Estimação volumétrica de resíduos lenhosos de madeira em uma floresta tropical através da Krigagem Ordinária, Paragominas, Estado do Pará

O objetivo deste trabalho foi testar a aplicação de modelos da geoestatística para estimar o volume de resíduos lenhosos de madeira em uma área de floresta manejada no município de Paragominas, estado do Pará. Os métodos de Warren e Olsen e da Krigagem Ordinária foram utilizados para estimar o volume dos resíduos florestais em pontos amostrados e não amostrados. Os resultados confirmam que a aplicação dos métodos foi adequada, uma vez que a estimativa para o volume dos resíduos, da área em estudo, apresentou uma pequena diferença 5,2%, em relação ao valor real obtido.

A efetividade das unidades de conservação e das terras indígenas na contenção do desflorestamento na Amazônia Legal

Foi investigada a efetividade das Unidades de Conservação e das Terras Indígenas na contenção do desflorestamento na Amazônia Legal. A análise dos dados foi processada em ambiente SIG (Sistema de Informações Geográficas) no programa ArcGis 9.3. O modelo estatístico desenvolvido para testar a efetividade das Áreas Protegidas se baseou na diferença entre o desflorestamento interno observado nas Áreas Protegidas e o desflorestamento interno nas Áreas Protegidas, estimado a partir do entorno de cinco quilômetros e de dez quilômetros das Áreas Protegidas. Verificou-se que, em área de floresta, até o ano de 2007, as Áreas Protegidas ocupavam aproximadamente 40% da Amazônia Legal. As Unidades de Conservação de Proteção Integral ocupavam 7,5% da Amazônia Legal, as Unidades de Conservação de Uso Sustentável ocupavam 11,2% da Amazônia Legal e as Terras Indígenas ocupavam 21% da Amazônia Legal. Foi observada uma diferença significativa na proporção de área ocupada pelos tipos de Áreas Protegidas entre os estados da Amazônia Legal. Notou-se, ainda, que a proporção do desflorestamento interno nas Unidades de Conservação de Proteção Integral e nas Terras Indígenas foi menor do que nas Unidades de Conservação de Uso Sustentável. A proporção do desflorestamento interno das Áreas Protegidas foi muito menor do que a proporção de desflorestamento externo à essas áreas, nos estados do Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia. Segundo o modelo estatístico de efetividade, 62,3% das Áreas Protegidas analisadas eram efetivas na contenção do desflorestamento. Esse modelo constitui importante instrumento para direcionar o planejamento de políticas públicas de conservação da Amazônia Legal, pois indica as Áreas Protegidas mais ameaçadas pelo desflorestamento. É imprescindível estabelecer com urgência a criação de mais Áreas Protegidas na Amazônia Legal e a consolidação das Áreas Protegidas existentes, já que não se sabe até quando essas áreas conseguirão se manter sem o mínimo necessário à sua sustentação.

Quantitative genetic study of age at subsequent rebreeding in Nellore cattle by using survival analysis

The continuous trait age at subsequent rebreeding (ASR) was evaluated using survival analysis in Nellore breed cows that conceived for the first time at approximately 14 months of age. This methodology was chosen because the restricted breeding season produces censored data. The dataset contained 2885 records of ASR (in days). Records of females that did not produce calves in the following year after being exposed to a sire were considered censored (48.3% of the total). The statistical model used was a Weibull mixed survival model, which included fixed effects of contemporary groups (CG) and period and a random effect of individual animal. The effect of contemporary groups on ASR was significant (P < 0.01). Heritabilities obtained for ASR were 0.03 and 0.04 in logarithmic and original scales, respectively. These results indicate that the genetic selection response for subsequent reproduction of 2-year-old Nellore breed females is not expected to be effective based on survival analysis. Furthermore, these results suggest that environmental improvement is fundamental to this important trait. It should be highlighted that an increase in the average date of birth can produce an adverse effect in the future, since this cannot be compensated by genetic improvement.

From west to east: Environmental influences on the rate and pathways of Polynesian colonization

The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. long pause') seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Nino conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

Genotype by environment interaction for post-weaning weight gain, scrotal circumference, and muscling score of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Parâmetros genéticos para características de desempenho e reprodutivas de aves poedeiras por inferência bayesiana

Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV

Multivariate analysis for animal selection in experimental research

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic parameters and investigation of genotype x environment interactions in Nellore x Hereford crossbred for resistance to cattle ticks in different regions of Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Reatividade e tolerância ao calor de fêmeas ovinas de diferentes grupos genéticos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Multivariate analysis for selecting animals for experimental research

Background Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.

Avaliação dos parâmetros do índice de qualidade de água segundo o modelo ARIMA

Time series tendencies are an important tool for different sectors such as the scientific community, industries and environmental protection agencies who can evaluate the variability of a specific parameter in time, what is very important piece of information for establishing corrective and preventive actions. This work presents a time series model of main physical, chemical and biological parameters of the Water Quality Index (WQI) determined for different selected points of a hydrographical basin form May/2006 to Aug/2010. The statistical model Arima enabled a better understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes that most clearly influences WQI. The Arima model allowed the assessment of the trend of several parameters used in the calculation of the WQI, showing that dissolved oxygen, turbidity, total nitrogen, and fecal E. coli were highly correlated and are the parameters that caused the index changes over time.

Growth of Pleurotus ostreatus in culture media based on formulated straw or grass

Mycelial growth strains of POS 98/38, POS 09/100, POS 09/101, and POS 09/102 of Pleurotus ostreatus were evaluated in culture media with various compositions based on extracts of substrates formulated with sugar cane bagasse together with straws and grasses, and with or without nitrogen supplementation. The evaluation was performed during incubation regularly with a ruler graduated in millimeters until total colonization of the culture medium contained in Petri dishes. The statistical model explaining the kinetics of mycelial growth of mushroom strains of P. ostreatus as a deterministic component has an exponential Gompertz function. The results show that the culture medium with sugar cane straw and brizantha grass (supplemented) showed the highest rates of mycelial growth, regardless of strain used compared to wheat straw-based culture media with had the lowest velocities of growth, regardless of supplementation and strains studied.

Estimativa da irradiação solar global pelo método de Angstrom-Prescott e técnicas de aprendizado de máquinas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Emissão de CO2 do solo em áreas de restauração na Mata Atlântica

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Stability in The Proportion of Harbor Seals Hauled Out Under Locally Ideal Conditions

We monitored the haul-out behavior of 68 radio-tagged harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) during the molt season at two Alaskan haul-out sites (Grand Island, August-September 1994; Nanvak Bay, August-September 2000). For each site, we created a statistical model of the proportion of seals hauled out as a function of date, time of day, tide, and weather covariates. Using these models, we identified the conditions that would result in the greatest proportion of seals hauled out. Although those “ideal conditions” differed between sites, the proportion of seals predicted to be hauled out under those conditions was very similar (81.3% for Grand Island and 85.7% for Nanvak Bay). The similar estimates for both sites suggest that haul-out proportions under locally ideal conditions may be constant between years and geographic regions, at least during the molt season.