Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

Construction of neural network-based prediction intervals for short-term electrical load forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is of great importance for control and scheduling of electrical power systems. The uncertainty of power systems increases due to the random nature of climate and the penetration of the renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in datasets. To quantify these potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly proposed method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied to develop PIs using NN models. The primary multi-objective problem is firstly transformed into a constrained single-objective problem. This new problem formulation is closer to the original problem and has fewer parameters than the cost function. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Two case studies from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia) historical load datasets are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Demonstrated results show that the proposed method can construct high quality PIs for load forecasting applications.

Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting

The complexity and level of uncertainty present in operation of power systems have significantly grown due to penetration of renewable resources. These complexities warrant the need for advanced methods for load forecasting and quantifying uncertainties associated with forecasts. The objective of this study is to develop a framework for probabilistic forecasting of electricity load demands. The proposed probabilistic framework allows the analyst to construct PIs (prediction intervals) for uncertainty quantification. A newly introduced method, called LUBE (lower upper bound estimation), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN (neural network) models. The primary problem for construction of intervals is firstly formulated as a constrained single-objective problem. The sharpness of PIs is treated as the key objective and their calibration is considered as the constraint. PSO (particle swarm optimization) enhanced by the mutation operator is then used to optimally tune NN parameters subject to constraints set on the quality of PIs. Historical load datasets from Singapore, Ottawa (Canada) and Texas (USA) are used to examine performance of the proposed PSO-based LUBE method. According to obtained results, the proposed probabilistic forecasting method generates well-calibrated and informative PIs. Furthermore, comparative results demonstrate that the proposed PI construction method greatly outperforms three widely used benchmark methods. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

A hybrid cuckoo search and variable neighborhood descent for single and multiobjective scheduling problems

Cuckoo search (CS) is a relatively new meta-heuristic that has proven its strength in solving continuous optimization problems. This papers applies cuckoo search to the class of sequencing problems by hybridizing it with a variable neighborhood descent local search for enhancing the quality of the obtained solutions. The Lévy flight operator proposed in the original CS is modified to address the discrete nature of scheduling problems. Two well-known problems are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid CS approach. The first is the NP-hard single objective problem of minimizing the weighted total tardiness time (Formula presented.) and the second is the multiobjective problem of minimizing the flowtime ¯ and the maximum tardiness Tmaxfor single machine (Formula presented.). For the first problem, computational results show that the hybrid CS is able to find the optimal solutions for all benchmark test instances with 40, 50, and 100 jobs and for most instances with 150, 200, 250, and 300 jobs. For the second problem, the hybrid CS generated solutions on and very close to the exact Pareto fronts of test instances with 10, 20, 30, and 40 jobs. In general, the results reveal that the hybrid CS is an adequate and robust method for tackling single and multiobjective scheduling problems.

Low cost MPPT controller for a photovoltaic-based microgrid

 Photovoltaic based microgrid have been increasingly investigated in recent years, ascribable to their fundamental advantages such as the infinite energy source, environmentally friendly aspect and low upkeep cost. However, in practice, they are still considered as an expensive and low output option of renewable energy resources. To extract the maximum possible power from the output of the PV system, a reliable maximum power point tracker (MPPT) is required. Numerous studies have been conducted to introduce the best MPPT techniques suitable for different types of PV systems. However, they are mostly able to track the MPP from the PV system when the output signals (Voltage and Current) of individual array are available. In this study, a meta-heuristic method, based on particle swarm optimization theory, is used to determine the actual MPP of PV system, including several PV arrays, by only single current sensor at the output terminal. The results of the proposed PSO based technique, for tracking the global MPP in a multidimensional search space, have been presented at the end of this paper.

A novel Physarum-Based ant colony system for solving the real-world traveling salesman problem

The solutions to Traveling Salesman Problem can be widely applied in many real-world problems. Ant colony optimization algorithms can provide an approximate solution to a Traveling Salesman Problem. However, most ant colony optimization algorithms suffer premature convergence and low convergence rate. With these observations in mind, a novel ant colony system is proposed, which employs the unique feature of critical tubes reserved in the Physaurm-inspired mathematical model. A series of experiments are conducted, which are consolidated by two realworld Traveling Salesman Problems. The experimental results show that the proposed new ant colony system outperforms classical ant colony system, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm in efficiency and robustness.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

Prediction interval estimation of electricity prices using PSO-tuned support vector machines

Uncertainty of the electricity prices makes the task of accurate forecasting quite difficult for the electricity market participants. Prediction intervals (PIs) are statistical tools which quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future electricity prices. Traditional approaches based on neural networks (NNs) generate PIs at the cost of high computational burden and doubtful assumptions about data distributions. In this work, we propose a novel technique that is not plagued with the above limitations and it generates high-quality PIs in a short time. The proposed method directly generates the lower and upper bounds of the future electricity prices using support vector machines (SVM). Optimal model parameters are obtained by the minimization of a modified PI-based objective function using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The efficiency of the proposed method is illustrated using data from Ontario, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection day-ahead and real-time markets.

A review on artificial intelligence based load demand forecasting techniques for smart grid and buildings

Electrical load forecasting plays a vital role in order to achieve the concept of next generation power system such as smart grid, efficient energy management and better power system planning. As a result, high forecast accuracy is required for multiple time horizons that are associated with regulation, dispatching, scheduling and unit commitment of power grid. Artificial Intelligence (AI) based techniques are being developed and deployed worldwide in on Varity of applications, because of its superior capability to handle the complex input and output relationship. This paper provides the comprehensive and systematic literature review of Artificial Intelligence based short term load forecasting techniques. The major objective of this study is to review, identify, evaluate and analyze the performance of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based load forecast models and research gaps. The accuracy of ANN based forecast model is found to be dependent on number of parameters such as forecast model architecture, input combination, activation functions and training algorithm of the network and other exogenous variables affecting on forecast model inputs. Published literature presented in this paper show the potential of AI techniques for effective load forecasting in order to achieve the concept of smart grid and buildings.

A new color space based on K-medoids clustering for fire detection

Pixel color has proven to be a useful and robust cue for detection of most objects of interest like fire. In this paper, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is proposed to detect fire pixels in the background of an image. The proposed algorithm is introduced by the combination of a computational search method based on a swarm intelligence technique and the Kemdoids clustering method in order to form a Fire-based Color Space (FCS), in fact, the new technique converts RGB color system to FCS through a 3*3 matrix. This algorithm consists of five main stages:(1) extracting fire and non-fire pixels manually from the original image. (2) using K-medoids clustering to find a Cost function to minimize the error value. (3) applying Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to search and find the best W components in order to minimize the fitness function. (4) reporting the best matrix including feature weights, and utilizing this matrix to convert the all original images in the database to the new color space. (5) using Otsu threshold technique to binarize the final images. As compared with some state-of-the-art techniques, the experimental results show the ability and efficiency of the new method to detect fire pixels in color images.

An efficient hybrid algorithm for fire flame detection

Proposing efficient methods for fire protection is becoming more and more important, because a small flame of fire may cause huge problems in social safety. In this paper, an effective fire flame detection method is investigated. This fire detection method includes four main stages: in the first step, a linear transformation is applied to convert red, green, and blue (RGB) color space through a 3∗3 matrix to a new color space. In the next step, fuzzy c-mean clustering method (FCM) is used to distinguish between fire flame and non-fire flame pixels. Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) is also utilized in the last step to decrease the error value measured by FCM after conversion. Finally, we apply Otsu threshold method to the new converted images to make a binary picture. Empirical results show the strength, accuracy and fast-response of the proposed algorithm in detecting fire flames in color images.

Estratégias de aplicações sequenciais e paralelas da metaheurística otimização por enxame de partículas ao problema do caixeiro viajante

Particle Swarm Optimization is a metaheuristic that arose in order to simulate the behavior of a number of birds in flight, with its random movement locally, but globally determined. This technique has been widely used to address non-liner continuous problems and yet little explored in discrete problems. This paper presents the operation of this metaheuristic, and propose strategies for implementation of optimization discret problems as form of execution parallel as sequential. The computational experiments were performed to instances of the TSP, selected in the library TSPLIB contenct to 3038 nodes, showing the improvement of performance of parallel methods for their sequential versions, in executation time and results

Análise e otimização de superfícies seletivas de Frequência utilizando redes neurais artificiais e algoritmos de otimização natural

The bidimensional periodic structures called frequency selective surfaces have been well investigated because of their filtering properties. Similar to the filters that work at the traditional radiofrequency band, such structures can behave as band-stop or pass-band filters, depending on the elements of the array (patch or aperture, respectively) and can be used for a variety of applications, such as: radomes, dichroic reflectors, waveguide filters, artificial magnetic conductors, microwave absorbers etc. To provide high-performance filtering properties at microwave bands, electromagnetic engineers have investigated various types of periodic structures: reconfigurable frequency selective screens, multilayered selective filters, as well as periodic arrays printed on anisotropic dielectric substrates and composed by fractal elements. In general, there is no closed form solution directly from a given desired frequency response to a corresponding device; thus, the analysis of its scattering characteristics requires the application of rigorous full-wave techniques. Besides that, due to the computational complexity of using a full-wave simulator to evaluate the frequency selective surface scattering variables, many electromagnetic engineers still use trial-and-error process until to achieve a given design criterion. As this procedure is very laborious and human dependent, optimization techniques are required to design practical periodic structures with desired filter specifications. Some authors have been employed neural networks and natural optimization algorithms, such as the genetic algorithms and the particle swarm optimization for the frequency selective surface design and optimization. This work has as objective the accomplishment of a rigorous study about the electromagnetic behavior of the periodic structures, enabling the design of efficient devices applied to microwave band. For this, artificial neural networks are used together with natural optimization techniques, allowing the accurate and efficient investigation of various types of frequency selective surfaces, in a simple and fast manner, becoming a powerful tool for the design and optimization of such structures

Otimização de superfícies seletivas de frequência com elementos pré-fractais utilizando rede neural MLP e algoritmos de busca populacional

This thesis describes design methodologies for frequency selective surfaces (FSSs) composed of periodic arrays of pre-fractals metallic patches on single-layer dielectrics (FR4, RT/duroid). Shapes presented by Sierpinski island and T fractal geometries are exploited to the simple design of efficient band-stop spatial filters with applications in the range of microwaves. Initial results are discussed in terms of the electromagnetic effect resulting from the variation of parameters such as, fractal iteration number (or fractal level), fractal iteration factor, and periodicity of FSS, depending on the used pre-fractal element (Sierpinski island or T fractal). The transmission properties of these proposed periodic arrays are investigated through simulations performed by Ansoft DesignerTM and Ansoft HFSSTM commercial softwares that run full-wave methods. To validate the employed methodology, FSS prototypes are selected for fabrication and measurement. The obtained results point to interesting features for FSS spatial filters: compactness, with high values of frequency compression factor; as well as stable frequency responses at oblique incidence of plane waves. This thesis also approaches, as it main focus, the application of an alternative electromagnetic (EM) optimization technique for analysis and synthesis of FSSs with fractal motifs. In application examples of this technique, Vicsek and Sierpinski pre-fractal elements are used in the optimal design of FSS structures. Based on computational intelligence tools, the proposed technique overcomes the high computational cost associated to the full-wave parametric analyzes. To this end, fast and accurate multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models are developed using different parameters as design input variables. These neural network models aim to calculate the cost function in the iterations of population-based search algorithms. Continuous genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and bees algorithm (BA) are used for FSSs optimization with specific resonant frequency and bandwidth. The performance of these algorithms is compared in terms of computational cost and numerical convergence. Consistent results can be verified by the excellent agreement obtained between simulations and measurements related to FSS prototypes built with a given fractal iteration

Técnicas de computação natural para segmentação de imagens médicas

Image segmentation is one of the image processing problems that deserves special attention from the scientific community. This work studies unsupervised methods to clustering and pattern recognition applicable to medical image segmentation. Natural Computing based methods have shown very attractive in such tasks and are studied here as a way to verify it's applicability in medical image segmentation. This work treats to implement the following methods: GKA (Genetic K-means Algorithm), GFCMA (Genetic FCM Algorithm), PSOKA (PSO and K-means based Clustering Algorithm) and PSOFCM (PSO and FCM based Clustering Algorithm). Besides, as a way to evaluate the results given by the algorithms, clustering validity indexes are used as quantitative measure. Visual and qualitative evaluations are realized also, mainly using data given by the BrainWeb brain simulator as ground truth