Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) : a review of available techniques

Breast conservation therapy (BCT) is the procedure of choice for the management of the early stage breast cancer. However, its utilization has not been maximized because of logistics issues associated with the protracted treatment involved with the radiation treatment. Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) is an approach that treats only the lumpectomy bed plus a 1-2 cm margin, rather than the whole breast. Hence because of the small volume of irradiation a higher dose can be delivered in a shorter period of time. There has been growing interest for APBI and various approaches have been developed under phase I-III clinical studies; these include multicatheter interstitial brachytherapy, balloon catheter brachytherapy, conformal external beam radiation therapy and intra-operative radiation therapy (IORT). Balloon-based brachytherapy approaches include Mammosite, Axxent electronic brachytherapy and Contura, Hybrid brachytherapy devices include SAVI and ClearPath. This paper reviews the different techniques, identifying the weaknesses and strength of each approach and proposes a direction for future research and development. It is evident that APBI will play a role in the management of a selected group of early breast cancer. However, the relative role of the different techniques is yet to be clearly identified.

Photocatalytic hydrogen production with iron oxide under solar irradiation

As solar hydrogen is a sustainable and environmental friendly energy carrier, it is considered to take the place of fossil fuels in the near future. Solar hydrogen can be generated by splitting of water under solar light illumination. In this study, the use of nanostructured hematite thin-film electrodes in photocatalytic water splitting was investigated. Hematite (á-Fe2O3) has a narrow band-gap of 2.2 eV, which is able to utilise approximately 40% of solar radiation. However, poor photoelectrochemical performance is observed for hematite due to low electrical conductivity and a high rate of electron-hole recombination. An extensive review of useful measures taken to overcoming the disadvantages of hematite so as to enhance its performance was presented including thin-film structure, nanostructuring, doping, etc. Since semiconductoring materials which exhibit an inverse opal structure are expected to have a high surface-volume ratio, unique optical characteristics and a shorter distance for photogenerated holes to travel to the electrode/electrolyte interface, inverse opals of hematite thin films deposited on FTO glass substrate were successfully prepared by doctor blading using PMMA as a template. However, due to the poor adhesion of the films, an acidic medium (i.e., 2 M HCl) was employed to significantly enhance the adhesion of the films, which completely destroyed the inverse opal structure. Therefore, undoped, Ti and Zn-doped hematite thin films deposied on FTO glass substrate without an inverse opal structure were prepared by doctor blading and spray pyrolysis and characterised using SEM, EDX, XRD, TGA, UV-Vis spectroscopy and photoelectrochemical measurements. Regarding the doped hematite thin films prepared by doctor blading, the photoelectrochemical activity of the hematite photoelectrodes was improved by incorporation of Ti, most likely owing to the increased electrical conductivity of the films, the stabilisation of oxygen vacancies by Ti4+ ions and the increased electric field of the space charge layer. A highest photoresponse was recorded in case of 2.5 at.% Ti which seemed to be an optimal concentration. The effect of doping content, thickness, and calcination temperature on the performance of the Ti-doped photoelectrodes was investigated. Also, the photoactivity of the 2.5 at.% Ti-doped samples was examined in two different types of electrochemical cells. Zn doping did not enhance the photoactivity of the hematite thin films though Zn seemed to enhance the hole transport due to the slow hole mobility of hematite which could not be overcome by the enhancement. The poor performance was also obtained for the Ti-doped samples prepared by spray pyrolysis, which appeared to be a result of introduction of impurities from the metallic parts of the spray gun in an acidic medium. Further characterisation of the thin-film electrodes is required to explain the mechanism by which enhanced performance was obtained for Ti-doped electrodes (doctor blading) and poor photoactivity for Zn and Ti-doped samples which were synthesised by doctor blading and spray pyrolysis, respectively. Ti-doped hematite thin films will be synthesised in another way, such as dip coating so as to maintain an inverse opal structure as well as well adhesion. Also, a comparative study of the films will be carried out.

Noble metal photocatalysts under visible light and UV light irradiation

One of the greatest challenges for the study of photocatalysts is to devise new catalysts that possess high activity under visible light illumination. This would allow the use of an abundant and green energy source, sunlight, to drive chemical reactions. Gold nanoparticles strongly absorb both visible light and UV light. It is therefore possible to drive chemical reactions utilising a significant fraction of full sunlight spectrum. Here we prepared gold nanoparticles supported on various oxide powders, and reported a new finding that gold nanoparticles on oxide supports exhibit significant activity for the oxidation of formaldehyde and methanol in the air at ambient temperature, when illuminated with visible light. We suggested that visible light can greatly enhance local electromagnetic fields and heat gold nanoparticles due to surface plasmon resonance effect which provides activation energy for the oxidation of organic molecules. Moreover, the nature of the oxide support has an important influence on the activity of the gold nanoparticles. The finding reveals the possibility to drive chemical reactions with sunlight on gold nanoparticles at ambient temperature, highlighting a new direction for research on visible light photocatalysts. Gold nanoparticles supported on oxides also exhibit significant dye oxidation activity under visible light irradiation in aqueous solution at ambient temperature. Turnover frequencies of the supported gold nanoparticles for the dye degradation are much higher than titania based photocatalysts under both visible and UV light. These gold photocatalysts can also catalyse phenol degradation as well as selective oxidation of benzyl alcohol under UV light. The reaction mechanism for these photocatalytic oxidations was studied. Gold nanoparticles exhibit photocatalytic activity due to visible light heating gold electrons in 6sp band, while the UV absorption results in electron holes in gold 5d band to oxidise organic molecules. Silver nanoparticles also exhibit considerable visible light and UV light absorption due to surface plasmon resonance effect and the interband transition of 4d electrons to the 5sp band, respectively. Therefore, silver nanoparticles are potentially photocatalysts that utilise the solar spectrum effectively. Here we reported that silver nanoparticles at room temperature can be used to drive chemical reactions when illuminated with light throughout the solar spectrum. The significant activities for dye degradation by silver nanoparticles on oxide supports are even better than those by semiconductor photocatalysts. Moreover, silver photocatalysts also can degrade phenol and drive the oxidation of benzyl alcohol to benzaldehyde under UV light. We suggested that surface plasmon resonance effect and interband transition of silver nanoparticles can activate organic molecule oxidations under light illumination.