Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

The impact of social competence between physical activity and motor performance

Objective: To identify the association of low physical activity (PA) participation in children with various motor performances (MP) and to establish the impact of social competence (SC). Methods: Sixth grade children from PHAST study at Brock University (n=1958; 50.53% males) had MP test results from Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency, Participation Questionnaire (PQ) used for PA and Harter Social Competence Scale for self-perceived SC. Comparative tests, multiple and logistic regressions were performed. Results: Significant differences in PQ measures in MP quartiles and SCs. MP and SC are independent predictors of PA (p<.05) except with SES on free play activity, making MP not significant. Lower MP increased the odds of low total PA and organized sport participation but not for free play activities (OR~1). Higher SC reduced the risk of low participation in all PA measures. Conclusions: SC improves PA participation, including free play and organized sports, despite the child’s MP.

Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

The Mediating Role of Perceived Scholastic Competence in the Relationship Between Motor Coordination and Academic Performance

Children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) are often referred to as clumsy because of their compromised motor coordination. Clumsiness and slow movement performances while scripting in children with DCD often result in poor academic performance and a diminished sense of scholastic competence. This study purported to examine the mediating role of perceived scholastic competence in the relationship between motor coordination and academic performance in children in grade six. Children receive a great deal of comparative information on their academic performances, which influence a student's sense of scholastic competence and self-efficacy. The amount of perceived academic self-efficacy has significant impact on academic performance, their willingness to complete academic tasks, and their self-motivation to improve where necessary. Independent t-tests reveal a significant difference (p < .001) between DCD and non-DCD groups when compared against their overall grade six average with the DCD group performing significantly lower. Independent t-tests found no significant difference between DCD and non-DCD groups for perceived scholastic competence. However, multiple linear regression analysis revealed a significant mediating role of 15% by perceived scholastic competence when examining the relationship between motor coordination and academic performance. While children with probable DCD may not rate their perceived scholastic competence as less than their healthy peers, there is a significant mediating effect on their academic performance.

Évaluation neurobiologique des souris spontanément hypertendues : Du vieillissement à la génomique comparative

Le but de cette thèse est premièrement d’évaluer l’effet du vieillissement sur les fonctions psychomotrices des souches de souris sélectionnées génétiquement en fonction de leur tension artérielle (TA); deuxièmement, de localiser les déterminants génétiques des phénotypes psychophysiologiques à partir de souches recombinantes congéniques (RCS). Ces travaux ont mené à la publication de 4 articles. Le premier article décrit l’évaluation des fonctions psychomotrices des souches avec une tension artérielle élevée (HBP), basse (LBP) et normale (NBP). La performance aux épreuves d’exploration, d’habiletés motrices et d’apprentissage spatial, a été mesurée sur deux cohortes âgées respectivement de 12 mois et de trois mois. Indépendamment de l’âge, les HBPs sont hyperactives dans l’open-field (OF), mais pas dans le test d’exploration de trous. Inversement, les LBP explorent moins d’espaces que les NBP et, à trois mois seulement, sont hypoactives dans l’OF. Par ailleurs, les HBPs et les LBP présentent des déficits précoces de coordination motrice et des fonctions visuo-motrices. Le second article concerne l’évaluation longitudinale de la coordination motrice, de l’anxiété et de l’apprentissage spatial des souches HBP, LBP et NBP, à l’âge de deux mois et de 12 mois. Le vieillissement accentue l’hyperactivité des HBPs dans l’OF. Par contre, l’hypoactivité des souris LBP est détectable seulement à l’âge de deux mois. Indépendamment de l’âge, les souris HBP et LBP montrent une perception réduite du danger dans l’épreuve d’anxiété et des dysfonctions visuo-motrices au labyrinthe aquatique. Enfin, des déficits précoces de coordination motrice se manifestent seulement chez les HBPs. Il reste à déterminer si les déficits observés sont liés à des déterminants génétiques indépendants ou secondaires aux altérations de la tension artérielle. Le troisième article présente la comparaison entre les souches consanguines A/J et C57Bl/6J (B6) aux épreuves de l’OF, de la planche à trous, du labyrinthe aquatique et du cintre (coordination motrice). Les B6 explore d’avantage l’OF et la planche à trous. Les B6 sont moins rapides sur le cintre, mais supérieurs aux A/J dans le labyrinthe aquatique, avec une plate-forme invisible ou visible. Ces résultats démontrent l’implication de déterminants génétiques. Cette thèse se termine par un quatrième article sur la localisation des déterminants génétiques de la susceptibilité au stress dans les RCS, dérivées de A/J et B6, et présentant un agencement spécifique de 12.5% du génome. La réactivité émotionnelle est évaluée dans l’OF et le plus-maze; la réponse de stress est mesurée par radio télémétrie de la température interne pendant le stress d’immobilisation (SI) sous diète régulière et riche en sel; l’excrétion des électrolytes urinaires est dosée après 24 heures de diète salée. Les loci les plus significatifs sont situés dans les régions suivantes: de l’émotionalité dans l’OF (Emo1) sur le chr. 1 (LOD=4.6) correspondant à la région homologue impliquée dans la cohorte d’hypertension familiale du Saguenay; de la dopa décarboxylase (ddc) sur le chr. 11 pour l’émergence du plus-maze (LOD=4.7); de la protéine liant l’endotoxine (lbp) sur le chr. 2 pour l’hypothermie initiale en réponse au SI (LOD=4); et de HSP90 sur le chr. 12 pour l’excrétion de Ca++ (LOD=4.6). Des banques de données sont ensuite interrogées pour recenser les polymorphismes des régions régulatrices ou codantes des gènes candidats chez les souches ancestrales A/J et B6, dont les séquences sont disponibles pour le génome entier. Des utilitaires web permettent de dévoiler les changements dans la structure secondaire de l’ARNm, l’interférence avec des microARN ou avec d’autres motifs de liaison. Plusieurs SNPs fonctionnels ont été identifiés pour le QTL du chr. 1, particulièrement dans les éléments de régulation; ceux-ci impliquant des gènes reliés avec les réponses inflammatoire/immunitaire ou avec le système cardiovasculaire. La quantification par la PCR confirme une régulation à la baisse d’atp1a2 dans le cœur et le cerveau des souches susceptibles à l’anxiété. Ces résultats confirment l’intrication des altérations de la susceptibilité au stress et de la régulation de la TA.

Comparative safety respiratory pharmacology : validation of a head-out plethysmograph – pneumotachometer testing device in male Sprague–Dawley rats, Beagle dogs and Cynomolgus monkeys

Le but de cette étude était d’évaluer les qualifications de performance du système FlexiWare® chez le rat male Sprague Dawley et le singe Cynomolgus éveillés, ainsi que chez le chien Beagle éveillé et anesthésié, suite à l’administration de produits ayant une activité pharmacologique connue. Les produits utilisés incluaient l’albutérol administré par inhalation, la méthacholine, et le rémifentanil administrés par voie intraveineuse. Une solution saline administré par voie intraveneuse, a été utilisée comme substance témoin. Différentes variables ont servi à évaluer la réponse des animaux (rats, chien, singe). Ces dernières comprenaient la fréquence respiratoire (RR), le volume courant (TV), la ventilation minute (MV). Des paramètres additionnels ont été évalués chez le rat, soit les temps d’inspiration (IT) et d’expiration (ET), le temps du pic de débit expiratoire, les pics de débits inspiratoire et expiratoire, le ratio inspiratoire:expiratoire (I:E), le ratio inspiratoire sur respiration totale (I:TB), et l’écoulement expiratoire moyen (EF50). Les résultats obtenus ont démontré que le système FlexiWare® était suffisamment sensible et spécifique pour dépister, chez les espèces animales utilisées, les effets bronchodilateur, bronchoconstricteur et dépresseur central des substances testées. Il pourrait faire partie des méthodes (ICH 2000) utilisées en pharmacologie de sécurité lors de l’évaluation de substances pharmacologiques sur le système respiratoire des animaux de laboratoire. Les espèces animales utilisées ont semblé s’adapter aisément aux procédures de contention. Les paramètres évalués, RR, TV et MV ont permis de caractériser la réponse des animaux suite à l’administration de produits pharmacologiques à effets connus, judicieusement complétés par les variables de débit. L’ajout de paramètres du temps n’était pas primordiale pour détecter les effets des drogues, mais offre des outils complémentaires d’interpréter les changements physiologiques. Cependant, chez le rat conscient, la période d’évaluation ne devrait pas s’étendre au-delà d’une période de deux heures post traitement. Ces études constituent une évaluation des qualifications de performance de cet appareil et ont démontré de manière originale, la validation concurrentielle, en terme de précision (sensibilité et spécificité) et fiabilité pour différentes variables et sur différentes espèces.

Étude comparative de l'imagerie dans l'évaluation de l'ostéoarthrose du grasset chez le cheval

Les objectifs de cette étude étaient (1) de décrire la localisation et la sévérité des lésions d’ostéoarthrose (OA) chroniques acquises naturellement au niveau du grasset équin grâce à l’échographie (US), la radiographie (XR), la tomodensitométrie (CT) et l’évaluation macroscopique (ME), (2) de comparer la performance diagnostique de chacune des modalities d’imagerie avec ME et (3) d’évaluer quantitativement la densité osseuse sous-chondrale lors d’OA du grasset chez le cheval à la tomodensitométrie. Des évaluations post mortem radiographique, tomodensitométrique et échographique ont été réalisées sur 23 grassets cadavériques et comparées à l’évaluation macroscopique. Des associations significatives ont été notées entre le «osteophytes global score» de toutes les modalités (US, p=0.04; XR, p=0.005; CT, p˂0.0001) et ME. De plus, la tomodensitométrie a démontré la plus forte association. Les ostéophytes étaient principalement localisés au niveau de l’articulation fémorotibiale médiale et cette articulation présentait également les scores d’ostéophytes les plus sévères. Un patron spécifique d’ostéophytes associé à l’insertion de la capsule articulaire sur le condyle fémoral médial a été mis en évidence. La nouvelle projection radiographique (Ca10Pr5L-CrDiMO) a été utile dans la détection des ostéophytes de la région intercondylaire. Les grades d’ostéophytes (0-3) ne différaient pas significativement selon la modalité dans la majorité des sites. La faible sensibilité/spécificité a indiqué que la sclérose de l’os sous-chondral et l’applatissement des condyles fémoraux ne semblent pas être des indicateurs fiables d’OA du grasset équin. L’OA du grasset équin est associée à une réduction de la densité osseuse sous-chondrale et des sites spécifiques de résorption/kystes sous-chondraux ont été notés chez certains spécimens.

Capital expenditure decision in private and public sector entreprises in India A comparative evaluation

This study is focussed on public and private sector The study is confined to industrial Public companies in the states of Kerala and Orissa along with companies in India. undertakings only. sector and private sector private sector companies in other states were studied. Even though the original plan of 190 companies as the sample size could not be accomplished, as the responses were very poor, but data could be collected frmn 6 public and 5 private sector companies in Kerala, 8 public and 8 private sector companies in Orissa along with 27 private sector companies in other states totalling to 54 companies. The number of years of data collected varies from 2 years to 6 years. Factors which are affecting capital expenditures and hence leading to the performance of private sector compared to public sector companies are studied. After the study and analysis, comparisons are made between public sector and private sector, and suitable recomendations are made so that public sector industries can also perform equally well as the private sector industries in India.

A Study Of The Textile Industry In Kerala With Comparative Reference To Tamil Nadu

. The cotton mill industry is one of the important medium and large-scale industries in the State of Kerala. Due to the widespread development of the handloom industry in the State, there is an environment conducive to the growth of cotton spinning mills which produce yarn, the raw material required by the handloom industry. New spin— ing mills are being commissioned. But the performance of the existing cotton spinning and weaving mills in the State is not quite satisfactory. Hence an analysis has been carried out into the profitability and financial position of the industry in Kerala. The objective of the study is to make a financial analysis of the industry covering various aspects such as cost structure, productivity, asset structure, financial structure and working capital management.

Comparative effectiveness of solar disinfection using small-scale batch reactors with reflective, absorptive and transmissive rear surfaces

This study investigated the enhancement of solar disinfection using custom-made batch reactors with reflective (foil-backed) or absorptive (black-backed) rear surfaces, under a range of weather conditions in India. Plate counts of Escherichia coli ATCC11775 were made under aerobic conditions and under conditions where reactive oxygen species (ROS) were neutralised, i.e. in growth medium supplemented with 0.05% w/v sodium pyruvate plus incubation under anaerobic conditions. While the addition of either an absorptive or a reflective backing enhanced reactor performance under strong sunlight, the reflective reactor was the only system to show consistent enhancement under low sunlight, where the process was slowest. Counts performed under ROS-neutralised conditions were slightly higher than those in air, indicating that a fraction of the cells become sub-lethally injured during exposure to sunlight to the extent that they were unable to grow aerobically. However, the influence of this phenomenon on the dynamics of inactivation was relatively small

Effect of management strategies on the performance of ruminant livestock production systems and the safety of plant and animal products in the city of Sikasso, Mali

The regional population growth in West Africa, and especially its urban centers, will bring about new and critical challenges for urban development policy, especially in terms of ensuring food security and providing employment for the growing population. (Peri-) urban livestock and vegetable production systems, which can contribute significantly to these endeavours, are limited by various constraints, amongst them limited access to expensive production factors and their (in)efficient use. To achieve sustainable production systems with low consumer health risks, that can meet the urban increased demand, this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative (peri-) urban livestock production systems in three West African cities, and investigated potential health risks for consumers ensuing from there. The field study, which was conducted during July 2007 to December 2009, undertook a comparative analysis of (peri-) urban livestock production strategies across 210 livestock keeping households (HH) in the three West African cities of Kano/Nigeria (84 HH), Bobo Dioulasso/Burkina Faso (63 HH) and Sikasso/Mali (63 HH). These livestock enterprises were belonging to the following three farm types: commercial gardening plus field crops and livestock (cGCL; 88 HH), commercial livestock plus subsistence field cropping (cLsC; 109 HH) and commercial gardening plus semi-commercial livestock (cGscL; 13 HH) which had been classified in a preceding study; they represented the diversity of (peri-) urban livestock production systems in West Africa. In the study on the efficiency of ruminant livestock production, lactating cowsand sheep herd units were differentiated based on whether feed supplements were offered to the animals at the homestead (Go: grazing only; Gsf: mainly grazing plus some supplement feeding). Inflows and outflows of nutrients were quantified in these herds during 18 months, and the effects of seasonal variations in nutrient availability on animals’ productivity and reproductive performance was determined in Sikasso. To assess the safety of animal products and vegetables, contamination sources of irrigated lettuce and milk with microbiological contaminants, and of tomato and cabbage with pesticide residues in (peri-) urban agriculture systems of Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso were characterized at three occasions in 2009. Samples of irrigation water, organic fertilizer and ix lettuce were collected in 6 gardens, and samples of cabbage and tomato in 12 gardens; raw and curdled milk were sampled in 6 dairy herds. Information on health risks for consumers of such foodstuffs was obtained from 11 health centers in Sikasso. In (peri-) urban livestock production systems, sheep and goats dominated (P<0.001) in Kano compared to Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso, while cattle and poultry were more frequent (P<0.001) in Bobo Dioulasso and Sikasso than in Kano. Across cities, ruminant feeding relied on grazing and homestead supplementation with fresh grasses, crop residues, cereal brans and cotton seed cake; cereal grains and brans were the major ingredients of poultry feeds. There was little association of gardens and livestock; likewise field cropping and livestock were rarely integrated. No relation existed between the education of the HH head and the adoption of improved management practices (P>0.05), but the proportion of HH heads with a long-term experience in (peri-) urban agriculture was higher in Kano and in Bobo Dioulasso than in Sikasso (P<0.001). Cattle and sheep fetched highest market prices in Kano; unit prices for goats and chicken were highest in Sikasso. Animal inflow, outflow and dairy herd growth rates were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the Gsf than in the Go cattle herds. Maize bran and cottonseed expeller were the main feeds offered to Gsf cows as dry-season supplement, while Gsf sheep received maize bran, fresh grasses and cowpea pods. The short periodic transhumance of Go dairy cows help them maintaining their live weight, whereas Gsf cows lost weight during the dry season despite supplement feeding at a rate of 1506 g dry matter per cow and day, resulting in low productivity and reproductive performance. The daily live weight gains of calves and lambs, respectively, were low and not significantly different between the Go and the Gsf system. However, the average live weight gains of lambs were significantly higher in the dry season (P<0.05) than in the rainy season because of the high pressure of gastrointestinal parasites and of Trypanosoma sp. In consequence, 47% of the sheep leaving the Go and Gsf herds died due to diseases during the study period. Thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli contamination levels of irrigation water significantly exceeded WHO recommendations for the unrestricted irrigation of vegetables consumed raw. Microbial contamination levels of lettuce at the farm gate and the market place in Bobo Dioulasso and at the farm gate in Sikasso were higher than at the market place in Sikasso (P<0.05). Pesticide residues were detected in only one cabbage and one tomato sample and were below the maximum residue limit for consumption. Counts of thermo-tolerant coliforms and Escherichia coli were higher in curdled than in raw milk (P<0.05). From 2006 to x 2009, cases of diarrhea/vomiting and typhoid fever had increased by 11% and 48%, respectively, in Sikasso. For ensuring economically successful and ecologically viable (peri-) urban livestock husbandry and food safety of (peri-) urban foodstuffs of animal and plant origin, the dissemination and adoption of improved feeding practices, livestock healthcare and dung management are key. In addition, measures fostering the safety of animal products and vegetables including the appropriate use of wastewater in (peri-) urban agriculture, restriction to approve vegetable pesticides and the respect of their latency periods, and passing and enforcement of safety laws is required. Finally, the incorporation of environmentally sound (peri-) urban agriculture in urban planning by policy makers, public and private extension agencies and the urban farmers themselves is of utmost importance. To enable an efficient (peri-) urban livestock production in the future, research should concentrate on cost-effective feeding systems that allow meeting the animals’ requirement for production and reproduction. Thereby focus should be laid on the use of crop-residues and leguminous forages. The improvement of the milk production potential through crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with exotic breeds known for their high milk yield might be an accompanying option, but it needs careful supervision to prevent the loss of the local trypanotolerant purebreds.

Comparative effect of root-knot nematode on severity of Verticillium and Fusarium wilt in cotton

The effect of root-knot nematode (RKN) (Meloidogyne incognita) on Verticillium dahliae and Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. vasinfectum in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) was investigated. Two different inoculation methods were used, one in which inoculum was added to the soil, so that nematode and fungal inoculum were in close proximity; the other, inoculation into the stem, whereby the two inocula were spatially separated. Invasion of the roots by RKN enhanced disease severity, as measured by the height of vascular browning in the stem, following inoculation with either wilt pathogen. The effect of RKN on Fusarium wilt was more pronounced than that on Verticillium wilt. Nematode-enhanced infection by F. oxysporum is a well known effect but there are few reports of enhanced infection by Verticillium due to RKN. Relative resistance of a number of cotton cultivars to both wilt diseases, as measured by height of vascular browning, was similar to the known field performance of the cultivars. The use of vascular browning as an estimate of disease severity was therefore validated.

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

Identification of lipophilic flavones and flavonols by comparative HPLC, TLC and UV spectral analysis

The identification of lipophilic flavones and flavonols using a combination of high performance liquid chromatography, thin layer chromatography and UV spectral analysis is discussed. Data are provided for the flavones, apigenin, luteolin and tricetin and twelve of their methyl ethers, 8-hydroxyluteolin, 6-hydroxyluteolin and scutellarein and fourteen of their methyl ethers, and some 6,8-dihydroxyapigenin and 6,8-dihydroxyluteolin derivatives. Data for some forty two flavonols with extra 6- and/or 8-hydroxylation, mostly 6-hydroxykaempferol and quercetagetin derivatives, are also presented. The remaining compounds analysed include fourteen 5-deoxyflavones, four 5-methoxyflavones and five 5-deoxyflavonols plus further 5-hydroxylated flavones and flavonols without B-ring oxidation or with 2-, 5- or 6-hydroxylation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.