Estimação clássica e Bayesiana em modelos de sobrevida com fração de cura

In Survival Analysis, long duration models allow for the estimation of the healing fraction, which represents a portion of the population immune to the event of interest. Here we address classical and Bayesian estimation based on mixture models and promotion time models, using different distributions (exponential, Weibull and Pareto) to model failure time. The database used to illustrate the implementations is described in Kersey et al. (1987) and it consists of a group of leukemia patients who underwent a certain type of transplant. The specific implementations used were numeric optimization by BFGS as implemented in R (base::optim), Laplace approximation (own implementation) and Gibbs sampling as implemented in Winbugs. We describe the main features of the models used, the estimation methods and the computational aspects. We also discuss how different prior information can affect the Bayesian estimates

Distribuição diária do comportamento da mosca da fruta Anastrepha zenildae Zucchi, (Diptera: Tephritidae) em laboratório.

The knowledge of Anastrepha zenildae behavioral aspects combined with the biology of Tephritidae may contribute to monitoring and control programs of this fruit fly that is considered as economically important to the Rio Grande do Norte state. In order to characterize the daily activity profile of this species, we studied the behaviors of resting, locomotion, feeding, cleaning, courtship, copulation and oviposition of animals submitted to an artificial 12:12h light-dark cycle (750:1lux) with controlled temperature (26±2 °C). The observations were made with groups of 16 males and 16 females during 3 consecutive days each generation from parental to F5. Resting, locomotion, feeding and cleaning data were recorded as frequency and time of occurrence by scanning technique in 15 minutes windows per hour, with a record each minute. Courtship, copulation and oviposition were recorded as frequency, time of occurrence and duration by al occurrences technique. Resting was the most frequent behavior with males resting more than females. Locomotion was more evident in the first half of the ligh phase with higher values in females. Cleaning and feeding behaviors were more frequent in the second half of the light phase for both sexes with females eating more frequently than males. During the courtship, males were grouped in lek formations showing wings vibration and pheromone liberation. Courtship occurred more frequently 4 to 7 h after lights on (81,9%) with copulations being more frequent 6 h after lights on with a mean duration of 58,1±40,4 min. Copulation attempts were observed in males inside and outside the lek with aggressive behavior being observed only between males in the lek. Oviposition behavior was similar to that described for other species of the genus with a peak of this activity 2-3 h after the lights on, mean duration of 43, 7±34, 8 sec and 2 to 5 eggs by event. According to the results, sexual behavior of A. zenildae is temporally different of other sympatric species of the genus, being favorable to the reproductive isolation as well as the use of resources as oviposition substrate.

Ritmo circadiano de atividade motora e distribuição diária dos comportamentos afiliativos ao longo da fase juvenil em saguis (callithrix jacchus)

The temporal allocation of the active phase in relation to light and dark cycle (LD) changes during puberty in humans, degus, rats and rhesus. In marmosets, the animal model used in several biomedical researches, there is evidence of a delay at the beginning of the active phase and an increase in total daily activity after onset of puberty. However, as this aspect was evaluated in animals maintained in natural environmental conditions, it was not possible to distinguish between the effects of puberty and of seasonality. Furthermore, as motor activity is the result of different behaviors in this species, it is also important to characterize the diurnal distribution of other behaviors in juvenile stage. With the aim of characterizing the circadian rhythm of motor activity and the diurnal profile of affiliative behavior in marmosets, the motor activity of 5 dyads juveniles between 4 and 12 months of age and their parents was recorded continuously for actímetro. The families were maintained under artificial LD 12:12 h, constant temperature and humidity. The duration of grooming behavior, proximity and social play among juveniles was recorded 2 times a week in sessions of 15 minutes each hour of the active phase. Afetr onset of puberty in juvenile, it was observed that there was no change in the parameters of circadian motor activity rhythm which were common to most animals. Despite the absence of pubertal modulation, it was observed that the circadian activity profiles have stronger synchrony between individuals of the same family than that of different families, which may indicate that the circadian activity rhythm was modulated by the dynamics of social interactions. In relation to age, the total daily activity and the ratio between evening and morning activity (EA/MA) were higher in juveniles than in adults, which may be associated with differences in the circadian timing system between age groups. Furthermore, the onset of the 10 consecutive hours of higher activity (M10) occurred earlier in adult males than in other members of the group, probably as a way to avoid competition for resources in one of the first activities of the day that is foraging. During the juvenile stage, there was an increase in total daily activity that may be associated with increased motor ability of juveniles. In addition to the circadian activity rhythm, the daytime profile of proximity and social play behaviors was similar between the 5th and 12th month of life of juveniles, in which the interval between 7- 10 h in the morning showed the highest values of proximity and lower values of play social. Moreover, the duration of the grooming showed a similar distribution to adults from the 8th month, wherein the higher values occurring at the interval between 11 14 h of day. Considering the results, the parameters of the circadian activity rhythm had a greater influence of social factors than puberty. In relation to age, there were no changes related to the allocation of the active phase in relation to the LD cycle, but total daily activity, the ratio AV/AM and the start of the M10 is possible to observe differences between juveniles and adults

Distribuição diária das atividades comportamentais dos camarões marinhos Farfantepenaeus subtilis (Pérez Farfante, 1967) e Litopenaeus schmitti (Burkenroad, 1938) em condições laboratoriais

Marine aquaculture has developed in the last decades all over the world, especially related to shrimp management. In Brazil, the introduction of the species Litopenaeus vannamei has contributed to the success of the activity, even if there are problems associated with the management of a exotic species, such as new diseases and ecological pressure on native species. It has been emphasized the need of research for developing new methodology that will allow native species management, being the most important Farfantepenaeus subtilis and Litopenaeus schmitti. Most knowledge obtained from research with those species has generally used a technical approach and mainly focused feeding process. There are no specific behavioral data on their activity pattern which should be of great importance for the use of native species on commercial culture farms. So, it was our objective to study and compare the daily distribution of behavioral activities of the marine shrimp species Litopenaeus schmitti and Farfantepenaeus subtilis. Forty animals of each species, 5 individuals per aquarium, were maintained in aquaria containing 200L of sea water under continuous aeration and filtration. They were marked individually and were observed by the instantaneous focal time sampling, along 10 continuous days, in 6 daily 15 min observation windows, every two hour. In each window, behaviors and location position of the animals in the aquarium were registered at 1 min intervals. Food was offered 3 times a day, representing 10% of each aquarium biomass. Aquaria were maintained in artificial photoperiod, 12hour light/l2 hour dark, 4 aquaria in light cycle equivalent to the environmental one (light from 06:00 to 17:59 h and dark from 18:00 to 05:59 h) and the other 4 in the reverse light cycle (light from 18:00 to 05:59 h and dark from 06:00 to 17:59 h) to allow sequential behavioral observation in both phases of the 24 hour cycle. There was a clear distinction between the distribution of behavioral activities of F. subtilis and L. schmitti in the two phases. The activity pattern of Farfantepenaeus subtilis demonstrates that species has prominently night habits and a burying pattern during the light cycle. Exploration, inactivity and swimming were the most common activities. The behavioral pattern of Litopenaeus schmitti indicates that species is active along both phases of the light cycle, and the most evident behaviors were exploration, inactivity and swimming

Variação diária e anual de freqüência e atividade do Boto Cinza Sotalia guianensis em Pipa, Nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study was to investigate the daily and annual variation in frequency and in activity of an estuarine dolphin population, Sotalia guianensis, in Brazilian northeastern. Thus we estimated the daily variation and seasonality in frequency of adult and immature and in behavior of socialization, aerial activity, foraging of a boto equatorial population in the Curral inlet (6º13 00 S; 35º3 36 W). We detect some variation. Thus we associate the daily variation with daily period, tide fluctuation and annual season. And the seasonality variation we associate with the fotoperíodo and precipitation variation. From October 1999 to September 2003, through collect four times at month, we made instantaneous record at each five minute in six hours of survey. The surveys hours were ranged into light time of 24 hours, that is, between 06:00 and 17:00 o clock. These observations were developed simultaneous for two observers in a land-based survey at coastline cliff top of which observer have a fully visualization of whole inlet. We found that animals were more active and frequent during the morning. They were more active during low tide than high tide. However they did not show association with tide. We found yet that in a period from June to November (winter-spring) there was the highest socialization, aerial activity and foraging frequency. However adult and immature individual number did not have significance variation along the year. The larger concentration of this behaviors were not associate with photoperiod neither precipitation in the region. These results showed the existence of behavioral daily variation and seasonality in a species that live in equatorial region

Influência da época de semeadura no comportamento de cultivares de arroz irrigado por aspersão em Selvíria, MS

Este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar os efeitos da época da semeadura no comportamento de diferentes cultivares de arroz (Oryza sativa L.) de sequeiro (IAC 201, Carajás, Guarani, IAC 202, CNA 7800, CNA 7801, Caiapó, Rio Paranaíba e Araguaia) irrigados por aspersão, quanto à produção e qualidade dos grãos. As sementes foram semeadas no início da segunda quinzena dos meses de setembro, outubro, novembro, dezembro, janeiro e fevereiro. Os experimentos foram instalados no Município de Selvíria, MS, durante os anos agrícolas 1995/96 e 1996/97. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições. O controle da irrigação foi realizado por meio de tensiômetros, e a suplementação hídrica foi realizada quando o potencial matricial atingiu -0,033 MPa, durante a fase reprodutiva e -0,058 MPa, nas demais fases. de acordo com os resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que as cultivares CNA 7801, Carajás, IAC 201, CNA 7800 e IAC 202 apresentaram comportamento superior; a semeadura realizada em novembro propiciou produtividade mais elevada; semeaduras antecipadas (setembro-outubro) ou retardada (fevereiro) resultaram em menores índices de acamamento; as cultivares IAC 202, CNA 7800 e CNA 7801 apresentaram ausência ou baixo índice de acamamento, nas diferentes épocas de semeadura e, a semeadura retardada (fevereiro) proporcionou a obtenção de maior rendimento de inteiros.

Resposta de cultivares de arroz de sequeiro ao preparo do solo e à irrigação por aspersão

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Resposta de cultivares de trigo ao nitrogênio em relação às fontes e épocas de aplicação sob plantio direto e irrigação por aspersão

A adubação nitrogenada é de suma importância para a cultura do trigo, já que o nitrogênio constitui um dos nutrientes mais exigidos por essa cultura e o rendimento desta é função direta da quantidade de nutrientes acumulados pela planta. Foram testados os adubos nitrogenados: sulfonitrato de amônio com inibidor de nitrificação, sulfato de amônio e uréia, na dose de 70 kg de N ha-1; em duas épocas de aplicação, na linha de semeadura ou em cobertura, além da testemunha que não recebeu nitrogênio como tratamento, em quatro cultivares de trigo irrigado: Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) 21, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) 22, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) 42 e IAC 370. O experimento foi conduzido sob irrigação por aspersão em dois anos (2005 e 2006) em área experimental pertencente à Faculdade de Engenharia de Ilha Solteira UNESP/São Paulo - Brasil. As fontes de nitrogênio sulfonitrato de amônio com inibidor de nitrificação, sulfato de amônio e uréia não diferiram entre si, porém foram superiores à testemunha, em relação à produtividade de grãos. A aplicação do N todo em cobertura proporcionou aumento na produtividade de grãos. O comportamento das cultivares quanto aos componentes de produção e produtividade foram dependentes do ano em estudo.

Produtividade do arroz irrigado por aspersão em função do espaçamento e da densidade de semeadura

Com o objetivo de estudar o efeito de três espaçamentos entre fileiras (30, 40 e 50 cm) e três densidades de semeadura (100, 150 e 200 sementes viáveis/m²) sobre o desenvolvimento da planta, os componentes da produção e a produtividade do arroz irrigado por aspersão até a tensão de reposição de água de -0,070 MPa, foi instalado um experimento em condições de campo, em um Latossolo Vermelho-Escuro, epieutrófico, textura argilosa, em Selvíria, MS. A cultivar avaliada foi a IAC 201. Esta cultivar apresenta suscetibilidade ao acamamento, no sistema de irrigação por aspersão, até uma tensão de reposição de água, no solo, de -0,070 Mpa. O número de colmos e de panículas é incrementado com a redução do espaçamento. A densidade de 100 sementes/m² é a mais indicada para a cultivar IAC 201 irrigada por aspersão, por proporcionar menor gasto de sementes. O espaçamento de 30 cm entre fileiras de plantas proporciona maior produtividade de grãos da cultivar IAC 201 no sistema de irrigação por aspersão.

Preparo do solo, irrigação por aspersão e rendimento de engenho do arroz de terras altas

O rendimento de engenho obtido após o beneficiamento industrial é um parâmetro importante durante a fase de comercialização do arroz e pode ser influenciado pelas práticas culturais realizadas durante o período de cultivo. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o rendimento de benefício, rendimento de inteiros e grãos quebrados de cultivares de arroz de sequeiro em função do preparo do solo e da irrigação por aspersão na região de Selvíria - MS, durante os anos agrícolas de 1997/98 e 1998/99. O solo do local é do tipo Latossolo Vermelho álico, textura argilosa e os tratamentos consistiram na combinação de três cultivares de arroz (IAC 201, Carajás e Guarani), com três sistemas de preparo do solo (arado de aiveca + grade niveladora, escarificador + grade niveladora e grade pesada + grade niveladora) e três níveis de irrigação por aspersão (sequeiro e duas lâminas de água), com quatro repetições. O cultivar IAC 201 apresenta maior rendimento de benefício e o Carajás destaca-se dos demais em rendimento de inteiros; os diferentes sistemas de preparo utilizados praticamente não interferem no rendimento de engenho; a irrigação por aspersão aumenta o rendimento de benefício e o rendimento de inteiros, principalmente em ano com ocorrência de veranico.

Manejo de irrigação por aspersão com base no Kc e adubação mineral na cultura de arroz de terras altas

A irrigação por aspersão diminui bastante o risco de perda da lavoura por deficiência hídrica e aumenta a produtividade de grãos, incentivando maior uso de tecnologias como adubação mineral. Com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de diferentes manejos da água da irrigação por aspersão com base no coeficiente de cultura (Kc) e da adubação mineral sobre a cultura do arroz cv. IAC 201, foram instalados dois experimentos em Latossolo Vermelho Distrófico, em Selvíria (MS). O delineamento foi em blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos constituíram-se de precipitação pluvial natural e três manejos de água fornecidos por aspersão. O manejo (M2) foi realizado com base no Kc do arroz de terras altas. Os manejos M1 e M3 foram definidos como 0,5 e 1,5 vezes os Kcs utilizados em M2 respectivamente. em 1995/96, utilizou-se o esquema de parcelas subdivididas, sendo as subparcelas constituídas por dois níveis de adubação: AD1 - 12 kg de N, 90 kg de P2O5 e 30 kg de K2O ha-1, e AD2 - 24 kg de N, 180 kg de P2O5 e 60 kg de K2O ha-1. A deficiência hídrica da emergência da plântula até a diferenciação do primórdio da panícula provocou aumento do ciclo e redução do porte da planta. A deficiência hídrica entre os estádios de diferenciação do primórdio da panícula e os de emborrachamento reduziu o número de espiguetas por panícula. A utilização de 1,5 vezes os valores de Kc recomendados, no manejo da irrigação por aspersão proporcionou maior produtividade de grãos. Os níveis de adubação utilizados não influenciaram a resposta da cultura ao manejo da irrigação por aspersão.

Aplicação de silício em arroz de terras altas irrigado por aspersão

The use of chemical elements considered as beneficial to crops has become common among farmers. The silicon case is interesting, since despite not being essential physiologically for rice crop, it demonstrates that through its absorption it promotes benefits. Therefore, this experiment aimed to evaluate the effect of doses of SiO(2) (0, 150, 300, 450, 600, 750 and 900 kg ha(-1)) at seed sowing time, in two upland rice cultivars (IAC 201 and IAC 202), under sprinkler irrigation, during the agricultural years of 2002/03 and 2003/04 in Selviria, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. The cultivar IAC 202 can present higher yield than IAC 201, with similar industrial quality and lower laying index. Silicon applications were not sufficient to reduce laying index of IAC 201. In general, silicon application does not interfere in grain productivity and industrial yield of the cultivars used.

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior