Development priority zoning (DPZ)-led scenario simulation for regional land use change : the case of Suichang County, China

China has experienced an extraordinary level of economic development since the 1990s, following excessive competition between different regions. This has resulted in many resource and environmental problems. Land resources, for example, are either abused or wasted in many regions. The strategy of development priority zoning (DPZ), proposed by the Chinese National 11th Five-Year Plan, provides an opportunity to solve these problems by coordinating regional development and protection. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the DPZ strategy should be integrated with regional land use policy. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model for assessing land use change in China led by the DPZ strategy. Land use is characterized by the prioritization of land development, land utilization, land harness and land protection (D-U-H-P). By using the Delphi method, a corresponding suitable prioritization of D-U-H-P for the four types of DPZ, including optimized development zones (ODZ), key development zones (KDZ), restricted development zones (RDZ), and forbidden development zones (FDZ) are identified. Suichang County is used as a case study in which to conduct the simulation of land use change under the RDZ strategy. The findings enable a conceptualization to be made of DPZ-led land use change and the identification of further implications for land use planning generally. The SD model also provides a potential tool for local government to combine DPZ strategy at the national level with land use planning at the local level.

A simulation study of unified GPS and roadside ranging technologies for vehicle positioning

The future vehicle navigation for safety applications requires seamless positioning at the accuracy of sub-meter or better. However, standalone Global Positioning System (GPS) or Differential GPS (DGPS) suffer from solution outages while being used in restricted areas such as high-rise urban areas and tunnels due to the blockages of satellite signals. Smoothed DGPS can provide sub-meter positioning accuracy, but not the seamless requirement. A disadvantage of the traditional navigation aids such as Dead Reckoning and Inertial Measurement Unit onboard vehicles are either not accurate enough due to error accumulation or too expensive to be acceptable by the mass market vehicle users. One of the alternative technologies is to use the wireless infrastructure installed in roadside to locate vehicles in regions where the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals are not available (for example: inside tunnels, urban canyons and large indoor car parks). The examples of roadside infrastructure which can be potentially used for positioning purposes could include Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN)/Wireless Personal Area Network (WPAN) based positioning systems, Ultra-wide band (UWB) based positioning systems, Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC) devices, Locata’s positioning technology, and accurate road surface height information over selected road segments such as tunnels. This research reviews and compares the possible wireless technologies that could possibly be installed along roadside for positioning purposes. Models and algorithms of integrating different positioning technologies are also presented. Various simulation schemes are designed to examine the performance benefits of united GNSS and roadside infrastructure for vehicle positioning. The results from these experimental studies have shown a number of useful findings. It is clear that in the open road environment where sufficient satellite signals can be obtained, the roadside wireless measurements contribute very little to the improvement of positioning accuracy at the sub-meter level, especially in the dual constellation cases. In the restricted outdoor environments where only a few GPS satellites, such as those with 45 elevations, can be received, the roadside distance measurements can help improve both positioning accuracy and availability to the sub-meter level. When the vehicle is travelling in tunnels with known heights of tunnel surfaces and roadside distance measurements, the sub-meter horizontal positioning accuracy is also achievable. Overall, simulation results have demonstrated that roadside infrastructure indeed has the potential to provide sub-meter vehicle position solutions for certain road safety applications if the properly deployed roadside measurements are obtainable.

A risk simulation framework for information infrastructure protection

Information communication and technology (ICT) systems are almost ubiquitous in the modern world. It is hard to identify any industry, or for that matter any part of society, that is not in some way dependent on these systems and their continued secure operation. Therefore the security of information infrastructures, both on an organisational and societal level, is of critical importance. Information security risk assessment is an essential part of ensuring that these systems are appropriately protected and positioned to deal with a rapidly changing threat environment. The complexity of these systems and their inter-dependencies however, introduces a similar complexity to the information security risk assessment task. This complexity suggests that information security risk assessment cannot, optimally, be undertaken manually. Information security risk assessment for individual components of the information infrastructure can be aided by the use of a software tool, a type of simulation, which concentrates on modelling failure rather than normal operational simulation. Avoiding the modelling of the operational system will once again reduce the level of complexity of the assessment task. The use of such a tool provides the opportunity to reuse information in many different ways by developing a repository of relevant information to aid in both risk assessment and management and governance and compliance activities. Widespread use of such a tool allows the opportunity for the risk models developed for individual information infrastructure components to be connected in order to develop a model of information security exposures across the entire information infrastructure. In this thesis conceptual and practical aspects of risk and its underlying epistemology are analysed to produce a model suitable for application to information security risk assessment. Based on this work prototype software has been developed to explore these concepts for information security risk assessment. Initial work has been carried out to investigate the use of this software for information security compliance and governance activities. Finally, an initial concept for extending the use of this approach across an information infrastructure is presented.

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training.

RCA method for fault diagnosis in digital substations of power systems

The authors present a Cause-Effect fault diagnosis model, which utilises the Root Cause Analysis approach and takes into account the technical features of a digital substation. The Dempster/Shafer evidence theory is used to integrate different types of fault information in the diagnosis model so as to implement a hierarchical, systematic and comprehensive diagnosis based on the logic relationship between the parent and child nodes such as transformer/circuit-breaker/transmission-line, and between the root and child causes. A real fault scenario is investigated in the case study to demonstrate the developed approach in diagnosing malfunction of protective relays and/or circuit breakers, miss or false alarms, and other commonly encountered faults at a modern digital substation.

Numerical simulation of a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation in non-homogeneous porous media

Percolation flow problems are discussed in many research fields, such as seepage hydraulics, groundwater hydraulics, groundwater dynamics and fluid dynamics in porous media. Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional-order behavior that may vary with time, or space, or space and time. The theory of pseudodifferential operators and equations has been used to deal with this situation. In this paper we use a fractional Darcys law with variable order Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives, this leads to a new variable-order fractional percolation equation. In this paper, a new two-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation is considered. A new implicit numerical method and an alternating direct method for the two-dimensional variable-order fractional model is proposed. Consistency, stability and convergence of the implicit finite difference method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods. This technique can be used to simulate a three-dimensional variable-order fractional percolation equation.

Numerical simulation of a fractional mathematical model for epidermal wound healing

A number of mathematical models investigating certain aspects of the complicated process of wound healing are reported in the literature in recent years. However, effective numerical methods and supporting error analysis for the fractional equations which describe the process of wound healing are still limited. In this paper, we consider numerical simulation of fractional model based on the coupled advection-diffusion equations for cell and chemical concentration in a polar coordinate system. The space fractional derivatives are defined in the Left and Right Riemann-Liouville sense. Fractional orders in advection and diffusion terms belong to the intervals (0; 1) or (1; 2], respectively. Some numerical techniques will be used. Firstly, the coupled advection-diffusion equations are decoupled to a single space fractional advection-diffusion equation in a polar coordinate system. Secondly, we propose a new implicit difference method for simulating this equation by using the equivalent of the Riemann-Liouville and Gr¨unwald-Letnikov fractional derivative definitions. Thirdly, its stability and convergence are discussed, respectively. Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

A new analytic approach for power system fault diagnosis employing the temporal information of alarm messages

Traditional analytic models for power system fault diagnosis are usually formulated as an unconstrained 0–1 integer programming problem. The key issue of the models is to seek the fault hypothesis that minimizes the discrepancy between the actual and the expected states of the concerned protective relays and circuit breakers. The temporal information of alarm messages has not been well utilized in these methods, and as a result, the diagnosis results may be not unique and hence indefinite, especially when complicated and multiple faults occur. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a novel analytic model employing the temporal information of alarm messages along with the concept of related path. The temporal relationship among the actions of protective relays and circuit breakers, and the different protection configurations in a modern power system can be reasonably represented by the developed model, and therefore, the diagnosed results will be more definite under different circumstances of faults. Finally, an actual power system fault was served to verify the proposed method.

Assessing of circuit breaker restrike risks using computer simulation and wavelet analysis

A breaker restrike is an abnormal arcing phenomenon, leading to a possible breaker failure. Eventually, this failure leads to interruption of the transmission and distribution of the electricity supply system until the breaker is replaced. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks in power systems. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method and a restrike hardware detection algorithm were developed by M.S. Ramli and B. Kasztenny. However, the limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current restrike detection methods and algorithms require the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and high voltage dividers. A restrike switch model using Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Wavelet Transforms which support diagnostics are proposed. Restrike phenomena become a new diagnostic process using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms for online interrupter monitoring. This research project investigates the restrike switch model Parameter „A. dielectric voltage gradient related to a normal and slowed case of the contact opening velocity and the escalation voltages, which can be used as a diagnostic tool for a vacuum circuit-breaker (CB) at service voltages between 11 kV and 63 kV. During current interruption of an inductive load at current quenching or chopping, a transient voltage is developed across the contact gap. The dielectric strength of the gap should rise to a point to withstand this transient voltage. If it does not, the gap will flash over, resulting in a restrike. A straight line is fitted through the voltage points at flashover of the contact gap. This is the point at which the gap voltage has reached a value that exceeds the dielectric strength of the gap. This research shows that a change in opening contact velocity of the vacuum CB produces a corresponding change in the slope of the gap escalation voltage envelope. To investigate the diagnostic process, an ATP restrike switch model was modified with contact opening velocity computation for restrike waveform signature analyses along with experimental investigations. This also enhanced a mathematical CB model with the empirical dielectric model for SF6 (sulphur hexa-fluoride) CBs at service voltages above 63 kV and a generalised dielectric curve model for 12 kV CBs. A CB restrike can be predicted if there is a similar type of restrike waveform signatures for measured and simulated waveforms. The restrike switch model applications are used for: computer simulations as virtual experiments, including predicting breaker restrikes; estimating the interrupter remaining life of SF6 puffer CBs; checking system stresses; assessing point-on-wave (POW) operations; and for a restrike detection algorithm development using Wavelet Transforms. A simulated high frequency nozzle current magnitude was applied to an Equation (derived from the literature) which can calculate the life extension of the interrupter of a SF6 high voltage CB. The restrike waveform signatures for a medium and high voltage CB identify its possible failure mechanism such as delayed opening, degraded dielectric strength and improper contact travel. The simulated and measured restrike waveform signatures are analysed using Matlab software for automatic detection. Experimental investigation of a 12 kV vacuum CB diagnostic was carried out for the parameter determination and a passive antenna calibration was also successfully developed with applications for field implementation. The degradation features were also evaluated with a predictive interpretation technique from the experiments, and the subsequent simulation indicates that the drop in voltage related to the slow opening velocity mechanism measurement to give a degree of contact degradation. A predictive interpretation technique is a computer modeling for assessing switching device performance, which allows one to vary a single parameter at a time; this is often difficult to do experimentally because of the variable contact opening velocity. The significance of this thesis outcome is that it is a non-intrusive method developed using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms to predict and interpret a breaker restrike risk. The measurements on high voltage circuit-breakers can identify degradation that can interrupt the distribution and transmission of an electricity supply system. It is hoped that the techniques for the monitoring of restrike phenomena developed by this research will form part of a diagnostic process that will be valuable for detecting breaker stresses relating to the interrupter lifetime. Suggestions for future research, including a field implementation proposal to validate the restrike switch model for ATP system studies and the hot dielectric strength curve model for SF6 CBs, are given in Appendix A.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Physically sound vehicle-driver model for realistic microscopic simulation

In microscopic traffic simulators, the interaction between vehicles is considered. The dynamics of the system then becomes an emergent property of the interaction between its components. Such interactions include lane-changing, car-following behaviours and intersection management. Although, in some cases, such simulators produce realistic prediction, they do not allow for an important aspect of the dynamics, that is, the driver-vehicle interaction. This paper introduces a physically sound vehicle-driver model for realistic microscopic simulation. By building a nanoscopic traffic simulation model that uses steering angle and throttle position as parameters, the model aims to overcome unrealistic acceleration and deceleration values, as found in various microscopic simulation tools. A physics engine calculates the driving force of the vehicle, and the preliminary results presented here, show that, through a realistic driver-vehicle-environment simulator, it becomes possible to model realistic driver and vehicle behaviours in a traffic simulation.

Improving stability of a DFIG-based wind power system with tuned damping controller

This paper focuses on the implementation of a damping controller for the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) system. Coordinated tuning of the damping controller to enhance the damping of the oscillatory modes is presented using bacterial foraging technique. The effect of the tuned damping controller on converter ratings of the DFIG system is also investigated. The results of both eigenvalue analysis and the time-domain simulation studies are presented to elucidate the effectiveness of the tuned damping controller in the DFIG system. The improvement of the fault ride-through capability of the system is also demonstrated.

Simulation-based comparison of pull-push system in motorcycle assembly line

To investigate the effects of adopting a pull system in assembly lines in contrast to a push system, simulation software called “ARENA” is used as a tool in order to present numerical results from both systems. Simulation scenarios are created to evaluate the effects of attributes changing in assembly systems, with influential factors including the change of manufacturing system (push system to pull system) and variation of demand. Moreover, pull system manufacturing consists of the addition attribute, which is the number of buffer storage. This paper will provide an analysis based on a previous case study, hence process time and workflow refer to the journal name “Optimising and simulating the assembly line balancing problem in a motorcycle manufacturing company: a case study” [2]. The implementation of the pull system mechanism is to produce a system improvement in terms of the number of Work-In-Process (WIP), total time of products in the system, and the number of finished product inventory, while retaining the same throughput.

An assessment tool for selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical and subtropical regions : Validation using radiance simulation

A new decision-making tool that will assist designers in the selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical locations has been previously proposed by the authors. Through an evaluation matrix that prioritizes the parameters that best respond to the needs of tropical climates (e.g. reducing solar gain and protection from glare) the tool determines the most appropriate devices for specific climate and building inputs. The tool is effective in demonstrating the broad benefits and limitations of the different daylight strategies for buildings in the tropics. However for thorough analysis and calibration of the tool, validation is necessary. This paper presents a first step in the validation process. RADIANCE simulations were conducted to compare simulation performance with the performance predicted by the tool. To this end, an office building case study in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, and five different daylighting devices including openings, light guiding systems and light transport systems were simulated. Illuminance, light uniformity, daylight penetration and glare analysis were assessed for each device. The results indicate the tool can appropriately rank and recommend daylighting strategies based on specific building inputs for tropical and subtropical regions, making it a useful resource for designers.