Long-run substitutability between more and less educated workers: Evidence from U.S. States 1950-1990

We estimate the aggregate long-run elasticity of substitution between more and less educatedworkers (the slope of the demand curve for more relative to less educated workers) at theUS state level. Our data come from the (five)1950-1990 decennial censuses. Our empiricalapproach allows for state and time fixed effects and relies on time and state dependentchild labor and compulsory school attendance laws as instruments for (endogenous) changesin the relative supply of more educated workers. We find the aggregate long-run elasticity ofsubstitution between more and less educated workers to be around 1.5.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

A U-shaped association between intensity of Internet use and adolescent health.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between different Internet-use intensities and adolescent mental and somatic health. METHODS: Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health, a nationally representative survey of adolescents aged 16 to 20 years in post-mandatory school. From a self-administered anonymous questionnaire, 3906 adolescent boys and 3305 girls were categorized into 4 groups according to their intensity of Internet use: heavy Internet users (HIUs; >2 hours/day), regular Internet users (RIUs; several days per week and <= 2 hours/day), occasional users (<= 1 hour/week), and non-Internet users (NIUs; no use in the previous month). Health factors examined were perceived health, depression, overweight, headaches and back pain, and insufficient sleep. RESULTS: In controlled multivariate analysis, using RIUs as a reference, HIUs of both genders were more likely to report higher depressive scores, whereas only male users were found at increased risk of overweight and female users at increased risk of insufficient sleep. Male NIUs and female NIUs and occasional users also were found at increased risk of higher depressive scores. Back-pain complaints were found predominantly among male NIUs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence of a U-shaped relationship between intensity of Internet use and poorer mental health of adolescents. In addition, HIUs were confirmed at increased risk for somatic health problems. Thus, health professionals should be on the alert when caring for adolescents who report either heavy Internet use or very little/none. Also, they should consider regular Internet use as a normative behavior without major health consequence. Pediatrics 2011;127:e330-e335