Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Anàlisi de les variables relacionades amb la reincidència dels agressors sexuals. Estudi d’una mostra d’interns de les presons de Catalunya

Les taxes de reincidència dels delinqüents sexuals son, en general més baixes que les de la resta de delinqüents. No obstant, hi ha una part que tenen una major probabilitat de tornar a delinquir i que tenen unes característiques de risc que els diferencien dels altres. S’ha dut a terme un estudi retrospectiu amb la totalitat dels delinqüents sexuals que van sortir de les presons de Catalunya entre l’1 de gener de 1998 i el 31 de desembre de 2001. El període de seguiment promig és de sis anys i nou mesos. S’han avaluat les taxes de reincidència en delictes sexuals, delictes no sexuals (generals) i en qualsevol tipus de delicte. Un 5,7 % va tornar a delinquir en delictes sexuals, el 13,2 dels subjectes va reincidir en delictes no sexuals i el 18,8 % va tornar a cometre qualsevol tipus de delicte. Entre les variables de risc, el nombre de delictes sexuals pels que compleixen condemna abans de sortir en llibertat i el tipus de víctima influeixen en la reincidència sexual, encara que respecte a la segona no es va poder calcular la significació estadística. També van tenir un pes significatiu l’edat del primer ingrés i la versatilitat delictiva. Pel que fa a la reincidència general, les variables relacionades amb la carrera delictiva i trets antisocials, a més de les condicions de la condemna, van ser les variables de més influencia. No s’ha trobat relació entre el tractament i la reincidència. Posteriorment a l’estudi d’aquestes variables van ser entrevistats vuit dels 11 subjectes que havien reincidit en delictes sexuals. A partir de l’anàlisi de les entrevistes es va elaborar un sistema de classificació dels principals components del procés del delicte. De la revisió del procés de cada subjecte apareixen dos perfils diferenciats.

Análisis de las variables relacionadas con la reincidencia de los agresores sexuales. Estudio de una muestra de internos de las prisiones de Catalunya

Con esta investigación se pretende llegar a concretar aquellos factores que pueden tener relación con la reincidencia de los delincuentes sexuales que salen de los centros penitenciarios de Catalunya. Estas conclusiones han de permitir en el futuro enriquecer los programas de tratamiento mediante la inclusión de contenidos y el establecimiento de criterios de individualización de la intervención.

L’atenció a les víctimes de violència de gènere: Un estudi de les variables rellevants per a la intervenció psicosocial

Aquesta investigació s’inscriu dins del marc de l’atenció a les víctimes de violència de gènere que ofereix l’oficina d’atenció a la víctima de Lleida, depenent del Departament de Justícia de la Generalitat de Catalunya. L’entrada en vigor de la llei 27/03 reguladora de l’Ordre de Protecció de les víctimes de violència domèstica, així com les últimes modificacions de textos legals han pogut propiciar, junt amb el ressò social d’aquest fenomen, un canvi en el perfil de les víctimes de violència de gènere que s’atenen en aquestes oficines, fonamentalment pel que fa a variables de caire sociodemogràfic, com ara l’edat, la situació personal, familiar, laboral, etc. Encara que la major part de les víctimes ateses són més grans de 30 anys, al voltant d’una tercera part té menys de 30 anys. No s’ha trobat, però, que aquestes víctimes denunciïn més maltractament psíquic que físic (que implícitament porta aparellat maltractament psíquic), encara que triguen menys temps a denunciar el maltractament que les víctimes més grans. D’altra banda, es constata que només algunes de les variables sociodemogràfiques estudiades, en especial la situació laboral de les víctimes, la relació que mantenen amb l’agressor i el fet de tenir o no fills amb ells, resulten rellevants en relació a les mesures judicials adoptades com a conseqüència de la denúncia. La relació d’aquestes variables sociodemogràfiques amb les necessitats d’intervenció no resulten tan clares, molt probablement per l’efecte d’altres variables moduladores no tingudes en compte en el disseny com variables rellevants.

Ochlerotatus albifasciatus in rain pools of Buenos Aires: seasonal dynamics and relation to environmental variables

The immature stages of Ochlerotatus albifasciatus develop in temporary pools. The present study aims at evaluating the seasonal dynamics of the aquatic stages of this mosquito, also analyzing the relationship among their presence and breeding success to some relevant climatic and environmental variables in the ephemeral rain pools of an urban park. Nineteen cohorts of O. albifasciatus that developed synchronously after rain events were recorded in all seasons. The proportions of mosquito-positive pools were significantly higher during the fall-winter period than in the spring-summer months (p < 0.001). The presence of this mosquito species was positively related to the amount of rain (p < 0.001), whereas negatively correlated to air temperature (p < 0.05) within a 5.2 to 29.7ºC range. The distribution of the number of cohorts per pool throughout the year was grouped (variance/mean: 3.96), indicating that these habitats were not equally suitable as breeding sites. The immature stages of O. albifasciatus were detected in pools belonging to all of the categories of surface area, depth, duration, vegetation cover, and insolation. However, the proportion of pools where immature mosquitoes were detected was positively and significantly related to surface, depth, duration, and vegetation cover. On the other hand, the proportion of mosquito-positive pools was higher at an intermediate insolation degree. Our results suggest that although preimaginal stages were present in all seasons, high temperatures may be unfavorable to larval development, and substrate vegetation may regulate water temperature. The positive relationship between the proportion of mosquito-positive pools and pool size and duration might reflect a strategy of O. albifasciatus to accomplish immature development.

Variables asociadas a necrosis pancreática en pacientes con Pancreatitis Aguda Grave.

Hem fet un estudi retrospectiu de 73 adults amb pancreatitis aguda greu recollint variables analítiques i radiològiques a l'ingrés i a les 48h i relacionant-les amb l'existència de necrosi pancreàtica a la TC. Les variables relacionades amb la necrosi van ser: edat, leucòcits, VSG, TP, INR, glucèmia, urea, creatinina, proteïnes, albúmina, LDH, calci, PCR i presència de vessament pleural a la Rx. D'aquestes, el vessament pleural a l'ingrés i la hipoalbuminemia, les xifres altes de LDH i PCR a les 48 hores es van relacionar significativament, la qual cosa permet identificar pacients amb major risc en els quals instaurar mesures precoces

Trypanosoma cruzi strains isolated from human, vector, and animal reservoir in the same endemic region in Mexico and typed as T. cruzi I, discrete typing unit 1 exhibit considerable biological diversity

In this study, three strains of Trypanosoma cruzi were isolated at the same time and in the same endemic region in Mexico from a human patient with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (RyC-H); vector (Triatoma barberi) (RyC-V); and rodent reservoir (Peromyscus peromyscus) (RyC-R). The three strains were characterized by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis, random amplified polymorphic DNA, and by pathological profiles in experimental animals (biodemes). Based on the analysis of genetic markers the three parasite strains were typed as belonging to T. cruzi I major group, discrete typing unit 1. The pathological profile of RyC-H and RyC-V strains indicated medium virulence and low mortality and, accordingly, the strains should be considered as belonging to biodeme Type III. On the other hand, the parasites from RyC-R strain induced more severe inflammatory processes and high mortality (> 40%) and were considered as belonging to biodeme Type II. The relationship between genotypes and biological characteristics in T. cruzi strains is still debated and not clearly understood. An expert committee recommended in 1999 that Biodeme Type III would correspond to T. cruzi I group, whereas Biodeme Type II, to T. cruzi II group. Our findings suggest that, at least for Mexican isolates, this correlation does not stand and that biological characteristics such as pathogenicity and virulence could be determined by factors different from those identified in the genotypic characterization

Tècniques de Webmetria : anàlisi de logs i Google Analytics per a la obtenció de variables mètriques del web de la Biblioteca Virtual de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC)

This presentation aims to make understandable the use and application context of two Webometrics techniques, the logs analysis and Google Analytics, which currently coexist in the Virtual Library of the UOC. In this sense, first of all it is provided a comprehensive introduction to webometrics and then it is analysed the case of the UOC's Virtual Library focusing on the assimilation of these techniques and the considerations underlying their use, and covering in a holistic way the process of gathering, processing and data exploitation. Finally there are also provided guidelines for the interpretation of the metric variables obtained.

Intermediary and structural determinants of early childhood health in Colombia: exploring the role of communities

This study examines how structural determinants influence intermediary factors of child health inequities and how they operate through the communities where children live. In particular, we explore individual, family and community level characteristics associated with a composite indicator that quantitatively measures intermediary determinants of early childhood health in Colombia. We use data from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Adopting the conceptual framework of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), three dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: behavioural factors, psychosocial factors and health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables and take into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations are employed in the index construction. Weighted multilevel models are used to examine community effects. The results show that the effect of household’s SES is attenuated when community characteristics are included, indicating the importance that the level of community development may have in mediating individual and family characteristics. The findings indicate that there is a significant variance in intermediary determinants of child health between-community, especially for those determinants linked to the health system, even after controlling for individual, family and community characteristics. These results likely reflect that whilst the community context can exert a greater influence on intermediary factors linked directly to health, in the case of psychosocial factors and the parent’s behaviours, the family context can be more important. This underlines the importance of distinguishing between community and family intervention programmes.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Interpretation of wind components as compositional variables

The classical statistical study of the wind speed in the atmospheric surface layer is madegenerally from the analysis of the three habitual components that perform the wind data,that is, the component W-E, the component S-N and the vertical component,considering these components independent.When the goal of the study of these data is the Aeolian energy, so is when wind isstudied from an energetic point of view and the squares of wind components can beconsidered as compositional variables. To do so, each component has to be divided bythe module of the corresponding vector.In this work the theoretical analysis of the components of the wind as compositionaldata is presented and also the conclusions that can be obtained from the point of view ofthe practical applications as well as those that can be derived from the application ofthis technique in different conditions of weather

Discrete and continuous compositions

This paper examines a dataset which is modeled well by thePoisson-Log Normal process and by this process mixed with LogNormal data, which are both turned into compositions. Thisgenerates compositional data that has zeros without any need forconditional models or assuming that there is missing or censoreddata that needs adjustment. It also enables us to model dependenceon covariates and within the composition

Análisis de las principales variables determinantes de la evolución de la mortalidad por demencias en Andalucía.

BACKGROUND The dementias are a cause of mortality have increased over the last years. Therefore is important to analyze the variables more related to its development in Andalusia between 1999 and 2010. METHODS With the deaths of 60 and over by dementia from Andalusia Statistical Institute and the populations from corresponding years, are estimated crude mortality rates, standardized and age-specific; by joinpoint regression was calculated percentages annual change; and also, with the population estimates by marital status and deaths was calculated crude rates and standardized for age, sex and marital status. RESULTS The standardized mortality rates increased from 124.8 to 161.0 deaths per 100,000 in women and 110.3 to 147.7 in men, the annual increase was 4.2% and 3.8% in women and men. The women died more than men with a standardized rate ratio between 1.08 and 1.29. Age was the variable that determined mortality. CONCLUSIONS Mortality from dementia in Andalusia has increased over the past 12 years and will continue to increase with the consequent social and health impacts posed by these diseases, configured as a major health problem.

Validation de la version française de l'échelle de contrôle de Levenson (IPC), influence de variables démographiques et de la personnalité

We have examined the internal validity of the Levenson's locus of control scales (IPC, Internal, Powerful others and Chances), translated by Loas et al. (1994). The impact of different demographic variables on the Levenson's locus of control scales was assessed. After, we studied the relation between the IPC scales and the NEO PI R, personality inventory that measures the big five. A large sample (n=200) of subjects of different age, gender and profession and a sample of Swiss students (n=161) responding anonymously were used. The reliability of the IPC scale is acceptable. The analyses of the impact of the demographic variables show that gender and level of education have an influence on the I (intern) scale. Age, gender, level of education and profession have an impact on the P (powerful others) scale. The analyses of the relationship between locus of control and personality showed that there was a negative correlation between I (intern) and Neuroticism and a positive correlation between I and Extraversion and Consciousness. The P (powerful others) scale correlate positively with Neuroticism and negatively with Openness and Agreability. The C scale (chance) correlate positively with Neuroticism. Our study also gives the researchers and the practitioner a reference score table according to the gender, the age, the level of education and the profession.

El espacio como producto social: variables arqueológicas para un análisis de la organización social en prehistoria

El espacio social es un concepto ambiguo cuyo componente material está determinado por el carácter del componente social, puesto que la organización de los objetos en el espacio y el espacio mismo, responden a las normas sociales del comportamiento humano. Partimos de la premisa que los residuos generados durante el proceso de producción y del consumo tienden a tener una distribución relativamente regular en el espacio físico. La ausencia de la aleatoriedad en la dispersión de estos restos solo significa que habían sido acumulados y depositados como restos de acciones previamente planificadas no-aleatoriamente. En este trabajo planteamos estudiar la organización y la producción del espacio social de una sociedad cazadora-recolectora concreta – la sociedad yámana - a través del análisis de las actividades cotidianas que figuran en las fuentes etnográficas y en el registro arqueológico. Con este fin creamos una metodología de trabajo interdisciplinaria, basada en un enfoque etnoarqueológico, y a través del estudio de las fuentes etnográficas, los trabajos etnoarqueológicos previos y el registro arquelógico concreto, descubrimos cuáles son las posibilidades y limitaciones de este tipo de estudios. Pudimos reconocer la regularidad espacial de los procesos de producción y reproducción social y a resolver algunas preguntas acerca del estudio de la organización social en prehistoria trabajando con los datos etnoarqueológicos obtenidos en los yacimientos Lanashuaia y Túnel VII (Tierra del Fuego, Argentina), analizando el registro extraido y trabajado en varias campañas de excavaciones arqueológicas en ultimos 25 años. El presente trabajo al fondo es un experimento etnoarqueológico estándar: partiendo de la observación etnográfica registramos unas recurrencias específicas entre algunas variables (por ejemplo: mujer/lugar/tipo de trabajo), intentamos extraer las variables definitorias de esas recurrencias, y finalmente las buscamos en el espacio definido arqueológicamente.