The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.

The sensitivity of convective aggregation to diabatic processes in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

Idealized explicit convection simulations of the Met Office Unified Model exhibit spontaneous self-aggregation in radiative-convective equilibrium, as seen in other models in previous studies. This self-aggregation is linked to feedbacks between radiation, surface fluxes, and convection, and the organization is intimately related to the evolution of the column water vapor field. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy (MSE), following Wing and Emanuel [2014], reveals that the direct radiative feedback (including significant cloud longwave effects) is dominant in both the initial development of self-aggregation and the maintenance of an aggregated state. A low-level circulation at intermediate stages of aggregation does appear to transport MSE from drier to moister regions, but this circulation is mostly balanced by other advective effects of opposite sign and is forced by horizontal anomalies of convective heating (not radiation). Sensitivity studies with either fixed prescribed radiative cooling, fixed prescribed surface fluxes, or both do not show full self-aggregation from homogeneous initial conditions, though fixed surface fluxes do not disaggregate an initialized aggregated state. A sensitivity study in which rain evaporation is turned off shows more rapid self-aggregation, while a run with this change plus fixed radiative cooling still shows strong self-aggregation, supporting a “moisture memory” effect found in Muller and Bony [2015]. Interestingly, self-aggregation occurs even in simulations with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 295 K and 290 K, with direct radiative feedbacks dominating the budget of MSE variance, in contrast to results in some previous studies.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE): investigating the origins of heavy precipitation in the southwestern UK

A recent field campaign in southwest England used numerical modeling integrated with aircraft and radar observations to investigate the dynamic and microphysical interactions that can result in heavy convective precipitation. The COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) was a joint UK-US field campaign held during the summer of 2013 in the southwest peninsula of England, designed to study convective clouds that produce heavy rain leading to flash floods. The clouds form along convergence lines that develop regularly due to the topography. Major flash floods have occurred in the past, most famously at Boscastle in 2004. It has been suggested that much of the rain was produced by warm rain processes, similar to some flash floods that have occurred in the US. The overarching goal of COPE is to improve quantitative convective precipitation forecasting by understanding the interactions of the cloud microphysics and dynamics and thereby to improve NWP model skill for forecasts of flash floods. Two research aircraft, the University of Wyoming King Air and the UK BAe 146, obtained detailed in situ and remote sensing measurements in, around, and below storms on several days. A new fast-scanning X-band dual-polarization Doppler radar made 360-deg volume scans over 10 elevation angles approximately every 5 minutes, and was augmented by two UK Met Office C-band radars and the Chilbolton S-band radar. Detailed aerosol measurements were made on the aircraft and on the ground. This paper: (i) provides an overview of the COPE field campaign and the resulting dataset; (ii) presents examples of heavy convective rainfall in clouds containing ice and also in relatively shallow clouds through the warm rain process alone; and (iii) explains how COPE data will be used to improve high-resolution NWP models for operational use.

Proper evaluation of the external convective heat transfer for the thermal analysis of cool roofs

Cool materials are characterized by high solar reflectance and high thermal emittance; when applied to the external surface of a roof, they make it possible to limit the amount of solar irradiance absorbed by the roof, and to increase the rate of heat flux emitted by irradiation to the environment, especially during nighttime. However, a roof also releases heat by convection on its external surface; this mechanism is not negligible, and an incorrect evaluation of its entity might introduce significant inaccuracy in the assessment of the thermal performance of a cool roof, in terms of surface temperature and rate of heat flux transferred to the indoors. This issue is particularly relevant in numerical simulations, which are essential in the design stage, therefore it deserves adequate attention. In the present paper, a review of the most common algorithms used for the calculation of the convective heat transfer coefficient due to wind on horizontal building surfaces is presented. Then, with reference to a case study in Italy, the simulated results are compared to the outcomes of a measurement campaign. Hence, the most appropriate algorithms for the convective coefficient are identified, and the errors deriving by an incorrect selection of this coefficient are discussed.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002-2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asuncin. In Mariscal and Asuncin, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.

The role of convective parameterization in the simulation of a cyclone over the South Atlantic

Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the role of the Kuo and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization schemes and dry dynamics on a cyclone development, in a weak baroclinic atmosphere, over subtropical South Atlantic Ocean. The initial phase of the cyclone development is investigated with a coarse horizontal mesh (75 km) and when the cyclone reaches the mature stage two different horizontal resolutions are used (75 and 25 km). The best performance simulation for the cyclone initial phase occurs when the Kuo convective scheme is applied, and this may be attributed to a greater diabatic warming in the troposphere. On the other hand, the dry simulation is not capable of simulating the correct location and intensity of the cyclone in its initial phase. During the mature phase, a cyclone over deepening occurs in the Kuo scheme experiment associated with larger latent heat release in a deep vertical column. The presence of downdraft currents in the KF scheme, which acts to cool and dry the lower levels, is essential to stabilize the atmosphere and to reproduce the nearest observation cyclone deepening rate. The largest cyclone deepening is found in the Kuo scheme high resolution experiment. This suggests that the KF convective scheme is less sensitive to the horizontal grid resolution. It was also revealed that the diabatic processes are crucial to simulate the observed features of this marine cyclone over subtropical region.

Friction factors, convective heat transfer coefficients and the Colburn analogy for industrial sugarcane juices

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Size distributions of fine silicate and other particles in Masaya's volcanic plume

Direct-sampling and remote-sensing measurements were made at the crater rim of Masaya volcano (Nicaragua) to sample the aerosol plume emanating from the active vent. We report the first measurements of the size distribution of fine silicate particles (d <10 mu m) in Masaya's plume, by automated scanning electron microscopy (QEMSCAN) analysis of a particle filter. The particle size distribution was approximately lognormal with modal d similar to 1.15 mu m. The majority of these particles were found to be spherical. These particles are interpreted to be droplets of quenched magma produced by a spattering process. Compositional analyses confirm earlier reports that the fine silicate particles show a range of compositions between that of the degassing magma and nearly pure silica and that the extent of compositional variability decreases with increasing particle size. These results indicate that fine silicate particles are altered owing to reactions with acidic droplets in the plume. The emission flux of fine silicate particles was estimated as similar to 10(11) s(-1), equivalent to similar to 55 kg d(-1). Sun photometry, aerosol spectrometry, and thermal precipitation were used to determine the overall particle size distribution of the plume (0.01 < d(mu m) < 10). Sun photometry and aerosol spectrometry measurements indicate the presence of a large number of particles (assumed to be aqueous) with d similar to 1 mu m. Aerosol spectrometry measurements further show an increase in particle size as the nighttime approached. The emission flux of particles from Masaya was estimated as similar to 10(17) s(-1), equivalent to similar to 5.5 Mg d(-1) where d < 4 mu m.

Influence of drying conditions on ascorbic acid during convective drying of whole persimmons

Degradation kinetics of food constituents may be related to the matrix molecular mobility by glass transition temperature. Our objective was to test this approach to describe ascorbic acid degradation during drying of persimmons in an automatically controlled tray dryer with temperatures (40 to 70 degrees C) and air velocities (0.8 to 2.0 m/s) varying according a second order central composite design. The Williams-Landel-Ferry model was satisfactorily adjusted to degradation curves for both control strategies adopted-constant air temperature and temperature fixed inside the fruit. Degradation rates were higher at higher drying temperatures, independent of the necessary time to attain the desired moisture content.

A case study of convective organization into precipitating lines in the Southwest Amazon during the WETAMC and TRMM-LBA

A case study of convective development in the Southwest Amazon region during the Wet Season Atmospheric Mesoscale Campaign (WETAMC) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) Experiment in Amazonia is presented. The convective development during 7 February 1999 is shown to occur during a period of very weak large-scale forcing in the presence of topography and deforestation. The available data include dual Doppler radar analysis, radiosonde launches, and surface and boundary layer observations. The observational analysis is complemented with a series of model simulations using the RAMS with 2-km resolution over a 300 km 300 km area forced by a morning radiosonde profile. A comparison of the observed and simulated thermodynamic transformation of the boundary layer and of the formation of convective lines, and of their kinematic and microphysical properties is presented. It is shown that only a few very deep and intense convective cells are necessary to explain the overall precipitating line formation and that discrete propagation and coupling with upper atmosphere circulations may explain the appearance of several lines. The numerical simulation indicates that topography may be the cause of initial convective development, although later on the convective line is parallel to the midlevel shear. There are indications that small-scale deforestation may have an effect on increasing rainfall in the wet season when the large-scale forcing is very weak.

Convective storm initiation in a moist tropical environment

Radar and satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) project have been examined to determine causes for convective storm initiation in the southwest Amazon region. The locations and times of storm initiation were based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol). Both the radar and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-8 (GOES-8) visible data were used to identify cold pools produced by convective precipitation. These data along with high-resolution topographic data were used to determine possible convective storm triggering mechanisms. The terrain elevation varied from 100 to 600 m. Tropical forests cover the area with numerous clear-cut areas used for cattle grazing and farming. This paper presents the results from 5 February 1999. A total of 315 storms were initiated within 130 km of the S-Pol radar. This day was classified as a weak monsoon regime where convection developed in response to the diurnal cycle of solar heating. Scattered shallow cumulus during the morning developed into deep convection by early afternoon. Storm initiation began about 1100 LST and peaked around 1500-1600 LST. The causes of storm initiation were classified into four categories. The most common initiation mechanism was caused by forced lifting by a gust front (GF; 36%). Forcing by terrain (>300 m) without any other triggering mechanism accounted for 21% of the initiations and colliding GFs accounted for 16%. For the remaining 27% a triggering mechanism was not identified. Examination of all days during TRMM-LBA showed that this one detailed study day was representative of many days. A conceptual model of storm initiation and evolution is presented. The results of this study should have implications for other locations when synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms are at a minimum. These results should also have implications for very short-period forecasting techniques in any location where terrain, GFs, and colliding boundaries influence storm evolution.

Transient non-Darcy forced convective heat transfer from a flat plate embedded in a fluid-saturated porous medium

Transient non-Darcy forced convection on a flat plate embedded in a porous medium is investigated using the Forchheimer-extended Darcy law. A sudden uniform pressure gradient is applied along the flat plate, and at the same time, its wall temperature is suddenly raised to a high temperature. Both the momentum and energy equations are solved by retaining the unsteady terms. An exact velocity solution is obtained and substituted into the energy equation, which then is solved by means of a quasi-similarity transformation. The temperature field can be divided into the one-dimensional transient (downstream) region and the quasi-steady-state (upstream) region. Thus the transient local heat transfer coefficient can be described by connecting the quasi-steady-state solution and the one-dimensional transient solution. The non-Darcy porous inertia works to decrease the velocity level and the time required for reaching the steady-state velocity level. The porous-medium inertia delays covering of the plate by the steady-state thermal boundary layer. © 1990.