentis da temperatura máxima, nos meses de Janeiro (P10) e Junho (P90). Os excessos de internamentos hospitalares, definidos como os dias em que ocorreram internamentos acima do valor da média mais 2 desvio padrão, foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90.Os dias com óbitos acima do valor da média foram relacionados com a distribuição das temperaturas extremas (frias abaixo do P10, quentes acima do P90). Os indicadores propostos foram baseados em Odds Ratios e intervalos de confiança que sugeriam as estimativas mais precisas. Resultados: O grupo que revelou maior vulnerabilidade às temperaturas extremas foi o grupo dos 75 e mais anos, com doenças cardiovasculares quando exposto a temperaturas extremas, nos 3 distritos observados.O nº de dias de excesso de óbitos por doenças cardiovasculares relacionados com temperaturas extremas foi o mais elevado comparado com as restantes causas de morte. O grupo etário dos 75 e mais anos com de doenças respiratórias também é vulnerável, às temperaturas extremas frias, nos 3 distritos. Verificaram-se dias de excessos de internamentos hospitalares e óbitos por esta causa de morte, relacionados com a exposição às temperaturas extremas frias. Em Junho, não se verificou excesso de mortalidade associado à exposição a temperaturas extremas por esta causa, em qualquer dos distritos analisados. Apenas se verificou a associação entre os dias de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares por doenças renais e o calor extremo, em Bragança. Conclusões: Foram encontradas associações estatísticas significativas entre dias de excesso de ocorrência de internamentos hospitalares ou óbitos por causa e exposição a temperaturas extremas frias e quentes possibilitando a identificação de um conjunto de indicadores de saúde ambiental apropriados para monitorizar a evolução dos padrões de morbilidade, mortalidade e susceptibilidade das populações ao longo do tempo.-------------------- Backgroud: International Panel on Climate Change estimates that the rise of mean global temperature varies between 1,4 e 5,8ºC until 2100, with unknowing evolution adaptation of populations. In Portugal we die more in Winter than in Summer time. But there are several evidences of mortality attributable to extreme eat. The proposal of this study is to know the age and/or populations groups that reveal more vulnerability to exposure to extreme temperature and identifying proper health indicators to reveal those effects. Methods: Data from hospital admissions and mortality caused by cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases and direct effects from direct exposure to extreme cold and heat, in population with 75 and more years, in Beja, Bragança and Faro districts, during January and June, were analysed. Analysis period for morbidity data was from 2002 to 2005 and form mortality was 2002 to 2004. Meteorological data analysed were maximum temperature and percentile of maximum temperature, from January (P10) and June (P90. Relationship between excess of hospital admission, defined as the days that occurred hospital admissions above mean value more 2 standards desviation and distribution of extreme temperatures were established (cold under P10 and heat above P90. Proposal indicators were based on Odds Ratios and confidence intervals, suggesting the most precises estimatives. Results: The most vulnerable group to extreme temperature were people with 75 or more years older with cardiovascular diseases, observed in the 3 districts. Number of days caused by excess cardiovascular mortality and extreme temperature were the most number of days between the other causes. The group with 75 or more years old with respiratory diseases is vulnerable too, especially to cold extreme temperature, in all the 3 districts. There were excess of days of hospital admissions and days with deaths, for this cause relating to extreme cold temperature. In June, does not funded excess of mortality associated to extreme temperature by this cause in any district of the in observation. Just was found relationship between days of hospital admissions caused by renal diseases in Bragança in days with extreme heat. Conclusions: Were found statistically significant associations between days of excess of hospital admissions or deaths and exposure to extreme cold and heat temperatures giving the possibility of identifying a core of environmental indicators proper to monitoring patterns and trends evolutions on morbidity, mortality and susceptibly of populations for a long time.
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Dissertation presented to obtain a Doctoral degree in Biology by Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica
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In this thesis, a predictive analytical and numerical modeling approach for the orthogonal cutting process is proposed to calculate temperature distributions and subsequently, forces and stress distributions. The models proposed include a constitutive model for the material being cut based on the work of Weber, a model for the shear plane based on Merchants model, a model describing the contribution of friction based on Zorev’s approach, a model for the effect of wear on the tool based on the work of Waldorf, and a thermal model based on the works of Komanduri and Hou, with a fraction heat partition for a non-uniform distribution of the heat in the interfaces, but extended to encompass a set of contributions to the global temperature rise of chip, tool and work piece. The models proposed in this work, try to avoid from experimental based values or expressions, and simplifying assumptions or suppositions, as much as possible. On a thermo-physical point of view, the results were affected not only by the mechanical or cutting parameters chosen, but also by their coupling effects, instead of the simplifying way of modeling which is to contemplate only the direct effect of the variation of a parameter. The implementation of these models was performed using the MATLAB environment. Since it was possible to find in the literature all the parameters for AISI 1045 and AISI O2, these materials were used to run the simulations in order to avoid arbitrary assumption.
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A thermal Energy Storage Unit (ESU) could be used to attenuate inherent temperature fluctuations of a cold finger, either from a cryocooler working or due to sudden income heat bursts. An ESU directly coupled to the cold source acts as a thermal buffer temporarily increasing its cooling capacity and providing a better thermal stability of the cold finger (“Power Booster mode”). The energy storage units presented here use an enthalpy reservoir based on the high latent heat of the liquid-vapour transition of neon in the temperature range 38 - 44 K to store up to 900 J, and that uses a 6 liters expansion volume at RT in order to work as a closed system. Experimental results in the power booster mode will be described: in this case, the liquid neon cell was directly coupled to the cold finger of the working cryocooler, its volume (12 cm3) allowing it to store 450 J at around 40 K. 10 W heat bursts were applied, leading to liquid evaporation, with quite reduced temperature changes. The liquid neon reservoir can also work as a temporary cold source to be used after stopping the cryocooler, allowing for a vibration-free environment. In this case the enthalpy reservoir implemented (24 cm3) was linked to the cryocooler cold finger through a gas gap heat switch for thermal coupling/decoupling of the cold finger. We will show that, by controlling the enthalpy reservoir’s pressure, 900 J can be stored at a constant temperature of 40 K as in a triple-point ESU.
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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial
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Рассмотрены три метода статистического прогнозирования ожидаемых изменений среднегодовой температуры воздуха в Тбилиси на ближайшие 50 лет до 2056 года (линейное прогнозирование, прогнозирования сглаженных функций с учетом двух периодичностей в ряде наблюдений, линейное прогнозирование с учетом одной периодичности в ряде наблюдений).
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Cecchetti et al. (2006) develop a method for allocating macroeconomic performance changes among the structure of the economy, variability of supply shocks and monetary policy. We propose a dual approach of their method by borrowing well-known tools from production theory, namely the Farrell measure and the Malmquist index. Following FÄare et al (1994) we propose a decomposition of the efficiency of monetary policy. It is shown that the global efficiency changes can be rewritten as the product of the changes in macroeconomic performance, minimum quadratic loss, and efficiency frontier.
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Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Igualdad, Salud y Políticas Sociales: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud (Consejería de Igualdad, Salud y Políticas Sociales/ Profesionales / Nuestro Compromiso por la Calidad / Procesos Asistenciales Integrados)
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En la cub.: Respuestas sencillas a las preguntas más frecuentes
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BACKGROUND Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) have been shown to help prevent febrile neutropenia in certain subgroups of cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, but their role in treating febrile neutropenia is controversial. The purpose of our study was to evaluate-in a prospective multicenter randomized clinical trial-the efficacy of adding G-CSF to broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment of patients with solid tumors and high-risk febrile neutropenia. METHODS A total of 210 patients with solid tumors treated with conventional-dose chemotherapy who presented with fever and grade IV neutropenia were considered to be eligible for the trial. They met at least one of the following high-risk criteria: profound neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count <100/mm(3)), short latency from previous chemotherapy cycle (<10 days), sepsis or clinically documented infection at presentation, severe comorbidity, performance status of 3-4 (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale), or prior inpatient status. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive the antibiotics ceftazidime and amikacin, with or without G-CSF (5 microg/kg per day). The primary study end point was the duration of hospitalization. All P values were two-sided. RESULTS Patients randomly assigned to receive G-CSF had a significantly shorter duration of grade IV neutropenia (median, 2 days versus 3 days; P = 0.0004), antibiotic therapy (median, 5 days versus 6 days; P = 0.013), and hospital stay (median, 5 days versus 7 days; P = 0.015) than patients in the control arm. The incidence of serious medical complications not present at the initial clinical evaluation was 10% in the G-CSF group and 17% in the control group (P = 0.12), including five deaths in each study arm. The median cost of hospital stay and the median overall cost per patient admission were reduced by 17% (P = 0.01) and by 11% (P = 0.07), respectively, in the G-CSF arm compared with the control arm. CONCLUSIONS Adding G-CSF to antibiotic therapy shortens the duration of neutropenia, reduces the duration of antibiotic therapy and hospitalization, and decreases hospital costs in patients with high-risk febrile neutropenia.
Temsirolimus in overtreated metastatic renal cancer with subsequent use of sunitinib: A case report.
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During the last decade, we have been developing new therapeutic strategies for the treatment of renal cancer, based on knowledge derived from molecular biology. We report a case of long-term renal metastatic cancer progression despite therapy with sunitinib and interleukin, which are the most active drugs in renal cancer. Disease stabilization for 58 weeks was achieved upon sequential use of temsirolimus, following the occurrence of disease progression during angiogenic therapy. The patient demonstrated excellent tolerance without marked symptoms for 10 months. Hypothyroidism and mumps-related adverse events were present. The survival time from diagnosis to lung metastasis was 8 years. Thus, this case demonstrates promising therapeutic effects of the sequential use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors during different stages of the disease.
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A single-step PCR assay with genus-specific primers for the amplification of a 223-bp region of the sequence encoding a 31-kDa immunogenetic Brucella abortus protein (BCSP31) was used for the rapid diagnosis of human brucellosis. We examined peripheral blood from 47 patients, with a total of 50 cases of brucellosis, and a group of 60 control subjects, composed of patients with febrile syndromes of several etiologies other than brucellosis, asymptomatic subjects seropositive for Brucella antibodies, and healthy subjects. Diagnosis of brucellosis was established in 35 cases (70%) by isolation of Brucella in blood culture and in the other 15 cases (30%) by clinical and serological means. The sensitivity of our PCR assay was 100%, since it correctly identified all 50 cases of brucellosis, regardless of the duration of the disease, the positivity of the blood culture, or the presence of focal forms. The specificity of the test was 98.3%, and the only false-positive result was for a patient who had had brucellosis 2 months before and possibly had a self-limited relapse. In those patients who relapsed, the results of our PCR assay were positive for both the initial infection and the relapse, becoming negative once the relapse treatment was completed and remaining negative in the follow-up tests at 2, 4, and 6 months. In conclusion, these results suggest that the PCR assay is rapid and easy to perform and highly sensitive and specific, and it may therefore be considered a useful tool for diagnosis of human brucellosis.
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Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.