Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

CORRELATION BETWEEN FLOWERING, FRUCTIFICATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN Solanum lycocarpum A. St.-Hil, SOLANACEAE

Solanum lycocarpum (lobeira) is a typical and abundant species of brazilian Cerrado, which occupies mainly surrounding disturbed areas. It has interesting characteristics from the point of view of reproductive biology, that probably are favoring the large occupation of habitats by the species. Based on the fact that the species produces flowers and fruit during all the year, the present study had the purpose to verify the association between flower and fruit production with environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), aiming to support future studies referring to reproductive biology and ecology of plant species from Cerrado biome. A population of S. lycocarpum composed of 34 plants in reproductive phase, situated in Morrinhos, south of the State of Goias, Brazil,, was evaluated. All the plants were geographically referenced with a GPS receptor. Observations were made monthly during 13 months (June, 2005 to July, 2006) quantifying open flowers and fruits produced in the intervals between the observations. It was possible suggest high conversion of flowers in fruits. The Spearman rank correlation showed positive correlation of flower number with precipitation and relative humidity. Fruit number was not correlated with the environmental variables.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

The dynamic of shrinkage/moisture content behavior determined during drying of microsamples for different kinds of wood

This article presents the results obtained from an experimental device designed for the accurate determination of wood/water relationship on microsamples. The moisture content of the sample is measured with a highly sensitive electronic microbalance and two dimensions of the sample are collected continuously without contact using high-speed laser scan micrometers. The whole device is placed in a climatic chamber. The microsamples investigated were prepared with a diamond wire saw. The unique ability of this device to work with small samples allowed normal, opposite, and reaction wood to be characterized separately. Experiments were carried out on three wood species (beech, spruce, and poplar). In the case of beech, a deviation from the linear relation between tangential shrinkage and moisture content between 40 and 20% is particularly noticeable for the first desorption. A localized collapse of ray cells could explain this result. Compared to normal wood, an important longitudinal shrinkage and a low tangential shrinkage were observed in compression wood of spruce. Both the tension wood and opposite wood of poplar exhibit a high longitudinal shrinkage, but no significant difference between the three types of wood is noticeable in the tangential direction.

Genetic variation for anatomic traits and volume shrinkage and their correlation with wood basic density in an Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn base population

Eucalyptus camaldulensis has great importance in Brazil because of their phenotypic plasticity for different environmental conditions, as soils, altitudes and rainfall. This study is an investigation of a base population of E. camaldulensis from Australia through a progeny test implanted in Selviria, MS. The trial was established in a randomized block design, with 25 families and 60 replications of single tree plots. Genetic parameters for anatomic traits and volume shrinkage were estimated, as well as their correlations with wood basic density. No significant differences among progenies were observed for the traits studied. The additive genetic variation coefficient at individual and among progeny levels ranged from low (0.26%) to high (16.98%). The narrow sense heritability at individual and family means levels also ranged from low (0.01) to high (0.87). This indicates that some traits are under strong genetic control and can be improved by selection. In the present situation, in order to attain the highest genetic gains, the sequential selection among and within progeny would be recommended.

Correlation between sensory and chemical markers in the evaluation of Brazil nut oxidative shelf-life

Sensory analysis is one of the most suitable processes for measuring oxidative damage and determining the shelf-life of nuts, but it is an expensive and time-consuming methodology. Thus, our objective was to correlate sensory data and chemical markers obtained during the accelerated oxidation of Brazil nuts and to determine the chemical parameters values associated with the sensory shelf-life of the nuts as established by the consumers. Brazil nuts were kept at 80 A degrees C for 21 days. At intervals of 2 days, the oxidized odor of the samples was analyzed by nine trained panelists using a discriminative scale, and the oil was extracted to quantify the chemical parameters. A high (r > 0.95) and significant correlation (p < 0.05) was observed between the sensory data and the hydroperoxide concentration (PV), para-anisidine value (pAV), hexanal content, and alpha- and gamma-tocopherol concentrations. When compared with fresh samples, sensory identification of oxidized odor occurred on the 4th day, noticeably earlier than changes in chemical markers (12th day). Consumers rejected the nuts after 12 days of storage, which corresponded to PV = 18.8 meq kg(-1) oil, pAV = 7.68, hexanal = 48.95 mu mol 100 g(-1) oil, alpha-tocopherol = 15.01 mg kg(-1) oil, and gamma + beta-tocopherol = 73.88 mg kg(-1) oil. Our study suggests that simple spectrometric methods, such as PV and pAV, can be used to estimate the oxidative shelf-life of nuts based on sensory analysis.

Correlation between Environmental Factors and Prevalence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters Harvested in the Southern Coastal Area of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The presence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in 123 oyster samples collected from an estuary on the southern coast of Sao Paulo state, Brazil, was investigated. Of the 123 samples, 99.2% were positive with densities ranging from <3 to 10(5) most probable number (MPN)/g. Densities correlated significantly with water temperature (r = 0.48; P < 0.001) but not with salinity (r = -0.09; P = 0.34). The effect of harvest site on counts was not significant (P > 0.05). These data provide information for the assessment of exposure of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters at harvest.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.

Intrinsic Dissolution as a Tool for Evaluating Drug Solubility in Accordance with the Biopharmaceutics Classification System

The Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) is a tool that was created to categorize drugs into different groups according to their solubility and permeability characteristics. Through a combination of these factors and physiological parameters, it is possible to understand the absorption behavior of a drug in the gastrointestinal tract, thus contributing to cost and time reductions in drug development, as well as reducing exposure of human subjects during in vivo trials. Solubility is attained by determining the equilibrium under conditions of physiological pH, while different methods may be employed for evaluating permeability. On the other hand, the intrinsic dissolution rate (IDR), which is defined as the rate of dissolution of a pure substance under constant temperature, pH, and surface area conditions, among others, may present greater correlation to the in vivo dissolution dynamic than the solubility test. The purpose of this work is to discuss the intrinsic dissolution test as a tool for determining the solubility of drugs within the scope of the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS).

Biophysical techniques used to evaluate the stratum corneum

Assortments of biophysical methods are used to the study the stratum corneum morphology and dynamic with the objective to elucidate the correlation between its structure and functions. Among these methods, there are: X-ray diffraction, electron paramagnetic resonance, differential scanning calorimetry, Raman spectroscopy with Fourrier transform, infrared spectroscopy and photoacustic spectroscopy. In this manuscript, methods are presented and discussed in relation to the use indication, interpretation of results and advantages and limitations to the stratum corneum analysis.

The importance of wet-powder dynamic mechanical properties in understanding granulation

Granule impact deformation has long been recognised as important in determining whether or not two colliding granules will coalesce. Work in the last 10 years has highlighted the fact that viscous effects are significant in granulation. The relative strengths of different formulations can vary with strain rate. Therefore, traditional strength measurements made at pseudo-static conditions give no indication, even qualitatively, of how materials will behave at high strain rates, and hence are actually misleading when used to model granule coalescence. This means that new standard methods need to be developed for determining the strain rates encountered by granules inside industrial equipment and also for measuring the mechanical properties of granules at these strain rates. The constitutive equations used in theoretical models of granule coalescence also need to be extended to include strain-rate dependent components.

Correlation of habitual physical activity levels with flow mediated dilation of the brachial artery in 5-10 year old children

Endothelial dysfunction is an early key event of atherogenesis. Both fitness level and exercise intervention have been shown to positively influence endothelial function. In a cross-sectional study of 47 children, the relationship between habitual physical activity and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery was explored. Habitual physical activity levels (PALs) were assessed using a validated stable isotope technique, and FMD of the brachial artery was measured via high-resolution ultrasound. The results showed that habitual physical activity significantly correlated with FMD (r=0.39, P=0.007), and remained the most influential variable on dilation in multivariate analysis. Although both fitness level and exercise intervention have previously been shown to positively influence FMD, this is the first time that a relationship with normal PALs has been investigated, especially, at such a young age. These data support the concept that physical activity exerts its protective effect on cardiovascular health via the endothelium and add further emphasis to the importance of physical activity in childhood.

Review of Contact and Dynamic Phenomena in Cold Roll Forming

This review reflects the state of the art in study of contact and dynamic phenomena occurring in cold roll forming. The importance of taking these phenomena into account is determined by significant machine time and tooling costs spent on worn out forming rolls replacement and equipment adjustment in cold roll forming. Predictive modelling of the tool wear caused by contact and dynamic phenomena can reduce the production losses in this technological process.

The Conditional Autonomy of Tafuri's Historian / De Provisorische Autonomie van de Historicus bij Tafuri

This article considers the conditions placed on the autonomous architectural history discipline often understood at stake in Manfredo Tafuri's 1968 book Teorie e storia dell'architettura.

Turbulence in Hydraulic Jumps: Experimental Measurements

A hydraulic jump is the transition from a supercritical open channel flow to a subcritical regime. It is characterised by a highly turbulent flow with macro-scale vortices, some kinetic energy dissipation and a bubbly two-phase flow structure. New air-water flow measurements were performed in hydraulic jump flows for a range of inflow Froude numbers. The experiments were conducted in a large-size facility using two types of phase-detection intrusive probes: i.e., single-tip and double-tip conductivity probes. These were complemented by some measurements of free-surface fluctuations using ultrasonic displacement meters. The present study was focused on the turbulence characteristics of hydraulic jumps with partially-developed inflow conditions. The void fraction measurements showed the presence of an advective diffusion shear layer in which the void fractions profiles matched closely an analytical solution of the advective diffusion equation for air bubbles. The present results highlighted some influence of the inflow Froude number onto the air bubble entrainment process. At the largest Froude numbers, the advected air bubbles were more thoroughly dispersed vertically, and larger amount of air bubbles were detected in the turbulent shear layer. In the air-water mixing layer, the maximum void fraction and bubble count rate data showed some longitudinal decay function in the flow direction. Such trends were previously reported in the literature. The measurements of interfacial velocity and turbulence level distributions provided new information on the turbulent velocity field in the highly-aerated shear region. The present data suggested some longitudinal decay of the turbulence intensity. The velocity profiles tended to follow a wall jet flow pattern. The air–water turbulent time and length scales were deduced from some auto- and cross-correlation analyses based upon the method of CHANSON (2006,2007). The results provided the integral turbulent time and length scales of the eddy structures advecting the air bubbles in the developing shear layer. The experimental data showed that the auto-correlation time scale Txx was larger than the transverse cross-correlation time scale Txz. The integral turbulence length scale Lxz was a function of the inflow conditions, of the streamwise position (x-x1)/d1 and vertical elevation y/d1. Herein the dimensionless integral turbulent length scale Lxz/d1 was closely related to the inflow depth: i.e., Lxz/d1 = 0.2 to 0.8, with Lxz increasing towards the free-surface. The free-surface fluctuations measurements showed large turbulent fluctuations that reflected the dynamic, unsteady structure of the hydraulic jumps. A linear relationship was found between the normalized maximum free-surface fluctuation and the inflow Froude number.