Le ricadute dei vincoli di bilancio europei sugli Enti territoriali. Nuove norme per la stabilità.

La disciplina del pareggio di bilancio è in continua evoluzione, soprattutto a fronte delle nuove esigenze finanziarie per contrastare la pandemia. Questo elaborato, studiando la governance economica strutturata dopo la crisi dei debiti, le derivanti scelte italiane in materia di costituzionalizzazione del pareggio di bilancio e le conseguenze sulle autonomie locali, dimostra come il sistema di gestione delle finanze pubbliche a livello comunitario si stia completando, generando un rapporto normativo ciclico tra il livello europeo e quello locale. Ne è emersa una conflittualità tra le Regioni e lo Stato, che è analizzata al fine di comprendere la giustiziabilità costituzionale del pareggio di bilancio, osservando le esigenze di bilanciamento tra l’equilibrio finanziario e la tutela dei diritti sociali. La Corte Costituzionale ha recentemente conferito, in via giurisprudenziale, alla Corte dei Conti la potestà di svolgere un controllo diretto di costituzionalità del rispetto dell’equilibrio di bilancio degli enti nazionali e territoriali. Particolare attenzione viene data, poi, a seguito degli effetti della pandemia da Covid-19 sui bilanci degli Stati. A fronte della crisi pandemica, per la prima volta dall’approvazione del TSCG, la Commissione ha attivato la clausola di salvaguardia generale per sospendere il Patto di Stabilità (c.d. escape clause). Questa clausola ha permesso ai Paesi di ricorrere agli scostamenti di bilancio. Viene infine analizzato il piano “Next Generation EU”, che centralizza i prestiti verso gli Stati membri nel bilancio dell’Unione ed attinge dal mercato dei capitali le risorse necessarie per finanziare un totale di 750 miliardi, attraverso l’emissione di obbligazioni “Eu Bills”. Per la prima volta nella storia, l’Unione, nelle parole della Commissione, agisce sui mercati come se fosse uno Stato. La portata straordinaria del NGEU, con l’emissione di titoli europei, porta ad una sostanziale mutualizzazione dei debiti ed appare come un passo fondamentale verso il completamento dell’UEM e di un sistema federale.

Determinantes do rating soberano

Dissertação de Mestrado, Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, 28 de Maio de 2015, Universidade dos Açores.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

Valuing Sovereign Default Risk - A Pricing Formula and its Empirical Results for the Mexican External Debt.

Rapport de recherche

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) y Collateral Debt Obligation (CDO) derivados financieros responsables de la crisis sub-prime de 2008 en Estados Unidos y una guía para el desarrollo del mercado de derivados exóticos en Colombia

La crisis financiera hipotecaria de 2008 en la que se declaró en quiebra el banco de inversión Lehman Brothers, se desarrolló en un ambiente que contemplaba apalancamientos financieros excesivos y el uso de derivados financieros de crédito innovadores. Razón por la cual, a partir del estudio de caso de quiebra de este banco de inversión y el análisis de las causas y consecuencias del ambiente desregulatorio que surgió en Estados Unidos desde la década de los 30 hasta el 2000, se orienta la investigación a indagar sobre lo que sucede en términos regulatorios y empresariales en el mercado de valores colombiano y así lograr definir objetivos que permitan el crecimiento del mercado de derivados exóticos en Colombia bajo un marco de responsabilidad financiera y ética empresarial.

Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. CEPS Working Document No. 366, 22 June 2012

This paper tests the hypothesis that government bond markets in the eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) in the eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal space variables, and was the result of negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the eurozone into bad equilibria. We also find evidence that after years of neglecting high government debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries.

An agenda for the European Council: feasible steps to bring the eurozone back from the precipice. CEPS Policy Brief No. 274, 20 June 2012

In the run-up to the emergency European Council meeting at the end of June, Stefano Micossi outlines in this Policy Brief the main elements of a realistic and yet incisive policy package, capable of reassuring financial markets and a bewildered public opinion. It is more than Germany has been willing to accept so far but much less than many of the demands it will confront at the Council meeting. More importantly, it only requires a minimum of additional disbursements by the member states, while strengthening risk-sharing for sovereign and banking risks.

Sovereignty, exchange rate and the Euro crisis

This paper presents an interpretation of the European crisis based on the balance of payments imbalances within the Eurozone and highlighting the role of the “internal” real exchange rates as a primary cause of the crisis. It explores the structural contradictions that turn the Euro into a “foreign currency” for each individual Eurozone country. These contradictions imply the inability of national central banks to monetize the public and private debts, which makes the Euro crisis a sovereign crisis similar to those typical of emerging countries, but whose solution presents additional obstacles.

Another view of the Latin American crisis: domestic debt

Includes bibliography

The burden of debt and the crisis: is it time for a unilateral solution?

Includes bibliography

External debt and crisis: the decline of the orthodox procedures

Includes bibliography

Problema de la deuda: gestación, desarrollo, crisis y perspectiva = Problem of the external debt: gestation, development, crisis and prospects = Le probleme de la dette: gestation, evolution, crise et perspectives

Incluye Bibliografía

Problema de la deuda: gestación, desarrollo, crisis y perspectiva = Problem of the external debt: gestation, development, crisis and prospects

Incluye Bibliografía

Crisis, external debt, macroeconomic policies and their relation to the environment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography