Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

New stakeholders, spaces and instruments of analysis in the context of energy relationships: Case studies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

The disintegration of the USSR brought the emergence of a new geo-energy space in Central Asia. This space arose in the context of a global energy transition, which began in the late 1970s. Therefore, this new space in a changing energy world requires both new conceptual frameworks of analysis and the creation of new analytical tools. Taking into account this fact, our paper attempts to apply the theoretical framework of the Global Commodity Chain (GCC) to the case of natural resources in Central Asia. The aim of the paper is to check if there could be any Central Asia’s geo-energy space, assuming that this space would exist if natural resources were managed with regional criteria. The paper is divided into four sections. First an introduction that describes the new global energy context within natural resources of Central Asia would be integrated. Secondly, the paper justifies why the GCC methodology is suitable for the study of the value chains of energy products. Thirdly, we build up three cases studies (oil and uranium from Kazakhstan and gas from Turkmenistan) which reveal a high degree of uncertainty over the direction these chains will take. Finally, we present the conclusions of this study that state that the most plausible scenario would be the integration of energy resources of these countries in GCC where the core of the decision-making process will be far away from the region of Central Asia. Key words: Energy transition, geo-energy space, Global Commodity Chains, Central Asia

Preinfarction angina prior to first myocardial infarction does not influence long-term prognosis: a retrospective study with subgroup analysis in elderly and diabetic patients.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Although prodromal angina occurring shortly before an acute myocardial infarction (MI) has protective effects against in-hospital complications, this effect has not been well documented after initial hospitalization, especially in older or diabetic patients. We examined whether angina 1 week before a first MI provides protection in these patients. METHODS A total of 290 consecutive patients, 143 elderly (>64 years of age) and 147 adults (<65 years of age), 68 of whom were diabetic (23.4%) and 222 nondiabetic (76.6%), were examined to assess the effect of preceding angina on long-term prognosis (56 months) after initial hospitalization for a first MI. RESULTS No significant differences were found in long-term complications after initial hospitalization in these adult and elderly patients according to whether or not they had prodromal angina (44.4% with angina vs 45.4% without in adults; 45.5% vs 58% in elderly, P < 0.2). Nor were differences found according to their diabetic status (61.5% with angina vs 72.7% without in diabetics; 37.3% vs 38.3% in nondiabetics; P = 0.4). CONCLUSION The occurrence of angina 1 week before a first MI does not confer long-term protection against cardiovascular complications after initial hospitalization in adult or elderly patients, whether or not they have diabetes.

Low rates of X-Y recombination, not turnovers, account for homomorphic sex chromosomes in several diploid species of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup).

Contrasting with birds and mammals, most ectothermic vertebrates present homomorphic sex chromosomes, which might be due either to a high turnover rate or to occasional X-Y recombination. We tested these two hypotheses in a group of Palearctic green toads that diverged some 3.3 million years ago. Using sibship analyses of sex-linked markers, we show that all four species investigated share the same pair of sex chromosomes and a pattern of male heterogamety with drastically reduced X-Y recombination in males. Phylogenetic analyses of sex-linked sequences show that X and Y alleles cluster by species, not by gametolog. We conclude that X-Y homomorphy and fine-scale sequence similarity in these species do not stem from recent sex-chromosome turnovers, but from occasional X-Y recombination.

Metabolic Flux and Compartmentation Analysis in the Brain In vivo.

Through significant developments and progresses in the last two decades, in vivo localized nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) became a method of choice to probe brain metabolic pathways in a non-invasive way. Beside the measurement of the total concentration of more than 20 metabolites, (1)H MRS can be used to quantify the dynamics of substrate transport across the blood-brain barrier by varying the plasma substrate level. On the other hand, (13)C MRS with the infusion of (13)C-enriched substrates enables the characterization of brain oxidative metabolism and neurotransmission by incorporation of (13)C in the different carbon positions of amino acid neurotransmitters. The quantitative determination of the biochemical reactions involved in these processes requires the use of appropriate metabolic models, whose level of details is strongly related to the amount of data accessible with in vivo MRS. In the present work, we present the different steps involved in the elaboration of a mathematical model of a given brain metabolic process and its application to the experimental data in order to extract quantitative brain metabolic rates. We review the recent advances in the localized measurement of brain glucose transport and compartmentalized brain energy metabolism, and how these reveal mechanistic details on glial support to glutamatergic and GABAergic neurons.

Glucose sensing by the hepatoportal sensor is GLUT2-dependent: in vivo analysis in GLUT2-null mice.

In the preceding article, we demonstrated that activation of the hepatoportal glucose sensor led to a paradoxical development of hypoglycemia that was associated with increased glucose utilization by a subset of tissues. In this study, we tested whether GLUT2 plays a role in the portal glucose-sensing system that is similar to its involvement in pancreatic beta-cells. Awake RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- and control mice were infused with glucose through the portal (Po-) or the femoral (Fe-) vein for 3 h at a rate equivalent to the endogenous glucose production rate. Blood glucose and plasma insulin concentrations were continuously monitored. Glucose turnover, glycolysis, and glycogen synthesis rates were determined by the 3H-glucose infusion technique. We showed that portal glucose infusion in RIPGLUT1 x GLUT24-/- mice did not induce the hypoglycemia observed in control mice but, in contrast, led to a transient hyperglycemic state followed by a return to normoglycemia; this glycemic pattern was similar to that observed in control Fe-mice and RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- Fe-mice. Plasma insulin profiles during the infusion period were similar in control and RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- Po- and Fe-mice. The lack of hypoglycemia development in RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- mice was not due to the absence of GLUT2 in the liver. Indeed, reexpression by transgenesis of this transporter in hepatocytes did not restore the development of hypoglycemia after initiating portal vein glucose infusion. In the absence of GLUT2, glucose turnover increased in Po-mice to the same extent as that in RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- or control Fe-mice. Finally, co-infusion of somatostatin with glucose prevented development of hypoglycemia in control Po-mice, but it did not affect the glycemia or insulinemia of RIPGLUT1 x GLUT2-/- Po-mice. Together, our data demonstrate that GLUT2 is required for the function of the hepatoportal glucose sensor and that somatostatin could inhibit the glucose signal by interfering with GLUT2-expressing sensing units.

Use of flow cytometric methods for single-cell analysis in environmental microbiology

Flow cytometry (FCM) is emerging as an important tool in environmental microbiology. Although flow cytometry applications have to date largely been restricted to certain specialized fields of microbiology, such as the bacterial cell cycle and marine phytoplankton communities, technical advances in instrumentation and methodology are leading to its increased popularity and extending its range of applications. Here we will focus on a number of recent flow cytometry developments important for addressing questions in environmental microbiology. These include (i) the study of microbial physiology under environmentally relevant conditions, (ii) new methods to identify active microbial populations and to isolate previously uncultured microorganisms, and (iii) the development of high-throughput autofluorescence bioreporter assays

Selective hiring and welfare analysis in labor market models

Firms select not only how many, but also which workers to hire. Yet, in standardsearch models of the labor market, all workers have the same probability of being hired.We argue that selective hiring crucially affects welfare analysis. Our model is isomorphicto a search model under random hiring but allows for selective hiring. With selectivehiring, the positive predictions of the model change very little, but the welfare costsof unemployment are much larger because unemployment risk is distributed unequallyacross workers. As a result, optimal unemployment insurance may be higher and welfareis lower if hiring is selective.

Mutation analysis in 54 propionic acidemia patients.

Deficiency of propionyl CoA carboxylase (PCC), a dodecamer of alpha and beta subunits, causes inherited propionic acidemia. We have studied, at the molecular level, PCC in 54 patients from 48 families comprised of 96 independent alleles. These patients of various ethnic backgrounds came from research centers and hospitals in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The thorough clinical characterization of these patients was described in the accompanying paper (Grünert et al. 2012). In all 54 patients, many of whom originated from consanguineous families, the entire PCCB gene was examined by genomic DNA sequencing and in 39 individuals the PCCA gene was also studied. In three patients we found mutations in both PCC genes. In addition, in many patients RT-PCR analysis of lymphoblast RNA, lymphoblast enzyme assays, and expression of new mutations in E.coli were carried out. Eight new and eight previously detected mutations were identified in the PCCA gene while 15 new and 13 previously detected mutations were found in the PCCB gene. One missense mutation, p.V288I in the PCCB gene, when expressed in E.coli, yielded 134% of control activity and was consequently classified as a polymorphism in the coding region. Numerous new intronic polymorphisms in both PCC genes were identified. This study adds a considerable amount of new molecular data to the studies of this disease.

Interaction between tobacco and alcohol use and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of risk conferred by the interaction between tobacco and alcohol use on the risk of head and neck cancers is not clear because studies have used various methods to quantify the excess head and neck cancer burden. METHODS: We analyzed individual-level pooled data from 17 European and American case-control studies (11,221 cases and 16,168 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. We estimated the multiplicative interaction parameter (psi) and population attributable risks (PAR). RESULTS: A greater than multiplicative joint effect between ever tobacco and alcohol use was observed for head and neck cancer risk (psi = 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-3.04). The PAR for tobacco or alcohol was 72% (95% confidence interval, 61-79%) for head and neck cancer, of which 4% was due to alcohol alone, 33% was due to tobacco alone, and 35% was due to tobacco and alcohol combined. The total PAR differed by subsite (64% for oral cavity cancer, 72% for pharyngeal cancer, 89% for laryngeal cancer), by sex (74% for men, 57% for women), by age (33% for cases <45 years, 73% for cases >60 years), and by region (84% in Europe, 51% in North America, 83% in Latin America). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that the joint effect between tobacco and alcohol use is greater than multiplicative on head and neck cancer risk. However, a substantial proportion of head and neck cancers cannot be attributed to tobacco or alcohol use, particularly for oral cavity cancer and for head and neck cancer among women and among young-onset cases.

Amyloïdose cardiaque: une urgence diagnostique [Echocardiographic analysis in cardiac amyloidosis]

Systemic amyloidosis with cardiac involvement may clinically be suspected in the presence of heart failure or arrhythmia of unknown origin. Herein two cases of cardiac amyloidosis are described with a clinical presentation of heart failure refractory to usual treatment. The key role of echocardiography in the diagnosis and prognosis evaluation of cardiac amyloidosis is discussed. A treatment targeted against the generation of amyloid fibril should ideally be initiated before apparition of heart failure.

Service Quality Analysis in the Five Stars Resort Hotels of Cape Verde

The objective of this study was the identification of the attributes and dimensions of service quality affecting the service performance of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The reason boosting the initiative to do this research was the paramount role of the resort hotels in the development of the travel and tourism sector in Cape Verde, and the impact that today this sector has had in the economy of that country. The research opens with a literature review on the service quality theory in the hotel industry, starting from the middle of the 1980s with the classic model of service quality and SERVQUAL instrument to the analysis of recent models of service quality measurement in the hotel industry, as it is an example the scale of items developed in 2003 in the Lodging Quality Index (LQI). Furthermore, the study elaborates an analysis on the importance of the travel and tourism activities in the Cape Verde Islands, and it evidences the enormous importance of those activities in the performance of the Cape Verdean hotel industry. In sequence the study analyzes in details the hotel industry of Cape Verde and it identifies the market size of the five stars resort hotels and their current operators in that market. Moreover, the research develops with an online questionnaire elaborated and sent through the platforms of travel websites and communities to the guests whom have experienced the service of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The scope of the questionnaire was to assess the attributes and dimensions of service quality in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde. The results of the questionnaire were in sequence analyzed through descriptive and applied statistics, using Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Content validity analysis, factor analysis, and reliability analysis of the factors were made to purify an initial scale of 47 items of service quality. An instrument with three dimensions covering twenty four attributes of service quality assessment in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde was finally created. The three dimensions found were: staff competence; food and entertainment; and physical facilities. This study on the service in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde ends with brief comments on the status of service quality according to the identified dimensions and their attributes. In the conclusion, the study summarizes the whole work and gives some directions for future research.