259 resultados para Cointegração de Johansen


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The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present data set presents depth integrated values of diazotrophs abundance and biomass, computed from a collection of source data sets.

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Oceans are experiencing increasing acidification in parallel to a distinct warming trend in consequence of ongoing climate change. Rising seawater temperatures are mediating a northward shift in distribution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), into the habitat of polar cod (Boreogadus saida), that is associated with retreating cold water masses. This study investigates the competitive strength of the co-occurring gadoids under ocean acidification and warming (OAW) scenarios. Therefore, we incubated specimens of both species in individual tanks for 4 months, under different control and projected temperatures (polar cod: 0, 3, 6, 8 °C, Atlantic cod: 3, 8, 12, 16 °C) and PCO2 conditions (390 and 1170 µatm) and monitored growth, feed consumption and standard metabolic rate. Our results revealed distinct temperature effects on both species. While hypercapnia by itself had no effect, combined drivers caused nonsignificant trends. The feed conversion efficiency of normocapnic polar cod was highest at 0 °C, while optimum growth performance was attained at 6 °C; the long-term upper thermal tolerance limit was reached at 8 °C. OAW caused only slight impairments in growth performance. Under normocapnic conditions, Atlantic cod consumed progressively increasing amounts of feed than individuals under hypercapnia despite maintaining similar growth rates during warming. The low feed conversion efficiency at 3 °C may relate to the lower thermal limit of Atlantic cod. In conclusion, Atlantic cod displayed increased performance in the warming Arctic such that the competitive strength of polar cod is expected to decrease under future OAW conditions.

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The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

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The Luce newsreel was a fascist-pivotal propaganda instrument. Mussolini thought movies were the strongestweapon; however, the efficiency of cinematographic propaganda on people did not work as well as expected,especially nonfiction. This article intends to value, through oral testimonies, the influence of Lucenewsreel on the Italian population during fascism, the degree of truth of film news, and which of those piecesof news were more repeated, as well as the influence of the Italian and its leader image on the collective mind.

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Historically, Salome was an unexceptional figure who never catalyzed John the Baptist's death. However, in Christian Scripture, she becomes the dancing seductress as fallen daughter of Eve.  Her stepfather Herod promises Salome his kingdom if she dances for him, but she follows her mother’s wish to have John beheaded. In Strauss’s opera, after Wilde's Symbolist-Decadent play, Salome becomes independent of Herodias’ will, and the mythic avatar of the femme fatale and persecuted artist who Herod has killed after she kisses John's severed head.  Her signature key of C# major, resolving to the C major sung by Herod and Jokanaan at her death, represent her tragic fate musically.

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Over the last decade, ocean sunfish movements have been monitored worldwide using various satellite tracking methods. This study reports the near-real time monitoring of fine-scale (< 10 m) behaviour of sunfish. The study was conducted in southern Portugal in May 2014 and involved satellite tags and underwater and surface robotic vehicles to measure both the movements and the contextual environment of the fish. A total of four individuals were tracked using custom-made GPS satellite tags providing geolocation estimates of fine-scale resolution. These accurate positions further informed sunfish areas of restricted search (ARS), which were directly correlated to steep thermal frontal zones. Simultaneously, and for two different occasions, an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) video-recorded the path of the tracked fish and detected buoyant particles in the water column. Importantly, the densities of these particles were also directly correlated to steep thermal gradients. Thus, both sunfish foraging behaviour (ARS) and possibly prey densities, were found to be influenced by analogous environmental conditions. In addition, the dynamic structure of the water transited by the tracked individuals was described by a Lagrangian modelling approach. The model informed the distribution of zooplankton in the region, both horizontally and in the water column, and the resultant simulated densities positively correlated with sunfish ARS behaviour estimator (rs = 0.184, p<0.001). The model also revealed that tracked fish opportunistically displace with respect to subsurface current flow. Thus, we show how physical forcing and current structure provide a rationale for a predator’s fine-scale behaviour observed over a two weeks in May 2014.

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Over the last decade, ocean sunfish movements have been monitored worldwide using various satellite tracking methods. This study reports the near-real time monitoring of fine-scale (< 10 m) behaviour of sunfish. The study was conducted in southern Portugal in May 2014 and involved satellite tags and underwater and surface robotic vehicles to measure both the movements and the contextual environment of the fish. A total of four individuals were tracked using custom-made GPS satellite tags providing geolocation estimates of fine-scale resolution. These accurate positions further informed sunfish areas of restricted search (ARS), which were directly correlated to steep thermal frontal zones. Simultaneously, and for two different occasions, an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) video-recorded the path of the tracked fish and detected buoyant particles in the water column. Importantly, the densities of these particles were also directly correlated to steep thermal gradients. Thus, both sunfish foraging behaviour (ARS) and possibly prey densities, were found to be influenced by analogous environmental conditions. In addition, the dynamic structure of the water transited by the tracked individuals was described by a Lagrangian modelling approach. The model informed the distribution of zooplankton in the region, both horizontally and in the water column, and the resultant simulated densities positively correlated with sunfish ARS behaviour estimator (rs = 0.184, p<0.001). The model also revealed that tracked fish opportunistically displace with respect to subsurface current flow. Thus, we show how physical forcing and current structure provide a rationale for a predator’s fine-scale behaviour observed over a two weeks in May 2014.

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In Marxist frameworks “distributive justice” depends on extracting value through a centralized state. Many new social movements—peer to peer economy, maker activism, community agriculture, queer ecology, etc.—take the opposite approach, keeping value in its unalienated form and allowing it to freely circulate from the bottom up. Unlike Marxism, there is no general theory for bottom-up, unalienated value circulation. This paper examines the concept of “generative justice” through an historical contrast between Marx’s writings and the indigenous cultures that he drew upon. Marx erroneously concluded that while indigenous cultures had unalienated forms of production, only centralized value extraction could allow the productivity needed for a high quality of life. To the contrary, indigenous cultures now provide a robust model for the “gift economy” that underpins open source technological production, agroecology, and restorative approaches to civil rights. Expanding Marx’s concept of unalienated labor value to include unalienated ecological (nonhuman) value, as well as the domain of freedom in speech, sexual orientation, spirituality and other forms of “expressive” value, we arrive at an historically informed perspective for generative justice. 

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I en organisation belägen på Dalarnas landsbygd framkommer det i en medarbetarundersökning att ett ökande missnöje finns hos de anställda, där flera av problemen kan kopplas till den kraftiga expansion som organisationen just nu genomgår. Även en positiv organisationsförändring som tillväxt kan alltså bidra till problem hos de anställda. Denna studie har avsett att undersöka vilka utmaningar och möjligheter som upplevs hos de anställda i organisationen kopplat till den tillväxtfas de genomgår. Detta genom åtta djupintervjuer där urvalet var såväl chefer, medarbetare som HR-ansvariga. Utifrån respondenternas upplevelse av situationen fann vi fyra stora problemområden; avsaknad av gemensamma rutiner, otydliga roller, bristfällig information och kommunikation samt brist på proaktivt arbete för att säkerställa medarbetarnas kompetens. Vårt empiriska material tyder på att organisationen har ett gap när det kommer till utvecklingen av såväl de mänskliga resurserna, arbetssystem som ledarskapet. Antalet anställda ökar i en högre takt än organisationens infrastrukturella processer, något som kan ses som en organisatorisk växtvärk. Med utgångspunkt från resultatet ger vi förslag på vilka aktiviteter HR-funktionen bör fokusera på. För att bemöta utvecklingsgapet samt förhindra att fler växtvärkssymptom uppstår anser vi att HR bör fokusera på ett proaktivt arbete. En nyckelfaktor som vi genom vår utvecklade modell visar är att ledaren är av stor vikt för hur organisationen och dess medarbetare hanterar en växtvärkssituation. HR bör därför ha en klar bild över vilket stöd verksamhetens ledare behöver för att kunna skapa värde för organisationen, ledarna och medarbetarna. Några generella förslag på HR-aktiviteter går däremot inte att ge eftersom, precis som tidigare forskning visar, verksamheters individuella situation och kontext avgör vilka aktiviteter som är aktuella.

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Ce mémoire étudie de façon empirique l'effet des dépenses publiques en biens et services sur le PIB à court et à long terme. Le sujet nous semble particulièrement pertinent dans le contexte de restrictions budgétaires qui est le nôtre. Dans une première étape, nous estimons les relations à court terme entre les dépenses publiques en biens et services G, le produit intérieur brut PIB et la masse monétaire M en mode bi-varié. Un modèle VAR en différence et des données trimestrielles pour la période 1947-1994 et les sous-périodes de change fixe (1947-1970) et de change flexible (1970-1994) sont utilisées. Nos résultats semblent confirmer la validité du modèle IS-LM-BP en économie ouverte avec mobilité des capitaux. À ce sujet, la distinction change fixe/change flexible s'est avérée cruciale. Les modèles de cycles réels ne peuvent expliquer nos résultats de manière satisfaisante, en particulier en ce qui a trait au rôle de la monnaie et au régime de taux de change. Dans une deuxième étape, nous estimons les relations à long terme entre les variables G et PIB au moyen de la procédure de cointégration proposée par Juselius et Johansen (1990). Nos résultats révèlent l'existence de relations stables à long terme entre les variables G et PIB, ce qui ouvre d'intéressantes perspectives. Entre autres, nos travaux confirment de façon empirique la loi de Wagner. De plus, le processus de socialisation de la fonction de production envisagée par Wagner, Schumpeter et d'autres semble toujours être à l'oeuvre.

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Résumé : Ce document examine l'effet de la dette publique et du développement monétaire étranger (taux de change et taux d'intérêt étranger) sur la demande de monnaie de long-terme. Le déficit budgétaire est utilisé comme mesure de la dette publique. Cette étude est menée sur cinq pays industrialisés: le Canada, les États-Unis, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France. Le modèle multivarié de cointégration de Johansen & Juselius (1990) est utilisé pour établir le lien entre ces trois variables et la demande de monnaie. Ce modèle examine indirectement deux effets: les effets du déficit budgétaire sur le taux d'intérêt et du développement monétaire étranger sur le taux d'intérêt, à travers la demande de monnaie. L'évidence d'une relation de cointégration entre la demande de monnaie et les dites variables est vérifiée pour la plupart de ces pays. Le test d'exclusion des variables de la relation de long-terme nous révèle que toutes ces variables entrent de façon significative dans la relation de cointégration. Ces résultats suggèrent donc aux autorités monétaires, l'importance de tenir compte à la fois du déficit bugétaire et du développement monétaire étranger dans la formulation de la politique monétaire.||Abstract : This paper examines the impact of both public debt and foreign monetary developments (exchange rate and interest rate) on the long-run money demand. The budget déficit is used as a measure of public debt. Five industrial countries are considered, Canada, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. The multivariate cointegration model of Johansen & Juselius (1990) is used to establish the relationship between this tree variables and the money demand. This model indirectly examines two effects, the effect of budget déficits on interest rates and the effect of foreign monetary developments on the interest rates, both through money demand. Evidence of long-run relationship between the money demand and the defined variables are found for almost every country. The long-run exclusion test shows that ail these variables significantly enter into the cointegration relation. This suggests that, in formulating monetary policies, policy makers should take into account the influence of both budget déficit and foreign monetary developments on the money demand.

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El objetivo del presente trabajo es demostrar que, en el corto plazo, es probable que los precios de las viviendas en Lima Metropolitana (en los distritos de La Molina, San Borja, San Isidro y Surco) no tengan relación con sus variables fundamentales (precio de alquileres, índice de construcción, precio de terrenos, tipo de cambio, tasas de interés en soles y dólares y los ingresos). Esto indicaría un desalineamiento temporal del precio respecto de sus variables fundamentales; sin embargo, en el largo plazo sí lo harían. Esta demostración de que en el largo plazo las variables están cointegradas se realizará usando el test de cointegración de Johansen, y mediante el vector de corrección de errores se demostrará que en el corto plazo las variables no están cointegradas. El periodo muestral seleccionado abarca desde 2004Q1 hasta 2014Q3, dado que es el periodo en que se muestra un fuerte crecimiento y disminución del precio de las viviendas. La data ha sido obtenida del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP), la Cámara Peruana de la Construcción (Capeco), el suplemento Urbania del diario El Comercio, la Superintendencia de Banca y Seguros (SBS) y el Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). Se optó por analizar el precio de las viviendas de los distritos de La Molina, San Borja, San Isidro y Surco, debido a la disponibilidad de la data. El resultado del modelo de Johansen muestra que en el largo plazo las variables precio de alquileres, índice de construcción, precio de terrenos, tipo de cambio y los ingresos explican el comportamiento del precio de las viviendas; es decir, las variables están cointegradas. Por el contrario, las variables tasa de interés en soles y dólares no siguen el mismo comportamiento, por lo que no son consideradas para el test de Johansen. Para finalizar, el vector de corrección de errores muestra que, en el corto plazo, dichas variables no están cointegradas.

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Este documento presenta la estimación de la demanda trimestral por emisión monetaria mediante tres técnicas estadísticas, a saber: mínimos cuadrados ordinarios, corrección de errores y vectores autorregresivos. La estimación de la demanda se realizó para el periodo 1987–1997. En general las ecuaciones estimadas presentaron resultados satisfactorios en términos económicos y estadísticos. La capacidad de predicción se verificó con los bajos errores de pronóstico, inferiores al 3% para 1997. Se comprobó la estabilidad de la demanda de corto y largo plazo mediante los estadísticos Cusum y Cusum-Cuadrado, así como con la prueba de cointegración de Johansen.

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The concept of zoonotic hepatitis E in industrialized countries has emerged with the discovery of swine strains of hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotype 3, closely related to human HEV. Different routes of zoonotic HEV transmission have been recognized, including contact with infected pigs. Workers occupationally exposed to swine (WOES) have been considered a risk group for HEV infection, but contradictory results have been reported. In the present study, we searched for anti-HEV IgG in WOES (butchers, slaughterhouse workers, veterinarians and pig farmers; n = 114) and in the general population (n = 804) in order to investigate the potential occupational risk of zoonotic HEV infection in this work group. A significantly higher (p = 0.008) anti-HEV IgG seroprevalence was found in WOES (30.7 %) when compared with the general population (19.9 %). Multivariate analysis showed that having professions with exposure to pigs for more than 16.5 years was a risk factor for being positive for anti-HEV IgG (aOR of 5.4, 95 % CI 1.9-15.6, p = 0.002). To our knowledge, this is the first study on the prevalence of anti-HEV IgG in WOES in Portugal, also showing increased probability for infection in this group.

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Méthodologie: Test de Johansen, Test économétrique de cointégration, Modèle à variable latente