Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

On this Writing : An Autotheoretic Account

An invited chapter that provides an autobiographical account of 'critical incidents' in becoming an academic writer.

Off-site Manufacture in Australia : Current State and Future Directions

Off-site manufacture (OSM) offers numerous benefits to all parties in the construction process. The uptake of OSM in Australia has, however, been limited. This limited uptake corresponds to similar trends in the UK and US, although the level of OSM there appears to be increasing. This project undertook three workshops — one each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia — and 18 interviews with key stakeholders to assist in identifying the general benefits and barriers to OSM uptake in the Australian construction industry. Seven case studies were also undertaken, involving construction projects that used OSM, ranging from civil projects through to residential. Each of these case studies has been analysed to identify what worked and what didn’t, and suggest the lessons to be learned from each project.

Why is there a gender gap in children presenting for Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder services?

This study addressed why girls are less likely to be referred for mental health services for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) than boys. Ninety-six parents of children with elevated ADHD symptoms and 140 elementary school teachers read vignettes about children with ADHD. Half of the participants read vignettes with boys' names, and half read the same vignettes but with girls' names. Participants then rated their likeliness to seek or recommend services for the child in each vignette. Parents and teachers were less likely to seek or recommend services for girls than boys with ADHD, but results did not support the hypothesis that this is because girls are less disruptive than boys. Rather, differences in service seeking were explained by the fact that parents and teachers believed that learning assistance is less effective for girls than boys with ADHD.

Foldback current control for a DG to achieve Fast Arc Extinction in a distribution network

The distribution network reliability can be increased if distributed generators (DGs) are allowed to operate in both grid-connected and islanded operations when the network has a high DG penetration level. However, the current utility regulations do not allow for the islanded operation. The arc faults are the one of the major issues preventing the islanded operation, since the arc will not extinguish if the DGs are not disconnected. In this paper, the effect of a converter interfaced DG on an arc fault is investigated by considering different control strategies for the converter. The foldback current control characteristic is proposed to a converter interfaced DG to achieve quick arc extinction and self-restoration without disconnecting the DG in the event of an arc fault. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Self-commutated current source converter with multi-level current reinjection

The multi-level current reinjection concept described in literature is well-known to produce high quality AC current waveforms in high power and high voltage self-commutating current source converters. This paper proposes a novel reinjection circuitry which is capable of producing a 7-level reinjection current. It is shown that this reinjection current effectively increases the pulse number of the converter to 72. The use of PSCAD/EMTDC simulation validates the functionality of the proposed concept illustrating its effectiveness on both AC and DC sides of the converter.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of valuers and agribusiness managers on farm management and sustainable rural land use

Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method, which can focus on the long term environmental and economic sustainability of the property being valued. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers in Australia, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and sustainable rural land use. A particular focus of the research relates to the increased awareness of the problems of rural land degradation in Australia and the subsequent impact such problems have on the productivity of rural land. These problems of sustainable land use have resulted in the need to develop an approach to rural valuation practice that allows the valuer to factor the past management practices on the subject rural property into the actual valuation figure. An analysis of the past farm management and the inclusion of this data into the valuation methodology provides a much more reliable indication of farm sustainable economic value than the existing direct comparison valuation methodology.

Ethnic differences in the BMI-%BF relationships between young Japanese and Australian-Caucasian males living in Australia using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry

The Body Mass Index (BMI) has been used worldwide as an indicator of fatness. However, the universal cut-off points by the World Health Organisation (WHO) classification may not be appropriate for every ethnic group when consider the relationship with their actual total body fatness(%BF). The application of population-specific classifications to assess BMI may be more relevant to public health. Ethnic differences in the BMI%BF relationship between 45 Japanese and 42 Australian-Caucasian males were assessed using whole body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan and anthropometry using a standard protocol. Japanese males had significantly (p<0.05) greater %BF at given BMI values than Australian males. When this is taken into account the newly proposed Asia-Pacific BMI classification of BMI 23 as overweight and 25 as obese may better assess the level of obesity that is associated increased health risks for this population. To clarify the current findings, further studies that compare the relationships across other Japanese populations are recommended.

Expressed emotion as predictor of relapse in patients with comorbid psychoses and substance use disorder

Objective: Expressed emotion (EE) and substance use disorder predict relapse in psychosis, but there is little research on EE in comorbid samples. The current study addressed this issue. Method: Sixty inpatients with a DSM-IV psychosis and substance use disorder were recruited and underwent diagnostic and substance use assessment. Key relatives were administered the Camberwell Family Interview. Results: Patients were assessed on the initial symptoms and recent substance use, and 58 completed the assessment over the following 9 months. High EE was observed in 62% of households. Expressed emotion was the strongest predictor of relapse during follow up and its predictive effect remained in participants with early psychosis. A multivariate prediction of a shorter time to relapse entered EE, substance use during follow up Q1 and (surprisingly) an absence of childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Conclusions: Since high EE is a common and important risk factor for people with comorbid psychosis and substance misuse, approaches to address it should be considered by treating clinicians.

Current evidence on integrated treatment for serious mental disorder and substance misuse

Substance misuse in people with serious mental disorders is common and has a wideranging negative impact. The multiplicity of problems suggests that this comorbidity is better conceptualized as a type of complex disorder than by ‘dual diagnosis’. Problems with sequential and parallel treatments have led to the development of integrated approaches, with one practitioner or team addressing both the substance use and mental disorder. These treatments are typically characterized by motivation enhancement, minimizing treatment-related stress, emphasizing harm reduction as well as abstinence, and assertive outreach. A review of published randomized trials demonstrates that superior effects to controls are rarely consistent across treatment foci and over time. While motivational interventions assist engagement, more intervention is usually required for integrated treatment programs to improve long-term outcomes more than control conditions. More intensive case management does not consistently improve impact, but extended cognitive-behavioral therapies have promise. Suggestions for maximizing treatment effects and improving research evidence are provided.

Efficient Voltage/Current Spike Reduction by Active Gate Signaling

This paper presents an Active Gate Signaling scheme to reduce voltage/current spikes across insulated gate power switches in hard switching power electronic circuits. Voltage and/or current spikes may cause EMI noise. In addition, they increase voltage/current stress on the switch. Traditionally, a higher gate resistance is chosen to reduce voltage/current spikes. Since the switching loss will increase remarkably, an active gate voltage control scheme is developed to improve efficiency of hard switching circuits while the undesirable voltage and/or current spikes are minimized.

Utilizing robustness of positive buck-boost converter against input voltage and load current disturbances

A Positive Buck- Boost (PBB) converter is a known DC-DC converter that can operate in step up and step down modes. Unlike Buck, Boost, and Inverting Buck Boost converters, the inductor current of a PBB can be controlled independently of its voltage conversion ratio. In other words, the inductor of PBB can be utilised as an energy storage unit in addition to its main function of energy transfer. In this paper, the capability of PBB to store energy has been utilised to achieve robustness against input voltage fluctuations and output current changes. The control strategy has been developed to keep accuracy, affordability, and simplicity acceptable. To improve the efficiency of the system a Smart Load Controller (SLC) has been suggested. Applying SLC extra current storage occurs when there is sudden loads change otherwise little extra current is stored.

What do we really know about designing and evaluating road safety advertising? : current knowledge and future challenges

This paper provides much needed consolidation of the available evidence in relation to the design and evaluation of road safety advertising messages. Drawing upon current knowledge, the paper identifies some key challenges for improving both the persuasiveness of messages and the methods utilised to assess their effectiveness. The paper identifies some key message-related and individual difference factors, such as response efficacy, emotion, gender and involvement, which theoretical and empirical evidence has shown to be key determinants of message persuasiveness. In relation to message evaluation, the paper focuses upon research relating to the direct, persuasive role of advertising as opposed to evaluations of the combined effects of advertising and enforcement. The paper reviews methodological limitations of previous studies and gaps in existing knowledge that together limit the ability to draw accurate and comprehensive conclusions regarding message effectiveness. Overall, this paper provides a significant and timely review of what is currently known about road safety advertising design and evaluation.

Current rural valuation practice : a survey of NSW valuers and agribusiness managers

Despite the advances that have been made in relation to the valuation of Commercial, Industrial and retail property, there has not been the same progress in relation to the valuation of rural property. Although number of rural property valuations also require the valuer to carry out a full analysis of the economic performance of the farming operations, as well as the long term environmental viability of the farm, this information is rarely used to assess the value of the property, nor is it even used for a secondary valuation method. Over the past 20 years the nature of rural valuation practice has required most rural valuers to undertake studies in both agriculture (farm management) and valuation, especially if carrying out valuation work for financial institutions. The additional farm financial and management information obtained by rural valuers exceeds that level of information required to value commercial, retail and industrial by the capitalisation of net rent/profit valuation method and is very similar to the level of information required for the valuation of commercial and retail property by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. On this basis the valuers specialising in rural valuation practice have the necessary skills and information to value rural properties by an income valuation method. Although the direct comparison method of valuation has been sufficient in the past to value rural properties the future use of the method as the main valuation method is limited and valuers need to adopt an income valuation method as at least a secondary valuation method to overcome the problems associated with the use of direct comparison as the only rural property valuation method, especially in view of the impact that farm technical, financial and environmental .management can have on rural property values. This paper will review the results of an extensive survey carried out by rural property valuers and agribusiness managers in NSW, in relation to the impact of farm management on rural property values and rural property valuation practice.

Prediction of adherence and control in diabetes

This study aims to predict adherence to diabetic treatment regimens and sustained diabetic control. During two clinic visits that were 2 months apart, 63 adult outpatients completed measures of diabetic history, current treatment, diabetic control, adherence, and self-efficacy about adherence to treatment. Results showed that self-efficacy was a significant predictor of later adherence to diabetes treatment even after past levels of adherence were taken into account. Posttest levels of adherence in turn were significantly associated with posttest %HbA1c after control for illness severity. A stepwise multiple regression to predict %HbAlc at post entered pretest measures of diabetic control, treatment type, and self-efficacy, which together predicted 50% of the variance. Results are related to self-efficacy theory and implications for practice are discussed.