Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

An investigation of the relationship between job characteristics and the gender wage gap

This paper re-examines gender wage differences, taking into account notonly worker characteristics but also job characteristics. Considerationof a wide set of job quality indicators can explain a fraction of thewage gap that would otherwise be attributed to pure wage discrimination.In any case, the fraction of the wage gap that remains associated todifferential rewards for identical factors across sexes is stillsubstantial. Our results suggest that in order to avoid overestimationof the fraction of the wage gap attributable to discrimination, it isnecessary to control for job characteristics.

Demand for private health insurance: Is there a quality gap?

Quality of care is qualified as a main determinant of the demand forvoluntary private health insurance (PHI) in National Health Systems(NHS). This paper provides new evidence on the influence of the qualitygap between public and private health insurance and other demanddeterminants in the demand for PHI in Catalonia. The demand for PHI ismodelled as a demand for health care quality. Unlike previous studies, the database employed allows for the development of a link between thetheoretical and the empirical model dealing with unobserved heterogeneityand endogeneity issues. Results suggest that a rise in PHI qualityenhances an equivalent influence in the demand for PHI as an equalreduction of NHS quality. Income and price elasticity estimates areconsistent with the observed feature that PHI appears to be a luxurygood and individuals tend to be relatively insensible to tax relief'sand monetary co-payments in insurance contracts.

How wide is the gap? An investigation of gender wage differences using quantile regression

In this paper we examine the determinants of wages and decompose theobserved differences across genders into the "explained by differentcharacteristics" and "explained by different returns components"using a sample of Spanish workers. Apart from the conditionalexpectation of wages, we estimate the conditional quantile functionsfor men and women and find that both the absolute wage gap and thepart attributed to different returns at each of the quantiles, farfrom being well represented by their counterparts at the mean, aregreater as we move up in the wage range.

Identifying the gap between need and intervention for alcohol use disorders in Europe.

AIMS: A literature review of existing research on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and availability of alcohol interventions in Europe was conducted. The review also explored what is known about the gap between need and provision of alcohol interventions in Europe. METHODS: The review search strategy included: (i) descriptive studies of alcohol intervention systems in Europe; (ii) studies of alcohol service provision in Europe; and (iii) studies of prevalence of AUD and alcohol needs assessment in Europe. RESULTS: Europe has a relatively high level of alcohol consumption and the resulting disabilities are the highest in the world. Most research on implementation of alcohol interventions in Europe has been restricted to screening and brief interventions. Alcohol needs assessment methodology has been developed but has not been applied in comparative studies across countries in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: This review points to key gaps in knowledge related to alcohol interventions in Europe. There is a lack of comparative data on variations in alcohol treatment systems across European countries and there is also a lack of comparative data on the prevalence of alcohol use disorders across European countries and the relative gap between need and access to treatment. The forthcoming Alcohol Measures for Public Health Research Alliance (AMPHORA) research project work package on 'Early identification and treatment' aims to address these gaps.

Effects of a treatment gap during adjuvant chemotherapy in node-positive breast cancer: results of International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) Trials 13-93 and 14-93.

BACKGROUND: The International Breast Cancer Study Group (IBCSG) conducted two complementary randomized trials to assess whether a treatment-free gap during adjuvant chemotherapy influenced outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 1993 to 1999, IBCSG Trials 13-93 and 14-93 enrolled 2215 premenopausal and postmenopausal women with axillary node-positive, operable breast cancer. All patients received cyclophosphamide (Cytoxan, C) plus either doxorubicin (Adriamycin, A) or epirubicin (E) for four courses followed immediately (No Gap) or after a 16-week delay (Gap) by classical cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) for three courses. The median follow-up was 7.7 years. RESULTS: The Gap and No-Gap groups had similar disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). No identified subgroup showed a statistically significant difference, but exploratory subgroup analysis noted a trend towards decreased DFS for Gap compared with No Gap for women with estrogen receptor (ER)-negative tumors not receiving tamoxifen, especially evident during the first 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: A 16-week gap between adjuvant AC/EC and CMF provided no benefit and may have increased early recurrence rates in patients with ER-negative tumors.

Bridging the Accountability Gap: Rights for New Entities in the Information Society?

Technological developments in the information society bring new challenges, both to the applicability and to the enforceability of the law. One major challenge is posed by new entities such as pseudonyms, avatars, and software agents that operate at an increasing distance from the physical persons "behind" them (the "principal"). In case of accidents or misbehavior, current laws require that the physical or legal principal behind the entity be found so that she can be held to account. This may be problematic if the linkability of the principal and the operating entity is questionable. In light of the ongoing developments in electronic agents, there is sufficient reason to conduct a review of the literature in order to more closely examine arguments for and against legal personhood for some nonhuman acting entities. This article also includes a discussion of alternative approaches to solving the "accountability gap."

Globalization and culture shaping the gender gap: A comparative analysis of urban Latin America and East Asia (1970 - 2000)

In this paper we present: 1. The available data on comparative gender inequality at themacroeconomic level and 2. Gender inequality measures at the microeconomic and case studylevel. We see that market openness has a significant effect on the narrowing of the human capitalgender gap. Globalization and market openness stand as factors that improve both the humancapital endowments of women and their economic position. But we also see that the effects ofculture and religious beliefs are very different. While Catholicism has a statistically significantinfluence on the improvement of the human capital gender gap, Muslim and Buddhist religiousbeliefs have the opposite effect and increase human capital gender differences.In the second global era, some Catholic Latin American countries benefited from market opennessin terms of the human capital and income gender gap, whereas we find the opposite impact inBuddhist and Muslim countries like China and South Korea where women s economic positionhas worsened in terms of human capital and wage inequality.

Perfil do formador – um atributo fundamental na melhoria da qualidade do ensino Um estudo de caso

O presente trabalho que tem como tema O perfil do formador/professor um atributo na melhoria da qualidade do ensino é um estudo de caso realizado na escola Secundária Manuel Lopes. Pretendemos com este trabalho saber se existe um perfil adequado para o formador/professor do ensino Secundário. Este trabalho está estruturado em três capítulos. Apresentamos na introdução os objectivos do trabalho, a metodologia utilizada, a justificação do tema, e as dificuldades que encontramos no desenrolar do mesmo. Foram abordados os conceitos relevantes para a compreensão do tema em estudo. Apresentamos ainda um breve historial da escola bem como as características da zona onde está inserida. Apresentamos os dados que foram recolhidos e de seguida fizemos a respectiva análise, que nos permitiu formular as nossas conclusões, onde retomamos alguns pontos centrais da nossa investigação, numa análise suscita do perfil do formador/professor um atributo fundamental da melhoria da qualidade do ensino, e procuramos apresentar algumas recomendações visando a melhoria da mesma.

Usando um Jogo Digital na Sala de Aula do Ensino Fundamental: Visão dos Professores

A digital game was created as a resource for cognitive learning and afterwards it was used in primary schools in order to survey its active users. The methods used to recollect data were observation, in-depth interviews and focus groups. The main target of this study is to collect points of view of different primary school teachers. Conclusions show us how the group of study members perceive the use of digital games in the classroom.

Whose DNA is this? How relevant a question? (a note for forensic scientists).

This communication seeks to draw the attention of researchers and practitioners dealing with forensic DNA profiling analyses to the following question: is a scientist's report, offering support to a hypothesis according to which a particular individual is the source of DNA detected during the analysis of a stain, relevant from the point of view of a Court of Justice? This question relates to skeptical views previously voiced by commentators mainly in the judicial area, but is avoided by a large majority of forensic scientists. Notwithstanding, the pivotal role of this question has recently been evoked during the international conference "The hidden side of DNA profiles. Artifacts, errors and uncertain evidence" held in Rome (April 27th to 28th, 2012). Indeed, despite the fact that this conference brought together some of the world's leading forensic DNA specialists, it appeared clearly that a huge gap still exists between questions lawyers are actually interested in, and the answers that scientists deliver to Courts in written reports or during oral testimony. Participants in the justice system, namely lawyers and jurors on the one hand and forensic geneticists on the other, unfortunately talk considerably different languages. It thus is fundamental to address this issue of communication about results of forensic DNA analyses, and open a dialogue with practicing non-scientists at large who need to make meaningful use of scientific results to approach and help solve judicial cases. This paper intends to emphasize the actuality of this topic and suggest beneficial ways ahead towards a more reasoned use of forensic DNA in criminal proceedings.

Popularização da taxonomia de solo: vocabulário mínimo e aspectos sócio-econômicos no contexto do ensino fundamental, em São Miguel, Esperança (PB)

Este estudo objetivou construir uma proposta pedagógica com alunos de nível fundamental na comunidade de São Miguel, Esperança (PB). Procurou-se despertar o interesse dos estudantes para a importância do solo em suas vidas, bem como adequar a terminologia usada na pedologia à linguagem cotidiana dos alunos. Seguiu-se como método a abordagem paulofreireana na qual se considera que o contexto da escola extrapola o da sala de aula, devendo envolver o máximo de pessoas da comunidade. Assim, procurou-se levantar informações quanto à renda familiar, moradia, número de irmãos e irmãs, atividade principal do responsável pela família, etc. Deste levantamento, extraiu-se, também, o vocabulário mínimo, com palavras e expressões geradoras que sintetizam o universo de conhecimento em São Miguel. Os resultados denotaram a dureza do cotidiano e uma educação repressiva diante da indomabilidade dos filhos. Observou-se que elementos pedagógicos presentes no vocabulário mínimo podem facilitar a popularização do saber pedológico no ensino fundamental. O vocabulário mínimo promoveu uma melhor comunicação durante as aulas entre educadores e educandos, bem como permitiu a construção de conceitos para as ordens de solos mais representativas da região: Neossolos e Argissolos. A construção de monólitos de solos constituiu importante recurso auxiliar nas aulas expositivas e dialógicas, despertando nas crianças maior interesse para o tema solo e meio ambiente.