Morphological Diversity and the Roles of Contingency, Chance and Determinism in African Cichlid Radiations

Background: Deterministic evolution, phylogenetic contingency and evolutionary chance each can influence patterns of morphological diversification during adaptive radiation. In comparative studies of replicate radiations, convergence in a common morphospace implicates determinism, whereas non-convergence suggests the importance of contingency or chance. Methodology/Principal Findings: The endemic cichlid fish assemblages of the three African great lakes have evolved similar sets of ecomorphs but show evidence of non-convergence when compared in a common morphospace, suggesting the importance of contingency and/or chance. We then analyzed the morphological diversity of each assemblage independently and compared their axes of diversification in the unconstrained global morphospace. We find that despite differences in phylogenetic composition, invasion history, and ecological setting, the three assemblages are diversifying along parallel axes through morphospace and have nearly identical variance-covariance structures among morphological elements. Conclusions/Significance: By demonstrating that replicate adaptive radiations are diverging along parallel axes, we have shown that non-convergence in the common morphospace is associated with convergence in the global morphospace. Applying these complimentary analyses to future comparative studies will improve our understanding of the relationship between morphological convergence and non-convergence, and the roles of contingency, chance and determinism in driving morphological diversification.

Ice-Core Based Assessment of Historical Anthropogenic Heavy Metal (Cd, Cu, Sb, Zn) Emissions in the Soviet Union

The development of strategies and policies aiming at the reduction of environmental exposure to air pollution requires the assessment of historical emissions. Although anthropogenic emissions from the extended territory of the Soviet Union (SU) considerably influenced concentrations of heavy metals in the Northern Hemisphere, Pb is the only metal with long-term historical emission estimates for this region available, whereas for selected other metals only single values exist. Here we present the first study assessing long-term Cd, Cu, Sb, and Zn emissions in the SU during the period 1935–1991 based on ice-core concentration records from Belukha glacier in the Siberian Altai and emission data from 12 regions in the SU for the year 1980. We show that Zn primarily emitted from the Zn production in Ust-Kamenogorsk (East Kazakhstan) dominated the SU heavy metal emission. Cd, Sb, Zn (Cu) emissions increased between 1935 and the 1970s (1980s) due to expanded non-ferrous metal production. Emissions of the four metals in the beginning of the 1990s were as low as in the 1950s, which we attribute to the economic downturn in industry, changes in technology for an increasing metal recovery from ores, the replacement of coal and oil by gas, and air pollution control.

Sustainable Wastewater Management: Is it Possible to Regulate Micropollution in the Future by Learning from the Past? A Policy Analysis

This paper applies a policy analysis approach to the question of how to effectively regulate micropollution in a sustainable manner. Micropollution is a complex policy problem characterized by a huge number and diversity of chemical substances, as well as various entry paths into the aquatic environment. It challenges traditional water quality management by calling for new technologies in wastewater treatment and behavioral changes in industry, agriculture and civil society. In light of such challenges, the question arises as to how to regulate such a complex phenomenon to ensure water quality is maintained in the future? What can we learn from past experiences in water quality regulation? To answer these questions, policy analysis strongly focuses on the design and choice of policy instruments and the mix of such measures. In this paper, we review instruments commonly used in past water quality regulation. We evaluate their ability to respond to the characteristics of a more recent water quality problem, i.e., micropollution, in a sustainable way. This way, we develop a new framework that integrates both the problem dimension (i.e., causes and effects of a problem) as well as the sustainability dimension (e.g., long-term, cross-sectoral and multi-level) to assess which policy instruments are best suited to regulate micropollution. We thus conclude that sustainability criteria help to identify an appropriate instrument mix of end-of-pipe and source-directed measures to reduce aquatic micropollution.

Monetary Policy in a Portfolio Balance Model with Endogenous Physical Capital

We develop a portfolio balance model with real capital accumulation. The introduction of real capital as an asset as well as a good produced and demanded by firms enriches extant portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. We show that expansionary monetary policy causes exchange rate overshooting, not once, but twice; the secondary repercussion comes through the reaction of firms to changed asset prices and the firms' decisions to invest in real capital. The model sheds further light on the volatility of real and nominal exchange rates, and it suggests that changes in corporate sector profitability may affect exchange rates through portfolio diversification in corporate securities.

Fortalezas y debilidades para un crecimiento sostenido en dos aglomerados de la pampa argentina

La recuperación económica de Argentina desde 2003 impactó favorablemente en las diversas regiones del país, en especial, aquéllas muy vinculadas con el sector industrial y agropecuario de la economía. Entre ellas se destacan: el Aglomerado Gran Rosario (AGR) y el Aglomerado Gran Córdoba (AGCBA), dos de las aglomeraciones urbanas de mayor población después del Gran Buenos Aires. Este trabajo evalúa la dinámica productiva de ambas regiones, analizando las características del crecimiento experimentado en la última década e identificando aquellos aspectos de la estructura productiva que condicionan y/o favorecen la sustentabilidad del mismo. Se asume que un mayor grado de diversificación económica hacia sectores más intensivos en conocimiento es un factor importante para el logro de un crecimiento sostenido. Se observa en el AGCBA una mayor cantidad de variables socioeconómicas que muestran entre 2003 y 2013 una tasa de crecimiento promedio superior al del AGR. Dicho desempeño podría estar asociado a algunas características estructurales como son: la menor diversificación sectorial de la industria, un mayor peso relativo de sectores con uso intensivo de recursos naturales en comparación con sectores intensivos en conocimiento, una participación más alta de actividades “más informales" en el empleo total (construcción, servicio doméstico).

Planktic foraminifera at the Paleocene-Eocene transition in the Antarctic Indian Ocean

Isotopic depth stratification and relative abundance studies of planktic foraminifera at ODP Site 738 reveal three major faunal turnovers during the latest Paleocene and early Eocene, reflecting the climatic and structural changes in the Antarctic surface ocean. Faunal Event 1 occurred near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary and is characterized by a faunal turnover in deep dwellers, decreased relative abundance in intermediate dwellers and increased relative abundance in surface dwellers. This event marks a temporary elimination of the vertical structure in the surface ocean over a period of more than 63,000 years that is apparently associated with the sudden shutdown of the "Antarctic Intermediate Water" production. The appearance of morozovellids before this event suggests that polar warming is the cause for the shutdown in the production of this water mass. At this time warm saline deep water may have formed at low latitudes. Faunal Event 2 occurred near the AP5a/AP5b Subzonal boundary and is characterized by a faunal turnover in deep dwellers with no apparent change in surface and intermediate dwellers. Increased individual size, wall-thickness and relative abundance in deep dwelling chiloguembelinids suggests the formation of a deep oxygen minima in the Antarctic Oceans during the maximum polar warming possibly as a result of upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water. Faunal Event 3 occurred in Subzone AP6 and is characterized by a faunal turnover in surface dwellers and a delayed diversification in deep dwellers. This event marks the onset of Antarctic cooling. A drastic decrease in the delta13C/delta18O values of the deep assemblage in Zone AP7 suggests an intensified thermocline and reduced upwelling following the polar cooling.

Multidisciplinary Learning, Another way of Teaching Maths in Engineering

Multidisciplinary training is widely appreciated in industry and business, and nevertheless usually is not addressed in the early stages of most undergraduate programs. We outline here a multidisciplinary course for undergraduates studying engineering in which mathematics would be the common language, the transverse tool. The goal is motivating students to learn more mathematics and as a result, improve the quality of engineering education. The course would be structured around projects in four branches in engineering: mechanical, electrical, civil and bio-tech. The projects would be chosen among a wide variety of topics in engineering practice selected with the guidance of professional engineers. In these projects mathematics should interact with at least two other basic areas of knowledge in engineering: chemistry, computers science, economics, design or physics.

Coupling time-stepping numerical methods and standard aerodynamics codes for instability analysis of flows in complex geometries

The development of a global instability analysis code coupling a time-stepping approach, as applied to the solution of BiGlobal and TriGlobal instability analysis 1, 2 and finite-volume-based spatial discretization, as used in standard aerodynamics codes is presented. The key advantage of the time-stepping method over matrix-formulation approaches is that the former provides a solution to the computer-storage issues associated with the latter methodology. To-date both approaches are successfully in use to analyze instability in complex geometries, although their relative advantages have never been quantified. The ultimate goal of the present work is to address this issue in the context of spatial discretization schemes typically used in industry. The time-stepping approach of Chiba 3 has been implemented in conjunction with two direct numerical simulation algorithms, one based on the typically-used in this context high-order method and another based on low-order methods representative of those in common use in industry. The two codes have been validated with solutions of the BiGlobal EVP and it has been showed that small errors in the base flow do not have affect significantly the results. As a result, a three-dimensional compressible unsteady second-order code for global linear stability has been successfully developed based on finite-volume spatial discretization and time-stepping method with the ability to study complex geometries by means of unstructured and hybrid meshes

Influential factors in determination of biomass termal susceptibility by termal analysis

Las biomasas almacenadas en silos son potencialmente capaces de absorber oxígeno produciendo reacciones exotérmicas de oxidación. Si el calor producido en estas reacciones no se dispersa adecuadamente, provoca un auto-calentamiento de la materia orgánica que puede ser causa de descomposición e inflamación. En el ámbito de la posible auto-combustión en el almacenamiento y manipulación de las biomasas existen diversos factores que influyen en la susceptibilidad térmica de las biomasas, es decir, en su tendencia a la oxidación y posterior inflamación de la materia. Con el fin de analizar este comportamiento se han estudiado diferentes tipos de biomasas. En este estudio se ha trabajado con biomasas de origen agrícola, forestal y residual con distinta composición química. Las muestras de estudio se han acondicionado mediante distintos tratamientos físicos para valorar la influencia de diferentes factores en su auto-combustión.

Application of protection means against explosions in underground mines

Underground coal mines explosions generally arise from the inflammation of a methane/air mixture. This explosion can also generate a subsequent coal dust explosion. Traditionally such explosions have being fought eliminating one or several of the factors needed by the explosion to take place. Although several preventive measures are taken to prevent explosions, other measures should be considered to reduce the effects or even to extinguish the flame front. Unlike other protection methods that remove one or two of the explosion triangle elements, namely; the ignition source, the oxidizing agent and the fuel, explosion barriers removes all of them: reduces the quantity of coal in suspension, cools the flame front and the steam generated by vaporization removes the oxygen present in the flame. The present paper is essentially based on the comprehensive state-of–the-art of Protective Systems in underground coal mines, and particularly on the application of Explosion Barriers to improve safety level in Spanish coal mining industry. After an exhaustive study of series EN 14591 standards covering explosion prevention and protection in underground mines, authors have proven explosion barriers effectiveness in underground galleries by Full Scale Tests performed in Polish Barbara experimental mine, showing that the barriers can reduce the effects of methane and/or flammable coal dust explosions to a satisfactory safety level.

Kinetics of CO2 absorption into aqueous solutions in CO2

This research has been performed to emphasize about the problem known as ?climate changes? occurring due to the greenhouse gases emissions (Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4),Nitrogen oxides (NOx), Ozone (O3), Chlorofluorocarbons (artificial). Specially, the project will be focused on the CO2 emissions produced mainly from the fossil fuels burning in power plants and other kind of industrial processes. To understand how important the global is warming and therefore the climate change, both the increase of emissions and the evolution of those will be studied in this project drawing conclusions about its effect. The Kyoto Protocol, the most important agreement internationally, signed by a great majority of the industrialized and developed countries, which try to limit the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, will be cited in this project. Taking into account the effects of global warming and applying the international legislation on emissions of greenhouse gases, a number of measures will be exposed, where the CO2 capture will be studied deeply. Three different kind of CO2 capture technologies will be studied, drawing the conclusion that the post-combustion capture, in particular by amine chemical absorption, is the most efficient one.

Using configuration management and product line software paradigms to support the experimentation process in software engineering.

There is no empirical evidence whatsoever to support most of the beliefs on which software construction is based. We do not yet know the adequacy, limits, qualities, costs and risks of the technologies used to develop software. Experimentation helps to check and convert beliefs and opinions into facts. This research is concerned with the replication area. Replication is a key component for gathering empirical evidence on software development that can be used in industry to build better software more efficiently. Replication has not been an easy thing to do in software engineering (SE) because the experimental paradigm applied to software development is still immature. Nowadays, a replication is executed mostly using a traditional replication package. But traditional replication packages do not appear, for some reason, to have been as effective as expected for transferring information among researchers in SE experimentation. The trouble spot appears to be the replication setup, caused by version management problems with materials, instruments, documents, etc. This has proved to be an obstacle to obtaining enough details about the experiment to be able to reproduce it as exactly as possible. We address the problem of information exchange among experimenters by developing a schema to characterize replications. We will adapt configuration management and product line ideas to support the experimentation process. This will enable researchers to make systematic decisions based on explicit knowledge rather than assumptions about replications. This research will output a replication support web environment. This environment will not only archive but also manage experimental materials flexibly enough to allow both similar and differentiated replications with massive experimental data storage. The platform should be accessible to several research groups working together on the same families of experiments.

Software industry experiments: a systematic literature review

There is no specialized survey of experiments conducted in the software industry. Goal: Identify the major features of software industry experiments, such as time distribution, independent and dependent variables, subject types, design types and challenges. Method: Systematic literature review, taking the form of a scoping study. Results: We have identified 10 experiments and five quasi-experiments up to July 2012. Most were run as of 2003. The main features of these studies are that they test technologies related to quality and management and analyse outcomes related to effectiveness and effort. Most experiments have a factorial design. The major challenges faced by experimenters are to minimize the cost of running the experiment for the company and to schedule the experiment so as not to interfere with production processes.

Real time optimization in chemical process: evaluation of strategies, improvements and industrial application.

The increasing economic competition drives the industry to implement tools that improve their processes efficiencies. The process automation is one of these tools, and the Real Time Optimization (RTO) is an automation methodology that considers economic aspects to update the process control in accordance with market prices and disturbances. Basically, RTO uses a steady-state phenomenological model to predict the process behavior, and then, optimizes an economic objective function subject to this model. Although largely implemented in industry, there is not a general agreement about the benefits of implementing RTO due to some limitations discussed in the present work: structural plant/model mismatch, identifiability issues and low frequency of set points update. Some alternative RTO approaches have been proposed in literature to handle the problem of structural plant/model mismatch. However, there is not a sensible comparison evaluating the scope and limitations of these RTO approaches under different aspects. For this reason, the classical two-step method is compared to more recently derivative-based methods (Modifier Adaptation, Integrated System Optimization and Parameter estimation, and Sufficient Conditions of Feasibility and Optimality) using a Monte Carlo methodology. The results of this comparison show that the classical RTO method is consistent, providing a model flexible enough to represent the process topology, a parameter estimation method appropriate to handle measurement noise characteristics and a method to improve the sample information quality. At each iteration, the RTO methodology updates some key parameter of the model, where it is possible to observe identifiability issues caused by lack of measurements and measurement noise, resulting in bad prediction ability. Therefore, four different parameter estimation approaches (Rotational Discrimination, Automatic Selection and Parameter estimation, Reparametrization via Differential Geometry and classical nonlinear Least Square) are evaluated with respect to their prediction accuracy, robustness and speed. The results show that the Rotational Discrimination method is the most suitable to be implemented in a RTO framework, since it requires less a priori information, it is simple to be implemented and avoid the overfitting caused by the Least Square method. The third RTO drawback discussed in the present thesis is the low frequency of set points update, this problem increases the period in which the process operates at suboptimum conditions. An alternative to handle this problem is proposed in this thesis, by integrating the classic RTO and Self-Optimizing control (SOC) using a new Model Predictive Control strategy. The new approach demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the problem of low frequency of set points updates, improving the economic performance. Finally, the practical aspects of the RTO implementation are carried out in an industrial case study, a Vapor Recompression Distillation (VRD) process located in Paulínea refinery from Petrobras. The conclusions of this study suggest that the model parameters are successfully estimated by the Rotational Discrimination method; the RTO is able to improve the process profit in about 3%, equivalent to 2 million dollars per year; and the integration of SOC and RTO may be an interesting control alternative for the VRD process.

Returns from Income Strategies in Rural Poland. Factor Markets Working Document No. 64, August 2013

In order to stabilise and improve their income situation, rural households are strongly encouraged to diversify their activities both within and outside the agricultural sector. Often, however, this advice is only moderately pursued. This paper addresses issues of rural household income diversification in the case of Poland. It investigates returns from rural household income strategies using propensity score matching methods and extensive datasets spanning 1998-2008. Results suggest that returns from combining farm and off-farm activities were lower than returns from concentrating on farming or on self-employment outside agriculture. This differential is stable over time although returns from diversification have relatively improved after Poland’s accession to the EU. This is also visible in the fact that since 2006 returns from combining farm and off-farm activities have evened with returns from relying solely on hired off-farm labour, thus smoothing the difference observed before the accession. Further, over the analysed period, households pursuing the diversification strategy performed better than those relying solely on unearned income. Finally, in general, the income in households combining farm and off-farm activities was higher than in those combining two off-farm income sources.