Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.

Towards a universal sampling protocol for soil biotas in the humid tropics

This paper reviews the methods for the inventory of below-ground biotas in the humid tropics, to document the (hypothesized) loss of soil biodiversity associated with deforestation and agricultural intensification at forest margins. The biotas were grouped into eight categories, each of which corresponded to a major functional group considered important or essential to soil function. An accurate inventory of soil organisms can assist in ecosystem management and help sustain agricultural production. The advantages and disadvantages of transect-based and grid-based sampling methods are discussed, illustrated by published protocols ranging from the original "TSBF transect", through versions developed for the alternatives to Slash-and-Burn Project (ASB) to the final schemes (with variants) adopted by the Conservation and Sustainable Management of Below-ground Biodiversity Project (CSM-BGBD). Consideration is given to the place and importance of replication in below-ground biological sampling and it is argued that the new sampling protocols are inclusive, i.e. designed to sample all eight biotic groups in the same field exercise; spatially scaled, i.e. provide biodiversity data at site, locality, landscape and regional levels, and link the data to land use and land cover; and statistically robust, as shown by a partial randomization of plot locations for sampling.

Diagnosi del canvi d'usos i cobertes del sòl a Sant Pere de Vilamajor (Vallès Oriental) : analitzant el passat per a entendre el present (1956-2010)

El projecte es centra en analitzar les transformacions en els usos i cobertes del sòl al municipi de Sant Pere de Vilamajor, com a conseqüència d’un conjunt de forces inductores de canvi global. Primerament, s’ha realitzat la caracterització social, econòmica, demogràfica i ambiental de la zona d’estudi des de mitjans del segle passat fins a l’actualitat. Posteriorment, l’estudi es centra en l’anàlisi cartogràfica de la zona, realitzat a través de Sistemes d’Informació Geogràfica (SIG), utilitzant el programa MiraMon, per tal de comparar els usos i cobertes del sòl entre 1956 i 2010. Les principals transformacions experimentades són la transició dels estatges de vegetació herbacis i matollars a bosc i la transformació dels cultius en sòl urbà. L’abandonament de les pràctiques agràries conjuntament amb el desenvolupament de les urbanitzacions a l’àmbit d’estudi són els principals agents de canvi, fruit del procés de la industrialització i terciarització de l’economia.

Microbial communities in Cerrado soils under native vegetation subjected to prescribed fire and under pasture

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of fire regimes and vegetation cover on the structure and dynamics of soil microbial communities, through phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. Comparisons were made between native areas with different woody covers ("cerrado stricto sensu" and "campo sujo"), under different fire regimes, and a 20-year-old active palisadegrass pasture in the Central Plateau of Brazil. Microbial biomass was higher in the native plots than in the pasture, and the highest monthly values were observed during the rainy season in the native plots. No significant differences were observed between fire regimes or between communities from the two native vegetation types. However, the principal component (PC) analysis separated the microbial communities by vegetation cover (native x pasture) and season (wet x dry), accounting for 45.8% (PC1 and PC3) and 25.6% (PC2 and PC3), respectively, of the total PLFA variability. Changes in land cover and seasonal rainfall in Cerrado ecosystems have significant effects on the total density of soil microorganisms and on the abundance of microbial groups, especially Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Local and Regional Scale Determinants of Biodiversity Patterns in Boreal Agricultural Landscapes

This thesis examines the local and regional scale determinants of biodiversity patterns using existing species and environmental data. The research focuses on agricultural environments that have experienced rapid declines of biodiversity during past decades. Existing digital databases provide vast opportunities for habitat mapping, predictive mapping of species occurrences and richness and understanding the speciesenvironment relationships. The applicability of these databases depends on the required accuracy and quality of the data needed to answer the landscape ecological and biogeographical questions in hand. Patterns of biodiversity arise from confounded effects of different factors, such as climate, land cover and geographical location. Complementary statistical approaches that can show the relative effects of different factors are needed in biodiversity analyses in addition to classical multivariate models. Better understanding of the key factors underlying the variation in diversity requires the analyses of multiple taxonomic groups from different perspectives, such as richness, occurrence, threat status and population trends. The geographical coincidence of species richness of different taxonomic groups can be rather limited. This implies that multiple geographical regions should be taken into account in order to preserve various groups of species. Boreal agricultural biodiversity and in particular, distribution and richness of threatened species is strongly associated with various grasslands. Further, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes characterized by moderate field size, forest patches and non-crop agricultural habitats enhance the biodiversity of rural environments. From the landscape ecological perspective, the major threats to Finnish agricultural biodiversity are the decline of connected grassland habitat networks, and general homogenization of landscape structure resulting from both intensification and marginalization of agriculture. The maintenance of key habitats, such as meadows and pastures is an essential task in conservation of agricultural biodiversity. Furthermore, a larger landscape context should be incorporated in conservation planning and decision making processes in order to respond to the needs of different species and to maintain heterogeneous rural landscapes and viable agricultural diversity in the future.

Facing the broader dimensions of biological invasions

Invasive species are an excellent opportunity to think about the nature society desires, particularly in the face of global changes. Nature and human views of nature are rapidly evolving; our approach to bio- logical invasions through biosecurity institutions and land management policies must evolve in tandem with these changes. We review three dimensions that are insufficiently addressed. First, biological inva- sions are culturally shaped and interpreted. Humans play a major role in the movement and nurturing of alien life, and esthetics, perception, and emotion are deeply implicated in the management of invasive species. What people fear or regret with invasive species are not their effects on nature per se, but their effects on a particular desired nature, and policymaking must reflect this. Second, biological invasions are not restricted to negative impacts. Invasions take place in landscapes where many natural condi- tions have been altered, so policy tools must recognize that invasive species are a functional, structural, and compositional part of transformed ecosystems. In some cases, native species benefit from changes in resource availability caused by invasions or from protections provided by an invasive plant. Finally, invasive species can help ecosystems and people to adapt to global change by maintaining ecosystem processes such as productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in a context of climate change or land cover transformations. While recognition is growing among ecologists that novel, invaded ecosystems have value, and while the on-the-ground application of biosecurity policies has of necessity adjusted to local contexts and other agendas, invasion biology could aid policymaking by better addressing the three complexities inherent in the three dimensions highlighted above.

Water consumption and soil moisture distribution in melon crop with mulching and in a protected environment

Mulching has become an important technique for land cover, but there are some technical procedures which should be adjusted for these new modified conditions to establish optimum total water depth. It is also important to observe the soil-water relations as soil water distribution and wetted volume dimensions. The objective of the present study was to estimate melon evapotranspiration under mulching in a protected environment and to verify the water spatial distribution around the melon root system in two soil classes. Mulching provided 27 mm water saving by reducing water evaporation. In terms of volume each plant received, on average, the amount of 175.2 L of water in 84 days of cultivation without mulching, while when was used mulching the water requirement was 160.2 L per plant. The use of mulching reduced the soil moisture variability throughout the crop cycle and allowed a greater distribution of soil water that was more intense in the clay soil. The clayey soil provided on average 43 mm more water depth retention in 0.50 m soil deep relative to the sandy loam soil, and reduced 5.6 mm the crop cycle soil moisture variation compared to sandy loam soil.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.

Distribution Patterns of Soil Properties in a Rural Mediterranean Area in Northeastern Spain

Soil properties on the Cap de Creus Peninsula, NE Spain depend primarily on scarce agricultural practices and early abandonment. In the study area, 90% of which is mainly covered by Cistus shrubs, 8 environments representing variations in land use/land cover and soil properties at different depths were identified. In each environment variously vegetated areas were selected and sampled. The soils, collected at different depths, were classified as Lithic Xerorthents according to the United States Department of Agriculture system of soil classification (USDA-NRCS 1975). Differences in soil properties were largely found according to the evolution of the plant canopy and the land use history. To identify underlying patterns in soil properties related to environmental evolution, factor analysis was performed and factor scores were used to determine how the factor patterns varied between soil variables, soil depths and selected environments. The three-factor model always accounted for 80% of the total variation in the data at the different soil depths. Organic matter was the more relevant soil property at 0–2 cm depth, whereas active minerals (silt and clay) were found to be the most relevant soil parameters controlling soil dynamics at the other depths investigated. Results showed that vineyards and olive tree soils are poorly developed and present worse conditions for mineral and organic compounds. Analysis of factor scores allowed independent assessment of soils, depth and plant cover and demonstrated that soils present the best physico-chemical characteristics under Erica arborea and meadows. In contrast, soils under Cistus monspeliensis were less nutrient rich and less well structured

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

Measurement and simulation of solar radiation availability in relation to the growth of coffee plants in an agroforestry system with rubber trees

Solar radiation is an important factor for plant growth, being its availability to understory crops strongly modified by trees in an Agroforestry System (AFS). Coffee trees (Coffea arabica - cv. Obatã IAC 1669-20) were planted at a 3.4 x 0.9 m spacing inside and aside rows of monocrops of 12 year-old rubber trees (Hevea spp.), in Piracicaba-SP, Brazil (22º42'30" S, 47º38'00" W - altitude: 546m). One-year-old coffee plants exposed to 25; 30; 35; 40; 45; 80; 90; 95 and 100% of the total solar radiation were evaluated according to its biophysical parameters of solar radiation interception and capture. The Goudriaan (1977) adapted by Bernardes et al. (1998) model for radiation attenuation fit well to the measured data. Coffee plants tolerate a decrease in solar radiation availability to 50% without undergoing a reduction on growth and LAI, which was approximately 2m².m-2 under this condition. Further reductions on the availability of solar radiation caused a reduction in LAI (1.5m².m-2), thus poor land cover and solar radiation interception, resulting in growth reduction.

Landscape structure in the northern coast of Paraná state, a hotspot for the brazilian Atlantic Forest conservation

The "Serra do Mar" region comprises the largest remnant of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. The coast of the Paraná State is part of the core area of the "Serra do Mar" corridor and where actions for biodiversity conservation must be planned. In this study we aimed at characterizing the landscape structure in the APA-Guaraqueçaba, the largest protected area in this region, in order to assist environmental policies of this region. Based on a supervised classification of a mosaic of LANDSAT-5-TM satellite images (from March 2009), we developed a map (1:75,000 scale) with seven classes of land use and land cover and analyzed the relative quantities of forests and modified areas in slopes and lowlands. The APA-Guaraqueçaba is comprised mainly by the Dense Ombrophilous Forest (68.6% of total area) and secondary forests (9.1%), indicating a forested landscape matrix; anthropogenic and bare soil areas (0.8%) and the Pasture/Grasslands class (4.2%) were less representative. Slopes were less fragmented and more preserved (96.3% of Dense Ombrophilous Forest and secondary forest) than lowlands (71.3%), suggesting that restoration initiatives in the lowlands must be stimulated in this region. We concluded that most of the region sustains well-conserved ecosystems, highlighting the importance of Paraná northern coast for the biodiversity maintenance of the Atlantic Forest.