Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Climate Change and Health: A platform for action

This paper provides an introduction to the links between climate change and health and aims to inform policy-makers, politicians and the public of the benefits for health from reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)* emissions from food production, transport, energy, and waste. It also highlights the importance of action by the health sector.It presents a platform for action which demonstrates that creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

IPH Submission to Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government Climate Change Response Bill 2010

The main purpose of the Clmate Change Bill is to provide for the adoption of a national policy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; to support this through the making of mitigation and adaptation action plans; and to make provision for emission reduction targets to support the objective of transition to a low carbon, climate resilient and environmentally sustainable economy.The remit of the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is to promote cooperation for public health between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the areas of research and information, capacity building and policy advice. Our approach is to support Departments of Health and their agencies in both jurisdictions, and maximise the benefits of all-island cooperation to achieve practical benefits for people in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.IPH has a keen interest in the effects of climate change on health. In September 2010 the IPH published a paper – Climate Change and Health: A platform for action - to inform policy-makers and the public about the health benefits in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper followed a seminar with international speakers, opened by Minister Gormley, on the same topic in February 2010. 

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

Groundwater dating and past climate reconstruction

In the past decade aquifers have increasingly become palaeoclimatic archives in their own right alongside ice cores, sediments and other proxy records. The main tool for this task has been the noble gas palaeo-thermometer in combination with quantitative groundwater dating using radionuclides. Noblegas radionuclides play a unique role as tracers in environmental studies due to their chemical inertness and low concentration making them ideal tracers. The same properties on the other hand make them difficult to measure on natural concentration levels. Therefore for decades low level counting (LLC) was the only method for detecting radioisotopes of argon and krypton at an atmospheric level. In recent times and with the increase of interest and potential applications the analytical efforts with novel detection methods have been intensified. In the talk noble gas groundwater dating techniques over times scales from decades to millions of years are discussed in relation to noble gas palaeo records at different locations in Europe and elsewhere.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Managing Climate Insecurity by Ensuring Continuous Capital Accumulation : 'Climate Refugees' and 'Climate Migrants'

Numerous recent reports by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academics and international organisations have focused on so-called 'climate refugees'. This article examines the turn from a discourse of 'climate refugees', in which organisations perceive migration as a failure of both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, to one of 'climate migration', in which organisations promote migration as a strategy of adaptation. Its focus is the promotion of climate migration management, and it explores the trend of these discourses through two sections. First, it provides an empirical account of the two discourses, emphasising the differentiation between them. It then focuses on the discourse of climate migration, its origins, extent and content, and the associated practices of 'migration management'. The second part argues that the turn to the promotion of 'climate migration' should be understood as a way to manage the insecurity created by climate change. However, international organisations enacts this management within the forms of neoliberal capitalism, including the framework of governance. Therefore, the promotion of 'climate migration' as a strategy of adaptation to climate change is located within the tendencies of neoliberalism and the reconfiguration of southern states' sovereignty through governance.

Obesity - an acknowledged public health challenge

As we face a difficult economic climate, in which inequalities may worsen, the PHA faces many challenges in its efforts to improve the health of the population. One such challenge is the issue of obesity. Recently, in the Draft Programme for Government and, again today, in anticipation of the publication of the Consultation on the Review of Health and Social Care Services in Northern Ireland, the specific issue of obesity has been highlighted in the media.The PHA is committed to playing a lead role in tackling this major health issue and has been systematically examining the evidence of best practice and effectiveness to ensure that investment and working in partnership will bring clear benefits. A welcome consequence of any success would be a reduction in the impact of the physical, and emotional costs of obesity related ill-health to individuals - and the financial costs to an overstretched healthcare system.A multi-facetted approach to tackling obesity is required for Northern Ireland. This will mean working across government departments, looking at relevant legislation, taxation, food standards and labelling, as well as supporting a raft of programmes within education, workplace, and at the local community level."The prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen dramatically in recent years in Northern Ireland and is now the norm to be overweight, rather than the exception. The Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey (2010-11) indicated that 36% of adults are overweight and a further 23% are obese; this means that approximately 3 in 5 adults in Northern Ireland carry excess weight. A similar proportion of males and females were obese (23%) however males were more likely to be overweight (44%) than females (30%).Data from the Northern Ireland Health and Wellbeing Survey (2010-11) reported that 27% of children aged 2-15 years are obese or overweight. The findings presented here are based on the guidelines put forward by the International Obesity Task Force. Using this approach, 8% of children were assessed as obese, with similar results for boys (8%) and girls (9%). Obesity has serious implications for health and wellbeing and is associated with an increased risk of heart disease and stroke, type 2 diabetes, some cancers, respiratory problems and joint pain.Evidence indicates that being obese can reduce life expectancy by up to 9 years; and it can impact on emotional and psychological well-being and self-esteem, especially among young people.Obesity also impacts on wider society through economic costs, loss of productivity and increased demands on our health and social care system. It is estimated that obesity in Northern Ireland is resulting in 260,000 working days lost each year with a cost to the local economy of £500 million.The good news is that the intentional loss of significant weight (approx 10kg) in overweight and obese adults has been shown to confer significant health benefits, decreased morbidity and may also reduce obesity-related mortality.Key programmes and interventions are undertaken by the PHA in order to prevent and reduce overweight and obesity. The programmes/interventions are supported by significant ongoing work at local level. Examples include:the promotion of breastfeeding; local programmes to increase awareness of good nutrition and develop cooking skills, for example 'Cook It!'; promotion of more active lifestyles, for example, Walking for Health' and 'Teenage Kicks'; development of community allotment schemes; programmes for primary school children, for example Skip2bfit and Eat, Taste and Grow; and sports and other recreation, for example 'Active Belfast'. The PHA's multi media campaign 'It all adds up!' to encourage children to become more active and understand the importance of keeping fit, in a fun and exciting way, ran until October 2011. It encouraged parents and carers to go to the website www.getalifegetactive.com and download the PHA logbook It all adds up! to plan activities as a family. The logbook helped children and parents plan and keep track of their participation in physical activity at school, home and in the community. PHA is currently developing a public information campaign and other supportive work to increase public awareness of obesity as well as to provide advice and support for those who want to make real changes. The campaign development is well underway and is anticipated for launch in late Spring 2012. Like many common health problems, people living in disadvantaged circumstances suffer most and the PHA is committed to tackling this aspect of health inequality. The good news is that even a modest weight loss, of 1-1 Â_ stones, can help to reduce the risk of many of the health problems resulting from being overweight or obese. Information on losing weight through healthier eating and being more active can be found on the PHA websites - www.enjoyhealthyeating.info and www.getalifegetactive.com . These websites provide help and advice for anyone who wants to improve their eating habits and fitness levels, by making small, sustainable, healthy changes to their lifestyle. The PHA leaflet, Small changes, big benefits is also available to download from the PHA website, 'Publications' section.

Quality Standards for Services Promoting Mental and Emotional Wellbeing and Suicide Prevention

These standards will apply to all organisations providing mental & emotional wellbeing and suicide prevention services which are funded by the PHA.

Promoting young people's social and emotional wellbeing in secondary education.

This guidance is for all those who have a responsibility for the social and emotional wellbeing of young people in secondary education. This includes teachers, support staff, governors and professionals with public health as part of their remit working in education (including the independent sector), local authorities, the NHS and the wider public, voluntary and community sectors. It focuses on interventions to support all young people aged 11-19 who attend any education establishment. Social and emotional wellbeing includes being happy, confident and in control, with the ability to solve and cope with problems and have good relationships with other people. The six recommendations cover: strategy, the key principles and conditions, working in partnership with parents, families and young people, the curriculum, and training and professional development. They include: â?¢ Secondary education establishments should have access to the specialist skills, advice and support they require. â?¢ Practitioners should have the knowledge, understanding and skills they need to develop young peopleâ?Ts social and emotional wellbeing. â?¢ Secondary education establishments should provide a safe environment which nurtures and encourages young peopleâ?Ts sense of self-worth, reduces the threat of bullying and violence and promotes positive behaviour. â?¢ Social and emotional skills education should be tailored to the developmental needs of young people.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.