A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Describing Web Service Architectures through Design-by-Contract

Architectural description languages (ADLs) are used to specify a high-level, compositional view of a software application, specifying how a system is to be composed from coarse-grain components. ADLs usually come equipped with a formal dynamic semantics, facilitating specification and analysis of distributed and event-based systems. In this paper, we describe the TrustME, an ADL framework that provides both a process and a structural view of web service-based systems. We use Petri-net descriptions to give a dynamic view of business workflow for web service collaboration. We adapt the approach of Schmidt to define a form of Meyer's design-by-contract for configuring workflow architectures. This serves as a configuration-level means of constructing safer, more robust systems.

An Architectural Description Language for Enterprise Computing

Architectural description languages (ADLs) are used to specify high-level, compositional view of a software application. ADLs usually come equipped with a rigourous state-transition style semantics, facilitating specification and analysis of distributed and event-based systems. However, enterprise system architectures built upon newer middleware (implementations of Java’s EJB specification, or Microsoft’s COM+/ .NET) require additional expressive power from an ADL. The TrustME ADL is designed to meet this need. In this paper, we describe several aspects of TrustME that facilitate specification and anlysis of middleware-based architectures for the enterprise.

Trust-By-Contract: Modelling, Analysing and Predicting Behaviour in Software Architectures

Architecture description languages (ADLs) are used to specify high-level, compositional views of a software application. ADL research focuses on software composed of prefabricated parts, so-called software components. ADLs usually come equipped with rigorous state-transition style semantics, facilitating verification and analysis of specifications. Consequently, ADLs are well suited to configuring distributed and event-based systems. However, additional expressive power is required for the description of enterprise software architectures – in particular, those built upon newer middleware, such as implementations of Java’s EJB specification, or Microsoft’s COM+/.NET. The enterprise requires distributed software solutions that are scalable, business-oriented and mission-critical. We can make progress toward attaining these qualities at various stages of the software development process. In particular, progress at the architectural level can be leveraged through use of an ADL that incorporates trust and dependability analysis. Also, current industry approaches to enterprise development do not address several important architectural design issues. The TrustME ADL is designed to meet these requirements, through combining approaches to software architecture specification with rigorous design-by-contract ideas. In this paper, we focus on several aspects of TrustME that facilitate specification and analysis of middleware-based architectures for trusted enterprise computing systems.

Apoio e resistência popular à realização de megaeventos: algumas lições para o Brasil

Este artigo analisa os principais fatores que influenciam a percepção da população local em relação a megaeventos internacionais, buscando identificar possíveis ações que o Poder Público pode promover para aumentar o apoio e minimizar a resistência à realização desse tipo de evento. Com base no estudo de literatura teórica e empírica sobre o tema, avalia a experiência brasileira na preparação para a Copa do Mundo de 2014 e os Jogos Olímpicos de 2016, e busca retirar algumas lições para futuros megaeventos que venham a ocorrer no País, inclusive a Exposição Universal de 2020.

Gestão de risco de desastres naturais no Brasil

A presente pesquisa tinha como objetivo compreender como as organizações localizadas em áreas afetadas por desastres naturais atuam para mitigar o risco e qual o papel destas organizações durante o evento. A partir de uma análise documental, o estudo identificou os principais eventos acontecidos no Brasil durante o período de 2003 a 2013 e também as cadeias de suprimentos mais afetadas, bem como os players durante o desastre e os maiores impactos para as atividades econômicas. Os resultados não fornecem indícios que os desastres naturais são considerados na gestão de risco pelas empresas, apesar de serem continuamente afetadas por eles. O poder público, porém, tem aumentado sua preocupação com estes fenômenos

Estudo de estratégias de otimização para poços de petróleo com elevação por bombeio de cavidades progressivas

The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system

Uma abordagem comportamental para inserção de robôs em ambientes culturais

In this work, we propose methodologies and computer tools to insert robots in cultural environments. The basic idea is to have a robot in a real context (a cultural space) that can represent an user connected to the system through Internet (visitor avatar in the real space) and that the robot also have its representation in a Mixed Reality space (robot avatar in the virtual space). In this way, robot and avatar are not simply real and virtual objects. They play a more important role in the scenery, interfering in the process and taking decisions. In order to have this service running, we developed a module composed by a robot, communication tools and ways to provide integration of these with the virtual environment. As welI we implemented a set of behaviors with the purpose of controlling the robot in the real space. We studied available software and hardware tools for the robotics platform used in the experiments, as welI we developed test routines to determine their potentialities. Finally, we studied the behavior-based control model, we planned and implemented alI the necessary behaviors for the robot integration to the real and virtual cultural spaces. Several experiments were conducted, in order to validate the developed methodologies and tools

Acelerando algoritmos de baixo nível em visão robótica com hardware reconfigurável

A challenge that remains in the robotics field is how to make a robot to react in real time to visual stimulus. Traditional computer vision algorithms used to overcome this problem are still very expensive taking too long when using common computer processors. Very simple algorithms like image filtering or even mathematical morphology operations may take too long. Researchers have implemented image processing algorithms in high parallelism hardware devices in order to cut down the time spent in the algorithms processing, with good results. By using hardware implemented image processing techniques and a platform oriented system that uses the Nios II Processor we propose an approach that uses the hardware processing and event based programming to simplify the vision based systems while at the same time accelerating some parts of the used algorithms

Influência de fatores antinutricionais da leucena (Leucaena leucocephala e Leucaena cunningan) e do feijão guandu (Cajanus cajan) sobre o epitélio intestinal e o desempenho de frangos de corte

Um experimento foi conduzido para avaliar a influência de fatores antinutricionais de alguns alimentos sobre o epitélio intestinal e o desempenho de frangos de corte. Foram utilizados 480 pintos de um dia de idade, em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado com quatro tratamentos (A = ração testemunha à base de milho e soja; B = ração contendo Leucaena leucocephala - 6% [LL]; C = ração contendo Leucaena cunningan - 6% [LC] e D = ração contendo feijão guandu - Cajanus cajan - 20% [CC]), quatro repetições e 30 aves por unidade experimental. Houve redução de ganho de peso e aumento da conversão alimentar com a utilização de LL e LC, no período de 1a 21 e de 1a 42 dias de idade. Aos 21 dias de idade, observou-se aumento no tamanho dos vilos do jejuno e na relação vilo:cripta do jejuno e íleo, nas aves que receberam LC. Houve aumento significativo (P<0,05) das células caliciformes no duodeno e jejuno em aves de todos os tratamentos e apenas LL e LC aumentaram as células caliciformes do íleo. Aos 42 dias de idade, houve aumento no número de células caliciformes causado por CC no duodeno e por LL, LC e CC no íleo. O consumo de ração e a profundidade de cripta não foram influenciados. A alteração da morfologia da vilosidade do jejuno, bem como a alteração na relação vilo:cripta no período inicial, influenciou negativamente o ganho de peso e a conversão alimentar nos períodos inicial e total.

Estabilidade, desempenho e observação de estado de sistemas chaveados afins: aplicações aos conversores CC-CC

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Desempenho da tilápia-do-Nilo arraçoada com dietas contendo farinha de sangue bovino atomizado ou convencional

The study evaluated the performance and carcass composition index of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fed with diets containing increasing levels of spray-dried blood meal (SDBM) and vat-dried blood meal (VDBM) and formulated based on digestible amino acids. Two hundred and fifty-two fingerlings were distributed in a completely randomized design, in a (2 x 4) + 1 factorial model, two types of blood meal with four levels of each blood meal in the diet, and a control diet (without blood meal), with four replications. The treatments consisted of soybean meal-based control diet, with 34% digestible protein (DP) and 3,200 kcal of digestible energy kg-1 (DE), plus four diets formulated with SDBM and four diets with VDBM, containing 5, 10, 15 and 20% of each meal in feed, maintaining identical DP, DE, phosphorus, calcium, lysine, methionine, threonine and tryptophan levels as those of the control diet. The results show that it is possible to use up to 15% VDBM in diets of Nile tilapia (O. niloticus) between 5 to 150 g of body weight.

Despacho ótimo de potências ativa e reativa de sistema elétricos multi-áreas considerando restrições físicas, econômicas e ambientais =: Envronmentally constrained active-reactive optimal power flow-a compromising strategy for economic-emission dispatch and a multi-area paradigm

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Dynamic Routing in Translucent WDM Optical Networks

Translucent WDM optical networks use sparse placement of regenerators to overcome the impairments and wavelength contention introduced by fully transparent networks, and achieve a performance close to fully opaque networks with much less cost. Our previous study proved the feasibility of translucent networks using sparse regeneration technique. We addressed the placement of regenerators based on static schemes allowing only fixed number of regenerators at fixed locations. This paper furthers the study by proposing a suite of dynamical routing schemes. Dynamic allocation, advertisement and discovery of regeneration resources are proposed to support sharing transmitters and receivers between regeneration and access functions. This study follows the current trend in optical networking industry by utilizing extension of IP control protocols. Dynamic routing algorithms, aware of current regeneration resources and link states, are designed to smartly route the connection requests under quality constraints. A hierarchical network model, supported by the MPLS-based control plane, is also proposed to provide scalability. Experiments show that network performance is improved without placement of extra regenerators.

An Extreme Case of Plant-Insect Codiversification: Figs and Fig-Pollinating Wasps

It is thought that speciation in phytophagous insects is often due to colonization of novel host plants, because radiations of plant and insect lineages are typically asynchronous. Recent phylogenetic comparisons have supported this model of diversification for both insect herbivores and specialized pollinators. An exceptional case where contemporaneous plant-insect diversification might be expected is the obligate mutualism between fig trees (Ficus species, Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Hymenoptera). The ubiquity and ecological significance of this mutualism in tropical and subtropical ecosystems has long intrigued biologists, but the systematic challenge posed by >750 interacting species pairs has hindered progress toward understanding its evolutionary history. In particular, taxon sampling and analytical tools have been insufficient for large-scale cophylogenetic analyses. Here, we sampled nearly 200 interacting pairs of fig and wasp species from across the globe. Two supermatrices were assembled: on an average, wasps had sequences from 77% of 6 genes (5.6 kb), figs had sequences from 60% of 5 genes (5.5 kb), and overall 850 new DNA sequences were generated for this study. We also developed a new analytical tool, Jane 2, for event-based phylogenetic reconciliation analysis of very large data sets. Separate Bayesian phylogenetic analyses for figs and fig wasps under relaxed molecular clock assumptions indicate Cretaceous diversification of crown groups and contemporaneous divergence for nearly half of all fig and pollinator lineages. Event-based cophylogenetic analyses further support the codiversification hypothesis. Biogeographic analyses indicate that the present-day distribution of fig and pollinator lineages is consistent with a Eurasian origin and subsequent dispersal, rather than with Gondwanan vicariance. Overall, our findings indicate that the fig-pollinator mutualism represents an extreme case among plant-insect interactions of coordinated dispersal and long-term codiversification.