Mean first-passage time of continuous non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise

An equation for mean first-passage times of non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise is derived through an appropriate backward integro-differential equation. The equation is solved in a Bourret-like approximation. In a weak-noise bistable situation, non-Markovian effects are taken into account by an effective diffusion coefficient. In this situation, our results compare satisfactorily with other approaches and experimental data.

Stochastic processes induced by dichotomous markov noise: Some exact dynamical results

Stochastic processes defined by a general Langevin equation of motion where the noise is the non-Gaussian dichotomous Markov noise are studied. A non-FokkerPlanck master differential equation is deduced for the probability density of these processes. Two different models are exactly solved. In the second one, a nonequilibrium bimodal distribution induced by the noise is observed for a critical value of its correlation time. Critical slowing down does not appear in this point but in another one.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

The Effect of a threshold proportional reinsurance strategy on ruin probabilities

[spa] En un modelo de Poisson compuesto, definimos una estrategia de reaseguro proporcional de umbral : se aplica un nivel de retención k1 siempre que las reservas sean inferiores a un determinado umbral b, y un nivel de retención k2 en caso contrario. Obtenemos la ecuación íntegro-diferencial para la función Gerber-Shiu, definida en Gerber-Shiu -1998- en este modelo, que nos permite obtener las expresiones de la probabilidad de ruina y de la transformada de Laplace del momento de ruina para distintas distribuciones de la cuantía individual de los siniestros. Finalmente presentamos algunos resultados numéricos.

Mean first-passage time of continuous non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise

An equation for mean first-passage times of non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise is derived through an appropriate backward integro-differential equation. The equation is solved in a Bourret-like approximation. In a weak-noise bistable situation, non-Markovian effects are taken into account by an effective diffusion coefficient. In this situation, our results compare satisfactorily with other approaches and experimental data.

External Fluctuations in Front Propagation

We study the effects of external noise in a one-dimensional model of front propagation. Noise is introduced through the fluctuations of a control parameter leading to a multiplicative stochastic partial differential equation. Analytical and numerical results for the front shape and velocity are presented. The linear-marginal-stability theory is found to increase its range of validity in the presence of external noise. As a consequence noise can stabilize fronts not allowed by the deterministic equation.

Active strain and activation models in cardiac electromechanics

We present a model for mechanical activation of the cardiac tissue depending on the evolution of the transmembrane electrical potential and certain gating/ionic variables that are available in most of electrophysiological descriptions of the cardiac membrane. The basic idea consists in adding to the chosen ionic model one ordinary differential equation for the kinetics of the mechanical activation function. A relevant example illustrates the desired properties of the proposed model, such as delayed muscle contraction and correct magnitude of the muscle fibers' shortening.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

A simple model to describe the thixotropic behavior of paints.

We propose a simple rheological model to describe the thixotropic behavior of paints, since the classical hysteresis area, which is usually used, is not enough to evaluate thixotropy. The model is based on the assumption that viscosity is a direct measure of the structural level of the paint. The model depends on two equations: the Cross-Carreau equation to describe the equilibrium viscosity and a second order kinetic equation to express the time dependence of viscosity. Two characteristic thixotropic times are differentiated: one for the net structure breakdown, which is defined as a power law function of shear rate, and an other for the net structure buildup, which is not dependent on the shear rate. The knowledge of both kinetic processes can be used to improve the quality and applicability of paints. Five representative commercial protective marine paints are tested. They are based on chlorinated rubber, acrylic, alkyd, vinyl, and epoxy resins. The temperature dependence of the rheological behavior is also studied with the temperature ranging from 5 ºC to 35 ºC. It is found that the paints exhibit both shear thinning and thixotropic behavior. The model fits satisfactorily the thixotropy of the studied paints. It is also able to predict the thixotropy dependence on temperature. Both viscosity and the degree of thixotropy increase as the temperature decreases.

Absoluuttisten solmukoordinaattien menetelmä kuorimaisten kappaleiden mallinnuksessa

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää nopeasti konvergoiva kuorielementti epälineaarisesti joustavien kappaleiden analysointiin. Kuorielementti perustuu absoluuttisten solmukoordinaattien menetelmään ja se hyödyntää kaarevuuden kuvausta elastisten voimien määrityksessä. Kehitettyä elementtiä verrattiin kontinuumimekaniikalla kehitettyyn kuorielementtiin ja kaupallisen elementtimenetelmän kuorielementtiin. Yksinkertaisimman kuormitustapauksen tuloksia verrattiin teknisen taivutusteorian mukaiseen analyyttiseen ratkaisuun. Staattisten testien tulokset tässä työssä kehitetyllä kuorielementillä vastasivat hyvin kaupallisella elementtimenetelmällä saatuja tuloksia. Deformaatioiden ollessa geometrisesti lineaarisella alueella, kehitetyllä kuorielementillä saadut tulokset vastasivat paremmin sekä analyyttistä ratkaisua että kaupallisella elementtimenetelmällä saatuja tuloksia kuin aiemman kontinuumimekaniikkaan perustuvan kuorielementin tulokset. Kehitetyn kuorielementin ongelmana verrattuna kontinuumimekaniikkaan perustuvaan elementtiin on monimutkaisempi kinematiikan kuvaus. Tästä on seurauksena laskenta-ajan huomattava kasvaminen. Jatkossa kannattaisi keskittyä numeeristen ratkaisumenetelmien kehittämiseen.

Sobre a primeira lei da termodinâmica: as diferenciais do calor e do trabalho

We treat some subtleties concerning the First Law of Thermodynamics and discuss the inherent difficulties, namely the interpretation of the heat and the work differentials. By proposing a new differential equation for the First Law, which is written using both system and neighborhood variables, we overcome the mentioned difficulties and establish a criterion for the definition of heat and work.

Remoção de íons Pb2+ de solução de bateria automotiva por caulinita modificada com óxido de manganês

Nine absorbents were prepared using a mixture of Amazonian kaolinite and MnO2 at three temperatures (600, 700 and 900 ºC) in order to retain Pb2+ ions contained in the battery solutions. The batch experiments carried out with the batteries used water for 3 h and the kinetic isotherm was fitted with the pseudo-second order Lagergren equation. Findings show that synthesized adsorbents AD4, AD5 and AD7 performed well in reducing the Pb2+ ion content from 0.36 to 0.00 mg g-1. The better performance for removing the Pb2+ ions occurred for adsorbents synthesized in the temperature range from 600 to 700 ºC.

A temperature predicting model for manufacturing processes requiring coiling

A model for predicting temperature evolution for automatic controling systems in manufacturing processes requiring the coiling of bars in the transfer table is presented. Although the method is of a general nature, the presentation in this work refers to the manufacturing of steel plates in hot rolling mills. The predicting strategy is based on a mathematical model of the evolution of temperature in a coiling and uncoiling bar and is presented in the form of a parabolic partial differential equation for a shape changing domain. The mathematical model is solved numerically by a space discretization via geometrically adaptive finite elements which accomodate the change in shape of the domain, using a computationally novel treatment of the resulting thermal contact problem due to coiling. Time is discretized according to a Crank-Nicolson scheme. Since the actual physical process takes less time than the time required by the process controlling computer to solve the full mathematical model, a special predictive device was developed, in the form of a set of least squares polynomials, based on the off-line numerical solution of the mathematical model.

Stochastic approximation methods in stochastic optimization

Stochastic approximation methods for stochastic optimization are considered. Reviewed the main methods of stochastic approximation: stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm, Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm and adaptive rules for them, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Suggested the model and the solution of the retailer's profit optimization problem and considered an application of the SQG-algorithm for the optimization problems with objective functions given in the form of ordinary differential equation.