Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on observing and predicting Earth’s energy flows

The Earth’s climate, as well as planetary climates in general, is broadly regulated by three fundamental parameters: the total solar irradiance, the planetary albedo and the planetary emissivity. Observations from series of different satellites during the last three decades indicate that these three quantities are generally very stable. The total solar irradiation of some 1,361 W/m2 at 1 A.U. varies within 1 W/m2 during the 11-year solar cycle (Fröhlich 2012). The albedo is close to 29 % with minute changes from year to year but with marked zonal differences (Stevens and Schwartz 2012). The only exception to the overall stability is a minor decrease in the planetary emissivity (the ratio between the radiation to space and the radiation from the surface of the Earth). This is a consequence of the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas amounts making the atmosphere gradually more opaque to long-wave terrestrial radiation. As a consequence, radiation processes are slightly out of balance as less heat is leaving the Earth in the form of thermal radiation than the amount of heat from the incoming solar radiation. Present space-based systems cannot yet measure this imbalance, but the effect can be inferred from the increase in heat in the oceans where most of the heat accumulates. Minor amounts of heat are used to melt ice and to warm the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth.

Foreword: International Space Science Institute (ISSI) workshop on the Earth’s cryosphere and sea level change

Rising sea level is perhaps the most severe consequence of climate warming, as much of the world’s population and infrastructure is located near current sea level (Lemke et al. 2007). A major rise of a metre or more would cause serious problems. Such possibilities have been suggested by Hansen and Sato (2011) who pointed out that sea level was several metres higher than now during the Holsteinian and Eemian interglacials (about 250,000 and 120,000 years ago, respectively), even though the global temperature was then only slightly higher than it is nowadays. It is consequently of the utmost importance to determine whether such a sea level rise could occur and, if so, how fast it might happen. Sea level undergoes considerable changes due to natural processes such as the wind, ocean currents and tidal motions. On longer time scales, the sea level is influenced by steric effects (sea water expansion caused by temperature and salinity changes of the ocean) and by eustatic effects caused by changes in ocean mass. Changes in the Earth’s cryosphere, such as the retreat or expansion of glaciers and land ice areas, have been the dominant cause of sea level change during the Earth’s recent history. During the glacial cycles of the last million years, the sea level varied by a large amount, of the order of 100 m. If the Earth’s cryosphere were to disappear completely, the sea level would rise by some 65 m. The scientific papers in the present volume address the different aspects of the Earth’s cryosphere and how the different changes in the cryosphere affect sea level change. It represents the outcome of the first workshop held within the new ISSI Earth Science Programme. The workshop took place from 22 to 26 March, 2010, in Bern, Switzerland, with the objective of providing an in-depth insight into the future of mountain glaciers and the large land ice areas of Antarctica and Greenland, which are exposed to natural and anthropogenic climate influences, and their effects on sea level change. The participants of the workshop are experts in different fields including meteorology, climatology, oceanography, glaciology and geodesy; they use advanced space-based observational studies and state-of-the-art numerical modelling.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

February 2007: The Smithsonian Institute

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Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule C & D, three weeks each, tuition $550-$650.00, New Times in London $1,735.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi (reverse)

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule C & D, three weeks each, tuition $550-$650.00, New Times in London $1,735.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Don Adleta

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule A & B, tuition $410.00, Applied Semiotics for Design Seminar $625.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule B, C & D, tuition $450.00

Summer Institute for Graphic Design Studies / Nowroozi (reverse)

Summer Graphic Design workshops Co-sponsored by the Continuing Education Division and the Graphic Design Dept. Schedule B, C & D, tuition $450.00

Design of the main racetrack microtron accelerator end magnets of the Institute of Physics of University of São Paulo

This work deals with the design of the Institute of Physics of the University of São Paulo (IFUSP) main racetrack microtron accelerator end magnets. This is the last stage of acceleration, comprised of an accelerating section (1.04 m) and two end magnets (0.1585 T), in which a 5.10 MeV beam, produced by a racetrack microtron booster has its energy raised up to 31.15 MeV after 28 accelerations. POISSON code was used to give the final configuration that includes auxiliary pole pieces (clamps) and auxiliary homogenizing gaps. The clamps create a reverse fringe field region and avoid the vertical defocusing and the horizontal displacement of the beam produced by extended fringe fields; PTRACE code was used to perform the trajectory calculations in the fringe field region. The auxiliary homogenizing gaps improve the field uniformity as they create a magnetic shower that provides uniformity of ±0.3%, before the introduction of the correcting coils that will be attached to the pole faces. This method of correction, used in the IFUSP racetrack microtron booster magnets, enabled uniformity of ±0.001% in an average field of 0.1 T and will also be employed for these end magnets. © 1999 The American Physical Society.