The best of both worlds: Producing national statistics using participatory methods

This paper presents our experience with combining statistical principles and participatory methods to generate national statistics. The methodology was developed in Malawi during 1999–2002. We demonstrate that if PRA is combined with statistical principles (including probability-based sampling and standardization), it can produce total population statistics and estimates of the proportion of households with certain characteristics (e.g., poverty). It can also provide quantitative data on complex issues of national importance such as poverty targeting. This approach is distinct from previous PRA-based approaches, which generate numbers at community level but only provide qualitative information at national level.

Two fast radiative transfer methods to improve the temporal sampling of clouds in numerical weather prediction and climate models

The high computational cost of calculating the radiative heating rates in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models requires that calculations are made infrequently, leading to poor sampling of the fast-changing cloud field and a poor representation of the feedback that would occur. This paper presents two related schemes for improving the temporal sampling of the cloud field. Firstly, the ‘split time-stepping’ scheme takes advantage of the independent nature of the monochromatic calculations of the ‘correlated-k’ method to split the calculation into gaseous absorption terms that are highly dependent on changes in cloud (the optically thin terms) and those that are not (optically thick). The small number of optically thin terms can then be calculated more often to capture changes in the grey absorption and scattering associated with cloud droplets and ice crystals. Secondly, the ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme uses a simple radiative transfer calculation using only one or two monochromatic calculations representing the optically thin part of the atmospheric spectrum. These are found to be sufficient to represent the heating rate increments caused by changes in the cloud field, which can then be added to the last full calculation of the radiation code. We test these schemes in an operational forecast model configuration and find a significant improvement is achieved, for a small computational cost, over the current scheme employed at the Met Office. The ‘incremental time-stepping’ scheme is recommended for operational use, along with a new scheme to correct the surface fluxes for the change in solar zenith angle between radiation calculations.

Comparing methods for sampling large- and medium-sized mammals: camera traps and track plots

Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

Evaluation of survey methods for sampling anuran species richness in the neotropics.

Species richness is central to ecological theory, with practical applications in conservation, environmental management and monitoring. Several techniques are available for measuring species richness and composition of amphibians in breeding pools, but the relative efficacy of these methods for sampling high-diversity Neotropical amphibian fauna is poorly understood. I evaluated seven studies from south and south-eastern Brazil to compare the relative and combined effectiveness of two methods for measuring species richness at anuran breeding pools: acoustic surveys with visual encounter of adults and dipnet surveys of larvae. I also compared the relative efficacy of each survey method in detecting species with different reproductive modes. Results showed that both survey methods underestimated the number of species when used separately; however, a close approximation of the actual number of species in each breeding pool was obtained when the methods were combined. There was no difference between survey methods in detecting species with different reproductive modes. These results indicate that researchers should employ multiple survey methods that target both adult and larval life history stages in order to accurately assess anuran species richness at breeding pools in the Neotropics.

Post-mortem tissue sampling using computed tomography guidance

PURPOSE: Currently, in forensic medicine cross-sectional imaging gains recognition and a wide use as a non-invasive examination approach. Today, computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging that are available for patients are unable to provide tissue information on the cellular level in a non-invasive manner and also diatom detection, DNA, bacteriological, chemical toxicological and other specific tissue analyses are impossible using radiology. We hypothesised that post-mortem minimally invasive tissue sampling using needle biopsies under CT guidance might significantly enhance the potential of virtual autopsy. The purpose of this study was to test the use of a clinically approved biopsy needle for minimally invasive post-mortem sampling of tissue specimens under CT guidance. MATERIAL AND METHODS: ACN III biopsy core needles 14 gauge x 160 mm with automatic pistol device were used on three bodies dedicated to research from the local anatomical institute. Tissue probes from the brain, heart, lung, liver, spleen, kidney and muscle tissue were obtained under CT fluoroscopy. RESULTS: CT fluoroscopy enabled accurate placement of the needle within the organs and tissues. The needles allowed for sampling of tissue probes with a mean width of 1.7 mm (range 1.2-2 mm) and the maximal length of 20 mm at all locations. The obtained tissue specimens were of sufficient size and adequate quality for histological analysis. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that, similar to the clinical experience but in many more organs, the tissue specimens obtained using the clinically approved biopsy needle are of a sufficient size and adequate quality for a histological examination. We suggest that post-mortem biopsy using the ACN III needle under CT guidance may become a reliable method for targeted sampling of tissue probes of the body.

Long-Range Pollution Transport: Trans-Atlantic Mechanisms and Lagrangian Modeling Methods

Over the past several decades, it has become apparent that anthropogenic activities have resulted in the large-scale enhancement of the levels of many trace gases throughout the troposphere. More recently, attention has been given to the transport pathway taken by these emissions as they are dispersed throughout the atmosphere. The transport pathway determines the physical characteristics of emissions plumes and therefore plays an important role in the chemical transformations that can occur downwind of source regions. For example, the production of ozone (O3) is strongly dependent upon the transport its precursors undergo. O3 can initially be formed within air masses while still over polluted source regions. These polluted air masses can experience continued O3 production or O3 destruction downwind, depending on the air mass's chemical and transport characteristics. At present, however, there are a number of uncertainties in the relationships between transport and O3 production in the North Atlantic lower free troposphere. The first phase of the study presented here used measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory and model simulations to determine transport pathways for US emissions to the observatory. The Pico Mountain observatory was established in the summer of 2001 in order to address the need to understand the relationships between transport and O3 production. Measurements from the observatory were analyzed in conjunction with model simulations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), FLEX-PART, in order to determine the transport pathway for events observed at the Pico Mountain observatory during July 2003. A total of 16 events were observed, 4 of which were analyzed in detail. The transport time for these 16 events varied from 4.5 to 7 days, while the transport altitudes over the ocean ranged from 2-8 km, but were typically less than 3 km. In three of the case studies, eastward advection and transport in a weak warm conveyor belt (WCB) airflow was responsible for the export of North American emissions into the FT, while transport in the FT was governed by easterly winds driven by the Azores/Bermuda High (ABH) and transient northerly lows. In the fourth case study, North American emissions were lofted to 6-8 km in a WCB before being entrained in the same cyclone's dry airstream and transported down to the observatory. The results of this study show that the lower marine FT may provide an important transport environment where O3 production may continue, in contrast to transport in the marine boundary layer, where O3 destruction is believed to dominate. The second phase of the study presented here focused on improving the analysis methods that are available with LPDMs. While LPDMs are popular and useful for the analysis of atmospheric trace gas measurements, identifying the transport pathway of emissions from their source to a receptor (the Pico Mountain observatory in our case) using the standard gridded model output, particularly during complex meteorological scenarios can be difficult can be difficult or impossible. The transport study in phase 1 was limited to only 1 month out of more than 3 years of available data and included only 4 case studies out of the 16 events specifically due to this confounding factor. The second phase of this study addressed this difficulty by presenting a method to clearly and easily identify the pathway taken by only those emissions that arrive at a receptor at a particular time, by combining the standard gridded output from forward (i.e., concentrations) and backward (i.e., residence time) LPDM simulations, greatly simplifying similar analyses. The ability of the method to successfully determine the source-to-receptor pathway, restoring this Lagrangian information that is lost when the data are gridded, is proven by comparing the pathway determined from this method with the particle trajectories from both the forward and backward models. A sample analysis is also presented, demonstrating that this method is more accurate and easier to use than existing methods using standard LPDM products. Finally, we discuss potential future work that would be possible by combining the backward LPDM simulation with gridded data from other sources (e.g., chemical transport models) to obtain a Lagrangian sampling of the air that will eventually arrive at a receptor.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily aminoglycoside dosing: comparison of two methods and investigation of the optimal blood sampling strategy.

PURPOSE Therapeutic drug monitoring of patients receiving once daily aminoglycoside therapy can be performed using pharmacokinetic (PK) formulas or Bayesian calculations. While these methods produced comparable results, their performance has never been checked against full PK profiles. We performed a PK study in order to compare both methods and to determine the best time-points to estimate AUC0-24 and peak concentrations (C max). METHODS We obtained full PK profiles in 14 patients receiving a once daily aminoglycoside therapy. PK parameters were calculated with PKSolver using non-compartmental methods. The calculated PK parameters were then compared with parameters estimated using an algorithm based on two serum concentrations (two-point method) or the software TCIWorks (Bayesian method). RESULTS For tobramycin and gentamicin, AUC0-24 and C max could be reliably estimated using a first serum concentration obtained at 1 h and a second one between 8 and 10 h after start of the infusion. The two-point and the Bayesian method produced similar results. For amikacin, AUC0-24 could reliably be estimated by both methods. C max was underestimated by 10-20% by the two-point method and by up to 30% with a large variation by the Bayesian method. CONCLUSIONS The ideal time-points for therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily administered aminoglycosides are 1 h after start of a 30-min infusion for the first time-point and 8-10 h after start of the infusion for the second time-point. Duration of the infusion and accurate registration of the time-points of blood drawing are essential for obtaining precise predictions.

Simultaneous 3D object tracking and camera parameter estimation by Bayesian methods and transdimensional MCMC sampling

Multi-camera 3D tracking systems with overlapping cameras represent a powerful mean for scene analysis, as they potentially allow greater robustness than monocular systems and provide useful 3D information about object location and movement. However, their performance relies on accurately calibrated camera networks, which is not a realistic assumption in real surveillance environments. Here, we introduce a multi-camera system for tracking the 3D position of a varying number of objects and simultaneously refin-ing the calibration of the network of overlapping cameras. Therefore, we introduce a Bayesian framework that combines Particle Filtering for tracking with recursive Bayesian estimation methods by means of adapted transdimensional MCMC sampling. Addi-tionally, the system has been designed to work on simple motion detection masks, making it suitable for camera networks with low transmission capabilities. Tests show that our approach allows a successful performance even when starting from clearly inaccurate camera calibrations, which would ruin conventional approaches.

Development and validation of methods for sampling and analysis of workplace toxic substances /

Mode of access: Internet.

Tentative standard methods of sampling and testing highway materials, adopted by the American Association of State Highway Officials and approved by the Secretary of Agriculture for use in connection with federal-aid road construction. Issued May, 1924; rev. Sept. 1928.

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