Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

Hydrology and climatology at Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia: complex responses to climatic forcings over the last 25,000 years

Diatom, geochemical and isotopic data provide a record of environmental change in Laguna La Gaiba, lowland Bolivia (17°450S, 57°350W), over the last ca. 25 000 years. High-resolution diatom analysis around the Last Glacial–Interglacial Transition provides new insights into this period of change. The full and late glacial lake was generally quite shallow, but with evidence of periodic flooding. At about 13 100 cal a BP, just before the start of the Younger Dryas chronozone, the diatoms indicate shallower water conditions, but there is a marked change at about 12 200 cal a BP indicating the onset of a period of high variability, with rising water levels punctuated by periodic drying. From ca. 11 800 to 10 000 cal a BP, stable, deeper water conditions persisted. There is evidence for drying in the early to middle Holocene, but not as pronounced as that reported from elsewhere in the southern hemisphere tropics of South America. This was followed by the onset of wetter conditions in the late Holocene consistent with insolation forcing. Conditions very similar to present were established about 2100 cal a BP. A complex response to both insolation forcing and millennial-scale events originating in the North Atlantic is noted.

Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface

There is a strong drive towards hyperresolution earth system models in order to resolve finer scales of motion in the atmosphere. The problem of obtaining more realistic representation of terrestrial fluxes of heat and water, however, is not just a problem of moving to hyperresolution grid scales. It is much more a question of a lack of knowledge about the parameterisation of processes at whatever grid scale is being used for a wider modelling problem. Hyperresolution grid scales cannot alone solve the problem of this hyperresolution ignorance. This paper discusses these issues in more detail with specific reference to land surface parameterisations and flood inundation models. The importance of making local hyperresolution model predictions available for evaluation by local stakeholders is stressed. It is expected that this will be a major driving force for improving model performance in the future. Keith BEVEN, Hannah CLOKE, Florian PAPPENBERGER, Rob LAMB, Neil HUNTER

A combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system designed to determine noble gas palaeo-temperatures from stalagmite samples

This paper presents a novel extraction device for water and noble gases from speleothem samples for noble gas paleotemperature determination. The “combined vacuum crushing and sieving (CVCS) system” was designed to reduce the atmospheric noble gas contents from air inclusions in speleothem samples by up to 2 orders of magnitude without adsorbing atmospheric noble gases onto the freshly produced grain surfaces, a process that had often hampered noble gas temperature (NGT) determination in the past. We also present the results from first performance tests of the CVCS system processing stalagmite samples grown at a known temperature. This temperature is reliably reproduced by the NGTs derived from Ar, Kr, and Xe extracted from the samples. The CVCS system is, therefore, suitable for routine determinations of accurate NGTs. In combination with stalagmite dating, these NGTs will allow reconstructing past regional temperature evolutions, and also support the interpretation of the often complex stable isotope records preserved in the stalagmites' calcite.

Examining the relationships between Holocene climate change, hydrology, and human society in Ireland

This thesis explores human-environment interactions during the Mid-Late Holocene in raised bogs in central Ireland. The raised bogs of central Ireland are widely-recognised for their considerable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological resources: research over the past few decades has established the potential for such sites to preserve sensitive records of Holocene climatic variability expressed as changes in bog surface wetness (BSW); meanwhile archaeological investigations over the past century have uncovered hundreds of peatland archaeological features dating from the Neolithic through to the Post-Medieval period including wooden trackways, platforms, and deposits of high-status metalwork. Previous studies have attempted to explore the relationship between records of past environmental change and the occurrence of peatland archaeological sites reaching varying conclusions. More recently, environmentally-deterministic models of human-environment interaction in Irish raised bogs at the regional scale have been explicitly tested leading to the conclusion that there is no relationship between BSW and past human activity. These relationships are examined in more detail on a site-by-site basis in this thesis. To that end, testate amoebae-derived BSW records from nine milled former raised bogs in central Ireland were produced from sites with known and dated archaeological records. Relationships between BSW records and environmental conditions within the study area were explored through both the development of a new central Ireland testate amoebae transfer function and through comparisons between recent BSW records and instrumental weather data. Compilation of BSW records from the nine fossil study sites show evidence both for climate forcing, particularly during 3200-2400 cal BP, as well as considerable inter-site variability. Considerable inter-site variability was also evident in the archaeological records of the same sites. Whilst comparisons between BSW and archaeological records do not show a consistent linear relationship, examination of records on a site-by-site basis were shown to reveal interpretatively important contingent relationships. It is concluded therefore, that future research on human-environment interactions should focus on individual sites and should utilise theoretical approaches from the humanities in order to avoid the twin pitfalls of masking important local patterns of change, and of environmental determinism.

Climate change and hydrology

This book chapter summarises the evolution of research into climate change and hydrology at the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford.

Transit times – the link between hydrology and water quality at the catchment scale

In spite of trying to understand processes in the same spatial domain, the catchment hydrology and water quality scientific communities are relatively disconnected and so are their respective models. This is emphasized by an inadequate representation of transport processes, in both catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. While many hydrological models at the catchment scale only account for pressure propagation and not for mass transfer, catchment scale water quality models are typically limited by overly simplistic representations of flow processes. With the objective of raising awareness for this issue and outlining potential ways forward we provide a non-technical overview of (1) the importance of hydrology-controlled transport through catchment systems as the link between hydrology and water quality; (2) the limitations of current generation catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models; (3) the concept of transit times as tools to quantify transport and (4) the benefits of transit time based formulations of solute transport for catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models. There is emerging evidence that an explicit formulation of transport processes, based on the concept of transit times has the potential to improve the understanding of the integrated system dynamics of catchments and to provide a stronger link between catchment-scale hydrological and water quality models.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.

Integrated marine gravity field in the Brazilian coast from altimeter-derived sea surface gradient and shipborne gravity

Sea surface gradients derived from the Geosat and ERS-1 satellite altimetry geodetic missions were integrated with marine gravity data from the National Geophysical Data Center and Brazilian national surveys. Using the least squares collocation method, models of free-air gravity anomaly and geoid height were calculated for the coast of Brazil with a resolution of 2` x 2`. The integration of satellite and shipborne data showed better statistical results in regions near the coast than using satellite data only, suggesting an improvement when compared to the state-of-the-art global gravity models. Furthermore, these results were obtained with considerably less input information than was used by those reference models. The least squares collocation presented a very low content of high-frequency noise in the predicted gravity anomalies. This may be considered essential to improve the high resolution representation of the gravity field in regions of ocean-continent transition. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Moho map of South America from receiver functions and surface waves

We estimate crustal structure and thickness of South America north of roughly 40 degrees S. To this end, we analyzed receiver functions from 20 relatively new temporary broadband seismic stations deployed across eastern Brazil. In the analysis we include teleseismic and some regional events, particularly for stations that recorded few suitable earthquakes. We first estimate crustal thickness and average Poisson`s ratio using two different stacking methods. We then combine the new crustal constraints with results from previous receiver function studies. To interpolate the crustal thickness between the station locations, we jointly invert these Moho point constraints, Rayleigh wave group velocities, and regional S and Rayleigh waveforms for a continuous map of Moho depth. The new tomographic Moho map suggests that Moho depth and Moho relief vary slightly with age within the Precambrian crust. Whether or not a positive correlation between crustal thickness and geologic age is derived from the pre-interpolation point constraints depends strongly on the selected subset of receiver functions. This implies that using only pre-interpolation point constraints (receiver functions) inadequately samples the spatial variation in geologic age. The new Moho map also reveals an anomalously deep Moho beneath the oldest core of the Amazonian Craton.

Magnetotelluric deep soundings, gravity and geoid in the south Sao Francisco craton: Geophysical indicators of cratonic lithosphere rejuvenation and crustal underplating

In the south Sao Francisco craton a circular and 8-m amplitude geoid anomaly coincides with the outcropping terrain of an Archean-Paleoproterozoic basement. Broadband magnetotelluric (MT) data inversions of two radial profiles within the positive geoid and Bouguer gravity anomaly yield geo-electrical crustal sections, whereby the lower crust is locally more conductive (10 to 100 Omega m) in spatial coincidence with a denser lower crust modeled by the gravity data. This anomalous lower crust may have resulted from magmatic underplating, associated with Mesoarchean and Proterozoic episodes of tholeiitic dike intrusion. Long-period MT soundings reveal a low electrical resistivity mantle (20 to 200 Omega m) from depths beyond 120 km. Forward geoid modeling, using the scope of the low electrical resistivity region within the mantle as a constraint, entails a density increase (40 to 50 kg/m(3)) possibly due to Fe enrichment of mantle minerals. However, this factor alone does not explain the observed resistivity. A supplemented presence of small amounts of percolated carbonatite melting (similar to 0.005 vol.%), dissolved water and enhanced oxygen fugacity within the peridotitic mantle are viable agents that could explain the less resistive upper mantle. We propose that metasomatic processes confined in the sub-continental lithospheric mantle foster the conditions for a low degree melting with variable CO(2), H(2)O and Fe content. Even though the precise age of this metasomatism is unknown it might be older than the Early Cretaceous based on the evidence that a high-degree of melting in a lithospheric mantle impregnated with carbonatites originated the tholeiitic dike intrusions dispersed from the southeastern border of the Sao Francisco craton, during the onset of the lithosphere extension and break-up of the western Gondwana. The proxies are the NE Parana and Espinhaco (130 Ma, Ar/Ar ages) tholeiitic dikes, which contain (similar to 3%) carbonatites in their composition. The occurrence of a positive geoid anomaly (+ 10 m) and pre-tholeiites (age > 138 Ma), carbonatites and kimberlites along the west African continental margin (Angola and Namibia) reinforces the presumed age of the Sao Francisco-Congo craton rejuvenation to be prior to its fragmentation in the Lower Cretaceous. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.