A Spatial Propensity Score Matching Evaluation of the Social Impacts of Sugarcane Growing on Municipalities in Brazil

The expansion of sugarcane growing in Brazil, spurred particularly by increased demand for ethanol, has triggered the need to evaluate the economic, social, and environmental impacts of this process, both on the country as a whole and on the growing regions. Even though the balance of costs and benefits is positive from an overall standpoint, this may not be so in specific producing regions, due to negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to estimate the effect of growing sugarcane on the human development index (HDI) and its sub-indices in cane producing regions. In the literature on matching effects, this is interpreted as the effect of the treatment on the treated. Location effects are controlled by spatial econometric techniques, giving rise to the spatial propensity score matching model. The authors analyze 424 minimum comparable areas (MCAs) in the treatment group, compared with 907 MCAs in the control group. The results suggest that the presence of sugarcane growing in these areas is not relevant to determine their social conditions, whether for better or worse. It is thus likely that public policies, especially those focused directly on improving education, health, and income generation/distribution, have much more noticeable effects on the municipal HDI.

Propensity score matching approach to test the association of income inequality and mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background Support for the adverse effect of high income inequality on population health has come from studies that focus on larger areas, such as the US states, while studies at smaller geographical areas (eg, neighbourhoods) have found mixed results. Methods We used propensity score matching to examine the relationship between income inequality and mortality rates across 96 neighbourhoods (distritos) of the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Results Prior to matching, higher income inequality distritos (Gini >= 0.25) had slightly lower overall mortality rates (2.23 per 10 000, 95% CI -23.92 to 19.46) compared to lower income inequality areas (Gini <0.25). After propensity score matching, higher inequality was associated with a statistically significant higher mortality rate (41.58 per 10 000, 95% CI 8.85 to 73.3). Conclusion In Sao Paulo, the more egalitarian communities are among some of the poorest, with the worst health profiles. Propensity score matching was used to avoid inappropriate comparisons between the health status of unequal (but wealthy) neighbourhoods versus equal (but poor) neighbourhoods. Our methods suggest that, with proper accounting of heterogeneity between areas, income inequality is associated with worse population health in Sao Paulo.

Assessment of candidemia-attributable mortality in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis

[EN] Introduction: Candidemia in critically ill patients is usually a severe and life-threatening condition with a high crude mortality. Very few studies have focused on the impact of candidemia on ICU patient outcome and attributable mortality still remains controversial. This study was carried out to determine the attributable mortality of ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients using propensity score matching analysis. Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted of all consecutive non-neutropenic adult patients admitted for at least seven days to 36 ICUs in Spain, France, and Argentina between April 2006 and June 2007. The probability of developing candidemia was estimated using a multivariate logistic regression model. Each patient with ICU-acquired candidemia was matched with two control patients with the nearest available Mahalanobis metric matching within the calipers defined by the propensity score. Standardized differences tests (SDT) for each variable before and after matching were calculated. Attributable mortality was determined by a modified Poisson regression model adjusted by those variables that still presented certain misalignments defined as a SDT > 10%. Results: Thirty-eight candidemias were diagnosed in 1,107 patients (34.3 episodes/1,000 ICU patients). Patients with and without candidemia had an ICU crude mortality of 52.6% versus 20.6% (P < 0.001) and a crude hospital mortality of 55.3% versus 29.6% (P = 0.01), respectively. In the propensity matched analysis, the corresponding figures were 51.4% versus 37.1% (P = 0.222) and 54.3% versus 50% (P = 0.680). After controlling residual confusion by the Poisson regression model, the relative risk (RR) of ICU- and hospital-attributable mortality from candidemia was RR 1.298 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.98) and RR 1.096 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.69), respectively. Conclusions: ICU-acquired candidemia in critically ill patients is not associated with an increase in either ICU or hospital mortality.

Effetti degli accordi Euro-Mediterrani sul comparto dell'ortofrutta fresca

In 1995, the European Union (EU) Member States and 12 Mediterranean countries launched in Barcelona a liberalization process that aims at establishing a free trade area (to be realized by 2010) and at promoting a sustainable and balanced economic development by the adoption of a new generation of Agreements: the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements (EMA). For the Mediterranean partner countries, the main concern is a better access for their fruit and vegetable exports to the European market. These products represent the main exports of these countries, and the EU is their first trading partner. On the other side, for the EU the main issue is not only the promotion of its products, but also the protection of its fruit and vegetables producers. Moreover, the trade with third countries is the key element of the Common Market Organization of the sector. Fruit and vegetables represent a very sensitive sector since their high seasonality, high perishability, and especially since the production of the Mediterranean countries is often similar to the European Mediterranean’s countries one. In fact, the agreements define preferences at the entrance of the EU market providing limited concessions for each partner, for specific products, limited quantities and calendars. This research tries to analyze the bilateral trade volume for fresh fruit and vegetables in the European and Italian markets in order to assess the effects of Mediterranean liberalization on this sector. Free trade of agricultural products represents a very actual topic in international trade and the Mediterranean countries, recognised as big producers of fruit and vegetables, as big exporters of their crops and actually significantly present on the European market, could be high competitors with the inward production because the outlet could be the same. The goal of this study is to provide some considerations about the competitiveness of mediterranean fruit and vegetables productions after Barcelona Process, in a first step for the European market and then also for the Italian one. The aim is to discuss the influence of the euro-mediterranean agreements on the fruit and vegetables trade between 10 foreign Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, and Turkey) and 15 EU countries in the period 1995-2007, by means of a gravity model, which is a widespread methodology in international trade analysis. The basic idea of gravity models is that bilateral trade from one country to another (as the dependent variable) can be explained by a set of factors: - factors that capture the potential of a country to export goods and services; - factors that capture the propensity of a country to imports goods and services; - any other forces that either attract or inhibit bilateral trade. This analysis compares only imports’ flows by Europe and by Italy (in volumes) from Mediterranean countries, since the exports’ flows toward those foreign countries are not significant, especially for Italy. The market of fruit and vegetables appears as a high heterogeneous group so it is very difficult to show a synthesis of the analysis performed and the related results. In fact, this sector includes the so called “poor products” (such as potatoes and legumes), and the “rich product”, such as nuts or exotic fruit, and there are a lot of different goods that arouse a dissimilar consumer demand which directly influence the import requirements. Fruit and vegetables sector includes products with extremely different biological cycles, leading to a very unlike seasonality. Moreover, the Mediterranean area appears as a highly heterogeneous bloc, including countries which differ from the others for economic size, production potential, capability to export and for the relationships with the EU. The econometric estimation includes 68 analyses, 34 of which considering the European import and 34 the Italian import and the products are examined in their aggregated form and in their disaggregated level. The analysis obtains a very high R2 coefficient, which means that the methodology is able to assess the import effects on fruit and vegetables associated to the Association Agreements, preferential tariffs, regional integration, and others information involved in the equation. The empirical analysis suggests that fruits and vegetables trade flows are well explained by some parameters: size of the involved countries (especially GDP and population of the Mediterranean countries); distances; prices of imported products; local production for the aggregated products; preferential expressed tariffs like duty free; sub-regional agreements that enforce the export capability. The euro-mediterranean agreements are significant in some of the performed analysis, confirming the slow and gradual evolution of euro- Mediterranean liberalization. The euro-mediterranean liberalization provides opportunities from one side, and imposes a new important challenge from the other side. For the EU the chance is that fruit and vegetables imported from the mediterranean area represent a support for local supply and a possibility to increase the range of products existing on the market. The challenge regards the competition of foreign products with the local ones since the types of productions are similar and markets coincide, especially in the Italian issue. We need to apply a strategy based not on a trade antagonism, but on the realization of a common plane market with the Mediterranean countries. This goal could be achieved enhancing the industrial cooperation in addition to commercial relationships, and increasing investments’ flows in the Mediterranean countries aiming at transforming those countries from potential competitors to trade partners and creating new commercial policies to export towards extra European countries.

La cooperazione agroalimentare associata in Italia: dimensioni, caratteristiche e comportamenti, con focalizzazione sull'impresa cooperativa orientata all'export

La tesi compie un'analisi sul ruolo della cooperazione nei mercati esteri, focalizzandosi, da un lato, sullo studio dei flussi di export nei settori dell'agroalimentare caratterizzati da una forte presenza cooperativa e, dall'altro, sulle caratteristiche di struttura ed i comportamenti delle imprese cooperative esportatrici e non esportatrici. A tal fine è stata realizzata un'indagine diretta che ha coinvolto un campione di 516 cooperative agroalimentari, delle quali 162 esportatrici e 354 non esportatrici. Sulla base dei risultati dell'indagine è stato possibile analizzare le caratteristiche strutturali ed i comportamenti delle cooperative non esportatrici ed esportatrici, focalizzandosi successivamente sulle modalità  di accesso al mercato estero delle cooperative esportatrici ed infine approfondendo le motivazioni che ostacolano l'export nelle cooperative non esportatrici.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Export Supply Chain Organization and Food Safety and Quality Standards: a case study of the Moroccan Fruit and Vegetable Sector

Agri-food supply chains extend beyond national boundaries, partially facilitated by a policy environment that encourages more liberal international trade. Rising concentration within the downstream sector has driven a shift towards “buyer-driven” global value chains (GVCs) extending internationally with global sourcing and the emergence of multinational key economic players that compete with increase emphasis on product quality attributes. Agri-food systems are thus increasingly governed by a range of inter-related public and private standards, both of which are becoming a priori mandatory, especially in supply chains for high-value and quality-differentiated agri-food products and tend to strongly affect upstream agricultural practices, firms’ internal organization and strategic behaviour and to shape the food chain organization. Notably, increasing attention has been given to the impact of SPS measures on agri-food trade and notably on developing countries’ export performance. Food and agricultural trade is the vital link in the mutual dependency of the global trade system and developing countries. Hence, developing countries derive a substantial portion of their income from food and agricultural trade. In Morocco, fruit and vegetable (especially fresh) are the primary agricultural export. Because of the labor intensity, this sector (especially citrus and tomato) is particularly important in terms of income and employment generation, especially for the female laborers hired in the farms and packing houses. Hence, the emergence of agricultural and agrifood product safety issues and the subsequent tightening of market requirements have challenged mutual gains due to the lack of technical and financial capacities of most developing countries.

A new global wheat marketmodel (GLOWMM) for the analysis of wheat export prices

Food commodity prices fluctuations have important impacts on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, while there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed in order to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors and also the link between food and energy prices. In this paper, we present results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides short and long-run impulse responses of wheat international prices to various real shocks.

Early fish oil supplementation and organ failure in patients with septic shock from abdominal infections: a propensity-matched cohort study

Fish oil (FO) has immunomodulating effects and may improve organ function and outcome in critically ill patients. This retrospective, propensity-matched cohort study investigates the effects of early intravenous FO supplementation on organ failure in patients with septic shock from abdominal infection.