河道砂油藏产能预测系统研究

Productivity prediction is a serious factor to oil reservoir management and working out economic plans so that it is paid great attention to all the time. Gudao Oil Field, which has been yielding more than 100 million tons of crude oil accumulatively since it was put into developing in 1970's as a complete set of oil field, now entering double extra high water-bearing period after productivity construction, stable production and depletion stage. It's main layer series of development is thought to be type of channel sand reservoir in east China. Form channel sand reservoir in upper Guantao Group of Shengli Oil Field, there are several large oil fields such as Gudao, Gudong and Chengdao etc. with almost one-third reserves of whole Shengli Oil Field. It is considered the common characteristics in this area would be that the layer is less developed, the sand distribution is sporadic, the connectivity is weak, the heterogeneity is strong in plane, the oil layer is unconsolidated with big porosity, high permeability and serious sanding, and the oil is heavy. Because of the restricted factors to productivity of this kind of reservoir, it is very significant to study the productivity prediction this kind of reservoir. By selecting the upstream fluvial reservoir in Guantao Group of Neogene system as researching object, the author studied the forecasting technology with heterogeneous reservoir. Firstly, the author constructed the 3D subtle geological model quantificationally through researching exploitation geology in the way of combination of dynamic and static methods. Secondly, by the aid of dynamic material obtained while producing, the author analyzed the oil distribution law and influencing factors, then finished dynamic oil reservoir description on the basis of static oil reservoir description. Thirdly, via comparing and analyzing all the forecasting methods of productivity existed, the author developed a set of method to forecast productivity of single well and oil field which fit to channel sand reservoir. At last, under the support of ORACLE database, with the advanced computer technology, the author programmed the software called 'Channel Sand Reservoir Prediction System'. Up to now, this system has been putting into use in Gudao Oil Field and very successful.

准噶尔盆地中拐东北斜坡油气成藏条件研究——西部压性盆地含油气系统理论的研究与实践

This paper builds the model of oil accumulation and achieves the prediction of exploration goal. It uses multiple subject means, the ways of synthetic research and the viewpoint of analyzing genesis, with the academic guidance of sedimentology, structural geology, petroleum geology and geochemistry, the basis of strata sequence frame and structural frame, the frame of "four history" - the burying history, the structural history, the filling history and the evolving history of oil, the masterstroke of hydrocarbon's generation, migration and accumulation, the aim of revealing the genetic relation between mature source rock and oil reservoir in space and time. Some achievements and viewpoints in this study are following. 1. It is proposed that the structural evolution in this area had many periods, and the structural movement of the Xiazijie group telophase formed the structural pattern for the first time. 2. The character of strata sequence in this area is divided by the character of episodic cycle firstly. The study of dividing the facies of single well and the facies of well tie is based on the data of single well. The character of sedimentary facies is con-structed initially. 3. It is believed that Jiamuhe group is the main source rock, which can supply considerable oil and gas resources for the first time. Some criterions of source rock such as the type ,the abundance in Jiamuhe group are analysed. Using the thermal history of source rock, we drawn a conclusion that the original type of source rock in Jiamuhe group is II_1-III, and the abundance achived the level of good source rock, and this set of source rock had contributed to this area. 4. The reservoir strata in this area are assessed and analysed with the reservoir evaluation. There are multi-type reservoirs, such as volcanic lava facies, sedimentary clast facies, continental belch facies. The physical property in reservoir strata is characterized by low porosity and low permeability. The study of diagenetic stage show that the diageneses in Jiamuhe group is A-Bsubage, and the reservoir room is mainly secondary corroded hollow and cleft. 5. The synthetic research on oil system in Jiamuhe group is made for the first time. The type of petroleum system is divided , and we consider that the petroleum system of Jiamuhe group is at the reliable rank. There are two critical time in oil accumulation through studying the critical time of oil accumulation : the early generation of hydrocarbon is oil, and the later is gas. 6. The mechanism of accumulation is analysed. We consider that the accu-mulation of oil in this area has many periods, and the early generated hydrocarbon is expeled by the later , and formed the character of zonal distribution in planar. 7. A bran-new model of oil and gas is proposed. Beneficial enrichment area of oil and gas is analyzed, which can be divided into three sections: Section I can be divided into two sections: I_1 and I_2. The lower subgroup of Jiamuhe is covered by the triassic layer of I_1 section. Fault zone and near the foot wall of fault are charactered with thick phase belt. Then the cover capability in this area is relatively poor, oil can migrate into triassic layer by vertical or lateral migration , and forms I_1 Kelamayi triassic oil pool consequently. The lower subgroup of Jiamuhe is covered by the triassic layer of I_2 section ,which is charactered with thin phase belt. Then the cover capability in this area is relatively good, and forms I_1 Kelamayi triassic oil pool consequently. Section II can be divided into two sections: II_1-I_(I~2). The cover of Jiamuhe group in section II_1 is the low resistivity segment in Wuerhe group, which has thin lithology and poor porosity and permeability. Oil and gas in Jiamuhe group can be covered to form beneficial accumulation area. There are some wells in this area, such as Ke 007 well, 561 well. The thick phase belt layer of Wuerhe high resistivity segment in section II_2 has unconformable relation with Jiamuhe group. The cover ability of the high resistivity segment is poor, petroleum in Jiamuhe can migrate into Wuerhe layer vertically. This area is the beneficial area for accumulating petroleum in Wuerhe layer. there are some wells in this area, such as Ke 75 well, Ke 76 well, Ke 77 well, Ke 78 well, Ke 79 well. Section III can also be divided into two sections: III_1 and III_2. Wuerhe group in section III_1 has unconformable relation with Jiamuhe group. There is thick lithology and poor cover in Wuerhe group, but the strata sequence evolution character of upper subgroup in Jiamuhe group has determined that it has lateral and vertical cover ability. thus, this area is petroleum abundant belt of jiamuhe group, which has the trap. Section III_2 is an area controled by wedgeout of Fengcheng group, Fengcheng group in this area has quite thick lithology so that It has beneficial resevoir phase belt. It can accumulate oil in itself or accept some oil in Jiamuhe group. Jiamuhe group has some oil accumulation condition in this area. Thus, section III_2 is jiamuhe-Fengcheng multiple petroleum accumulation belt, such as Ke 80 well. 8. The goal of exploration is suggested: Depositional trap or combination trap is the important aspect in later exploration. Both types of traps are the goal of the next drilling: Fault block trap in the east of 576 well and the NO. 2 fault block trap in the north of Ke 102 well It is suggested that we should study the law of oil and gas in Jiamuhe group and enhance the study of combination in forming reservoir and trap scale. We do some lithology forecast and reservoir diatropic forecast in order to know the area of oil and gas.

三峡库区滑坡的时空分布、成因及其预报模式

Landslides are widely distributed along the main stream banks of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. Especially with the acceleration of the human economic activities in the recent 30 years, the occurrence of landslide hazards in the local area trends to be more serious. Because of the special geological, topographic and climatic conditions of the Three Gorges areas, many Paleo-landslides are found along the gentle slope terrain of the population relocation sites. Under the natural condition, the Paleo-landslides usually keep stable. The Paleo-landslides might revive while they are influenced under the strong rainfall, water storage and migration engineering disturbance. Therefore, the prediction and prevention of landslide hazards have become the important problem involving with the safety of migration engineering of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The past research on the landslides of the Three Gorges area is mainly concentrated on the stability analysis of individual landslide, and importance was little attached to the knowledge on the geological environment background of the formation of regional landslides. So, the relationship between distribution and evolution of landslides and globe dynamic processes was very scarce in the past research. With further study, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons for the magnitude and frequency of major geological hazards in terms of single endogenic or exogenic processes. It is possible to resolve the causes of major landslides in the Three Gorges area through the systematic research of regional tectonics and river evolution history.In present paper, based on the view of coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic processes, the author researches the temporal and spacial distribution and formation evolution of major landslides(Volume^lOOX 104m3) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through integration of first-hand sources statistics, .geological evolution history, isotope dating and numerical simulation method etc. And considering the main formation factors of landslides (topography, geology and rainfall condition), the author discusses the occurrence probability and prediction model of rainfall induced landslides.The distribution and magnitude of Paleo-landslides in the Three Gorges area is mainly controlled by lithology, geological structure, bank slope shape and geostress field etc. The major Paleo-landslides are concentrated on the periods 2.7-15.0 X 104aB.R, which conrresponds to the warm and wettest Paleoclimate stages. In the same time, the Three Gorges area experiences with the quickest crust uplift phase since 15.0X 104aB.P. It is indicated that the dynamic factor of polyphase major Paleo-landslides is the coupling processes of neotectonic movement and Quaternary climate changes. Based on the numerical simulation results of the formation evolution of Baota landslide, the quick crust uplift makes the deep river incision and the geostress relief causes the rock body of banks flexible. Under the strong rainfall condition, the pore-water pressure resulted from rain penetration and high flood level can have the shear strength of weak structural plane decrease to a great degree. Therefore, the bank slope is easy to slide at the slope bottom where shear stress concentrates. Finally, it forms the composite draught-traction type landslide of dip stratified rocks.The susceptibility idea for the rainfall induced landslide is put forward in this paper and the degree of susceptibility is graded in terms of the topography and geological conditions of landslides. Base on the integration with geological environment factors and rainfall condition, the author gives a new probabilistic prediction model for rainfall induced landslides. As an example from Chongqing City of the Three Gorges area, selecting the 5 factors of topography, lithology combination, slope shape, rock structure and hydrogeology and 21 kinds of status as prediction variables, the susceptibility zonation is carried out by information methods. The prediction criterion of landslides is established by two factors: the maximum 24 hour rainfall and the antecedent effective precipitation of 15 days. The new prediction model is possible to actualize the real-time regional landslide prediction and improve accuracy of landslide forecast.

龙滩水电站左岸边坡监测信息系统研制及其监测资料分析

Guangxi Longtan Hydropower Station is not only a representative project of West Developing and Power Transmission from West to East in China, but also the second Hydropower Station to Three Gorges Project which is under construction in China. There are 770 X 104m3 creeping rock mass on the left bank slope in upper reaches, in which laid 9 water inlet tunnels and some underground plant buildings. Since the 435m high excavated slope threatens the security of the Dam, its deformation and stability is of great importance to the power station.Based on the Autodesk Map2004, Longtan Hydropower Station Monitoring Information System on Left Bank has been basically finished on the whole. Integrating the hydropower station monitoring information into Geographic Information System(GIS) environment, managers and engineers can dynamically gain the deformation information of the slop by query the symbols. By this means, designers can improve the correctness of analysis, and make a strategic and proper decision. Since the system is beneficial to effectively manage the monitoring-data, equitably save the cost of design and safe construction, and decrease the workload of the engineers, it is a successful application to the combination of hydropower station monitoring information management and computer information system technology.At the same time, on the basis of the geological analysis and rock mass toppling deformation and failure mechanism analysis of Longtan engineering left bank slope, the synthetic space-time analysis and influence factors analysis on the surface monitoring data and deep rock mass monitoring data of A-zone on left bank slope are carried on. It shows that the main intrinsic factor that effects the deformation of Zone A is the argillite limestone interbedding toppling structure, and its main external factors are rain and slope excavation. What's more, Degree of Reinforcement Demand(DRD) has been used to evaluate the slop reinforce effect of Zone A on left bank according to the Engineering Geomechanics-mate-Synthetics(EGMS). The result shows that the slop has been effective reinforced, and it is more stable after reinforce.At last, on the basis of contrasting with several forecast models, a synthetic forecast GRAV model has been presented and used to forecast the deformation of zone A on left bank in generating electricity period. The result indicates that GRAV model has good forecast precision, strong stability, and practical valuable reliability.

Fault identification through the combination of symbolic conflict recognition and Markov Chain-aided belief revision

F. Smith and Q. Shen. Fault identification through the combination of symbolic conflict recognition and Markov Chain-aided belief revision. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, 34(5):649-663, 2004.

An EORTC phase I study of capecitabine (Xeloda) in combination with fixed doses of cyclophosphamide and epirubicin (cex) as primary treatment for large operable or locally advanced/inflammatory breast cancer.

In breast cancer, chemotherapy regimens that include infusional 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) lead to high response rates, but require central venous access and pumps. To avoid these inconveniences, we substituted infusional 5-FU with capecitabine. The main objective of this study was to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of capecitabine when given in combination with fixed doses of epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (100 and 600 mg/m(2) day 1 every (q) 3 weeks) as primary treatment for large operable or locally advanced/inflammatory breast cancer without distant metastasis. Capecitabine was escalated from 750 mg/m(2) twice a day (bid) to 1250 mg/m(2) bid from day 1 to day 14 in four dose levels. Dose escalation was permitted if 0/3 or 1/6 patients experienced dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). A total of 23 patients were included and 117 courses were administered. At dose level 4, 2 of 2 patients presented DLTs defining the MTD. A high rate of capecitabine treatment modification was required with capecitabine 1050 mg/m(2) bid (dose level 3). 19 patients achieved an objective response (83%). In conclusion, we believe that capecitabine 900 mg/m(2) bid (dose level 2) is the recommended dose in combination with epirubicin 100 mg/m(2) and cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m(2). The acceptable toxicity profile and encouraging activity of this regimen warrant further evaluation.

An EORTC phase I study of epirubicin in combination with fixed doses of cyclophosphamide and infusional 5-fu (CEF-infu) as primary treatment of large operable or locally advanced/inflammatory breast cancer.

PURPOSE: The association of continuous infusion 5-fluorouracil, epirubicin (50 mg/m2 q 3 weeks) and a platinum compound (cisplatin or carboplatin) was found to be very active in patients with either locally advanced/inflammatory (LA/I) [1, 2] or large operable (LO) breast cancer (BC) [3]. The same rate of activity in terms of response rate (RR) and response duration was observed in LA/I BC patients when cisplatin was replaced by cyclophosphamide [4]. The dose of epirubicin was either 50 mg/m2 [ 1, 2, 3] or 60 mg/m2/cycle [4]. The main objective of this study was to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of epirubicin when given in combination with fixed doses of cyclophosphamide and infusional 5-fluorouracil (CEF-infu) as neoadjuvant therapy in patients with LO or LA/I BC for a maximum of 6 cycles. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eligible patients had LO or LA/I BC, a performance status 0-1, adequate organ function and were <65 years old. Cyclophosphamide was administered at the dose of 400 mg/m2 day 1 and 8, q 4 weeks and infusional 5-fluorouracil 200 mg/m2/day was given day 1-28, q 4 weeks. Epirubicin was escalated from 30 to 45 and to 60 mg/m2 day 1 and 8; dose escalation was permitted if 0/3 or 1/6 patients experienced dose limiting toxicity (DLT) during the first 2 cycles of therapy. DLT for epirubicin was defined as febrile neutropenia, grade 4 neutropenia lasting for >7 days, grade 4 thrombocytopenia, or any non-haematological toxicity of CTC grade > or =3, excluding alopecia and plantar-palmar erythrodysesthesia (this toxicity was attributable to infusional 5-fluorouracil and was not considered a DLT of epirubicin). RESULTS: A total of 21 patients, median age 44 years (range 29-63) have been treated. 107 courses have been delivered, with a median number of 5 cycles per patient (range 4-6). DLTs on cycles I and 2 on level 1, 2, 3: grade 3 (G3) mucositis occurred in 1/10 patients treated at the third dose level. An interim analysis showed that G3 PPE occurred in 5/16 pts treated with the 28-day infusional 5-FU schedule at the 3 dose levels. The protocol was subsequently amended to limit the duration of infusional 5-fluorouracil infusion from 4 to 3 weeks. No G3 PPE was detected in 5 patients treated with this new schedule. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes that epirubicin 60mg/m2 day 1 and 8, cyclophosphamide 400mg/m2 day 1 and 8 and infusional 5-fluorouracil 200 mg/m2/day day 1-21. q 4 weeks is the recommended dose level. Given the encouraging activity of this regimen (15/21 clinical responses) we have replaced infusional 5-fluorouracil by oral capecitabine in a recently activated study.

A feasibility study evaluating docetaxel-based sequential and combination regimens in the adjuvant therapy of node-positive breast cancer

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Docetaxel is an active agent in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. We evaluated the feasibility of docetaxel-based sequential and combination regimens as adjuvant therapies for patients with node-positive breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three consecutive groups of patients with node-positive breast cancer or locally-advanced disease, aged < or = 70 years, received one of the following regimens: a) sequential A-->T-->CMF: doxorubicin 75 mg/m2 q 3 weeks x 3, followed by docetaxel 100 mg/m2 q 3 weeks x 3, followed by i.v. CMF days 1 + 8 q 4 weeks x 3; b) sequential accelerated A-->T-->CMF: A and T were administered at the same doses q 2 weeks; c) combination therapy: doxorubicin 50 mg/m2 + docetaxel 75 mg/m2 q 3 weeks x 4, followed by CMF x 4. When indicated, radiotherapy was administered during or after CMF, and tamoxifen started after the end of CMF. RESULTS: Seventy-nine patients have been treated. Median age was 48 years. A 30% rate of early treatment discontinuation was observed in patients receiving the sequential accelerated therapy (23% during A-->T), due principally to severe skin toxicity. Median relative dose-intensity was 100% in the three treatment arms. The incidence of G3-G4 major toxicities by treated patients, was as follows: skin toxicity a: 5%; b: 27%; c: 0%; stomatitis a: 20%; b: 20%; c: 3%. The incidence of neutropenic fever was a: 30%; b: 13%; c: 48%. After a median follow-up of 18 months, no late toxicity has been reported. CONCLUSIONS: The accelerated sequential A-->T-->CMF treatment is not feasible due to an excess of skin toxicity. The sequential non accelerated and the combination regimens are feasible and under evaluation in a phase III trial of adjuvant therapy.

3-year results of docetaxel-based sequential and combination regimens in the adjuvant therapy of node-positive breast cancer: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Docetaxel has proven efficacy in metastatic breast cancer. In this pilot study, we explored the efficacy/feasibility of docetaxel-based sequential and combination regimens as adjuvant therapy of node-positive breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From March 1996 till March 1998, four consecutive groups of patients with stages II and III breast cancer, aged < or = 70 years, received one of the following regimens: a) sequential Doxorubicin (A) --> Docetaxel (T) --> CMF (Cyclophosphamide+Methotrexate+5-Fluorouracil): A 75 mg/m q 3 wks x 3, followed by T100 mg/m2 q 3 wks x 3, followed by i.v. CMF Days 1+8 q 4 wks x 3; b) sequential accelerated A --> T --> CMF: A and T administered at the same doses q 2 wks with Lenograstin support; c) combination therapy: A 50 mg/m2 + T 75 mg/m2 q 3 wks x 4, followed by CMF x 4; d) sequential T --> A --> CMF: T and A, administered as in group a), with the reverse sequence. When indicated, radiotherapy was administered during or after CMF, and Tamoxifen after CMF. RESULTS: Ninety-three patients were treated. The median age was 48 years (29-66) and the median number of positive axillary nodes was 6 (1-25). Tumors were operable in 94% and locally advanced in 6% of cases. Pathological tumor size was >2 cm in 72% of cases. There were 21 relapses, (18 systemic, 3 locoregional) and 11 patients (12%) have died from disease progression. At median follow-up of 39 months (6-57), overall survival (OS) was 87% (95% CI, 79-94%) and disease-free survival (DFS) was 76% (95% CI, 67%-85%). CONCLUSION: The efficacy of these docetaxel-based regimens, in terms of OS and DFS, appears to be at least as good as standard anthracycline-based adjuvant chemotherapy (CT), in similar high-risk patient populations.

Taxanes alone or in combination with anthracyclines as first-line therapy of patients with metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Taxanes (paclitaxel or docetaxel) have been sequenced or combined with anthracyclines (doxorubicin or epirubicin) for the first-line treatment of advanced breast cancer. This meta-analysis uses data from all relevant trials to detect any advantages of taxanes in terms of tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), and survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on eight randomized combination trials comparing anthracyclines + taxanes (+ cyclophosphamide in one trial) with anthracyclines + cyclophosphamide (+ fluorouracil in four trials), and on three single-agent trials comparing taxanes with anthracyclines. Combination trials included 3,034 patients; single-agent trials included 919 patients. RESULTS: Median follow-up of living patients was 43 months, median survival was 19.3 months, and median PFS was 7.1 months. In single-agent trials, response rates were similar in the taxanes (38%) and in the anthracyclines (33%) arms (P = .08). The hazard ratios for taxanes compared with anthracyclines were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.36; P = .011) for PFS and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.16; P = .90) for survival. In combination trials, response rates were 57% (10% complete) in taxane-based combinations and 46% (6% complete) in control arms (P < .001). The hazard ratios for taxane-based combinations compared with control arms were 0.92 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99; P = .031) for PFS and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.88 to 1.03; P = .24) for survival. CONCLUSION: Taxanes were significantly worse than single-agent anthracyclines in terms of PFS, but not in terms of response rates or survival. Taxane-based combinations were significantly better than anthracycline-based combinations in terms of response rates and PFS, but not in terms of survival.

Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Early versus delayed fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine in patients with HIV and tuberculosis in Tanzania.

Fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine (ABC/3TC/ZDV) among HIV-1 and tuberculosis (TB)-coinfected patients was evaluated and outcomes between early vs. delayed initiation were compared. In a randomized, pilot study conducted in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, HIV-infected inpatients with smear-positive TB and total lymphocyte count <1200/mm(3) were randomized to initiate ABC/3TC/ZDV either 2 (early) or 8 (delayed) weeks after commencing antituberculosis therapy and were followed for 104 weeks. Of 94 patients screened, 70 enrolled (41% female, median CD4 count 103 cells/mm(3)), and 33 in each group completed 104 weeks. Two deaths and 12 serious adverse events (SAEs) were observed in the early arm vs. one death, one clinical failure, and seven SAEs in the delayed arm (p = 0.6012 for time to first grade 3/4 event, SAE, or death). CD4 cell increases were +331 and +328 cells/mm(3), respectively. TB-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndromes (TB-IRIS) were not observed in any subject. Using intent-to-treat (ITT), missing = failure analyses, 74% (26/35) vs. 89% (31/35) randomized to early vs. delayed therapy had HIV RNA levels <400 copies/ml at 104 weeks (p = 0.2182) and 66% (23/35) vs. 74% (26/35), respectively, had HIV RNA levels <50 copies/ml (p = 0.6026). In an analysis in which switches from ABC/3TC/ZDV = failure, those receiving early therapy were less likely to be suppressed to <400 copies/ml [60% (21/35) vs. 86% (30/35), p = 0.030]. TB-IRIS was not observed among the 70 coinfected subjects beginning antiretroviral treatment. ABC/3TC/ZDV was well tolerated and resulted in steady immunologic improvement. Rates of virologic suppression were similar between early and delayed treatment strategies with triple nucleoside regimens when substitutions were allowed.