Duration-dependent effects of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on anodal tDCS induced motor cortex plasticity in older adults: a group and individual perspective

The brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism and stimulation duration are thought to play an important role in modulating motor cortex plasticity induced by non-invasive brain stimulation (NBS). In the present study we sought to determine whether these factors interact or exert independent effects in older adults. Fifty-four healthy older adults (mean age = 66.85 years) underwent two counterbalanced sessions of 1.5 mA anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (atDCS), applied over left M1 for either 10 or 20 min. Single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was used to assess corticospinal excitability (CSE) before and every 5 min for 30 min following atDCS. On a group level, there was an interaction between stimulation duration and BDNF genotype, with Met carriers (n = 13) showing greater post-intervention potentiation of CSE compared to Val66Val homozygotes homozygotes (n = 37) following 20 min (p = 0.002) but not 10 min (p = 0.219) of stimulation. Moreover, Met carriers, but not Val/Val homozygotes, exhibited larger responses to TMS (p = 0.046) after 20 min atDCS, than following 10 min atDCS. On an individual level, two-step cluster analysis revealed a considerable degree of inter-individual variability, with under half of the total sample (42%) showing the expected potentiation of CSE in response to atDCS across both sessions. Intra-individual variability in response to different durations of atDCS was also apparent, with one-third of the total sample (34%) exhibiting LTP-like effects in one session but LTD-like effects in the other session. Both the inter-individual (p = 0.027) and intra-individual (p = 0.04) variability was associated with BDNF genotype. In older adults, the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism along with stimulation duration appears to play a role in modulating tDCS-induced motor cortex plasticity. The results may have implications for the design of NBS protocols for healthy and diseased aged populations.

UK publicly funded Clinical Trials Units supported a controlled access approach to share individual participant data but highlighted concerns

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate current data sharing activities of UK publicly funded Clinical Trial Units (CTUs) and identify good practices and barriers.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Web-based survey of Directors of 45 UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC)-registered CTUs.

RESULTS: Twenty-three (51%) CTUs responded: Five (22%) of these had an established data sharing policy and eight (35%) specifically requested consent to use patient data beyond the scope of the original trial. Fifteen (65%) CTUs had received requests for data, and seven (30%) had made external requests for data in the previous 12 months. CTUs supported the need for increased data sharing activities although concerns were raised about patient identification, misuse of data, and financial burden. Custodianship of clinical trial data and requirements for a CTU to align its policy to their parent institutes were also raised. No CTUs supported the use of an open access model for data sharing.

CONCLUSION: There is support within the publicly funded UKCRC-registered CTUs for data sharing, but many perceived barriers remain. CTUs are currently using a variety of approaches and procedures for sharing data. This survey has informed further work, including development of guidance for publicly funded CTUs, to promote good practice and facilitate data sharing.

The Type IIb SN 2011dh: Two years of observations and modelling of the lightcurves

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy as well as modelling of the lightcurves of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh. Our extensive dataset, for which we present the observations obtained after day 100, spans two years, and complemented with Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data, we use it to build an optical-to-MIR bolometric lightcurve between days 3 and 732. To model the bolometric lightcurve before day 400 we use a grid of hydrodynamical SN models, which allows us to determine the errors in the derived quantities, and a bolometric correction determined with steady-state non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modelling. Using this method we find a helium core mass of 3.1^+0.7<inf>-0.4</inf> M<inf>⊙</inf> for SN 2011dh, consistent within error bars with previous results obtained using the bolometric lightcurve before day 80. We compute bolometric and broad-band lightcurves between days 100 and 500 from spectral steady-state NLTE models, presented and discussed in a companion paper. The preferred 12 M<inf>⊙</inf> (initial mass) model, previously found to agree well with the observed spectra, shows a good overall agreement with the observed lightcurves, although some discrepancies exist. Time-dependent NLTE modelling shows that after day ∼600 a steady-state assumption is no longer valid. The radioactive energy deposition in this phase is likely dominated by the positrons emitted in the decay of ⁵⁶Co, but seems insufficient to reproduce the lightcurves, and what energy source is dominating the emitted flux is unclear. We find an excess in the K and the MIR bands developing between days 100 and 250, during which an increase in the optical decline rate is also observed. A local origin of the excess is suggested by the depth of the He I 20 581 Å absorption. Steady-state NLTE models with a modest dust opacity in the core (τ = 0.44), turned on during this period, reproduce the observed behaviour, but an additional excess in the Spitzer 4.5 μm band remains. Carbon-monoxide (CO) first-overtone band emission is detected at day 206, and possibly at day 89, and assuming the additional excess to bedominated by CO fundamental band emission, we find fundamental to first-overtone band ratios considerably higher than observed in SN 1987A. The profiles of the [O i] 6300 Å and Mg i] 4571 Å lines show a remarkable similarity, suggesting that these lines originate from a common nuclear burning zone (O/Ne/Mg), and using small scale fluctuations in the line profiles we estimate a filling factor of ≲ 0.07 for the emitting material. This paper concludes our extensive observational and modelling work on SN 2011dh. The results from hydrodynamical modelling, steady-state NLTE modelling, and stellar evolutionary progenitor analysis are all consistent, and suggest an initial mass of ∼12 M<inf>⊙</inf> for the progenitor.

Locations of peculiar supernovae as a diagnostic of their origins

We put constraints on the properties of the progenitors of peculiar calcium-rich transients using the distribution of locations within their host galaxies. We confirm that this class of transients do not follow the galaxy stellar mass profile and are more likely to be found in remote locations of their apparent hosts. We test the hypothesis that these transients are from low-metallicity progenitors by comparing their spatial distributions with the predictions of self-consistent cosmological simulations that include star formation and chemical enrichment. We find that while metal-poor stars and our transient sample show a consistent preference for large offsets, metallicity alone cannot explain the extreme cases. Invoking a lower age limit on the progenitor helps to improve the match, indicating these events may result from a very old metal-poor population. We also investigate the radial distribution of globular cluster systems, and show that they too are consistent with the class of calcium-rich transients. Because photometric upper limits exist for globular clusters for some members of the class, a production mechanism related to the dense environment of globular clusters is not favoured for the calcium-rich events. However, the methods developed in this paper may be used in the future to constrain the effects of low metallicity on radially distant core-collapse events or help establish a correlation with globular clusters for other classes of peculiar explosions.

Individual factors and perceived community characteristics in relation to mental health and mental well-being

Background
It has been argued that though correlated with mental health, mental well-being is a distinct entity. Despite the wealth of literature on mental health, less is known about mental well-being. Mental health is something experienced by individuals, whereas mental well-being can be assessed at the population level. Accordingly it is important to differentiate the individual and population level factors (environmental and social) that could be associated with mental health and well-being, and as people living in deprived areas have a higher prevalence of poor mental health, these relationships should be compared across different levels of neighbourhood deprivation.

Methods
A cross-sectional representative random sample of 1,209 adults from 62 Super Output Areas (SOAs) in Belfast, Northern Ireland (Feb 2010 – Jan 2011) were recruited in the PARC Study. Interview-administered questionnaires recorded data on socio-demographic characteristics, health-related behaviours, individual social capital, self-rated health, mental health (SF-8) and mental well-being (WEMWBS). Multi-variable linear regression analyses, with inclusion of clustering by SOAs, were used to explore the associations between individual and perceived community characteristics and mental health and mental well-being, and to investigate how these associations differed by the level of neighbourhood deprivation.

Results
Thirty-eight and 30 % of variability in the measures of mental well-being and mental health, respectively, could be explained by individual factors and the perceived community characteristics. In the total sample and stratified by neighbourhood deprivation, age, marital status and self-rated health were associated with both mental health and well-being, with the ‘social connections’ and local area satisfaction elements of social capital also emerging as explanatory variables. An increase of +1 in EQ-5D-3 L was associated with +1SD of the population mean in both mental health and well-being. Similarly, a change from ‘very dissatisfied’ to ‘very satisfied’ for local area satisfaction would result in +8.75 for mental well-being, but only in the more affluent of areas.

Conclusions
Self-rated health was associated with both mental health and mental well-being. Of the individual social capital explanatory variables, ‘social connections’ was more important for mental well-being. Although similarities in the explanatory variables of mental health and mental well-being exist, socio-ecological interventions designed to improve them may not have equivalent impacts in rich and poor neighbourhoods.

Coronal properties of planet-bearing stars

Context. Do extrasolar planets affect the activity of their host stars? Indications for chromospheric activity enhancement have been found for a handful of targets, but in the X-ray regime, conclusive observational evidence is still missing. Aims: We want to establish a sound observational basis to confirm or reject major effects of Star-Planet Interactions (SPI) in stellar X-ray emissions. Methods: We therefore conduct a statistical analysis of stellar X-ray activity of all known planet-bearing stars within 30 pc distance for dependencies on planetary parameters such as mass and semimajor axis. Results: In our sample, there are no significant correlations of X-ray luminosity or the activity indicator L_X/L_bol with planetary parameters which cannot be explained by selection effects. Conclusions: Coronal SPI seems to be a phenomenon which might only manifest itself as a strong effect for a few individual targets, but not to have a major effect on planet-bearing stars in general.

Quiescent and flaring X-ray emission from the nearby M/T dwarf binary SCR 1845-6357

Aims: X-ray emission is an important diagnostics to study magnetic activity in very low mass stars that are presumably fully convective and have an effectively neutral photosphere. Methods: We investigate an XMM-Newton observation of SCR 1845-6357, a nearby, ultracool M 8.5 / T 5.5 dwarf binary. The binary is unresolved in the XMM detectors, but the X-ray emission is very likely from the M 8.5 dwarf. We compare its flaring emission to those of similar very low mass stars and additionally present an XMM observation of the M 8 dwarf VB 10. Results: We detect quasi-quiescent X-ray emission from SCR 1845-6357 at soft X-ray energies in the 0.2-2.0 keV band, as well as a strong flare with a count rate increase of a factor of 30 and a duration of only 10 min. The quasi-quiescent X-ray luminosity of log LX = 26.2 erg/s and the corresponding activity level of log LX/Lbol = -3.8 point to a fairly active star. Coronal temperatures of up to 5 MK and frequent minor variability support this picture. During the flare, which is accompanied by a significant brightening in the near-UV, plasma temperatures of 25-30 MK are observed and an X-ray luminosity of LX = 8 × 1027 erg/s is reached. Conclusions: The source SCR 1845-6357 is a nearby, very low mass star that emits X-rays at detectable levels in quasi-quiescence, implying the existence of a corona. The high activity level, coronal temperatures and the observed large flare point to a rather active star, despite its estimated age of a few Gyr.

Improving a regional chemotherapy service by learning from deaths occurring within 30 days of treatment with systemic anti-cancer therapy.

Background: Outwith clinical trials, patient outcomes specifically related to SACT (systemic anti-cancer therapy) are not well reported despite a significant proportion of patients receiving active treatment at the end of life. The NCEPOD reviewing deaths within 30 days of SACT found SACT caused or hastened death in 27% of cases.

Method: Across the Northern Ireland cancer network, 95 patients who died within 30 days of SACT for solid tumours were discussed at the Morbidity and Mortality monthly meeting during 2013. Using a structured template, each case was independently reviewed, with particular focus on whether SACT caused or hastened death.

Results: Lung, GI and breast cancers were the most common sites. Performance status was recorded in 92% at time of final SACT cycle (ECOG PS 0-2 89%).

In 57% the cause of death was progressive disease. Other causes included thromboembolism (13%) and infection (5% neutropenic sepsis, 6% non-neutropenic sepsis). In 26% with death from progressive disease, the patient was first cycle of first line treatment for metastatic disease. In the majority discussion regarding treatment aims and risks was documented. Only one patient was receiving SACT with curative intent, who died from appropriately managed neutropenic sepsis.

A definitive decision regarding SACT's role in death was made in 60%: in 49% SACT was deemed non-contributory and in 11% SACT was deemed the cause of death. In 40% SACT did not play a major role, but a definitive negative association could not be made.

Conclusion: Development of a robust review process of 30-day mortality after SACT established a benchmark for SACT delivery for future comparisons and identified areas for SACT service organisation improvement. Moreover it encourages individual practice reflection and highlights the importance of balancing patients' needs and concerns with realistic outcomes and risks, particularly in heavily pre-treated patients or those of poor performance status.

Efficient Key Generation by Exploiting Randomness from Channel Responses of Individual OFDM Subcarriers

Key generation from the randomness of wireless channels is a promising technique to establish a secret cryptographic key securely between legitimate users. This paper proposes a new approach to extract keys efficiently from channel responses of individual orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) subcarriers. The efficiency is achieved by (i) fully exploiting randomness from time and frequency domains and (ii) improving the cross-correlation of the channel measurements. Through the theoretical modelling of the time and frequency autocorrelation relationship of the OFDM subcarrier's channel responses, we can obtain the optimal probing rate and use multiple uncorrelated subcarriers as random sources. We also study the effects of non-simultaneous measurements and noise on the cross-correlation of the channel measurements. We find the cross-correlation is mainly impacted by noise effects in a slow fading channel and use a low pass filter (LPF) to reduce the key disagreement rate and extend the system's working signal-to-noise ratio range. The system is evaluated in terms of randomness, key generation rate, and key disagreement rate, verifying that it is feasible to extract randomness from both time and frequency domains of the OFDM subcarrier's channel responses.

Parque habitacional na região do Algarve: uma contribuição da análise de clusters na definição de uma tipologia de freguesias, 1991-2001-2011

Partindo de 17 variáveis caracterizadoras do parque habitacional, provenientes das recolhas censitárias de 1991, 2001 e 2011, procedeu-se à classificação das 84 freguesias da região do Algarve. A aplicação da análise de clusters conduziu à obtenção de cinco agrupamentos de freguesias, nos três momentos de análise (1991, 2001 e 2011): Litoral Intensivo; Litoral Moderado; Rural Intermédio; Rural Profundo; e Centros Urbanos. A heterogeneidade entre os clusters é mais acentuada em termos da pressão sobre a ocupação do território e da forma de ocupação, nomeadamente o uso sazonal. Note-se que as tendências entre as duas décadas (1991-2001 e 2001-2011) são distintas. Entre 1991 e 2001 observou-se um aumento das freguesias que revelam sinais depressivos (Rural Profundo passou de 10 para 23 freguesias) enquanto as cidades se tornaram territórios com maiores dissemelhanças em relação aos demais, nomeadamente freguesias limítrofes (veja-se que o cluster Centros Urbanos passou a ser constituído, quase exclusivamente, por freguesias que integram cidades). Entre 2001 e 2011 parece haver uma reconfiguração do espaço, com o aumento de freguesias com indícios expansivos (Litoral Moderado passou de 11 para 30 freguesias) ao mesmo tempo que a ruralidade mais intensa se começa a dissipar (note-se que o Rural Profundo passou a constituir-se, essencialmente, por freguesias pertencentes ao barrocal e à serra algarvias). O conhecimento destas realidades constitui um pré-requisito para a identificação de soluções para freguesias com características comuns e um auxílio na difícil tarefa que é o planeamento e ordenamento do território da região do Algarve como um todo.

Intervention Recommendations to Minimize the 30-Day Risk-of-Readmission for Heart Failure

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015

Modelos de resposta à interação entre fármacos anestésicos : análise de regressão e análise de Clusters

Os avanços tecnológicos e científicos, na área da saúde, têm vindo a aliar áreas como a Medicina e a Matemática, cabendo à ciência adequar de forma mais eficaz os meios de investigação, diagnóstico, monitorização e terapêutica. Os métodos desenvolvidos e os estudos apresentados nesta dissertação resultam da necessidade de encontrar respostas e soluções para os diferentes desafios identificados na área da anestesia. A índole destes problemas conduz, necessariamente, à aplicação, adaptação e conjugação de diferentes métodos e modelos das diversas áreas da matemática. A capacidade para induzir a anestesia em pacientes, de forma segura e confiável, conduz a uma enorme variedade de situações que devem ser levadas em conta, exigindo, por isso, intensivos estudos. Assim, métodos e modelos de previsão, que permitam uma melhor personalização da dosagem a administrar ao paciente e por monitorizar, o efeito induzido pela administração de cada fármaco, com sinais mais fiáveis, são fundamentais para a investigação e progresso neste campo. Neste contexto, com o objetivo de clarificar a utilização em estudos na área da anestesia de um ajustado tratamento estatístico, proponho-me abordar diferentes análises estatísticas para desenvolver um modelo de previsão sobre a resposta cerebral a dois fármacos durante sedação. Dados obtidos de voluntários serão utilizados para estudar a interação farmacodinâmica entre dois fármacos anestésicos. Numa primeira fase são explorados modelos de regressão lineares que permitam modelar o efeito dos fármacos no sinal cerebral BIS (índice bispectral do EEG – indicador da profundidade de anestesia); ou seja estimar o efeito que as concentrações de fármacos têm na depressão do eletroencefalograma (avaliada pelo BIS). Na segunda fase deste trabalho, pretende-se a identificação de diferentes interações com Análise de Clusters bem como a validação do respetivo modelo com Análise Discriminante, identificando grupos homogéneos na amostra obtida através das técnicas de agrupamento. O número de grupos existentes na amostra foi, numa fase exploratória, obtido pelas técnicas de agrupamento hierárquicas, e a caracterização dos grupos identificados foi obtida pelas técnicas de agrupamento k-means. A reprodutibilidade dos modelos de agrupamento obtidos foi testada através da análise discriminante. As principais conclusões apontam que o teste de significância da equação de Regressão Linear indicou que o modelo é altamente significativo. As variáveis propofol e remifentanil influenciam significativamente o BIS e o modelo melhora com a inclusão do remifentanil. Este trabalho demonstra ainda ser possível construir um modelo que permite agrupar as concentrações dos fármacos, com base no efeito no sinal cerebral BIS, com o apoio de técnicas de agrupamento e discriminantes. Os resultados desmontram claramente a interacção farmacodinâmica dos dois fármacos, quando analisamos o Cluster 1 e o Cluster 3. Para concentrações semelhantes de propofol o efeito no BIS é claramente diferente dependendo da grandeza da concentração de remifentanil. Em suma, o estudo demostra claramente, que quando o remifentanil é administrado com o propofol (um hipnótico) o efeito deste último é potenciado, levando o sinal BIS a valores bastante baixos.

How can clusters help in the product type choice? The case of a specialized retail store

This work project (WP) is a study about a clustering strategy for Sport Zone. The general cluster study’s objective is to create groups such that within each group the individuals are similar to each other, but should be different among groups. The clusters creation is a mix of common sense, trial and error and some statistical supporting techniques. Our particular objective is to support category managers to better define the product type to be displayed in the stores’ shelves by doing store clusters. This research was carried out for Sport Zone, and comprises an objective definition, a literature review, the clustering activity itself, some factor analysis and a discriminant analysis to better frame our work. Together with this quantitative part, a survey addressed to category managers to better understand their key drivers, for choosing the type of product of each store, was carried out. Based in a non-random sample of 65 stores with data referring to 2013, the final result was the choice of 6 store clusters (Figure 1) which were individually characterized as the main outcome of this work. In what relates to our selected variables, all were important for the distinction between clusters, which proves the adequacy of their choice. The interpretation of the results gives category managers a tool to understand which products best fit the clustered stores. Furthermore, as a side finding thanks to the clusterization, a STP (Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning) was initiated, being this WP the first steps of a continuous process.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

The role of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success

In the present thesis I analyse the roles of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success. The results retrieved from a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set show prior worker productivities and environmental embeddedness to have a persistent positive impact on the size and growth rates of new firms. What is more, embeddedness facilitates the impact of ability on start-up performance with outsiders of comparable abilities starting smaller and slower growing firms. Those in higher ability categories are more likely to transfer and also, albeit to a lesser extent, close their ventures, an effect attributed to the higher opportunity costs associated with the group. Firms managed by embedded agents enjoy longer longevities and have better chances of finding a new owner after the departure of the previous one. Finally, higher ability types show evidence of specialisation in serial entrepreneurship.