Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

Bayesian Methods for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Comments on: Static and dynamic source locations in undirected networks

SCOPUS: ed.j

Dynamic Resource Allocation in Wireless Heterogeneous Networks

Deployment of low power basestations within cellular networks can potentially increase both capacity and coverage. However, such deployments require efficient resource allocation schemes for managing interference from the low power and macro basestations that are located within each other’s transmission range. In this dissertation, we propose novel and efficient dynamic resource allocation algorithms in the frequency, time and space domains. We show that the proposed algorithms perform better than the current state-of-art resource management algorithms. In the first part of the dissertation, we propose an interference management solution in the frequency domain. We introduce a distributed frequency allocation scheme that shares frequencies between macro and low power pico basestations, and guarantees a minimum average throughput to users. The scheme seeks to minimize the total number of frequencies needed to honor the minimum throughput requirements. We evaluate our scheme using detailed simulations and show that it performs on par with the centralized optimum allocation. Moreover, our proposed scheme outperforms a static frequency reuse scheme and the centralized optimal partitioning between the macro and picos. In the second part of the dissertation, we propose a time domain solution to the interference problem. We consider the problem of maximizing the alpha-fairness utility over heterogeneous wireless networks (HetNets) by jointly optimizing user association, wherein each user is associated to any one transmission point (TP) in the network, and activation fractions of all TPs. Activation fraction of a TP is the fraction of the frame duration for which it is active, and together these fractions influence the interference seen in the network. To address this joint optimization problem which we show is NP-hard, we propose an alternating optimization based approach wherein the activation fractions and the user association are optimized in an alternating manner. The subproblem of determining the optimal activation fractions is solved using a provably convergent auxiliary function method. On the other hand, the subproblem of determining the user association is solved via a simple combinatorial algorithm. Meaningful performance guarantees are derived in either case. Simulation results over a practical HetNet topology reveal the superior performance of the proposed algorithms and underscore the significant benefits of the joint optimization. In the final part of the dissertation, we propose a space domain solution to the interference problem. We consider the problem of maximizing system utility by optimizing over the set of user and TP pairs in each subframe, where each user can be served by multiple TPs. To address this optimization problem which is NP-hard, we propose a solution scheme based on difference of submodular function optimization approach. We evaluate our scheme using detailed simulations and show that it performs on par with a much more computationally demanding difference of convex function optimization scheme. Moreover, the proposed scheme performs within a reasonable percentage of the optimal solution. We further demonstrate the advantage of the proposed scheme by studying its performance with variation in different network topology parameters.

Trajectory Privacy Preservation in Mobile Wireless Sensor Networks

In recent years, there has been an enormous growth of location-aware devices, such as GPS embedded cell phones, mobile sensors and radio-frequency identification tags. The age of combining sensing, processing and communication in one device, gives rise to a vast number of applications leading to endless possibilities and a realization of mobile Wireless Sensor Network (mWSN) applications. As computing, sensing and communication become more ubiquitous, trajectory privacy becomes a critical piece of information and an important factor for commercial success. While on the move, sensor nodes continuously transmit data streams of sensed values and spatiotemporal information, known as ``trajectory information". If adversaries can intercept this information, they can monitor the trajectory path and capture the location of the source node. This research stems from the recognition that the wide applicability of mWSNs will remain elusive unless a trajectory privacy preservation mechanism is developed. The outcome seeks to lay a firm foundation in the field of trajectory privacy preservation in mWSNs against external and internal trajectory privacy attacks. First, to prevent external attacks, we particularly investigated a context-based trajectory privacy-aware routing protocol to prevent the eavesdropping attack. Traditional shortest-path oriented routing algorithms give adversaries the possibility to locate the target node in a certain area. We designed the novel privacy-aware routing phase and utilized the trajectory dissimilarity between mobile nodes to mislead adversaries about the location where the message started its journey. Second, to detect internal attacks, we developed a software-based attestation solution to detect compromised nodes. We created the dynamic attestation node chain among neighboring nodes to examine the memory checksum of suspicious nodes. The computation time for memory traversal had been improved compared to the previous work. Finally, we revisited the trust issue in trajectory privacy preservation mechanism designs. We used Bayesian game theory to model and analyze cooperative, selfish and malicious nodes' behaviors in trajectory privacy preservation activities.

The Dynamic and Changing Development of EERA Networks

In this article the authors use two EERA networks as a case for a discussion on the development of research networks within the European Educational Research Association (EERA). They contend that EERA networks through their way of working create a European research space. As their case shows, the development of networks is diverse. The emergence of networks and the current group of thirty-one networks do not display a coherent and unified system. Thus they argue that EERA networks have to be studied as an open complex system in order to comprehend the multiplicity and creative and innovative space that these networks represent. They create a space for knowledge production in a European context, enabling educational researchers to see and experience their research in a more diverse setting.

Assessing mackerel scad, Decapterus macarellus, in Cape Verde: using a Bayesian approach to biomass dynamic modelling in a data-limited situation

The fisheries for mackerel scad, Decapterus macarellus, are particularly important in Cape Verde, constituting almost 40% of total catches at the peak of the fishery in 1997 and 1998 ( 3700 tonnes). Catches have been stable at a much lower level of about 2 100 tonnes in recent years. Given the importance of mackerel scad in terms of catch weight and local food security, there is an urgent need for updated assessment. Stock assessment was carried out using a Bayesian approach to biomass dynamic modelling. In order to tackle the problem of a non-informative CPUE series, the intrinsic rate of increase, r, was estimated separately, and the ratio B-0/X, initial biomass relative to carrying capacity, was assumed based on available information. The results indicated that the current level of fishing is sustainable. The probability of collapse is low, particularly in the short-term, and it is likely that biomass may increase further above B-msy, indicating a healthy stock level. It would appear that it is relatively safe to increase catches even up to 4000 tonnes. However, the marginal posterior of r was almost identical to the prior, indicating that there is relatively low information content in CPUE. This was also the case in relation to B-0/X There have been substantial increases in fishing efficiency, which have not been adequately captured by the measure used for effort (days or trips), implying that the results may be overly optimistic and should be considered preliminary. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design, realization, and characterization of complex reaction networks in dynamic mechanically interlocked molecules

The experimental projects discussed in this thesis are all related to the field of artificial molecular machines, specifically to systems composed of pseudorotaxane and rotaxane architectures. The characterization of the peculiar properties of these mechano-molecules is frequently associated with the analysis and elucidation of complex reaction networks; this latter aspect represents the main focus and central thread tying my thesis work. In each chapter, a specific project is described as summarized below: the focus of the first chapter is the realization and characterization of a prototype model of a photoactivated molecular transporter based on a pseudorotaxane architecture; in the second chapter is reported the design, synthesis, and characterization of a [2]rotaxane endowed with a dibenzylammonium station and a novel photochromic unit that acts as a recognition site for a DB24C8 crown ether macrocycle; in the last chapter is described the synthesis and characterization of a [3]rotaxane in which the relative number of rings and stations can be changed on command.

Integrated communication and learning towards autonomous mobile radio networks

The integration of distributed and ubiquitous intelligence has emerged over the last years as the mainspring of transformative advancements in mobile radio networks. As we approach the era of “mobile for intelligence”, next-generation wireless networks are poised to undergo significant and profound changes. Notably, the overarching challenge that lies ahead is the development and implementation of integrated communication and learning mechanisms that will enable the realization of autonomous mobile radio networks. The ultimate pursuit of eliminating human-in-the-loop constitutes an ambitious challenge, necessitating a meticulous delineation of the fundamental characteristics that artificial intelligence (AI) should possess to effectively achieve this objective. This challenge represents a paradigm shift in the design, deployment, and operation of wireless networks, where conventional, static configurations give way to dynamic, adaptive, and AI-native systems capable of self-optimization, self-sustainment, and learning. This thesis aims to provide a comprehensive exploration of the fundamental principles and practical approaches required to create autonomous mobile radio networks that seamlessly integrate communication and learning components. The first chapter of this thesis introduces the notion of Predictive Quality of Service (PQoS) and adaptive optimization and expands upon the challenge to achieve adaptable, reliable, and robust network performance in dynamic and ever-changing environments. The subsequent chapter delves into the revolutionary role of generative AI in shaping next-generation autonomous networks. This chapter emphasizes achieving trustworthy uncertainty-aware generation processes with the use of approximate Bayesian methods and aims to show how generative AI can improve generalization while reducing data communication costs. Finally, the thesis embarks on the topic of distributed learning over wireless networks. Distributed learning and its declinations, including multi-agent reinforcement learning systems and federated learning, have the potential to meet the scalability demands of modern data-driven applications, enabling efficient and collaborative model training across dynamic scenarios while ensuring data privacy and reducing communication overhead.

Multidisciplinary optimization of a catamaran's hydrofoil design with dynamic response surface and distributive processing

This paper presents a rational approach to the design of a catamaran's hydrofoil applied within a modern context of multidisciplinary optimization. The approach used includes the use of response surfaces represented by neural networks and a distributed programming environment that increases the optimization speed. A rational approach to the problem simplifies the complex optimization model; when combined with the distributed dynamic training used for the response surfaces, this model increases the efficiency of the process. The results achieved using this approach have justified this publication.

Active Dendrites Enhance Neuronal Dynamic Range

Since the first experimental evidences of active conductances in dendrites, most neurons have been shown to exhibit dendritic excitability through the expression of a variety of voltage-gated ion channels. However, despite experimental and theoretical efforts undertaken in the past decades, the role of this excitability for some kind of dendritic computation has remained elusive. Here we show that, owing to very general properties of excitable media, the average output of a model of an active dendritic tree is a highly non-linear function of its afferent rate, attaining extremely large dynamic ranges (above 50 dB). Moreover, the model yields double-sigmoid response functions as experimentally observed in retinal ganglion cells. We claim that enhancement of dynamic range is the primary functional role of active dendritic conductances. We predict that neurons with larger dendritic trees should have larger dynamic range and that blocking of active conductances should lead to a decrease in dynamic range.

Finding Quasi-Optimal Network Topologies for Information Transmission in Active Networks

This work clarifies the relation between network circuit (topology) and behaviour (information transmission and synchronization) in active networks, e.g. neural networks. As an application, we show how one can find network topologies that are able to transmit a large amount of information, possess a large number of communication channels, and are robust under large variations of the network coupling configuration. This theoretical approach is general and does not depend on the particular dynamic of the elements forming the network, since the network topology can be determined by finding a Laplacian matrix (the matrix that describes the connections and the coupling strengths among the elements) whose eigenvalues satisfy some special conditions. To illustrate our ideas and theoretical approaches, we use neural networks of electrically connected chaotic Hindmarsh-Rose neurons.