Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

Background Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them. Methods The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses. Results Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD. Conclusion Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.

Durability Assessment of Polymer Trileaflet Heart Valves

The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.

Preservation of myocardial beta-adrenergic receptor signaling delays the development of heart failure after myocardial infarction.

When the heart fails, there is often a constellation of biochemical alterations of the beta-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) signaling system, leading to the loss of cardiac inotropic reserve. betaAR down-regulation and functional uncoupling are mediated through enhanced activity of the betaAR kinase (betaARK1), the expression of which is increased in ischemic and failing myocardium. These changes are widely viewed as representing an adaptive mechanism, which protects the heart against chronic activation. In this study, we demonstrate, using in vivo intracoronary adenoviral-mediated gene delivery of a peptide inhibitor of betaARK1 (betaARKct), that the desensitization and down-regulation of betaARs seen in the failing heart may actually be maladaptive. In a rabbit model of heart failure induced by myocardial infarction, which recapitulates the biochemical betaAR abnormalities seen in human heart failure, delivery of the betaARKct transgene at the time of myocardial infarction prevents the rise in betaARK1 activity and expression and thereby maintains betaAR density and signaling at normal levels. Rather than leading to deleterious effects, cardiac function is improved, and the development of heart failure is delayed. These results appear to challenge the notion that dampening of betaAR signaling in the failing heart is protective, and they may lead to novel therapeutic strategies to treat heart disease via inhibition of betaARK1 and preservation of myocardial betaAR function.

Into the Bends of Time and Musical Forces in Jazz: Group Interaction and Double-time in “My Foolish Heart” as performed by the Bill Evans Trio with Scott LaFaro and Paul Motian.

Into the Bends of Time is a 40-minute work in seven movements for a large chamber orchestra with electronics, utilizing real-time computer-assisted processing of music performed by live musicians. The piece explores various combinations of interactive relationships between players and electronics, ranging from relatively basic processing effects to musical gestures achieved through stages of computer analysis, in which resulting sounds are crafted according to parameters of the incoming musical material. Additionally, some elements of interaction are multi-dimensional, in that they rely on the participation of two or more performers fulfilling distinct roles in the interactive process with the computer in order to generate musical material. Through processes of controlled randomness, several electronic effects induce elements of chance into their realization so that no two performances of this work are exactly alike. The piece gets its name from the notion that real-time computer-assisted processing, in which sound pressure waves are transduced into electrical energy, converted to digital data, artfully modified, converted back into electrical energy and transduced into sound waves, represents a “bending” of time.

The Bill Evans Trio featuring bassist Scott LaFaro and drummer Paul Motian is widely regarded as one of the most important and influential piano trios in the history of jazz, lauded for its unparalleled level of group interaction. Most analyses of Bill Evans’ recordings, however, focus on his playing alone and fail to take group interaction into account. This paper examines one performance in particular, of Victor Young’s “My Foolish Heart” as recorded in a live performance by the Bill Evans Trio in 1961. In Part One, I discuss Steve Larson’s theory of musical forces (expanded by Robert S. Hatten) and its applicability to jazz performance. I examine other recordings of ballads by this same trio in order to draw observations about normative ballad performance practice. I discuss meter and phrase structure and show how the relationship between the two is fixed in a formal structure of repeated choruses. I then develop a model of perpetual motion based on the musical forces inherent in this structure. In Part Two, I offer a full transcription and close analysis of “My Foolish Heart,” showing how elements of group interaction work with and against the musical forces inherent in the model of perpetual motion to achieve an unconventional, dynamic use of double-time. I explore the concept of a unified agential persona and discuss its role in imparting the song’s inherent rhetorical tension to the instrumental musical discourse.

Serum Amyloid P-Component Prevents Cardiac Remodeling in Hypertensive Heart Disease

The potential for serum amyloid P-component (SAP) to prevent cardiac remodeling and identify worsening diastolic dysfunction (DD) was investigated. The anti-fibrotic potential of SAP was tested in an animal model of hypertensive heart disease (spontaneously hypertensive rats treated with SAP [SHR - SAP] × 12 weeks). Biomarker analysis included a prospective study of 60 patients with asymptomatic progressive DD. Compared with vehicle-treated Wistar-Kyoto rats (WKY-V), the vehicle-treated SHRs (SHR-V) exhibited significant increases in left ventricular mass, perivascular collagen, cardiomyocyte size, and macrophage infiltration. SAP administration was associated with significantly lower left ventricular mass (p < 0.01), perivascular collagen (p < 0.01), and cardiomyocyte size (p < 0.01). Macrophage infiltration was significantly attenuated in the SHR-SAP group. Biomarker analysis showed significant decreases in SAP concentration over time in patients with progressive DD (p < 0.05). Our results indicate that SAP prevents cardiac remodeling by inhibiting recruitment of pro-fibrotic macrophages and that depleted SAP levels identify patients with advancing DD suggesting a role for SAP therapy.

Associates of an elevated natriuretic peptide level in stable heart failure patients:implications for targeted management

BACKGROUND: Persistently elevated natriuretic peptide (NP) levels in heart failure (HF) patients are associated with impaired prognosis. Recent work suggests that NP-guided therapy can improve outcome, but the mechanisms behind an elevated BNP remain unclear. Among the potential stimuli for NP in clinically stable patients are persistent occult fluid overload, wall stress, inflammation, fibrosis, and ischemia. The purpose of this study was to identify associates of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in a stable HF population.

METHODS: In a prospective observational study of 179 stable HF patients, the association between BNP and markers of collagen metabolism, inflammation, and Doppler-echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial volume index (LAVI), and E/e prime (E/e') was measured.

RESULTS: Univariable associates of elevated BNP were age, LVEF, LAVI, E/e', creatinine, and markers of collagen turnover. In a multiple linear regression model, age, creatinine, and LVEF remained significant associates of BNP. E/e' and markers of collagen turnover had a persistent impact on BNP independent of these covariates.

CONCLUSION: Multiple variables are associated with persistently elevated BNP levels in stable HF patients. Clarification of the relative importance of NP stimuli may help refine NP-guided therapy, potentially improving outcome for this at-risk population.

Murine Models of Diastolic Dysfunction and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction leads to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, an increasingly prevalent condition largely driven by modern day lifestyle risk factors. As heart failure with preserved ejection fraction accounts for almost one-half of all patients with heart failure, appropriate nonhuman animal models are required to improve our understanding of the pathophysiology of this syndrome and to provide a platform for preclinical investigation of potential therapies. Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes are major risk factors for diastolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This review focuses on murine models reflecting this disease continuum driven by the aforementioned common risk factors. We describe various models of diastolic dysfunction and highlight models of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction reported in the literature. Strengths and weaknesses of the different models are discussed to provide an aid to translational scientists when selecting an appropriate model. We also bring attention to the fact that heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is difficult to diagnose in animal models and that, therefore, there is a paucity of well described animal models of this increasingly important condition.

Nonparametric Evaluation of Quantitative Traits in Population-Based Association Studies when the Genetic Model is Unknown

Statistical association between a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype and a quantitative trait in genome-wide association studies is usually assessed using a linear regression model, or, in the case of non-normally distributed trait values, using the Kruskal-Wallis test. While linear regression models assume an additive mode of inheritance via equi-distant genotype scores, Kruskal-Wallis test merely tests global differences in trait values associated with the three genotype groups. Both approaches thus exhibit suboptimal power when the underlying inheritance mode is dominant or recessive. Furthermore, these tests do not perform well in the common situations when only a few trait values are available in a rare genotype category (disbalance), or when the values associated with the three genotype categories exhibit unequal variance (variance heterogeneity). We propose a maximum test based on Marcus-type multiple contrast test for relative effect sizes. This test allows model-specific testing of either dominant, additive or recessive mode of inheritance, and it is robust against variance heterogeneity. We show how to obtain mode-specific simultaneous confidence intervals for the relative effect sizes to aid in interpreting the biological relevance of the results. Further, we discuss the use of a related all-pairwise comparisons contrast test with range preserving confidence intervals as an alternative to Kruskal-Wallis heterogeneity test. We applied the proposed maximum test to the Bogalusa Heart Study dataset, and gained a remarkable increase in the power to detect association, particularly for rare genotypes. Our simulation study also demonstrated that the proposed non-parametric tests control family-wise error rate in the presence of non-normality and variance heterogeneity contrary to the standard parametric approaches. We provide a publicly available R library nparcomp that can be used to estimate simultaneous confidence intervals or compatible multiplicity-adjusted p-values associated with the proposed maximum test.

THE INFLUENCE OF MOTIVATION ON EMOTION REGULATION AND MOTOR PERFORMANCE: EXAMINATION OF A NEURO-AFFECTIVE MODEL

Mental stress is known to disrupt the execution of motor performance and can lead to decrements in the quality of performance, however, individuals have shown significant differences regarding how fast and well they can perform a skilled task according to how well they can manage stress and emotion. The purpose of this study was to advance our understanding of how the brain modulates emotional reactivity under different motivational states to achieve differential performance in a target shooting task that requires precision visuomotor coordination. In order to study the interactions in emotion regulatory brain areas (i.e. the ventral striatum, amygdala, prefrontal cortex) and the autonomic nervous system, reward and punishment interventions were employed and the resulting behavioral and physiological responses contrasted to observe the changes in shooting performance (i.e. shooting accuracy and stability of aim) and neuro-cognitive processes (i.e. cognitive load and reserve) during the shooting task. Thirty-five participants, aged 18 to 38 years, from the Reserve Officers’ Training Corp (ROTC) at the University of Maryland were recruited to take 30 shots at a bullseye target in three different experimental conditions. In the reward condition, $1 was added to their total balance for every 10-point shot. In the punishment condition, $1 was deducted from their total balance if they did not hit the 10-point area. In the neutral condition, no money was added or deducted from their total balance. When in the reward condition, which was reportedly most enjoyable and least stressful of the conditions, heart rate variability was found to be positively related to shooting scores, inversely related to variability in shooting performance and positively related to alpha power (i.e. less activation) in the left temporal region. In the punishment (and most stressful) condition, an increase in sympathetic response (i.e. increased LF/HF ratio) was positively related to jerking movements as well as variability of placement (on the target) in the shots taken. This, coupled with error monitoring activity in the anterior cingulate cortex, suggests evaluation of self-efficacy might be driving arousal regulation, thus affecting shooting performance. Better performers showed variable, increasing high-alpha power in the temporal region during the aiming period towards taking the shot which could indicate an adaptive strategy of engagement. They also showed lower coherence during hit shots than missed shots which was coupled with reduced jerking movements and better precision and accuracy. Frontal asymmetry measures revealed possible influence of the prefrontal lobe in driving this effect in reward and neutral conditions. The possible interactions, reasons behind these findings and implications are discussed.

Cardioprotective effects of Dan-Yang-Fu-Xin decoction on chronic heart failure in rats

Purpose: To evaluate the cardioprotective effects and possible mechanisms of Dan-Yang-Fu-Xin decoction (DYFX) in a rat chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A CHF rat model induced by ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery was used to investigate the cardioprotective effects of DYFX. After intragastric administration for 8 weeks, several functional cardiac indices, including fractional shortening (FS), ejection fraction (EF), heart rate (HR) and cardiac output (CO) were assessed by ultrasound examination. Subsequently, inflammatory markers, viz, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), myocardial enzymes, namely, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK), were also assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Intragastric administration of DYFX (200, 400 and 600 mg/kg) significantly reversed the decrease in body weight and increase in cardiac weight (p < 0.05) induced by CHF. Treatment with DYFX also significantly reversed EF, FS, HR, and CO changes in CHF rats. In addition, DYFX inhibited the two inflammatory cytokines (TNF-α and IL-6) and myocardial enzymes (CK and LDH), suggesting that these effects may include the mechanisms of cardioprotectiion involved in attenuation of CHF. Conclusion: DYFX possesses cardioprotective effects involving CHF. The protective mechanisms may include the suppression of expression of inflammatory mediators and myocardial enzymes.

Application of the UK Foresight Obesity Model in Ireland: The Health and Economic Consequences of Projected Obesity Trends in Ireland

Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.

The role of heart rate as a risk marker for predicting adverse outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.