995 resultados para Confidence interval
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Objective. The diagnostic value of tests for antimyeloperoxidase antibodies (anti-MPO) for systemic vasculitis is less established than that for cytoplasmic antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (cANCA)/antiproteinase 3 antibodies (anti-PR3). Controversy exists regarding the optimal utilization of indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) ANCA testing versus antigen-specific ANCA testing. To summarize the pertinent data, we conducted a metaanalysis examining the diagnostic value of ANCA testing systems that include assays for anti-MPO. Methods. We performed a structured Medline search and reference list review. Target articles in the search strategy were those reporting the diagnostic value of immunoassays for anti-MPO for the spectrum of systemic necrotizing vasculitides that includes Wegener's granulomatosis, microscopic polyangiitis, the Churg-Strauss syndrome, and isolated pauci-immune necrotizing or crescentic glomerulonephritis, regardless of other types of ANCA tests. Inclusion criteria required specification of a consecutive or random patient selection method and the use of acceptable criteria for the diagnosis of vasculitis exclusive of ANCA test results. Weighted pooled summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated for anti-MPO alone, anti-MPO + perinuclear ANCA (pANCA), and anti-MPO/pANCA + anti-PR3/cANCA. Results. Of 457 articles reviewed, only 7 met the selection criteria. Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity (against disease controls only) of assays for anti-MPO for the diagnosis of systemic necrotizing vasculitides were 37.1% (confidence interval 26.6% to 47.6%) and 96.3% (CI 94.1% to 98.5%), respectively. When the pANCA pattern by IIF was combined with anti-MPO testing, the specificity improved to 99.4%, with a lower sensitivity, 31.5%. The combined ANCA testing system (anti-PR3/cANCA + anti-MPO/pANCA) increased the sensitivity to 85.5% with a specificity of 98.6%. Conclusion. These results suggest that while anti-MPO is relatively specific for the diagnosis of systemic vasculitis, the combination system of immunoassays for anti-MPO and IIF for pANCA is highly specific and both tests should be used together given the high diagnostic precision required for these conditions. Because patients with ANCA associated vasculitis have either anti-MPO with pANCA or anti-PR3 with cANCA, and rarely both, a combined ANCA testing system including anti-PR3/cANCA and anti-MPO/pANCA is recommended to optimize the diagnostic performance of ANCA testing. (J Rheumatol 2001;28:1584-90)
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Background Previous studies have examined individual dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to type 2 diabetes, but the combined effects of these factors are largely unknown. Methods We followed 84,941 female nurses from 1980 to 1996; these women were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer at base line. Information about their diet and lifestyle was updated periodically. A low-risk group was defined according to a combination of five variables: a body-mass index (the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of less than 25; a diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load (which reflects the effect of diet on the blood glucose level); engagement in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity for at least half an hour per day; no current smoking; and the consumption of an average of at least half a drink of an alcoholic beverage per day. Results During 16 years of follow-up, we documented 3300 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Overweight or obesity was the single most important predictor of diabetes. Lack of exercise, a poor diet, current smoking, and abstinence from alcohol use were all associated with a significantly increased risk of diabetes, even after adjustment for the body-mass index. As compared with the rest of the cohort, women in the low-risk group (3.4 percent of the women) had a relative risk of diabetes of 0.09 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.05 to 0.17). A total of 91 percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort (95 percent confidence interval, 83 to 95 percent) could be attributed to habits and forms of behavior that did not conform to the low-risk pattern. Conclusions Our findings support the hypothesis that the majority of cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle.
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Functional significance has been demonstrated in vitro for the exon 3 T-->C Tyr113His amino acid substitution polymorphism of the microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX) gene. The higher activity or fast TT genotype was previously reported to be associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and this association may reflect enhanced activation of endogenous or exogenous substrates to more reactive and mutagenic derivatives. Components of cigarette smoke are examples of exogenous substrates subject to such bioactivation, and smoking exposure may thus modify the risk associated with the EPHX polymorphism. We examined 545 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 287 unaffected controls for this EPHXT-C genetic variant to investigate whether, in the Australian population, the TT genotype was associated with (i) specific ovarian tumor characteristics; (ii) risk of ovarian cancer, overall or for specific subgroups; and (iii) risk of ovarian cancer in smokers specifically. Genotyping was carried out using the Perkin-Elmer ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System for fluorogenic polymerase chain reaction allelic discrimination. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumor behavior (low malignant potential or invasive), grade, stage, and p53 immunohistochemical status failed to show any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the EPHX polymorphism. There was a suggestion of heterogeneity with respect to histologic subtype (P= 0.03), largely due to a decreased frequency of the TT genotype in endometrioid tumors. EPHX genotype distribution did not differ significantly between unaffected controls and ovarian cancer cases (overall, low malignant potential, or invasive) either overall or after stratification by smoking status. However, the TT genotype was associated with a decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer of the endometrioid subtype specifically (age-adjusted odds ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval=0.17-0.87). The results suggest that the proposed EPHX-mediated bioactivation of components of cigarette smoke to mutagenic forms is unlikely to be involved in the etiology of ovarian cancer in general but that a greater rate of EPHX-mediated detoxification may decrease the risk of endometrioid ovarian cancer. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Epidemiological studies suggest that ovarian cancer is an endocrine-related tumour, and progesterone exposure specifically may decrease the risk of ovarian cancer. To assess whether the progesterone receptor (PR) exon 4 valine to leucine amino acid variant is associated with specific tumour characteristics or with overall risk of ovarian cancer, we examined 551 cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and 298 unaffected controls for the underlying G-->T nucleotide substitution polymorphism. Stratification of the ovarian cancer cases according to tumour behaviour (low malignant potential or invasive), histology, grade or stage failed to reveal any heterogeneity with respect to the genotype defined by the PR exon 4 polymorphism. Furthermore, the genotype distribution did not differ significantly between ovarian cancer cases and unaffected controls. Compared with the GG genotype, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for risk of ovarian cancer was 0.78 (0.57-1.08) for the GT genotype, and 1.39 (0.47-4.14) for the TT genotype. In conclusion, the PR exon 4 codon 660 leucine variant encoded by the T allele does not appear to be associated with ovarian tumour behaviour, histology, stage or grade. This variant is also not associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer, and is unlikely to be associated with a large decrease in ovarian cancer risk, although we cannot rule out a moderate inverse association between the GT genotype and ovarian cancer.
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Although most prospective cohort studies do not support an association between coffee consumption and pancreatic cancer, the findings for alcohol are inconsistent. Recently, a large prospective cohort study of women reported statistically significant elevations in risk of pancreatic cancer for both coffee and alcoholic beverage consumption. We obtained data on coffee, alcohol, and other dietary factors using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires administered at baseline (1986 in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1980 in the Nurses’ Health Study) and in subsequent follow-up questionnaires. Data on other risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including cigarette smoking, were also available. Individuals with a history of cancer at study initiation were excluded from all of the analyses. During the 1,907,222 person-years of follow-up, 288 incident cases of pancreatic cancer were diagnosed. The data were analyzed separately for each cohort, and results were pooled to compute overall relative risks (RR). Neither coffee nor alcohol intakes were associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer in either cohort or after pooling the results (pooled RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.27–1.43, for >3 cups of coffee/day versus none; and pooled RR, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.57–1.76, for >=30 grams of alcohol/day versus none). The associations did not change with analyses examining different latency periods for coffee and alcohol. Similarly, no statistically significant associations were observed for intakes of tea, decaffeinated coffee, total caffeine, or alcoholic beverages. Data from these two large cohorts do not support any overall association between coffee intake or alcohol intake and risk of pancreatic cancer.
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Background: Burn care has changed considerably. Early surgery, nutritional support, improved resuscitation and novel skin replacement techniques are now well established. The aim of the study was to establish whether changes in management have improved survival following burn injury and to determine the contributory factors leading to non-survival. Methods: This was a retrospective outcome analysis of data collected from a consecutive series of 4094 patients with burns admitted to a tertiary referral, metropolitan teaching hospital between 1972 and 1996, Results: The overall mortality rate was 3.6 per cent. This decreased from 5.3 per cent (1972-1980) to 3.4 per cent (1993-1996) (P = 0.076). The risk of death was increased with increasing burn size (relative risk (RR) 95.90 (95 per cent confidence interval 12.60-729.47) if more than 35 per cent of the total body surface area was burned; P < 0.001) increasing age (RR 7.32 (3.08-17.42) if aged more than 48 years; P < 0.001), inhalation injury (RR 3.61 (2.39-5.47); P < 0.001) and female sex (RR 1.82 (1.23-2.69); P = 0.003). Operative intervention (RR 0.11 (0.06-0.21); P < 0.001) and the presence of an upper limb burn (RR 0.53 (0.35-0.79); P = 0.002) decreased the risk. Conclusion: Modern burn care has decreased the mortality rate. Increasing burn size, increasing age, inhalation injury and female sex increased, while operative intervention and an upper limb burn decreased, the risk of death.
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Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.
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Purpose: To assess the toxicity and the efficacy of preoperative radiotherapy with continuous infusion 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) for locally advanced adenocarcinoma of the rectum. Methods and Materials: Eligible patients had newly diagnosed localized adenocarcinoma of the rectum within 12 cm of the anal verge, Stage T3-4, and were suitable for curative resection. Eighty-two patients were treated with radiotherapy-50.4 Gy in 28 fractions in 5.6 weeks, given concurrently with continuous infusion 5-FU, using either 96-h/week infusion at 300 mg/m(2)/day or 7-days/week infusion at 225 mg/m(2)/day. Results: The median age was 59 years (range, 27-87), and 67% of patients were male. Pretreatment stages of the rectal cancer were T3, 89% and resectable T4, 11%, with endorectal ultrasound confirmation in 67% of patients. Grade 3 acute toxicity occurred in 5 of 82 patients (6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2-14%). Types of surgical resection were anterior resection, 61%; abdominoperineal resection, 35%; and other procedures, 4%. There was no operative mortality. Anastomotic leakage after low anterior resection occurred in 3 of 50 patients (6%; 95% CI, 1-17%). The pathologic complete response rate was 16% (95% CI, 9-26%). Pathologic Stages T2 or less occurred in 51%. Conclusion: Preoperative radiotherapy with continuous infusion 5-FU for locally advanced rectal cancer is a safe regimen, with a significant downstaging effect. It does not seem to lead to a significant increase in serious surgical complications. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc.
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The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.
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Background and aims: Recent studies on appendicectomy rates in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease have generally not addressed the effect of appendicectomy on disease characteristics. The aims of this study were to compare appendicectomy rates in Australian inflammatory bowel disease patients and matched controls, and to evaluate the effect of prior appendicectomy on disease characteristics. Methods: Patients were ascertained from the Brisbane Inflammatory Bowel Disease database. Controls matched for age and sex were randomly selected from the Australian Twin Registry. Disease characteristics included age at diagnosis, disease site, need for immunosuppression, and intestinal resection. Results: The study confirmed the significant negative association between appendicectomy and ulcerative colitis (odds ratio (OR) 0.23, 95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.14-0.38; p
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The incidence of melanoma increases markedly in the second decade of life but almost nothing is known of the causes of melanoma in this age group. We report on the first population-based case-control study of risk factors for melanoma in adolescents (15-19 years). Data were collected through personal interviews with cases, controls and parents. A single examiner conducted full-body nevus counts and blood samples were collected from cases for analysis of the CDKN2A melanoma predisposition gene. A total of 201 (80%) of the 250 adolescents with melanoma diagnosed between 1987 and 1994 and registered with the Queensland Cancer Registry and 205 (79%) of 258 age-, gender- and location-matched controls who were contacted agreed to participate. The strongest risk factor associated with melanoma in adolescents in a multivariate model was the presence of more than 100 nevi 2 mm or more in diameter (odds ratio [OR] = 46.5, 95% confidence interval [Cl] = 11.4-190.8). Other risk factors were red hair (OR = 5.4, 95%Cl = 1.0-28.4); blue eyes (OR = 4.5, 95%Cl = 1.5- 13.6); inability to tan after prolonged sun exposure (OR = 4.7, 95%Cl = 0.9-24.6); heavy facial freckling (OR = 3.2, 95% Cl = 0.9-12.3); and family history of melanoma (OR = 4.0, 95%Cl = 0.8-18.9). Only 2 of 147 cases tested had germline variants or mutations in CDKN2A. There was no association with sunscreen use overall, however, never/rare use of sunscreen at home under the age of 5 years was associated with increased risk (OR = 2.2, 95%Cl = 0.7-7.1). There was no difference between cases and controls in cumulative sun exposure in this high-exposure environment. Factors indicating genetic susceptibility to melanoma, in particular, the propensity to develop nevi and freckles, red hair, blue eyes, inability to tan and a family history of the disease are the primary determinants of melanoma among adolescents in this high solar radiation environment. Lack of association with reported sun exposure is consistent with the high genetic susceptibility in this group. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.
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Image : To assess the potential for sucralfate administered rectally to reduce the risk of late rectal morbidity in patients undergoing nonconformal radiotherapy (RT) for carcinoma of the prostate and to study the variables potentially contributing to late rectal morbidity and particularly to explore the relationship between acute and late toxicity. Image : Eighty-six patients with localized prostate carcinoma were randomized in a double-blind, placebo-controlled study to a daily enema of 3 g of sucralfate in a 15-mL suspension or the same suspension without sucralfate. The enema began the first day of RT and was continued for 2 weeks after treatment completion. The primary end point of the study was acute Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG)/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) toxicity; however, the patients were followed for an additional 5 years on a 6-month basis. The evaluation included late RTOG/EORTC toxicity and a patient self-assessment questionnaire. Image : With a median follow-up of 5 years, the Kaplan-Meier probability of late Grade 2 RTOG/EORTC toxicity was 12% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2–22%) for placebo and 5% (95% CI 0–12%) for sucralfate (p = 0.26). The probability of late rectal bleeding was 59% (95% CI 45–73%) for placebo and 54% (95% CI 40–68%) for sucralfate. No statistically significant difference was found between the treatment arms for the peak incidence of any of the other patient self-assessment variables. Cox proportional hazards modeling indicated acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity of Grade 2 or greater was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.74 (95% CI 1.31–5.73) for the development of late toxicity of Grade 1 or greater. Substituting the patient self-assessment variables for acute RTOG/EORTC toxicity revealed that rectal pain of a moderate or severe grade during RT was the best predictor of the subsequent development of late toxicity, with a hazard ratio of 3.44 (95% CI 1.68–7). Image : The results of this study do not support the use of sucralfate administered rectally as a method for reducing the late toxicity of nonconformal RT for prostate cancer. There appears to be an association between the development of acute and subsequent late toxicity, although the nature of this association remains to be determined
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Iron homeostasis is altered in Parkinson's disease (PD). The HFE protein is an important regulator of cellular iron homeostasis and variations within this gene can result in iron overload and the disorder known as hereditary haemochromatosis. We studied the Cys282Tyr single nucleotide polymorphism as a genetic risk factor for PD in two distinct and separately collected cohorts of Australian PD patients and controls. In the combined cohort comprising 438 PD patients and 485 control subjects, we revealed an odds ratio for possession of the 282Tyr allele of 0.61 (95% confidence interval, Cl = 0.42-0.90, P = 0.011) from univariate chi-squared and 0.59 (95% Cl = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.014) after logistic regression analyses (correcting for potential confounding factors). These results suggest that possession of the 282Tyr allele may offer some protection against the development of PD. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The risk of cardiac events in patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery is dependent on their clinical characteristics and the results of stress testing. The purpose of this study was to develop a composite approach to defining levels of risk and to examine whether different approaches to prophylaxis influenced this prediction of outcome. One hundred forty-five consecutive patients (aged 68 +/- 9 years, 79 men) with >1 clinical risk variable were studied with standard dobutamine-atropine stress echo before major noncardiac surgery. Risk levels were stratified according to the presence of ischemia (new or worsening wall motion abnormality), ischemic threshold (heart rate at development of ischemia), and number of clinical risk variables. Patients were followed for perioperative events (during hospital admission) and death or infarction over the subsequent 16 10 months. Ten perioperative events occurred in 105 patients who proceeded to surgery (10%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5% to 17%), 40 being cancelled because of cardiac or other risk. No ischemia was identified in 56 patients, 1 of whom (1.8%) had a perioperative infarction. Of the 49 patients with ischemia, 22 (45%) had 1 or 2 clinical risk factors; 2 (9%, 95% CI 1% to 29%) had events. Another 15 patients had a high ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 3 (20%, 95% Cl 4% to 48%) had events. Twelve patients had a low ischemic threshold and 3 or 4 risk factors; 4 (33%, 95% CI 10% to 65%) had events. Preoperative myocardial revascularization was performed in only 3 patients, none of whom had events. Perioperative and long-term events occurred despite the use of beta blockers; 7 of 41 eta blocker-treated patients had a perioperative event (17%, 95% CI 7% to 32%); these treated patients were at higher anticipated risk than untreated patients (20 +/- 24% vs 10 +/- 19%, p = 0.02). The total event rate over late follow-up was 13%, and was predicted by dobutamine-atropine stress echo results and heart rate response. (C) 2002 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.