Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Usefulness of B-type natriuretic peptide in hypertensive patients with exertional dyspnea and normal left ventricular ejection fraction and correlation with new echocardiographic indexes of systolic and diastolic function

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Production of proteinases by psychrotrophic bacteria in raw milk stored at low temperature

Raw milk samples from two different sources were stored at 2degreesC, 4degreesC and 7degreesC for 10 days and the growth of psychrotrophic bacteria, production of proteinase and proteolysis in the milks were measured during storage. Peptide analyses by the fluorescamine method and RP-HPLC were used in determination of proteolysis and proteinase activity. The average times taken for the psychrotroph counts to reach 10(7) cfu/mL at 2degreesC, 4degreesC and 7degreesC were approximately 9, 7 and 4 days, although there was considerable variation in growth rates in the different milks. There was little correlation between psychrotroph counts and either proteolysis or proteinase activity levels. At 2degreesC, no milk stored showed significant proteolysis by the fluorescamine method after 10 days' storage, but significant proteinase activity could be measured in some of these milks at 8 and 10 days. RP-HPLC analysis was a more sensitive means of detecting peptides than the fluorescamine method.

Poor correlation of mid-femoral measurements by CT and hip measurements by DXA in the elderly

Background and aims: Hip fracture is a devastating event in terms of outcome in the elderly, and the best predictor of hip fracture risk is hip bone density, usually measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). However, bone density can also be ascertained from computerized tomography (CT) scans, and mid-thigh scans are frequently employed to assess the muscle and fat composition of the lower limb. Therefore, we examined if it was possible to predict hip bone density using mid-femoral bone density. Methods: Subjects were 803 ambulatory white and black women and men, aged 70-79 years, participating in the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Bone mineral content (BMC, g) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD, mg/cm(3)) of the mid-femur were obtained by CT, whereas BMC and areal bone mineral density (aBMD, g/cm(2)) of the hip (femoral neck and trochanter) were derived from DXA. Results: In regression analyses stratified by race and sex, the coefficient of determination was low with mid-femoral BMC, explaining 6-27% of the variance in hip BMC, with a standard error of estimate (SEE) ranging from 16 to 22% of the mean. For mid-femur vBMD, the variance explained in hip aBMD was 2-17% with a SEE ranging from 15 to 18%. Adjusting aBMD to approximate volumetric density did not improve the relationships. In addition, the utility of fracture prediction was examined. Forty-eight subjects had one or more fractures (various sites) during a mean follow-up of 4.07 years. In logistic regression analysis, there was no association between mid-femoral vBMD and fracture (all fractures), whereas a 1 SD increase in hip BMD was associated with reduced odds for fracture of similar to60%. Conclusions: These results do not support the use of CT-derived mid-femoral vBMD or BMC to predict DXA-measured hip bone mineral status, irrespective of race or sex in older adults. Further, in contrast to femoral neck and trochanter BMD, mid-femur vBMD was not able to predict fracture (all fractures). (C) 2003, Editrice Kurtis.

Programa times de resultados

O Banco do Nordeste, a partir de 1995, iniciou um profundo processo de mudan??a organizacional ??? redefini????o e amplia????o dos neg??cios, redefini????o das estrat??gias, reorienta????o na forma de funcionamento e inser????o de novas concep????es na gest??o de pessoas. Havia a necessidade de uma maior intera????o da Dire????o Geral (??reas estrat??gicas) com as unidades de neg??cios e uma melhor comunica????o sobre as estrat??gias adotadas para o processo de mudan??a organizacional. Fazia-se necess??rio criar uma ambi??ncia para sustenta????o desse processo de mudan??as, que possibilitasse o aprofundamento dos conceitos e pressupostos do novo modelo organizacional e proporcionasse o desenvolvimento das equipes e conseq??entemente a melhoria dos resultados empresarias. Desde a cria????o do Programa em 1997, foram realizadas 333 oficinas, sendo que deste total 86 j?? se constitu??ram segunda oficina. Anualmente, ?? realizado acompanhamento de p??s-venda das oficinas, o que tem gerado registros em torno de 1.373 depoimentos positivos de gestores e colaboradores sobre o Programa. Desde a sua cria????o, foram gerados 4.093 compromissos de melhoria cont??nua nas dimens??es estrat??gias, processos e pessoas, transformando positivamente a realidade das unidades

Action of auxin inhibitors on growth and grain yield of soybean

Soybean genotypes grown in sub-tropical climate may exhibit lodging. The plant lodging is influenced by soil type and fertility level, sowing date, latitude and altitude of the location, plant population and conditions of crop development. Plant regulators and herbicides are able to avoid or reduce plant lodging. This study aimed to verify the effects of the growth regulators TIBA and daminozide on vegetative growth and yield of soybean cultivar CD 214 RR. The experiment was carried out at a field in randomized block design with four replications in a factorial scheme. The A factor was represented by the combination of regulators TIBA and daminozide and its concentrations, and the Factor B was seven times of evaluation of injury and plant height or eight times of evaluation of lodging. In the range of doses used, the application of daminozide resulted in greater injury to soybean plants than TIBA. The smaller plant height was achieved by the application of 6 g ha-1 of TIBA and 1200 g ha-¹ of daminozide. Treatments with daminozide (100 g ha-¹) and TIBA (10 g ha-1) stood out due to the reduced lodging of soybean plants. Grain weight increased linearly when the levels of TIBA increased. There was a negative correlation between lodging and grain yield and a positive correlation between plant height and lodging. There was also a negative correlation between injury caused by the application of plant regulators and lodging.

On righteousness and dignity : two challenging issues since early modern times

Concepts such as righteousness, equality, tolerance and freedom are nowadays considered fundamental issues that should prevail in any society. Balance and righteousness thrive however on a very thin layer. We are, in fact, living in an era of duality and antithetical paradigms. This essay approaches two Renaissance authors who dealt with the same matters in their works, at a very different time and through different ways of reflection: Thomas More and Sir Walter Raleigh.

Parental predictors of poor visual outcome with occlusion treatment for unilateral amblyopia

Aim: Visual acuity outcome of amblyopia treatment depends on the compliance. This study aimed to determine parental predictors of poor visual outcome with occlusion treatment in unilateral amblyopia and identify the relationship between occlusion recommendations and the patient's actual dose of occlusion reported by the parents. Methods: This study comprised three phases: refractive adaptation for a period of 18 weeks after spectacle correction; occlusion of 3 to 6 hours per day during a period of 6 months; questionnaire administration and completion by parents. Visual acuity as assessed using the Sheridan-Gardiner singles or Snellen acuity chart was used as a measure of visual outcome. Correlation analysis was used to describe the strength and direction of two variables: prescribed occlusion reported by the doctor and actual dose reported by parents. A logistic binary model was adjusted using the following variables: severity, vulnerability, self-efficacy, behaviour intentions, perceived efficacy and treatment barriers, parents' and childrens' age, and parents' level of education. Results: The study included 100 parents (mean age 38.9 years, SD approx 9.2) of 100 children (mean age 6.3 years, SD approx 2.4) with amblyopia. Twenty-eight percent of children had no improvement in visual acuity. The results showed a positive mild correlation (kappa = 0.54) between the prescribed occlusion and actual dose reported by parents. Three predictors for poor visual outcome with occlusion were identified: parents' level of education (OR = 9.28; 95%CI 1.32-65.41); treatment barriers (OR = 2.75; 95%CI 1.22-6.20); interaction between severity and vulnerability (OR = 3.64; 95%CI 1.21-10.93). Severity (OR = 0.07; 95%CI 0.00-0.72) and vulnerability (OR = 0.06; 95%CI 0.05-0.74) when considered in isolation were identified as protective factors. Conclusions: Parents frequently do not use the correct dosage of occlusion as recommended. Parents' educational level and awareness of treatment barriers were predictors of poor visual outcome. Lower levels of education represented a 9-times higher risk of having a poor visual outcome with occlusion treatment.

A systematic procedure to enhance reproducibility of SWASV cycles in the determination of toxic metals in real samples

This work presents for the first time a systematic study on the optimization of the electrochemical cleaning time of a mercury film when it is used as a working electrode material in the analysis of toxic metals, such as Pb2+, used as model metal, in real samples by SWASV. The optimization study for the film’s cleaning time aimed at attaining a Pb2+ minimum value in the film after the re-oxidation step of the pre-concentrated metal, given the impossibility of complete removal of traces of the electroactive species from the film. This value was kept constant in each concentration range studied ensuring thus that all assays were performed in initial identical conditions. An assay performed on a synthetic sample was taken as reference. In it, given the absence of matrix effects, and after the electrochemical cleaning step, a direct proportionality was observed between the residual amounts of Pb2+ in the film (which for the cleaning time used was never completely removed) and Pb2+ concentration in the solution. This fact determined a high correlation between Pb2+ peak current and Pb2+ concentration which was not observed when real samples (tree leaves) were analyzed. This behavior may result from the presence of the interfering surfactants always present in real samples of complex matrix. Cleaning time optimization was performed for the following Pb2+ concentration ranges in the real samples of complex matrix: 0.006-0.020, 0.020-0.080, 0.060-0.200 and 0.100-0.600 ppb. As expected, in order to obtain identical levels of film’s cleaning efficiency, the need for longer cleaning times has been observed for higher concentrations. The optimized cleaning times for the concentration ranges under study were 120, 150, 180 e 300 s, respectively.

From efficiency to optimality in proportional reinsurance under group correlation

Based on our recent discovery of closed form formulae of efficient Mean Variance retentions in variable quota-share proportional reinsurance under group correlation, we analyzed the influence of different combination of correlation and safety loading levels on the efficient frontier, both in a single period stylized problem and in a multiperiod one.