Cambio climático y diversidad de la flora vascular en las montañas tabulares de Guayana.

Una de las posibles consecuencias del calentamiento global es la extinción de especies de alta montaña por migración ascendente de las condiciones ambientales y pérdida de hábitat, fenómeno que, por el momento, ha sido considerado únicamente en montañas templadas y boreales. Este trabajo analiza la misma situación en montañas tropicales y estima el grado de amenaza de la flora vascular de las cimas de las montañas neotropicales de Guayana, al norte de Sudamérica. Del estudio basado en una muestra de 83 especies, entre aproximadamente el 8 y el 33% de las mismas se encuentran en peligro de extinguirse debido a la desaparición de su hábitat. La mayoría de estas especies son endémicas de Guayana, por lo que su desaparición afectaría a la biodiversidad global.

Emerging environmental and weather challenges in outdoor sports

Given the climatic changes around the world and the growing outdoor sports participation, existing guidelines and recommendations for exercising in naturally challenging environments such as heat, cold or altitude, exhibit potential shortcomings. Continuous efforts from sport sciences and exercise physiology communities aim at minimizing the risks of environmental-related illnesses during outdoor sports practices. Despite this, the use of simple weather indices does not permit an accurate estimation of the likelihood of facing thermal illnesses. This provides a critical foundation to modify available human comfort modeling and to integrate bio-meteorological data in order to improve the current guidelines. Although it requires further refinement, there is no doubt that standardizing the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index approach and its application in the field of sport sciences and exercise physiology may help to improve the appropriateness of the current guidelines for outdoor, recreational and competitive sports participation. This review first summarizes the main environmental-related risk factors that are susceptible to increase with recent climate changes when exercising outside and offers recommendations to combat them appropriately. Secondly, we briefly address the recent development of thermal stress models to assess the thermal comfort and physiological responses when practicing outdoor activities in challenging environments.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

El canvi climàtic posa en perill el cafè i el cacau

PER A MOLTES PERSONES, beure cafè i menjar xocolata és un autèntic plaer. Tant les plantes de cafè com les de cacau es cultiven en unes zones molt concretes de la Terra, als cinturons tropicals, i en teoria representen una font de riquesa per als països productors. Tanmateix, la demanda creixent, combinada amb els efectes del canvi climàtic i les desigualtats econòmiques entre productors i consumidors, posen en perill aquests cultius. Així ho indiquen dos estudis publicats a la revista Plos One i un altre a Current Biology, que suggereixen que per mantenir la productivitat actual cal incrementar la diversitat genètica d"aquestes plantes i afavorir un model de comerç just.

Las entidades sub-nacionales en Norteamérica y la lucha contra el cambio climático: desarrollo normativo y vinculación de sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión

[spa] Mientras que en Europa la interdependencia y la dimensión transfronteriza de las cuestiones ligadas al cambio climático ha facilitado una cierta"continentalización" de la gestión de este fenómeno, favorecida por el carácter intergubernamental de las medidas que se adoptan en el marco de la Unión Europea, al otro lado del Atlántico la transversalidad de este mismo fenómeno explica la necesidad de que, ante las limitaciones del marco regional, se pongan en marcha mecanismos que faciliten la intervención no sólo estatal sino también de las entidades sub-nacionales. En este sentido, la ausencia de la acción federal tanto en Estados Unidos como en Canadá ha comportado un mayor desarrollo de la acción de las entidades sub-nacionales, que han tomado el liderazgo en la lucha contra el cambio climático. Son estas medidas las que se han visualizado en el escenario internacional. Ello ha favorecido el establecimiento de mecanismos de coordinación de la acción de estas entidades sub-nacionales en el seno de redes transnacionales, que han ido adquiriendo una mayor relevancia en la implementación del Convenio Marco sobre el Cambio Climático y del Protocolo de Kyoto, particularmente en relación a uno de sus instrumentos, el comercio de los derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero. En este contexto, la futura vinculación de los sistemas de comercio de derechos de emisión de gases de efecto invernadero en Norteamérica con el sistema de la Unión Europea presenta diversos retos de carácter material y formal.

Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Lipídios como Indicadores de Mudanças Climáticas no Passado 1: Biomarcadores Marinhos

The distribution and abundance of specific lipid biomarkers in marine sediments can play an important rule for the reconstruction of past climatic changes. Here, it is shown the use of a widely known paleo Sea Surface Temperature (SST) proxy based on the unsaturation ratio of a suite of long-chain C37 alkenones: the alkenone unsaturation index, U K37'. These compounds are biosynthesised by only a restricted group of prymnesiophyte algae, mostly notably the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi. To ilustrate the importance of the U K37' index as a molecular tool, the correlation between the SST signal derived from the U K37' and other paleoclimatic records examined in a core from the North Atlantic is discussed.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections.

Flash flood evolution in North-Western Mediterranean

The present paper shows an in-depth analysis of the evolution of floods and precipitation in Catalonia for the period 1981-2010. In order to have homogeneous information, and having in mind that not gauge data was available for all the events, neither for all the rivers and stream flows, daily press from a specific newspaper has been systematically analysed for this period. Furthermore a comparison with a longer period starting in 1900 has been done. 219 flood events (mainly flash flood events) have been identified for the period of 30 years (375 starting in 1900), 79 of them were ordinary, 117 of them were extraordinary and 23 of them were catastrophic, being autumn and summer the seasons with the maxima values. 19% of the events caused a total of 110 casualties. 60% of them died when they tried to cross the street or the stream. Factors like the evolution of precipitation, population density and other socio-economical aspects have been considered. The trend analysis shows an increase of 1 flood/decade that probably has been mainly due to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in population density and in land-use and land-cover.

El clima i la producció d'olives a la Catalunya seca: el cas de Cabacés (el Priorat)

[cat] En un context de canvi climàtic cal estudiar les vulnerabilitats del territori a escala local. En aquest treball s'analitza la producció d'oli de qualitat en un indret de la Catalunya seca, Cabacés (el Priorat), i es posa en relació amb la variabilitat climàtica. Els resultats mostren que el clima té una influència important en la producció d'olives, sobretot les temperatures màximes del mes d'abril i les precipitacions del mes més sec, juliol. S'obté un model de regressió múltiple a partir d'aquestes dues variables climàtiques més influents en la producció. No obstant això, els valors del model s'allunyen dels reals a partir de l'any 2003 a causa d'un creixement molt elevat de la producció per l'extensió del reg de suport. Les futures vulnerabilitats no només depenen del canvi climàtic, sinó dels efectes del canvi global, fenomen que també engloba tots aquells canvis en els usos, hàbits i consums del territori.

Quantifying seasonality along a latitudinal gradient: from stream temperature to growth of invasive mosquitofish

Most ecosystems undergo substantial variation over the seasons, ranging from changes in abiotic features, such as temperature, light and precipitation, to changes in species abundance and composition. How seasonality varies along latitudinal gradients is not well known in freshwater ecosystems, despite being very important in predicting the effects of climate change and in helping to advance ecological understanding. Stream temperature is often well correlated with air temperature and influences many ecosystem features such as growth and metabolism of most aquatic organisms. We evaluated the degree of seasonality in ten river mouths along a latitudinal gradient for a set of variables, ranging from air and water temperatures, to physical and chemical properties of water and growth of an invasive fish species (eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki ). Our results show that although most of the variation in air temperature was explained by latitude and season, this was not the case for water features, including temperature, in lowland Mediterranean streams, which depended less on season and much more on local factors. Similarly, although there was evidence of latitude-dependent seasonality in fish growth, the relationship was nonlinear and weak and the significant latitudinal differences in growth rates observed during winter were compensated later in the year and did not result in overall differences in size and growth. Our results suggest that although latitudinal differences in air temperature cascade through properties of freshwater ecosystems, local factors and complex interactions often override the water temperature variation with latitude and might therefore hinder projections of species distribution models and effects of climate change

The effects of depleted, current and elevated growth [CO2] in wheat are modulated by water availability

Drought is the main constraint on wheat yield in Mediterranean conditions. The photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant growth parameters of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum, L. var. durum) were compared at three [CO2] (i.e., depleted 260 ppm, current 400ppm and elevated 700 ppm) in plants subjected to twowater regimes (i.e.,well-wateredWW, and mildwater stress by drought orwater deficit WS), during pre-anthesis, post-anthesis and the end of grain filling. We showed that [CO2] effects on plants are modulated by water availability. Plants at depleted [CO2] showed photosynthetic acclimation (i.e., up-regulation) and reduced plant biomass and Harvest Index, but depleted [CO2] combined with WS has a more negative impact on plants with decreases in C assimilation and biomass. Plants at elevated [CO2] had decreased plant growth and photosynthesis in response to a down-regulation mechanism resulting from a decrease in Rubisco and N content, but plants exposed to a combination of elevated [CO2] and WS were the most negatively affected (e.g., on plant biomass).

Anàlisi territorial de la vulnerabilitat dels recursos hídrics davant del canvi climàtic

En aquest capítol es descriuen els mecanismes que determinen la resposta dels sistemes hidrològics al canvi climàtic en el context de Catalunya i propostes per a determinar-ne la vulnerabilitat

Impacte sobre els peixos continentals

Capítol 18 del llibre 'Aigua i canvi climàtic: diagnosi dels impactes previstos a Catalunya: 3r Conveni Agència Catalana de l’Aigua-Fundació Nova Cultura de l’Aigua' que es refereix a l’impacte del canvi climàtic en peixos continentals

Projeccions climàtiques per a Catalunya

Aquest capítol té com a objectiu donar respostes a les qüestions següents: d'una banda, descriure projeccions climàtiques més detallades per a Catalunya i, d’altra banda, donar aquestes projeccions per a escenaris temporals més immediats. Atès que no es tractava en aquest informe de generar nous resultats com a conseqüència de nova activitat investigadora, la metodologia seguida ha estat, com en els capítols anteriors, la revisió bibliogràfica i documental d’articles i informes publicats fins avui. En concret, el principal document que s’ha utilitzat és l’informe titulat Generación de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático para España (INM, 2007), que ha estat elaborat recentment per l'Institut Nacional de Meteorologia espanyol (actualment, Agència Estatal de Meteorologia, AEMET). Les principals tècniques de regionalització i els resultats més destacats d’aquest document es resumiranen els propers apartats. També hem emprat altres articles publicats en revistes científiques, en molts casos derivats del projecte Prudence, que permeten deduir algun resultat aplicable a Catalunya. Finalment, s’ha fet l'esforç d’integrar tota la informació obtinguda sobre les projeccions climàtiques a diferents escales, per resumir-la en un quadre que indiqui quins són els rangs esperats d'augment de la temperatura i de canvis de la precipitació, per a Catalunya i en tres àrees diferenciades (litoral, interior i Pirineu). En el mateix quadre donem valors corresponents a finals del segle xxi i, també, per al primer terç d'aquest segle. Avancem ja ara que l'elaboració d'aquest resum no ha seguit una metodologia quantitativa o estadística, sinó que s'ha fetintegrant de manera qualitativa (i, per tant, no exempta d’una certa subjectivitat) tot el coneixement dels autors, que correspon en principi a l’estat de la qüestió en cercles científics