Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

A recoverable production planning model

Aware of the importance of developing new alternatives to improve the performance of the companies, our purpose in this paper is to develop a medium term production planning model that deals with the concepts of Partnership and Reverse Logistics. Our model takes advantage of the synergies of integration, developing a model for global production planning that generates the optimal production and purchasing schedule for all the companies integrating a logistic chain. In a second part of the paper we incorporate products returns to the first model proposed, and analyze the implications they have over this model. We use some examples with different configurations of supply chains varying the number of production plants, distribution centers and recovery plants. To solve the model we have combined optimization and simulation procedures.

A model of conglomeration and synergy traps

We present a model of conglomeration motivated by technology synergies and strategic reductions in variable costs in the face of competitive pressures. The resulting firm integration is neither horizontal nor vertical but rather congeneric integration of firms in related industries. We endogenize the industrial conglomeration structure and examine the effects of competition between conglomerates, and between a conglomerate and independent firms. We show that there is an equilibrium synergy trap in which conglomerates are formed to exploit economies of scope, but resulting profits are lower than under the status quo. We also show that strategic firm integration can occur even in the presence of diseconomies of scope. The model helps to explain features of recent mergers and acquisitions experience.

Change of individual BMI in Switzerland and the USA: a multilevel model for growth

Objective The aim is to analyze and compare individual BMI growth patterns of adults from Switzerland and the U.S. Methods The analyses are based on data from two population representative longitudinal household surveys, one from Switzerland, the other from the U.S. Each data set contains up to four data points for each adult individual. We use multilevel models for growth. Results It can be shown that growth patterns are different in different cohorts in the two countries: there are only small growth differences in the youngest and oldest, but large differences in the middle ages. The individual BMI increase of the middle age Swiss amounts to only half of that in the comparable U.S. individuals. Conclusion Given the much higher BMI level especially in the youngest cohort, this points to severe obesity problems in the U.S. middle aged population in the near future. A positive correlation between individual BMI level and growth may aggravate this fact.

Analyses of six homologous proteins of Protochlamydia amoebophila UWE25 encoded by large GC-rich genes (lgr): a model of evolution and concatenation of leucine-rich repeats.

BACKGROUND: Along the chromosome of the obligate intracellular bacteria Protochlamydia amoebophila UWE25, we recently described a genomic island Pam100G. It contains a tra unit likely involved in conjugative DNA transfer and lgrE, a 5.6-kb gene similar to five others of P. amoebophila: lgrA to lgrD, lgrF. We describe here the structure, regulation and evolution of these proteins termed LGRs since encoded by "Large G+C-Rich" genes. RESULTS: No homologs to the whole protein sequence of LGRs were found in other organisms. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that serial duplications producing the six LGRs occurred relatively recently and nucleotide usage analyses show that lgrB, lgrE and lgrF were relocated on the chromosome. The C-terminal part of LGRs is homologous to Leucine-Rich Repeats domains (LRRs). Defined by a cumulative alignment score, the 5 to 18 concatenated octacosapeptidic (28-meric) LRRs of LGRs present all a predicted alpha-helix conformation. Their closest homologs are the 28-residue RI-like LRRs of mammalian NODs and the 24-meres of some Ralstonia and Legionella proteins. Interestingly, lgrE, which is present on Pam100G like the tra operon, exhibits Pfam domains related to DNA metabolism. CONCLUSION: Comparison of the LRRs, enable us to propose a parsimonious evolutionary scenario of these domains driven by adjacent concatenations of LRRs. Our model established on bacterial LRRs can be challenged in eucaryotic proteins carrying less conserved LRRs, such as NOD proteins and Toll-like receptors.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

Discovery of the faithfulness gene: a model of transmission and transformation of scientific information.

The purpose of this paper is to study the diffusion and transformation of scientific information in everyday discussions. Based on rumour models and social representations theory, the impact of interpersonal communication and pre-existing beliefs on transmission of the content of a scientific discovery was analysed. In three experiments, a communication chain was simulated to investigate how laypeople make sense of a genetic discovery first published in a scientific outlet, then reported in a mainstream newspaper and finally discussed in groups. Study 1 (N=40) demonstrated a transformation of information when the scientific discovery moved along the communication chain. During successive narratives, scientific expert terminology disappeared while scientific information associated with lay terminology persisted. Moreover, the idea of a discovery of a faithfulness gene emerged. Study 2 (N=70) revealed that transmission of the scientific message varied as a function of attitudes towards genetic explanations of behaviour (pro-genetics vs. anti-genetics). Pro-genetics employed more scientific terminology than anti-genetics. Study 3 (N=75) showed that endorsement of genetic explanations was related to descriptive accounts of the scientific information, whereas rejection of genetic explanations was related to evaluative accounts of the information.

Anàlisi d'un spot televisiu segons el model proposat per Frederic Chaume : Estudi d'un cas: Beauty is nothing without brains

L’estudi de les situacions comunicatives sempre m’ha atret de manera significativa. El món de la publicitat, també. L’assignatura de Semiòtica audiovisual ha estat el vincle que ha inspirat el tema d’aquest treball. L’idea inicial era la d’analitzar des d’una perspectiva semiòtica un document audiovisual, concretament, Beauty is nothing without brains, un espot televisiu de Mercedes-Benz emès als Estats Units l’any 2007. Es pretenia identificar i analitzar cadascun dels elements que configuren la comunicació audiovisual i presentar possibles versions traductològiques del mateix. La dificultat de crear un esquema d’anàlisi que em permetés estructurar-ne l’estudi va conduir-me a Frederic Chaume. És llavors quan aconsegueixo concretar el tema del treball: es pretén analitzar aquest document audiovisual seguint el model proposat per Chaume, responent a un hipotètic encàrrec de traducció el qual demana la seva adaptació al mercat català.

Verification at the protein level of the PIF4-mediated external coincidence model for the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plant circadian clock controls a wide variety of physiological and developmental events, which include the short-days (SDs)-specific promotion of the elongation of hypocotyls during de-etiolation and also the elongation of petioles during vegetative growth. In A. thaliana, the PIF4 gene encoding a phytochrome-interacting basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factor plays crucial roles in this photoperiodic control of plant growth. According to the proposed external coincidence model, the PIF4 gene is transcribed precociously at the end of night specifically in SDs, under which conditions the protein product is stably accumulated, while PIF4 is expressed exclusively during the daytime in long days (LDs), under which conditions the protein product is degraded by the light-activated phyB and also the residual proteins are inactivated by the DELLA family of proteins. A number of previous reports provided solid evidence to support this coincidence model mainly at the transcriptional level of the PIF 4 and PIF4-traget genes. Nevertheless, the diurnal oscillation profiles of PIF4 proteins, which were postulated to be dependent on photoperiod and ambient temperature, have not yet been demonstrated. Here we present such crucial evidence on PIF4 protein level to further support the external coincidence model underlying the temperature-adaptive photoperiodic control of plant growth in A. thaliana.

A dynamic model for stem cell homeostasis and patterning in Arabidopsis meristems.

Plants maintain stem cells in their meristems as a source for new undifferentiated cells throughout their life. Meristems are small groups of cells that provide the microenvironment that allows stem cells to prosper. Homeostasis of a stem cell domain within a growing meristem is achieved by signalling between stem cells and surrounding cells. We have here simulated the origin and maintenance of a defined stem cell domain at the tip of Arabidopsis shoot meristems, based on the assumption that meristems are self-organizing systems. The model comprises two coupled feedback regulated genetic systems that control stem cell behaviour. Using a minimal set of spatial parameters, the mathematical model allows to predict the generation, shape and size of the stem cell domain, and the underlying organizing centre. We use the model to explore the parameter space that allows stem cell maintenance, and to simulate the consequences of mutations, gene misexpression and cell ablations.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

Trying to define Free Will : a cognitive and fonctional model proposal

The debate about Free Will has been in the human mind for centuries, but has become even more intense with the recent scientific findings adding new lights on the problem. This interdisciplinary explosion of interest for the topic has brought many insightful knowledge, but also a great deal of epistemological problems. We think that those epistemological problems are deeply related to the very definition of Free Will and how this definition interacts with the interpretations of experimental results. We will thus outline a few of these problems and then propose a definition of Free Will which takes into account those epistemological pitfalls.

Sex differences in urinary levels of several biological indicators of exposure: a simulation study using a compartmental based toxicokinetic model

Toxicokinetic modeling is a useful tool to describe or predict the behavior of a chemical agent in the human or animal organism. A general model based on four compartments was developed in a previous study in order to quantify the effect of human variability on a wide range of biological exposure indicators. The aim of this study was to adapt this existing general toxicokinetic model to three organic solvents, which were methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1,-trichloroethane, and to take into account sex differences. We assessed in a previous human volunteer study the impact of sex on different biomarkers of exposure corresponding to the three organic solvents mentioned above. Results from that study suggested that not only physiological differences between men and women but also differences due to sex hormones levels could influence the toxicokinetics of the solvents. In fact the use of hormonal contraceptive had an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers, suggesting that exogenous sex hormones could influence CYP2E1 enzyme activity. These experimental data were used to calibrate the toxicokinetic models developed in this study. Our results showed that it was possible to use an existing general toxicokinetic model for other compounds. In fact, most of the simulation results showed good agreement with the experimental data obtained for the studied solvents, with a percentage of model predictions that lies within the 95% confidence interval varying from 44.4 to 90%. Results pointed out that for same exposure conditions, men and women can show important differences in urinary levels of biological indicators of exposure. Moreover, when running the models by simulating industrial working conditions, these differences could even be more pronounced. In conclusion, a general and simple toxicokinetic model, adapted for three well known organic solvents, allowed us to show that metabolic parameters can have an important impact on the urinary levels of the corresponding biomarkers. These observations give evidence of an interindividual variablity, an aspect that should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure.

Current status of a model system: the gene Gp-9 and its association with social organization in fire ants.

The Gp-9 gene in fire ants represents an important model system for studying the evolution of social organization in insects as well as a rich source of information relevant to other major evolutionary topics. An important feature of this system is that polymorphism in social organization is completely associated with allelic variation at Gp-9, such that single-queen colonies (monogyne form) include only inhabitants bearing B-like alleles while multiple-queen colonies (polygyne form) additionally include inhabitants bearing b-like alleles. A recent study of this system by Leal and Ishida (2008) made two major claims, the validity and significance of which we examine here. After reviewing existing literature, analyzing the methods and results of Leal and Ishida (2008), and generating new data from one of their study sites, we conclude that their claim that polygyny can occur in Solenopsis invicta in the U.S.A. in the absence of expression of the b-like allele Gp-9(b) is unfounded. Moreover, we argue that available information on insect OBPs (the family of proteins to which GP-9 belongs), on the evolutionary/population genetics of Gp-9, and on pheromonal/behavioral control of fire ant colony queen number fails to support their view that GP-9 plays no role in the chemosensory-mediated communication that underpins regulation of social organization. Our analyses lead us to conclude that there are no new reasons to question the existing consensus view of the Gp-9 system outlined in Gotzek and Ross (2007).