Using secondary knowledge to support decision tree classification of retrospective clinical data

Retrospective clinical data presents many challenges for data mining and machine learning. The transcription of patient records from paper charts and subsequent manipulation of data often results in high volumes of noise as well as a loss of other important information. In addition, such datasets often fail to represent expert medical knowledge and reasoning in any explicit manner. In this research we describe applying data mining methods to retrospective clinical data to build a prediction model for asthma exacerbation severity for pediatric patients in the emergency department. Difficulties in building such a model forced us to investigate alternative strategies for analyzing and processing retrospective data. This paper describes this process together with an approach to mining retrospective clinical data by incorporating formalized external expert knowledge (secondary knowledge sources) into the classification task. This knowledge is used to partition the data into a number of coherent sets, where each set is explicitly described in terms of the secondary knowledge source. Instances from each set are then classified in a manner appropriate for the characteristics of the particular set. We present our methodology and outline a set of experiential results that demonstrate some advantages and some limitations of our approach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Fatigue behaviour of C-Mn-B steels:effects of heat treatment prestrain and residual stress

The fatigue-crack propagation and threshold behaviour of a C-Mn steel containing boron has been investigated at a range of strength levels suitable for mining chain applications. The heat-treatment variables examined include two austenitizing temperatures (900 degree C and 1250 degree C) and a range of tempering treatments from the as-quenched condition to tempering at 400 degree C. In mining applications the haulage chains undergo a 'calibration' process which has the effect of imposing a tensile prestrain on the chain links before they go into service. Prestrain is shown to reduce threshold values in these steels and this behaviour is related to its effects on the residual stress distribution in the test specimens.

O agrominerador familiar “Por detrás da Serra” de Parelhas, Seridó do Rio Grande do Norte

Unfavorable climatic conditions to family farming associated to the legal difficulty of retirement for workers who work exclusively in mining are indications provided by previous papers on this topic and guiding of such joint activities in a group that we have decided to call “agromineradores”, who are located “Behind de mountain” of Princess at Parelhas, Seridó do RN. However, in addition to these aspects, the research provides comprehensive analysis and thorough examination of other factors that link these families to such labor association. The theories of Habitus, field and trajectory from Pierre Bourdieu as well as the concept of institutions from Geoffrey Hodgson are central in this paper to explain the inclusion of these part-time farmers in an institutional environment shaped by social structures that influence in the choices of individual and collective behavior and leading to the relevance of the power structures within and outside the family, along with the role of public policies directed to family farmers and miners. The data analyzed showed that there is a crystallized structure that manifests themselves for years in this field, proving the link that exists between these agents and institutions that surround them in the composition of behaviors and routinizing of practices.

Les interconnexions électriques entre la France et ses voisins européens depuis 1970 : un vecteur méconnu de l'intégration européenne

Les ouvrages de transport d’électricité ont d’abord été pensés un par un, reliant un excédent de production à un besoin de consommation. Ils ont ainsi parfois très naturellement et dès l’origine traversé les frontières des États pour répondre à leur raison d’être. Les secteurs électriques se structurant fortement lorsque le virage électrique fut pris, les interconnexions entre pays furent conçues par les techniciens comme une mesure élémentaire de sûreté et d’équilibre de ce produit atypique qu’est l’électricité. En France plus particulièrement, lorsque la production électronucléaire se développa à partir des années 1970, ces interconnexions devinrent petit à petit sources de revenus pour l’entreprise nationale, et d’équilibre pour la balance commerciale nationale. L’intérêt grandissant porté au secteur électrique par les institutions européennes à la fin des années 1990 vient ébranler les acteurs économiques géographiques verticaux, et rebat les cartes des enjeux à adresser à une maille plus large que l’État nation. Dans ces transformations successives, les interconnexions aux frontières, et particulièrement aux frontières françaises, jouent ainsi un rôle tout à fait spécifique et de plus en plus structurant pour les économies ouvertes des pays européens. Les réseaux de transport électriques continuent ainsi une mutation entamée dans les années 1970 qui les a conduits de la condition de mal nécessaire à celle de vecteurs indispensables de transformation des économies européennes. L’objet de ce mémoire est d’illustrer la très grande capacité d’adaptation de ces organes industriels, économiques, sociétaux et politiques, dont on pourrait faussement penser qu’ils sont immobilisés par leur nature capitalistique, à travers les enjeux portés par les interconnexions aux frontières françaises. Les sources sont à la fois issues de données des opérateurs techniques, de la documentation – encore peu fréquente – sur ces sujets, ainsi que des statistiques officielles du ministère français. Cette capacité d’innovation et de développement de « couches de services » permet aujourd’hui aux grands réseaux de transport de traverser les époques et la variabilité des orientations de leurs environnements, durablement.

Session organiser/chair: The architecture of coal and other energies

Coal ignited the industrial revolution. An organic sedimentary rock that energized the globe, transforming cities, landscapes and societies for generations, the importance of ‘King Coal’ to the development and consolidation of modernity has been well-recognised. And yet, as a critical factor in the production of modern architecture, coal—as well as other forms of energy—has been mostly overlooked.

From Appalachia to Lanarkshire, from the pits of northern France, Belgium and the Ruhr valley, to the monumental opencast excavations of Russia, China, Africa and Australia, mining operations have altered the immediate social and physical landscapes of coal-rich areas. But in contrast to its own underground conditions of production, the winning of coal, especially in the twentieth-century, has produced conspicuously enlightened and humane approaches to architecture and urbanism. In the twentieth century, educational buildings, holiday camps, hospitals, swimming pools, convalescent homes and housing prevailed alongside model collieries in mining settlements and areas connected to them. In 1930s Britain, pit head baths—funded by a levy on each ton produced—were often built in the International Style. Many won praise for architectural merit, appearing in Nicholas Pevsner’s guides to the buildings of England alongside cathedrals, village manors and Masonic halls as testimonies to the public good.

The deep relationships between coal and modernity, and the expressions of architecture it has articulated, in the collieries from which it was hewn, the landscape and towns it shaped, and the power stations and other infrastructure where it was used, offer innumerable opportunities to explore how coal produced architectures which embodied and expressed both social and technological conditions. While proposals on coal are preferred, we also welcome papers that interrogate the complexity, heterogeneity and hybridity of other forms of energy production and how these have also interceded into architectural form at a range of scales.

Séquestration géologique du CO2 par carbonatation minérale dans les résidus miniers

La carbonatation minérale dans les résidus miniers est un moyen sûr et permanent de séquestrer le CO2 atmosphérique. C’est un processus naturel et passif qui ne nécessite aucun traitement particulier et donc avantageux d’un point de vue économique. Bien que la quantité de CO2 qu’il soit possible de séquestrer selon ce processus est faible à l’échelle globale, dans le cadre d’un marché du carbone, les entreprises minières pourraient obtenir des crédits et ainsi revaloriser leurs résidus. À l’heure actuelle, il y a peu d’informations pour quantifier le potentiel de séquestration du CO2 de façon naturelle et passive dans les piles de résidus miniers. Il est donc nécessaire d’étudier le phénomène pour comprendre comment évolue la réaction à travers le temps et estimer la quantité de CO2 qui peut être séquestrée naturellement dans les piles de résidus. Plusieurs travaux de recherche se sont intéressés aux résidus miniers de Thetford Mines (Québec, Canada), avec une approche principalement expérimentale en laboratoire. Ces travaux ont permis d’améliorer la compréhension du processus de carbonatation, mais ils nécessitent une validation à plus grande échelle sous des conditions atmosphériques réelles. L’objectif général de cette étude est de quantifier le processus de carbonatation minérale des résidus miniers sous des conditions naturelles, afin d’estimer la quantité de CO2 pouvant être piégée par ce processus. La méthodologie utilisée repose sur la construction de deux parcelles expérimentales de résidus miniers situées dans l’enceinte de la mine Black Lake (Thetford Mines). Les résidus miniers sont principalement constitués de grains et de fibres de chrysotile et lizardite mal triés, avec de petites quantités d’antigorite, de brucite et de magnétite. Des observations spatiales et temporelles ont été effectuées dans les parcelles concernant la composition et la pression des gaz, la température des résidus, la teneur en eau volumique, la composition minérale des résidus ainsi que la chimie de l’eau des précipitations et des lixiviats provenant des parcelles. Ces travaux ont permis d’observer un appauvrissement notable du CO2 dans les gaz des parcelles (< 50 ppm) ainsi que la précipitation d’hydromagnésite dans les résidus, ce qui suggère que la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive est un processus potentiellement important dans les résidus miniers. Après 4 ans d’observations, le taux de séquestration du CO2 dans les parcelles expérimentales a été estimé entre 3,5 et 4 kg/m3/an. Ces observations ont permis de développer un modèle conceptuel de la carbonatation minérale naturelle et passive dans les parcelles expérimentales. Dans ce modèle conceptuel, le CO2 atmosphérique (~ 400 ppm) se dissout dans l’eau hygroscopique contenue dans les parcelles, où l’altération des silicates de magnésium forme des carbonates de magnésium. La saturation en eau dans les cellules est relativement stable dans le temps et varie entre 0,4 et 0,65, ce qui est plus élevé que les valeurs de saturation optimales proposées dans la littérature, réduisant ainsi le transport de CO2 dans la zone non saturée. Les concentrations de CO2 en phase gazeuse, ainsi que des mesures de la vitesse d’écoulement du gaz dans les cellules suggèrent que la réaction est plus active près de la surface et que la diffusion du CO2 est le mécanisme de transport dominant dans les résidus. Un modèle numérique a été utilisé pour simuler ces processus couplés et valider le modèle conceptuel avec les observations de terrain. Le modèle de transport réactif multiphase et multicomposant MIN3P a été utilisé pour réaliser des simulations en 1D qui comprennent l’infiltration d’eau à travers le milieu partiellement saturé, la diffusion du gaz, et le transport de masse réactif par advection et dispersion. Même si les écoulements et le contenu du lixivat simulés sont assez proches des observations de terrain, le taux de séquestration simulé est 22 fois plus faible que celui mesuré. Dans les simulations, les carbonates précipitent principalement dans la partie supérieure de la parcelle, près de la surface, alors qu’ils ont été observés dans toute la parcelle. Cette différence importante pourrait être expliquée par un apport insuffisant de CO2 dans la parcelle, qui serait le facteur limitant la carbonatation. En effet, l’advection des gaz n’a pas été considérée dans les simulations et seule la diffusion moléculaire a été simulée. En effet, la mobilité des gaz engendrée par les fluctuations de pression barométrique et l’infiltration de l’eau, ainsi que l’effet du vent doivent jouer un rôle conséquent pour alimenter les parcelles en CO2.

Extração de blocos graníticos nas pedreiras de Cinza Ariz e Amarelo Macieira da empresa Polimagra – Granitos, S.A

A perfuração em maciços rochosos desempenha um papel fundamental na área da exploração e extração de rocha ornamental, nomeadamente em granitos. Para esse efeito, e como irá ser abordado neste trabalho, são utilizados pela empresa Polimagra – Granitos, S.A, nas pedreiras que explora, dois sistemas de perfuração: perfuração hidráulica e perfuração pneumática. Sendo um dos objetivos deste trabalho perceber qual o tipo de perfuração que apresenta maior rentabilidade, torna-se importante perceber as principais características dos dois sistemas de perfuração em estudo. Para isso, com a realização deste estágio curricular na empresa Polimagra – Granitos, S.A, foi possível comparar as principais diferenças dos dois sistemas utilizados, através do acompanhamento dos trabalhos de lavra em pedreiras, da cronometragem de tempos de perfuração em maciço rochoso granítico e da realização de um estudo de fracturação nas pedreiras de Cinza Ariz e Amarelo Macieira. Durante este tempo do estágio foi ainda possível acompanhar os diferentes métodos de transformação utilizado sobre os diferentes granitos obtidos, nas instalações fabris da empresa Polimagra – Granitos, S.A. De destacar ainda, e dentro da área da transformação do granito, a utilização de um sistema robótico de tecnologia de ponta, para corte, acabamento e embalamento de produtos em granito.

Les interconnexions électriques entre la France et ses voisins européens depuis 1970 : un vecteur méconnu de l'intégration européenne

Les ouvrages de transport d’électricité ont d’abord été pensés un par un, reliant un excédent de production à un besoin de consommation. Ils ont ainsi parfois très naturellement et dès l’origine traversé les frontières des États pour répondre à leur raison d’être. Les secteurs électriques se structurant fortement lorsque le virage électrique fut pris, les interconnexions entre pays furent conçues par les techniciens comme une mesure élémentaire de sûreté et d’équilibre de ce produit atypique qu’est l’électricité. En France plus particulièrement, lorsque la production électronucléaire se développa à partir des années 1970, ces interconnexions devinrent petit à petit sources de revenus pour l’entreprise nationale, et d’équilibre pour la balance commerciale nationale. L’intérêt grandissant porté au secteur électrique par les institutions européennes à la fin des années 1990 vient ébranler les acteurs économiques géographiques verticaux, et rebat les cartes des enjeux à adresser à une maille plus large que l’État nation. Dans ces transformations successives, les interconnexions aux frontières, et particulièrement aux frontières françaises, jouent ainsi un rôle tout à fait spécifique et de plus en plus structurant pour les économies ouvertes des pays européens. Les réseaux de transport électriques continuent ainsi une mutation entamée dans les années 1970 qui les a conduits de la condition de mal nécessaire à celle de vecteurs indispensables de transformation des économies européennes. L’objet de ce mémoire est d’illustrer la très grande capacité d’adaptation de ces organes industriels, économiques, sociétaux et politiques, dont on pourrait faussement penser qu’ils sont immobilisés par leur nature capitalistique, à travers les enjeux portés par les interconnexions aux frontières françaises. Les sources sont à la fois issues de données des opérateurs techniques, de la documentation – encore peu fréquente – sur ces sujets, ainsi que des statistiques officielles du ministère français. Cette capacité d’innovation et de développement de « couches de services » permet aujourd’hui aux grands réseaux de transport de traverser les époques et la variabilité des orientations de leurs environnements, durablement.

Proposta de uma matriz de decisão em energia hidrelétrica com o uso do método multicritério, para formulação de políticas públicas no estado do Paraná

Brazil is internationally acknowledged for its renewable sources, most notably, hydroelectric power plant projects which correspond to 65% of electricity production supply to the National Interconnected System. The main question behind this research is: what are the weights and the relative importance of the variables which have influence on the decision making process for the expansion of hydroelectric generation projects in Parana? The main objective is to propose a multi-criteria decision procedure, in association with water sources options that take into consideration the weight and relative importance of the alternatives having influence on the decision by enterprises in the generation of electricity in the state of Paraná. As far as the approach to the problem is concerned, this research can be classified as having mixed methodologies, applying Content Analysis, Delphi technique and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Following Delphi methodology, a group of 21 was selected for data collection, all of those linked to Paranaense hydroelectricity market. And the main result was the construction of a decision tree in which it was possible to identify the importance and relative weight of the elements associated with the four dimensions of energy. In environmental dimension, the highest relative weight was placed on the loading capacity of Parana system; the economic dimension, the amortization of investment; in social dimension, the generation of direct work places and in institutional dimension, the availability of suitable sources of financing. Policy makers and business managers make their decisions based on specific criteria related to the organization segment, market information, economic and political behavior among other indicators that guide them in dealing with the typical tradeoffs of projects in hydropower area. The results obtained in the decision tree show that the economic bias is still the main factor in making investment decisions. However, environmental impacts on the State loading capacity, income generation, providing opportunities for direct as well as indirect jobs. And at an institutional level, the absence of funding sources show that the perception of experts is focused on other issues beyond the logic behind development per se. The order of priority of variables in this study indicates that in the current environment of uncertainty in the Brazilian economy as many variables must be analyzed and compared in order to optimize the scarce resources available to expand local development in relation to Paranaense water matrix.

Fueling growth when oil peaks: directed technological change and the limits to efficiency

While fossil energy dependency has declined and energy supply has grown in the postwar world economy, future resource scarcity could cast its shadow on world economic growth soon if energy markets are forward looking. We develop an endogenous growth model that reconciles the current aggregate trends in energy use and productivity growth with the intertemporal dynamics of forward looking resource markets. Combining scarcity-rent driven energy supply (in the spirit of Hotelling) with profit-driven Directed Technical Change (in the spirit of Romer/Acemoglu), we generate transitional dynamics that can be qualitatively calibrated to current trends. The long-run properties of the model are studied to examine whether current trends are sustainable. We highlight the role of extraction costs in mining.

Exergy analysis of a solar photovoltaic module

PV energy is the direct conversion of solar radiation into electricity. In this paper, an analysis of the influence of parameters such as global irradiance or temperature in the performance of a PV installation has been carried out. A PV module was installed in a building at the University of Málaga, and these parameters were experimentally determined for different days and different conditions of irradiance and temperature. Moreover, IV curves were obtained under these conditions to know the open-circuit voltage and the short-circuit current of the module. With this information, and using the first law of thermodynamics, an energy analysis was performed to determine the energy efficiency of the installation. Similarly, using the second law of thermodynamics, an exergy analysis is used to obtain the exergy efficiency. The results show that the energy efficiency varies between 10% and 12% and the exergy efficiency between 14% and 17%. It was concluded that the exergy analysis is more suitable for studying the performance, and that only electric exergy must be considered as useful exergy. This exergy efficiency can be improved if heat is removed from the PV module surface, and an optimal temperature is reached.

Geologia e geometalurgia dos minérios de fosfato na base do manto de intemperismo da mina do Barreiro, Araxá

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Geociências, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geologia, 2015.

Techno-economic analysis of three HVAC retrofitting options

Accounting for around 40% of the total final energy consumption, the building stock is an important area of focus on the way to reaching the energy goals set for the European Union. The relatively small share of new buildings makes renovation of existing buildings possibly the most feasible way of improving the overall energy performance of the building stock. This of course involves improvements on the climate shell, for example by additional insulation or change of window glazing, but also installation of new heating systems, to increase the energy efficiency and to fit the new heat load after renovation. In the choice of systems for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), it is important to consider their performance for space heating as well as for domestic hot water (DHW), especially for a renovated house where the DHW share of the total heating consumption is larger. The present study treats the retrofitting of a generic single family house, which was defined as a reference building in a European energy renovation project. Three HVAC retrofitting options were compared from a techno-economic point of view: A) Air-to-water heat pump (AWHP) and mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR), B) Exhaust air heat pump (EAHP) with low-temperature ventilation radiators, and C) Gas boiler and ventilation with MVHR. The systems were simulated for houses with two levels of heating demand and four different locations: Stockholm, Gdansk, Stuttgart and London. They were then evaluated by means of life cycle cost (LCC) and primary energy consumption. Dynamic simulations were done in TRNSYS 17. In most cases, system C with gas boiler and MVHR was found to be the cheapest retrofitting option from a life cycle perspective. The advantage over the heat pump systems was particularly clear for a house in Germany, due to the large discrepancy between national prices of natural gas and electricity. In Sweden, where the price difference is much smaller, the heat pump systems had almost as low or even lower life cycle costs than the gas boiler system. Considering the limited availability of natural gas in Sweden, systems A and B would be the better options. From a primary energy point of view system A was the best option throughout, while system B often had the highest primary energy consumption. The limited capacity of the EAHP forced it to use more auxiliary heating than the other systems did, which lowered its COP. The AWHP managed the DHW load better due to a higher capacity, but had a lower COP than the EAHP in space heating mode. Systems A and C were notably favoured by the air heat recovery, which significantly reduced the heating demand. It was also seen that the DHW share of the total heating consumption was, as expected, larger for the house with the lower space heating demand. This confirms the supposition that it is important to include DHW in the study of HVAC systems for retrofitting.

Load profiling and data mining techniques in electricity deregulated market

This paper presents load profiles of electricity customers, using the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) procedure, a data mining technique, to determine the load profiles for different types of customers. In this paper, the current load profiling methods are compared using data mining techniques, by analysing and evaluating these classification techniques. The objective of this study is to determine the best load profiling methods and data mining techniques to classify, detect and predict non-technical losses in the distribution sector, due to faulty metering and billing errors, as well as to gather knowledge on customer behaviour and preferences so as to gain a competitive advantage in the deregulated market. This paper focuses mainly on the comparative analysis of the classification techniques selected; a forthcoming paper will focus on the detection and prediction methods.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.