Forecasting daily volatility using high frequency financial data

Aiming at empirical findings, this work focuses on applying the HEAVY model for daily volatility with financial data from the Brazilian market. Quite similar to GARCH, this model seeks to harness high frequency data in order to achieve its objectives. Four variations of it were then implemented and their fit compared to GARCH equivalents, using metrics present in the literature. Results suggest that, in such a market, HEAVY does seem to specify daily volatility better, but not necessarily produces better predictions for it, what is, normally, the ultimate goal. The dataset used in this work consists of intraday trades of U.S. Dollar and Ibovespa future contracts from BM&FBovespa.

Entry mistakes happen!

Frequently, aspiring entrants have only limited infonnation about their potential rivaIs' entry decisions. As a result, the outcome of the entry game may be that more firms enter than the market can sustain; or, at least, that unnecessary entry investments are made: entry mistakes may happen. We consider two models of non-coordinated entry. In these models, entry mistakes occur because of lags in observing rivaIs' entry decisions (grabthe- dollar entry) or because entry investments take time (war-of-attrition entry). The widebody aircraft industry in the late sixties is presented as supporting evidence for the models' assumptions. We also discuss the welfare implications of non-coordinated free entry. Both models predict that entry incentives are excessive (resp. insufficient) when duopoly profits are high (resp. low). However, if entry costs are high, entry incentives are excessive under war-of-attrition entry but insufficient under grab-the-dollar entry.

Renegociação da dívida interna mobiliária : uma proposta

This article develops arguments in favor of recomposing the time to maturityof the domestic public bond's debt and presents calcul.ations on the amount of tax required by different terms of payment of that debt, assuming that it is rescheduled. Tv..'O alternatives are presented ~nd evaluated. Alternative one offers a collateral for the principal owed and calculates' the. flow of interest in relation to GDP during the repayment period . Alternative two is based on making.gradual and small down~payments to repay the old debt within a newinstitutional framework. Both alternatives yield a substantial alleviation of the interest burden compared to the present policy. The main conclusion is that with a dollar long-term ·interest rate similar to the ones observed in the international markets -- about 8%~ year -- and a 3% a year GDP growth rate, the domestic public debt could be paid in 20 years if a yearly provision of only 0,6% of GDP is allocated to its payment.

A risk management approach to emerging market's sovereign debt sustainability with an application to Brazilian data

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.

Testing covariance stationarity

In this paper, we show that the widely used stationarity tests such as the KPSS test has power close to size in the presence of time-varying unconditional variance. We propose a new test as a complement of the existing tests. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test possesses the following characteristics: (i) In the presence of unit root or a structural change in the mean, the proposed test is as powerful as the KPSS and other tests; (ii) In the presence a changing variance, the traditional tests perform badly whereas the proposed test has high power comparing to the existing tests; (iii) The proposed test has the same size as traditional stationarity tests under the null hypothesis of covariance stationarity. An application to daily observations of return on US Dollar/Euro exchange rate reveals the existence of instability in the unconditional variance when the entire sample is considered, but stability is found in sub-samples.

Spectral properties of temporally aggregated long memory processes

This paper derives the spectral density function of aggregated long memory processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from previous analyses in the literature and a small simulation exercise provides evidence in our favour. The main result point to that flow aggregates from long memory processes shall be less biased than stock ones, although both retain the degree of long memory. This result is illustrated with the daily US Dollar/ French Franc exchange rate series.

Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyse the domestic public debt management experience in Brazil, searching for policy prescriptions for the next few years. After briefiy reviewing the recent domestic public debt history, we decompose the large rise in federal bonded debt during 1995-2000, searching for its macroeconomic causes. The main culprits are the extremely high interest payments-which, unti11998, were caused by the weak fiscal stance and the quasi-fixed exchange-rate regime; and since 1999, by the impact ofthe currency depreciation On the dollar-indexed and the externai debt-, and the accumulation of assets of doubtful value, much of which may have to be written off in the future. Simulation exercises of the net debt path for the near future underscore the importance of a tighter fiscal stance to prevent the debt-GDP ratio from growing further. Given the need to quickly lengthen the debt maturity, our main policy advice is to foster, and rely more on, infiation-linked bonds.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Especificação da paridade descoberta de juros no mercado brasileiro

Medimos a validade da paridade descoberta de juros – PDJ - para o mercado brasileiro no período de janeiro de 2010 a julho de 2014. Testamos a equação clássica da PDJ usando o Método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários. Após a estimação dos parâmetros, aplicamos o Teste de Wald e verificamos que a paridade descoberta de juros não foi validada. Estendemos a equação tradicional da PDJ para uma especificação alternativa que captura medidas de risco Brasil e de alteração na liquidez internacional. Especificamente, acrescentamos três variáveis de controle: duas variáveis dummy que capturam condições de liquidez externa e o índice de commoditie CRB, que captura o risco Brasil. Com a especificação alternativa, a hipótese de que os retornos das taxas de juros em Real, dolarizadas, são iguais aos retornos da taxas de juros contratadas em dólares, ambas sujeitas ao risco Brasil, não foi rejeitada. Em complemento à análise das taxas representativas do mercado brasileiro, procurou-se avaliar a predominância da PDJ nas operações de swap cambial realizadas pela Vale S.A.. Para tanto, a série de taxa de juros em dólares do mercado brasileiro foi substituída pela taxa em dólar dos swaps contratados pela Vale. Os resultados encontrados demonstram que, quando comparado ao comportamento do mercado, as taxas em dólares da VALE são mais sensíveis às variações das taxas em Reais.

Os determinantes macroeconômicos da estrutura a termo das taxas de juros em dólar no Brasil

Este trabalho propõe o desenvolvimento de um modelo de três fatores em que os movimentos da Estrutura a Termo da Taxa de Juros em Dólar, o Cupom Cambial, são determinados por variáveis macroeconômicas observáveis. O estudo segue a metodologia elaborada por Huse (2011), que propõe um modelo baseado nos estudos de Nelson e Siegel (1987) e Diebold e Li (2006). Os fatores utilizados são: taxa de câmbio em real por dólar, spread do Credit Default Swap (CDS) Brasil de cinco anos, índice de preço de commodities, taxa de cupom cambial futura com vencimento em três meses, taxa futura de juros em dólar com cupom zero (Libor), volatilidade implícita da taxa de câmbio esperada pelo mercado de hoje até um ano, e inflação implícita de um ano no Brasil. O modelo foi capaz de explicar 95% das mudanças na estrutura a termo do cupom cambial. Aumentos no spread do CDS, na taxa de cupom cambial de três meses, na Libor, no índice de preço de commodities, e na volatilidade implícita do câmbio com vencimento em um ano estão diretamente relacionados com aumento na curva de juros em dólar. Por sua vez, a depreciação cambial tem correlação positiva com as maturidades mais curtas, até 2.5 anos, e negativo com a parte longa, até cinco anos. Choques na inflação implícita têm um pequeno impacto positivo para vencimentos curtos, mas levemente negativo para vencimentos mais longos.

Os efeitos macroeconômicos das transferências sociais: uma abordagem de matriz de contabilidade social

Government transfers to individuals and families play a central role in the Brazilian social protection system, accounting for almost 14 per cent of GDP in 2009. While their fiscal and redistributive impacts have been widely studied, the macroeconomic effects of transfers are harder to ascertain. We constructed a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2009 and estimated short-term multipliers for seven different government monetary transfers . The SAM is a double-entry square matrix depicting all income flows in the economy. The data were compiled from the 2009 Brazilian National Accounts and the 2008/2009 POF, a household budget survey. Our SAM was disaggregated into 56 sectors, 110 commodities, 200 household groups and seven factors of production (capital plus six types of labor, according to schooling). Finally, we ran a set of regressions to separate household consumption into ‘autonomous’ (or ‘exogenous’) and ‘endogenous’ components. More specifically, we are interested in the effects of an exogenous injection into each of the seven government transfers outlined above. All the other accounts are thus endogenous. The so-called demand ‘leaks’ are income flows from the endogenous to exogenous accounts. Leaks—such as savings, taxes and imports—are crucial to determine the multiplier effect of an exogenous injection, as they allow the system to go back to equilibrium. The model assumes that supply is perfectly elastic to demand shocks. It assumes that the families’ propensity to save and consumption profile are fixed—that is, rising incomes do not provoke changes in behaviour. The multiplier effects of the on GDP corresponds to the growth in GDP resulting from each additional dollar injected into each transfer seven government transfers. If the government increased Bolsa Família expenditures by 1 per cent of GDP, overall economic activity would grow by 1.78 per cent, the highest effect. The Continuous Cash Benefit, comes second. Only three transfers— the private-sector and public servants’ pensions and FGTS withdrawals—had multipliers lower than unity. The multipliers for other relevant macroeconomic aggregates—household and total consumption, disposable income etc. —reveal a similar pattern. Thus, under the stringent assumptions of our model, we cannot reject the hypothesis that government transfers targeting poor households, such as the Bolsa Família, help foster economic expansion. Naturally, it should be stressed that the multipliers relate marginal injections into government transfers to short-term economic performance either real growth, or inflation if there is no idle capacity which is also useful to analyze. In the long term, there is no doubt that what truly matters is the growth of the country’s productive capacity.

O “elo perdido” entre a organização mundial do comércio e o fundo monetário internacional

One of the main objectives of the Bretton Woods negotiations was to guarantee the firm control over competitive exchange rate devaluations, which had worsened the effects of the economic crisis of the 1930s. The par value exchange rate system was thus created, representing a link between the international financial system and the international trading system, guaranteeing, to the latter, the neutrality of the currency issue. The present article analyses how the institutional revolutions suffered by the IMF ended up representing the loss of this link and discusses its consequences to the WTO

Avaliação microeconômica do comportamento de investidores frente às alterações de condições de mercado : os determinantes da não racionalidade dos investidores no mercado de fundos brasileiros

Neste trabalho buscamos identificar os principais determinantes da demanda por fundos de investimento no Brasil através do modelo Logit, que é bastante utilizado na teoria das organizações industriais. Sempre que possível realizamos “links” com os principais conceitos de finanças comportamentais. Assim, conseguimos aclarar as principais variáveis que impactam as variações de “market-share” na indústria de fundos de investimento. Concluímos que os principais indicadores observados pelos investidores no momento de tomada de decisão são o CDI, a inflação, a taxa real de juros, a variação do dólar e da bolsa de valores, por outro lado a rentabilidade acumulada dos últimos três meses é fator decisivo para que o investidor aplique ou resgate um fundo de investimento. Variáveis de risco e de retorno esperado que imaginávamos ter forte impacto, não se mostraram significativas para as variações de “share”.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2010-2011: The region in the decade of the emerging economies

Incluye Bibliografía