The impact of heat waves on children's health : a systematic review

Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heatwaves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children’s health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: “heatwave”, “heat wave”, “child health”, “morbidity”, “hospital admission”, “emergency department visit”, “family practice”, “primary health care”, “death” and “mortality”. Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children’s health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children’s health perspective, identifying the best measure of children’s exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children’s birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children’s disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

Radiative and total heat transfer measurements to a Titan Explorer model

Radiative and total heat transfer at the flow stagnation point of a 1:40.8 binary scaled model of the Titan Explorer vehicle were measured in the X3 expansion tube. Results from the current study illustrated that with the addition of CH4 into a N2 test gas radiative heat transfer could be detected. For a test gas of 5% CH4 and 95% N2, simulating an atmospheric model for Titanic aerocapture, approximately 4% of the experimentally measured total stagnation point heat transfer was found to be due to radiation. This was in comparison to < 1% measured for a test gas of pure nitrogen. When scaled to the flight vehicle, experimental results indicate a 64% contribution of radiation (test gas 5% CH4/95% N2). Previous numerical results however have predicted this contribution to be between 80-92%. Thus, experimental results from the current study suggest that numerical analyses are over-predicting the radiative heat transfer on the flight vehicle.

Heat transfer measurements on the first experimental layer of the FIRE II reentry vehicle in expansion tubes

The present study focused on simulating a trajectory point towards the end of the first experimental heatshield of the FIRE II vehicle, at a total flight time of 1639.53s. Scale replicas were sized according to binary scaling and instrumented with thermocouples for testing in the X1 expansion tube, located at The University of Queensland. Correlation of flight to experimental data was achieved through the separation, and independent treatment of the heat modes. Preliminary investigation indicates that the absolute value of radiant surface flux is conserved between two binary scaled models, whereas convective heat transfer increases with the length scale. This difference in the scaling techniques result in the overall contribution of radiative heat transfer diminishing to less than 1% in expansion tubes from a flight value of approximately 9-17%. From empirical correlation's it has been shown that the St √Re number decreases, under special circumstances, in expansion tubes by the percentage radiation present on the flight vehicle. Results obtained in this study give a strong indication that the relative radiative heat transfer contribution in the expansion tube tests is less than that in flight, supporting the analysis that the absolute value remains constant with binary scaling.

Are in vitro estimates of cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate sensitive to assay geometry?

Cells respond to various biochemical and physical cues during wound–healing and tumour progression. In vitro assays used to study these processes are typically conducted in one particular geometry and it is unclear how the assay geometry affects the capacity of cell populations to spread, or whether the relevant mechanisms, such as cell motility and cell proliferation, are somehow sensitive to the geometry of the assay. In this work we use a circular barrier assay to characterise the spreading of cell populations in two different geometries. Assay 1 describes a tumour–like geometry where a cell population spreads outwards into an open space. Assay 2 describes a wound–like geometry where a cell population spreads inwards to close a void. We use a combination of discrete and continuum mathematical models and automated image processing methods to obtain independent estimates of the effective cell diffusivity, D, and the effective cell proliferation rate, λ. Using our parameterised mathematical model we confirm that our estimates of D and λ accurately predict the time–evolution of the location of the leading edge and the cell density profiles for both assay 1 and assay 2. Our work suggests that the effective cell diffusivity is up to 50% lower for assay 2 compared to assay 1, whereas the effective cell proliferation rate is up to 30% lower for assay 2 compared to assay 1.

Exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis among outdoor workers in Guangzhou, China

Objectives: To assess the impact of exposure to ambient heat on urolithiasis among outdoor workers in a subtropical city of China. Methods: The 2003–2010 health check data of a shipbuilding company in Guangzhou, China were acquired. 190 cases and 760 matched controls were involved in this study. We assessed the relationship between exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis for different occupations using conditional logistic regression. Results: Spray painters were most likely to develop urolithiasis (OR = 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7, 11.4), followed by smelter workers (OR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.8, 9.2), welders (OR = 3.7; 95% CI: 1.9, 7.2), production security and quality inspectors (OR = 2.7; 95% CI: 1.4, 3.0), and assemblers (OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 4.3). Overall, outdoor workers were more likely to present with urolithiasis compared with indoor employees (p b 0.05). In addition, workers with longer cumulative exposure time (OR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) and abnormal blood pressure (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.5) had higher risk for urolithiasis. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a significant association between exposure to ambient heat and urolithiasis among outdoor working populations. Public health intervention strategies should be developed to specifically target outdoor occupations.

Similarity solutions for flow and heat transfer of non-Newtonian fluid over a stretching surface

Similarity solutions are carried out for flow of power law non-Newtonian fluid film on unsteady stretching surface subjected to constant heat flux. Free convection heat transfer induces thermal boundary layer within a semi-infinite layer of Boussinesq fluid. The nonlinear coupled partial differential equations (PDE) governing the flow and the boundary conditions are converted to a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) using two-parameter groups. This technique reduces the number of independent variables by two, and finally the obtained ordinary differential equations are solved numerically for the temperature and velocity using the shooting method. The thermal and velocity boundary layers are studied by the means of Prandtl number and non-Newtonian power index plotted in curves.

Heat of formation of the hydroperoxyl radical HOO via negative ion studies

We present a determination of Delta(f)H(298)(HOO) based upon a negative. ion thermodynamic cycle. The photoelectron spectra of HOO- and DOO- were used to measure the molecular electron affinities (EAs). In a separate experiment, a tandem flowing afterglow-selected ion flow tube (FA-SIFT) was used to measure the forward and reverse rate constants for HOO- + HCdropCH reversible arrow HOOH + HCdropC(-) at 298 K, which gave a value for Delta(acid)H(298)(HOO-H). The experiments yield the following values: EA(HOO) = 1.078 +/- 0.006 eV; T-0((X) over tilde HOO - (A) over tilde HOO) = 0.872 +/- 0.007 eV; EA(DOO) = 1.077 +/- 0.005 eV; T-0((X) over tilde DOO - (A) over tilde DOO) = 0.874 +/- 0.007 eV; Delta(acid)G(298)(HOO-H) = 369.5 +/- 0.4 kcal mol(-1); and Delta(acid)H(298)(HOO-H) = 376.5 +/- 0.4 kcal mol(-1). The acidity/EA thermochemical cycle yields values for the bond enthalpies of DH298(HOO-H) = 87.8 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1) and Do(HOO-H) = 86.6 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1). We recommend the following values for the heats of formation of the hydroperoxyl radical: Delta(f)H(298)(HOO) = 3.2 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1) and Delta(f)H(0)(HOO) = 3.9 +/- 0.5 kcal mol(-1); we recommend that these values supersede those listed in the current NIST-JANAF thermochemical tables.

Magnetic convection heat transfer in an open ended enclosure filled with paramagnetic fluids

Numerical simulations of thermomagnetic convection of paramagnetic fluids placed in a micro-gravity condition (g nearly 0) and under a uniform vertical gradient magnetic field in an open ended square enclosure with ramp heating temperature condition applied on a vertical wall is investigated in this study. In presence of the strong magnetic gradient field thermal convection of the paramagnetic fluid might take place even in a zero-gravity environment as a direct consequence of temperature differences occurring within the fluid. The thermal boundary layer develops adjacent to the hot wall as soon as the ramp temperature condition is applied on it. There are two scenario that can be observed based on the ramp heating time. The steady state of the thermal boundary layer can be reached before the ramp time is finished or vice versa. If the ramp time is larger than the quasi-steady time then the thermal boundary layer is in a quasi-steady mode with convection balancing conduction after the quasi-steady time. Further increase of the heat input simply accelerates the flow to maintain the proper thermal balance. Finally, the boundary layer becomes completely steady state when the ramp time is finished. Effects of magnetic Rayleigh number, Prandtl number and paramagnetic fluid parameter on the flow pattern and heat transfer are presented.

The heat shock protein 90 inhibitor, 17-allylamino-17- demethoxygeldanamycin, enhances osteoclast formation and potentiates bone metastasis of a human breast cancer cell line

Breast cancer metastasis to the bone occurs frequently, causing numerous complications including severe pain, fracture, hypercalcemia, and paralysis. Despite its prevalence and severity, few effective therapies exist. To address this, we examined whether the heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) inhibitor, 17-allylamino-17-demethoxygeldanamycin (17-AAG), would be efficacious in inhibiting breast cancer metastasis to bone. Utilizing the human breast cancer subline, MDA-MB-231SA, previously in vivo selected for its enhanced ability to generate osteolytic bone lesions, we determined that 17-AAG potently inhibited its in vitro proliferation and migration. Moreover, 17-AAG significantly reduced MDA-MB-231SA tumor growth in the mammary-fat pad of nude mice. Despite these findings, 17-AAG enhanced the incidence of bone metastasis and osteolytic lesions following intracardiac inoculation in the nude mouse. Consistent with these findings, 17-AAG enhanced osteoclast formation 2- to 4-fold in mouse bone marrow/osteoblast cocultures, receptor activator of nuclear factor κB ligand (BANKL)-stimulated bone marrow, and RAW264.7 cell models of in vitro osteoclastogenesis. Moreover, the drug enhanced osteoclastogenesis in human cord blood progenitor cells, demonstrating that its effects were not limited to mouse models. In addition to 17-AAG, other Hsp90 inhibitors, such as radicicol and herbimycin A, also enhanced osteoclastogenesis. A pro-osteolytic action of 17-AAG independent of tumor presence was also determined in vivo, in which 17-AAG-treated tumor-naive mice had reduced trabecular bone volume with an associated increase in osteoclast number. Thus, HSP90 inhibitors can stimulate osteoclast formation, which may underlie the increased incidence of osteolysis and skeletal tumor incidence causedby 17-AAG in vivo. These data suggest an important contraindication to the Hsp90 targeted cancer therapy currently undergoing clinical trial.

Heat transfer analysis of viscous incompressible fluid by combined natural convection and radiation in an open cavity

The effect of radiation on natural convection of Newtonian fluid contained in an open cavity is investigated in this study. The governing partial differential equations are solved numerically using the Alternate Direct Implicit method together with the Successive Over Relaxation method. The study is focused on studying the flow pattern and the convective and radiative heat transfer rates are studied for different values of radiation parameters namely, the optical thickness of the fluid, scattering albedo, and the Planck number. It was found that in the optically thin limit, an increase in the optical thickness of the fluid raises the temperature and radiation heat transfer of the fluid. However, a further increase in the optical thickness decreases the radiative heat transfer rate due to increase in the energy level of the fluid, which ultimately reduces the total heat transfer rate within the fluid.

Semiparametric estimates of the supply and demand effects of disability on labor force participation

This paper modifies and uses the semiparametric methods of Ichimura and Lee (1991) on standard cross-section data to decompose the effect of disability on labor force participation into a demand and a supply effect. It shows that straightforward use of Ichimura and Lee leads to meaningless results while imposing monotonicity on the unknown function leads to substantial results. The paper finds that supply effects dominate the demand effects of disability.

New estimates for CRNA vacancies

A national survey to estimate vacancy rates of Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs) in hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers was conducted in 2007. Poisson regression methods were used to improve the precision of the estimates. A significant increase in the estimated vacancy rate was reported for hospitals relative to an earlier study from 2002, although it is important to note that there were some methodological differences between the 2 surveys explaining part of the increase. Results from this study found the vacancy rate was higher in rural hospitals than in nonrural hospitals, and it was lower in ambulatory surgical centers. A number of simulations were run to predict the effects of relevant changes in the market for surgeries and number of CRNAs, which were compared to the predictions from the previous survey. The remarkable factor since the last survey was the unusually large rate of new CRNAs entering the market, yet the vacancy rates remain relatively high.