Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

The recent Australian debate about the prohibition on cannabis use

This paper outlines the ethical arguments used in the Australian debate about whether or not to relax the prohibition on cannabis use by adults. Over the past two decades a rising prevalence of cannabis use in the Australian population has led to proposals for the decriminalization of the personal use of cannabis. Three states and territories have removed criminal penalties for personal use while criminal penalties are rarefy imposed in the remaining states. Libertarian arguments for legalization of cannabis use have attracted a great deal of media interest but very little public and political support. Other arguments in favour of decriminalization have attracted more support. One has been the utilitarian argument that prohibition has failed to deter cannabis use and the social costs of its continuation outweigh any benefits that it produces. Another has been the argument from hypocrisy that cannabis is less harmful than alcohol and so, on the grounds of consistency, if alcohol is legally available then so should cannabis. To date public opinion has not favoured legalization, although support for the decriminalization of personal cannabis use has increased. In the long term, the outcome of the debate may depend more upon trends in cannabis use and social attitudes among young adults than upon the persuasiveness of the arguments for a relaxation of the prohibition of cannabis.

Potential demand for hedging by Australian wheat producers

The potential for hedging Australian wheat with the new Sydney Futures Exchange wheat contract is examined using a theoretical hedging model parametised from previous studies. The optimal hedging ratio for an 'average' wheat farmer was found to be zero under reasonable assumptions about transaction costs and based on previously published measures of risk aversion. The estimated optimal hedging ratios were found by simulation to be quite sensitive to assumptions about the degree of risk aversion. If farmers are significantly more risk averse than is currently believed, then there is likely to be an active interest in the new futures market.

How can and do Australian doctors promote physical activity?

Background. Physical inactivity is recognized as an important public health issue. Yet little is known about doctors' knowledge, attitude, skills, and resources specifically relating to the promotion of physical activity. Our survey assessed the current practice, perceived desirable practice, confidence, and barriers related to the promotion of physical activity in family practice, Methods. A questionnaire was developed and distributed to all 1,228 family practitioners in Perth, Western Australia. Results. We received a 71% response (n = 789). Family practitioners are most likely to recommend walking to sedentary adults to improve fitness and they are aware of the major barriers to patients participating in physical activity. Doctors are less confident at providing specific advice on exercise and may require further skills, knowledge, and experience, Although they promote exercise to patients through verbal advice in the consultation, few use written materials or referral systems, Conclusions. There are significant differences between self-reports of current practice and perceived desirable practice in the promotion of physical activity by doctors, Future strategies need to address the self-efficacy of family physicians and involve resources of proven effectiveness. The potential of referral systems for supporting efforts to increase physical activity by Australians should be explored. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

Notopronocephalus peekayi gen. et sp. n. (Digenea: Pronocephalidae) from Australian freshwater turtles

Notopronocephalus peekayi gen, et sp, n. is described from the intestine of Elseya latisternum Gray, 1867, E. dentata (Gray, 1863) and Emydura signata Ahl, 1932 from rivers in Queensland. The new genus is distinguished by the absence of ventral glands, simple (neither diverticulate nor sinuous) caeca terminating at the anterior margin of the testes, excretory arms not uniting in forebody, single ovary, two opposite testes close to the posterior end of the body, intracaecal genital pore, vitelline follicles anterior to the testes, cirrus-sac orientated obliquely and not divided into two portions, and the uterus intracaecal. This is the first pronocephalid to be described from an Australian freshwater turtle and the first from the family Chelidae.