920 resultados para Global Warming, Building Simulation, Internal Load Density, Adaptation Strategies
Resumo:
Two competing hypotheses have been suggested to explain thermal sensitivity of lizards to environmental conditions. These are the static and the labile hypotheses. The static hypothesis posits that thermal physiology is evolutionary conservative and consequently relatively insensitive to directional selection. Contrarily, the labile hypothesis states that thermal physiology does respond readily to directional selection in some lizard taxa. In this paper, we tested both hypotheses among species of Liolaemus lizards. The genus Liolaemus is diverse with about 200 species, being broadly distributed from central Peru to Tierra del Fuego at the southern end of South America. Data of field body temperature (T(b)) from Liolaemus species were collected from the literature. Based on the distributional range of the species we also collected data of mean annual ambient temperatures. We observed that both the traditional analysis and the phylogenetic approach indicate that in the genus Liolaemus T(b) of species varies in a manner that is consistent with ecological gradient of ambient temperature. The data suggest that the thermal physiology of Liolaemus lizards is evolutionarily flexible, and that this plasticity has been partially responsible for the colonization of a wide array of thermal environments. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Increasing energy use has caused many environmental problems including global warming. Energy use is growing rapidly in developing countries and surprisingly a remarkable portion of it is associated with consumed energy to keep the temperature comfortable inside the buildings. Therefore, identifying renewable technologies for cooling and heating is essential. This study introduced applications of steel sheets integrated into the buildings to save energy based on existing technologies. In addition, the proposed application was found to have a considerable chance of market success. Also, satisfying energy needs for space heating and cooling in a single room by using one of the selected applications in different Köppen climate classes was investigated to estimate which climates have a proper potential for benefiting from the application. This study included three independent parts and the results related to each part have been used in the next part. The first part recognizes six different technologies through literature review including Cool Roof, Solar Chimney, Steel Cladding of Building, Night Radiative Cooling, Elastomer Metal Absorber, and Solar Distillation. The second part evaluated the application of different technologies by gathering the experts’ ideas via performing a Delphi method. The results showed that the Solar Chimney has a proper chance for the market. The third part simulated both a solar chimney and a solar chimney with evaporation which were connected to a single well insulated room with a considerable thermal mass. The combination was simulated as a system to estimate the possibility of satisfying cooling needs and heating needs in different climate classes. A Trombe-wall was selected as a sample design for the Solar Chimney and was simulated in different climates. The results implied that the solar chimney had the capability of reducing the cooling needs more than 25% in all of the studied locations and 100% in some locations with dry or temperate climate such as Mashhad, Madrid, and Istanbul. It was also observed that the heating needs were satisfied more than 50% in all of the studied locations, even for the continental climate such as Stockholm and 100% in most locations with a dry climate. Therefore, the Solar Chimney reduces energy use, saves environment resources, and it is a cost effective application. Furthermore, it saves the equipment costs in many locations. All the results mentioned above make the solar chimney a very practical and attractive tool for a wide range of climates.
Resumo:
Given the environmental concern over global warming that occurs mainly by emission of CO2 from the combustion of petroleum, coal and natural gas research focused on alternative and clean energy generation has been intensified. Among these, the highlight the solid oxide fuel cell intermediate temperature (IT-SOFC). For application as electrolyte of the devices doped based CeO2 with rare earth ions (TR+ 3) have been quite promising because they have good ionic conductivity and operate at relatively low temperatures (500-800 ° C). In this work, studied the Ce1-xEuxO2-δ (x = 0,1, 0,2 and 0,3), solid solutions synthesized by the polymeric precursor method to be used as solid electrolyte. It was also studied the processing steps of these powders (milling, compaction and two step sintering) in order to obtain dense sintered pellets with reduced grain size and homogeneous microstructure. For this, the powders were characterized by thermal analysis, X-ray diffraction, particle size distribution and scanning electrons microscopy, since the sintered samples were characterized by dilatometry, scanning electrons microscopy, density and grain size measurements. By x-ray diffraction, it was verified the formation of the solid solution for all compositions. Crystallites in the nanometric scale were found for both sintering routes but the two step sintering presented significant reduction in the average grain size
Resumo:
The gradual inclusion of biofuels is a necessary change that countries must include in their energy mixes. Energy sources still widely used in the world, such as oil and coal, are endowed with a high pollution load to the environment, bringing damages to the water, to the air and to humans as well. In addition, although there are conflicting studies, they are also identified as major causes of the greenhouse effect and the global warming phenomenon. They are, moreover, finite sources of energy, given that its reserves will surely run out. However, even if the introduction of biofuels, such as ethanol, in the energy mix is crucial for the survival of the present and future populations, this insertion cannot settle so disorderly and, thus, one must ensure the quality of these resources and promote transparency in international trade. In this manner, a certification process for ethanol is essential to attest that this biofuel meets the sustainable requirements defined for its production. Hence, this study sought to address the importance of the adoption of certification in the ethanol industry, according to the principle of sustainable development, by analyzing the evolution of its concept, its combination with the fundamental objectives sculptured in the Constitution of 1988, its regulation under Brazilian laws and the need for a balance between economic activities and the mentioned principle. The work also encompassed the criteria used to establish certification standards and their participating actors, combined with a study of ongoing initiatives. Finally, the consequences of the adoption of a certification process for ethanol in Brazil were presented, both in terms of sustainable development and in international trade
Resumo:
At the semiarid regions of developing countries the rural population has always been vulnerable to the climatic variations e its consequences. The effects of the semiarid climate, together with other biophysics, social and political-economic factors, impair the agricultural production, generating a situation of food insecurity and poverty in the rural areas. With the occurrence of climate change, natural resources of the semiarid regions can became scarcer, what would directly affect the agricultural production and those who depend on it. Therefore, the present study sought to study one of the most susceptible areas to the effects of the semiarid climate and desertification of Rio Grande do Norte, the potiguar s Serido. The study aimed to analyze the socioeconomic and environmental factors that put farmers in a position of vulnerability to the effects of climate; assess their perceptions about climate variations that have already occurred and their knowledge about climate change and global warming, also to identify which adaptation strategies to climate they have adopted at the rural establishment. The survey was conducted in 29 communities of four counties of the potiguar s Serido Caico, Parelhas, Lagoa Nova and Acari. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local leaders and 241 questionnaires were applied with the family farmers. It was found that in addition to environmental factors such as the scarcity of water resources and climatic conditions, other factors such as the environmental degradation, the small size of the properties, the lack of technical assistance and financial resources and also the low education levels reduce the resilience capacity of family farming to the effects of the Semiarid climate. With the occurrence of climate change, the challenges for family farming at Serido will intensify. If farmers cannot adapt, the impacts may preclude this category of agricultural production causing serious harm to food security and further increasing the vulnerability situation of these populations. Although the farmers perceived changes in climate, the lack resources and information appears as the main reasons preventing the adoption of adaptation strategies. The lack of knowledge about climate change and global warming and the impacts that these phenomena may cause are also limiting factors for adaptation. It is therefore essential to identify the factors that influence the adoption of adaptation strategies, and seek alternatives to living with the semiarid that can strengthen the resilience of family farming and social reproduction that allow agricultural segment, even in a climate change scenario
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Resumo:
An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.
Resumo:
Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.
Resumo:
Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.
Resumo:
Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Resumo:
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)