Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

A review of mycotoxins in food and feed products in Portugal and estimation of probable daily intakes

Mycotoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by filamentous fungi that occur naturally in agricultural commodities worldwide. Aflatoxins, ochratoxin A, patulin, fumonisins, zearalenone, trichothecenes and ergot alkaloids are presently the most important for food and feed safety. These compounds are produced by several species that belong to the Aspergillus, Penicillium, Fusarium and Claviceps genera and can be carcinogenic, mutagenic, teratogenic, cytotoxic, neurotoxic, nephrotoxic, estrogenic and immunosuppressant. Human and animal exposure to mycotoxins is generally assessed by taking into account data on the occurrence of mycotoxins in food and feed as well as data on the consumption patterns of the concerned population. This evaluation is crucial to support measures to reduce consumer exposure to mycotoxins. This work reviews the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in Portuguese food and feed to provide a global overview of this issue in Portugal. With the information collected, the exposure of the Portuguese population to those mycotoxins is assessed, and the estimated dietary intakes are presented.

Promising blood-derived biomarkers for estimation of the postmortem interval

A precise estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) is one of the most important topics in forensic pathology. However, the PMI estimation is based mainly on the visual observation of cadaverous pheno- mena (e.g. algor, livor and rigor mortis) and on alternative methods such as thanatochemistry that remain relatively imprecise. The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate the kinetic alterations of several bio- chemical parameters (i.e. proteins, enzymes, substrates, electrolytes and lipids) during putrefaction of human blood. For this purpose, we performed kinetic biochemical analysis during a 264 hour period. The results showed a significant linear correlation between total and direct bilirubin, urea, uric acid, transferrin, immunoglobulin M (IgM), creatine kinase (CK), aspartate transaminase (AST), calcium and iron with the time of blood putrefaction. These parameters allowed us to develop two mathematical models that may have predictive values and become important complementary tools of traditional methods to achieve a more accurate PMI estimation

Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Estimation of nonparametric probability density functions with applications to automatic speech recognition

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Diss., 2007

New solutions for an old challenge : chances and limitations of optical, non-invasive acquisition and digital processing techniques for the age estimation of latent fingerprints

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2014

Doses and methods of distribution of potassium chloride on soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) in a red latosol, affecting soil salinity, grain production and chemical composition of leaves

The present work deal t wi th an experiment under field conditions and a laboratory test of soil incubation the objectives were as follows: a. to study effects on soybean grain product ion and leaf composition of increasing doses of potassium chloride applied into the soil through two methods of distribution; b. to observe chemical modifications in the soils incubated with increasing doses of potassium chloride; and, c. to correlate field effects with chemical alterations observed in the incubation test, The field experiment was carried out in a Red Latosol (Haplustox) with soybean cultivar UFV - 1. Potassium chloride was distributed through two methods: banded (5 cm below and 5 cm aside of the seed line) and broadcasted and plowed-down. Doses used were: 0; 50; 100 and 200 kg/ha of K2O. Foliar samples were taken at flowering stage. Incubation test were made in plastic bags with 2 kg of air dried fine soil, taken from the arable layer of the field experiment, with the following doses of KC1 p,a. : 0; 50; 100; 200; 400; 800; 1,600; 3.200; 6,400 and 12,800 kg/ha of K(2)0. In the conditions observed during the present work, results allowed the following conclusions: A response by soybean grain production for doses of potassium chloride, applied in both ways, banded or broadcasted, was not observed. Leaf analysis did not show treatment influence over the leaf contents for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, and CI, Potassium chloride salinity effects in both methods of distribution for all the tested closes were not observed.

Parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models: an empirical application to the female labour force in Portugal

This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Since conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. Monte Carlo results show that the estimator performs well in comparison to other estimators that have been proposed for estimation of general DLV models.

Molecular estimation of dispersal for ecology and population genetics

The dispersal process, by which individuals or other dispersing agents such as gametes or seeds move from birthplace to a new settlement locality, has important consequences for the dynamics of genes, individuals, and species. Many of the questions addressed by ecology and evolutionary biology require a good understanding of species' dispersal patterns. Much effort has thus been devoted to overcoming the difficulties associated with dispersal measurement. In this context, genetic tools have long been the focus of intensive research, providing a great variety of potential solutions to measuring dispersal. This methodological diversity is reviewed here to help (molecular) ecologists find their way toward dispersal inference and interpretation and to stimulate further developments.

The Estimation of Technical Efficiency Effects Models with an Example Applied to the Thai Manufacturing Sector

This paper does two things. First, it presents alternative approaches to the standard methods of estimating productive efficiency using a production function. It favours a parametric approach (viz. the stochastic production frontier approach) over a nonparametric approach (e.g. data envelopment analysis); and, further, one that provides a statistical explanation of efficiency, as well as an estimate of its magnitude. Second, it illustrates the favoured approach (i.e. the ‘single stage procedure’) with estimates of two models of explained inefficiency, using data from the Thai manufacturing sector, after the crisis of 1997. Technical efficiency is modelled as being dependent on capital investment in three major areas (viz. land, machinery and office appliances) where land is intended to proxy the effects of unproductive, speculative capital investment; and both machinery and office appliances are intended to proxy the effects of productive, non-speculative capital investment. The estimates from these models cast new light on the five-year long, post-1997 crisis period in Thailand, suggesting a structural shift from relatively labour intensive to relatively capital intensive production in manufactures from 1998 to 2002.

Estimation of the Spatial Weights Matrix under Structural Constraints

While estimates of models with spatial interaction are very sensitive to the choice of spatial weights, considerable uncertainty surrounds de nition of spatial weights in most studies with cross-section dependence. We show that, in the spatial error model the spatial weights matrix is only partially identi ed, and is fully identifi ed under the structural constraint of symmetry. For the spatial error model, we propose a new methodology for estimation of spatial weights under the assumption of symmetric spatial weights, with extensions to other important spatial models. The methodology is applied to regional housing markets in the UK, providing an estimated spatial weights matrix that generates several new hypotheses about the economic and socio-cultural drivers of spatial di¤usion in housing demand.

Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.