Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Structural studies of the hen's egg lipovitellins. NMR and fluorescence investigations

The pH dependent reversible association-dissociation reaction of α- and β-lipovitellins from egg yolk has been studied by 1H NMR and fluorescence probe methods. Increased mobility of the choline methyl groups has been demonstrated on dissociation. The lipid methylene resonance of β-lipovitellin shows clear doublet character suggesting that the fatty acid chains exist in distinct environments. The high field component increases with temperature but is suppressed on treatment with pronase, suggesting a significant role for proteins in maintaining the differences in lipid environments. 1-Anilino-8-naphthalene sulfonate has been shown to bind less effectively to the monomeric lipovitellins. This is in agreement with earlier results suggesting that dissociation may be accompanied by increased hydration and conformational changes.

Physicochemical studies on the gelation of hen egg yolk; separation of gelling protein components from yolk plasma

A study of the component(s) in egg yolk responsible for gelation of yolk on freezing and thawing has shown that granule-free yolk plasma, obtained by high-speed centrifugation of yolk, has the capacity to gel. As with the whole yolk, gelation of yolk plasma on freezing and thawing could be inhibited by additives such as sugars, sodium chloride, proteolytic enzymes, and phospholipase-A. Phospholipase-C, which induces gelation of whole yolk at room temperature, has a similar effect on yolk plasma. Yolk plasma has been separated into aggregating (gelling) and soluble fractions by delipidation, using formic acid. Each of these fractions consists of three or four protein components, as observed by gel filtration, ultracentrifugation, and agar electrophoresis. The proteins are glycoproteins and contain bound hexoses, hexosamine, and sialic acid. The gelation of yolk has been attributed to the interactions between protein molecules following disruption of lipid-protein bonds.

Influence lines for bending under a ring load of a free shell, a shell embedded in a soft medium and a shell containing a soft core

Theoretical expressions for stresses and displacements have been derived for bending under a ring load of a free shell, a shell embedded in a soft medium, and a shell containing a soft core. Numerical work has been done for typical cases with an Elliot 803 Digital Computer and influence lines are drawn therefrom.

Stress concentration and load diffusion in rectangular panels with constant stress flanges

The stress concentration that occurs when load is diffused from a constant stress member into thin sheet is an important problem in the design of light weight structures. By using solutions in biharmonic polar-trigonometric series, the stress concentration can be effectively isolated so that highly accurate information necessary for design can be obtained. A method of analysis yielding high accuracy with limited effort is presented for rectangular panels with transverse edges free or supported by inextensional end ribs. Numerical data are given for panels with length twice the width.

Physicochemical studies on the gelation of hen's egg yolk: Delipidation of yolk plasma by treatment with phospholipase-C and extraction with solvents

A method for the delipidation of egg yolk plasma using phospholipase-C, n-heptane, and 1-butanol has been described. An aggregating protein fraction and a soluble protein fraction were separated by the action of phospholipase-C. The aggregating protein fraction freed of most of the lipids by treatment with n-heptane and 1-butanol was shown to be the apolipoproteins of yolk plasma, whereas the soluble proteins were identified as the livetins. Carbohydrate and the N-terminal amino acid analysis of these protein fractions are reported. A comparison of these protein fractions with the corresponding fractions obtained by formic acid delipidation of yolk plasma has been made. The gelation of yolk plasma by the action of phospholipase-C has been interpreted as an aggregation of lipoproteins caused by ionic interactions. The role of lecithin in maintaining the structural integrity of lipoproteins has been discussed.

A generalized Linear Programming based approach to optimal divisible load scheduling

In this paper we propose a general Linear Programming (LP) based formulation and solution methodology for obtaining optimal solution to the load distribution problem in divisible load scheduling. We exploit the power of the versatile LP formulation to propose algorithms that yield exact solutions to several very general load distribution problems for which either no solutions or only heuristic solutions were available. We consider both star (single-level tree) networks and linear daisy chain networks, having processors equipped with front-ends, that form the generic models for several important network topologies. We consider arbitrary processing node availability or release times and general models for communication delays and computation time that account for constant overheads such as start up times in communication and computation. The optimality of the LP based algorithms is proved rigorously.

Adaptive load control of the central processor in a distributed system with a star topology

The author presents adaptive control techniques for controlling the flow of real-time jobs from the peripheral processors (PPs) to the central processor (CP) of a distributed system with a star topology. He considers two classes of flow control mechanisms: (1) proportional control, where a certain proportion of the load offered to each PP is sent to the CP, and (2) threshold control, where there is a maximum rate at which each PP can send jobs to the CP. The problem is to obtain good algorithms for dynamically adjusting the control level at each PP in order to prevent overload of the CP, when the load offered by the PPs is unknown and varying. The author formulates the problem approximately as a standard system control problem in which the system has unknown parameters that are subject to change. Using well-known techniques (e.g., naive-feedback-controller and stochastic approximation techniques), he derives adaptive controls for the system control problem. He demonstrates the efficacy of these controls in the original problem by using the control algorithms in simulations of a queuing model of the CP and the load controls.

Mercury in Finnish forest lakes and reservoirs : anthropogenic contribution to the load and accumulation in fish

Yhteenveto: Elohopea Suomen metsäjärvissä ja tekoaltaissa: ihmisen vaikutus kuormitukseen ja pitoisuuksiin kaloissa.

Analysis of a thick plate with a circular hole resting on a smooth rigid bed and subjected to axisymmetric normal load

A solution for the stresses and displacements in an radially infinite thick plate having a circular hole, one face of which resting on a smooth rigid bed and the other face subjected to axisymmetric normal loading is given. The solution is obtained in terms of Fourier-Bessel series and integral for the Love's stress function. Numerical results are presented for one particular ratio of thickness of plate to the hole radius and loading. It is also shown that the Poisson's ratio has a predominant effect on certain stresses and displacements. The solution would be useful in the stress analysis of bolted joints.Eine Lösung für die Spannungen und Verschiebungen in einer radial, unendlich ausgedehnten, dicken Platte mit einem kreisförmigen Loch, wobei eine Seite auf einer ebenen, starren Unterlage aufliegt, die andere Seite durch eine achsensymmetrische Vertikallast belastet ist, wird angegeben. Die Lösung wird in Form von Fourier-Bessel-Reihen und Integralen der Loveschen Spannungsfunktion angegeben. Numerische Ergebnisse werden für ein bestimmtes Verhältnis der Plattendicke zum Lochradius sowie zur Belastung angegeben. Es wird auch gezeigt, daß das Poisssonsche Verhältnis einen besonderen Einfluß auf bestimmte Spannungen und Verschiebungen hat. Die Lösung ist anwendbar für die Spannungsermittlung von Bolzenverbindungen.

A monoclonal antibody recognizing the C-terminal region of chicken egg white riboflavin carrier protein terminates early pregnancy in mice

In order to identify the functionally relevant epitopes on chicken riboflavin carrier protein, we have raised monoclonal antibodies to the vitamin carrier. One of these, 6B2C12, was found to interact specifically with a synthetic oligopeptide corresponding to the C-terminal 17 amino acid residues of the chicken egg white riboflavin carrier protein, which is missing in part in the egg yolk riboflavin carrier protein. This epitope is conserved through evolution in mammals including humans. Administration of the ascites fluid of 6B2C12 to pregnant mice intraperitoneally, resulted in the termination of pregnancy indicating that this epitope is involved in or closely associated with the transplacental transport of the vitamin from the maternal circulation to the growing fetus.