Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.

Reconstruction of Holocene vegetation dynamics at Lac de Bretaye, a high-mountain lake in the Swiss Alps

A deeper understanding of past vegetation dynamics is required to better assess future vegetation responses to global warming in the Alps. Lake sediments from Lac de Bretaye, a small subalpine lake in the Northern Swiss Alps (1780 m a.s.l.), were analysed to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics for the entire Holocene, using pollen, macrofossil and charcoal analyses as main proxies. The results show that timberline reached the lake’s catchment area at around 10,300 cal. BP, supporting the hypothesis of a delayed postglacial afforestation in the Northern Alps. At the same time, thermophilous trees such as Ulmus, Tilia and Acer established in the lowlands and expanded to the altitude of the lake, forming distinctive boreo-nemoral forests with Betula, Pinus cembra and Larix decidua. From about 5000 to 3500 cal. BP, thermophilous trees declined because of increasing human land use, mainly driven by the mass expansion of Picea abies and severe anthropogenic fire activity. From the Bronze Age onwards (c. 4200–2800 cal. BP), grazing indicators and high values for charcoal concentration and influx attest an intensifying human impact, fostering the expansion of Alnus viridis and Picea abies. Hence, biodiversity in alpine meadows increased, whereas forest diversity declined, as can be seen in other regional records. We argue that the anticipated climate change and decreasing human impact in the Alps today will not only lead to an upward movement of timberline with consequent loss of area for grasslands, but also to a disruption of Picea abies forests, which may allow the re-expansion of thermophilous tree species.

Stratigraphic first occurrence of Emiliania huxleyi in sediments of the Chatham Rise (Table 2)

A quantitative analysis was carried out of planktonic diatoms (biogenic opal) and calcareous nannofossils (biogenic calcite) in late Quaternary sediments (MIS 1-6) from four cores along a N-S transect east of New Zealand from 39°50'S to 50°04'S across the E-W-trending submarine ridge, the Chatham Rise. This was done to trace movements of oceanic fronts and to improve calcareous nannofossil stratigraphy for the last 130 000 yr in the SW Pacific. Sites ODP 1123 and Q 858 are below present day subtropical surface waters north of Chatham Rise. Site DSDP 594 is below present-day mixed temperate-subantarctic surface water south of the rise, and site ODP 1120 is below subantarctic surface water. The more diverse and opportunistic planktonic diatoms provided marker species for subtropical surface waters (Alveus marina, Fragilariopsis doliolus, Rhizosolenia bergonii and Azpeitia nodulifer) and others for subantarctic surface waters (Nitzschia kerguelensis, Thalassiosira lentiginosa). Application of these tracers permits the following conclusions: (1) subtropical conditions persisted north of Chatham Rise throughout the past 130 000 yr, in spite of the cooling of surface waters during colder periods; (2) during warm times (MIS 5 and MIS 3, and in MIS 1), the sporadic occurrence of subtropical species south of Chatham Rise indicates occasional admixture of subtropical surface waters that far south; (3) subantarctic waters extended to the southern slopes of the Chatham Rise during MIS 5b, late MIS 5a to early MIS 4, during the warmer time intervals in early MIS 3, and during latest MIS 3 to early MIS 2; (4) subantarctic frontal conditions existed over southern Chatham Rise during early MIS 4 and late MIS 3 to early MIS 2; and (5) it is probable that during cooler times, MIS 6, MIS 5b, and in MIS 2, intensified particle transport from the Bounty Trough to the northern flank of Chatham Rise occurred by intensified boundary currents. The larger abundance fluctuations in both microfossil groups at the sites south of Chatham Rise than north of Chatham Rise reflect northward shifts of the Circumpolar Subantarctic Water (CSW) and a contemporaneous disappearance of Australasian Subantarctic Water (ASW), implying an elevated temperature gradient between the surface water masses north and south of the Chatham Rise at the times of such northward shifts of CSW. Calcareous nannofossils are less diverse than diatoms, and are less specialised. Some calcareous nannofossil species show abundance shifts at the same time at different latitudes. Two of these abundance shifts can be used for correlation between subtropical and subantarctic sediments in the SW Pacific: (1) reversal in the relative abundance of Calcidiscus leptoporus and Coccolithus pelagicus associated with the MIS 2/1 boundary; and (2) drop in abundance of Gephyrocapsa muellerae or medium-sized Gephyrocapsa at the MIS 4/3 boundary. An additional abundance shift seems to be restricted to subtropical to mixed temperate-subtropical-subantarctic surface waters: (3) increase in abundance of G. muellerae or medium-sized Gephyrocapsa at the beginning of MIS 2 below the Okareka tephra.

(Table 1) Stratigraphic datums from ODP Site 130-806

A 2 m.y. oxygen isotope record of Globigerinoides sacculifer from the Ontong Java Plateau, based on cores from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 130, is dated by matching variations to an orbital template. The procedure allows us to present the most complete Quaternary record available for the western equatorial Pacific. The template-generating algorithm describes a balance between growth and melting of ice. Following basic Milankovitch theory, ice growth is taken as constant, while melting is taken to depend on summer insolation, current ice mass, and average past ice mass. Template settings must be changed once, between 1 and 1.2 Ma, to reflect a major shift in climate. Template fits are strikingly good over much of the record and can be used to detect and fill gaps from core breaks and other disturbances. One result of template dating is an exact age for the Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic reversal boundary, at 790+/-5 ka, as well as several other precise dates (900 ka for the middle Pleistocene climate shift; 1070, 1240, and 1450 ka for isotope stages 31, 37, and 47, respectively). Sedimentation rates fluctuate between 18 and 28 m/m.y., a ca. 400 ka cycle being the most prominent. Major anomalies arise within the transitional regime (1.2 to 1 Ma). The origin of the cycles is unknown; we propose productivity variations in the western equatorial Pacific.